DO YOUR JOB

Yahoo Sports had the following report on the post-game rift between an All-Star pitcher and asports reporter:

Houston Astros pitcher Justin Verlander still isn’t over his former team’s writers. Verlander had a Detroit Free Press writer banned from the Astros clubhouse following Verlander’s loss to the Detroit Tigers on Wednesday, according to the Detroit Free Press.

Following the contest, a 2-1 win by the Tigers, a writer from the Detroit Free Press attempted to enter the Astros clubhouse with the rest of the media. When that writer got to the clubhouse, (he) were told (he) could not enter. Three Astros' security guards were present to make sure the writer was not able to get into the clubhouse.

Verlander told the Astros he would not do his general media session if the reporter from the Detroit Free Press was in the clubhouse.

Once Verlander wrapped up his conversation with the media, the Astros let the Detroit writer into the clubhouse. The writer approached Verlander and asked about Wednesday’s game, but Verlander walked away after telling the reporter “I’m not answering your questions.”

It’s unclear why Verlander was upset with the writer. It’s possible a tweet was to blame. Following the game, the Detroit Free Press sent out a snarky tweet about Verlander picking up the loss. (It said Verlander pitched the Tigers to a 2-1 victory. Verlander only gave up two hits; solo home runs.)

The headline on the actual article and the article itself are totally normal, and makes no snarky reference to Verlander pitching the Tigers to victory. It’s possible the writer of that article had nothing to do with that tweet.

On Thursday, Verlander addressed the issue, saying he did not speak to the reporter due to “unethical behavior in the past.”

The Free Press will protest the issue to Major League Baseball and the Astros. Restricting a member of the press from a clubhouse goes against the mission of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

>>>> I have many problems here. 

 

First, MLB Rules with Baseball Writers Association and the CBA provide that BWAA credentialed sports writers shall have access to the clubhouse 10 minutes after the end of the game and players must be available to conduct interviews. The latter has not been strictly enforced if the player was getting trainer room treatment or was a pud hiding in another area of the clubhouse. The 10 minute rule is clear and enforced in the past. The Astros intentionally violated that rule. The commissioner can fine the team. 

 

Second, Verlander directing his team officials to violate a rule is problematic. When do team officials work for a player? It is the other way around. Since Verlander intentionally violated the rules, he could be suspended or fined by the Commissioner (including invoking the best interests of baseball authority since the press represents the fans). 

 

Third, Verlander could not speak to the reporter during the 10 minute Q&A period (we see that all the time - - - the players look like jerks, but can refuse to answer a question). Even if he shuts out the Detroit reporter, he is there to take down his other answers about the game. By barring him from the clubhouse, the Astros and Verlander took away the reporter's right to get information for his game story.

Fourth, and most important, this story misses THE REAL story. An All-Star player just slandered a reporter for "unethical behavior."  Why was there no follow-up on what Verlander meant and/or the details of what was the questionable behavior. This makes the rest of the sports reporters look weak and captive to the whims of sports teams. 

It is true that professional journalism is having a hard time maintaining its position as the Fourth Estate, an important vessel for truth and accuracy of daily news events. The internet and social media has made blabbering idiots the de facto voices of information (not fact or truth). In the vast majority of cases, there is no adversarial relationship between a beat reporter and the team he or she covers. But teams now see themselves as media competitors since they or their leagues have their own web sites and networks feeding fans information. Teams, like the Bears, severely restrict access and what beat reporters can say during practices. It is a horrible trend. All journalism is important to independently and accurately capture facts for history.

Verlander should have done his contractual job and listened to questions from all credentialed reporters, whether he liked it or not. The sports reporters after hearing Verlander's excuse, should have demanded the truth about his charge of unethical behavior. That is the real lost news story in this entire event. Everybody should do their job.

A QUICK CHANGE

Finding a new job in baseball is usually hard. Unless, you have a proven track record of success.

The Red Sox’ stunning announcement that Dave Dombrowski was hired as new President of baseball operations  is still sinking in for many, but further changes figure to be on the way in Boston, MLBTR summarizes.

Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Press spoke to Dombrowski and tweets that the new Boston president believes he will hire a GM to work underneath him. Bob Nightengale of USA Today Sports reports that former Braves GM Frank Wren, who worked with Dombrowski in the Marlins and Expos front offices in the 1980s and 1990s, is a leading candidate for the position.

Wren’s more traditional background of scouting would seemingly align well with Dombrowski’s strengths, as opposed to a more analytical GM like Ben Cherington, who passed on the opportunity to remain on board as the Red Sox’ GM following the addition of Dombrowski. There’s been speculation about Jerry Dipoto, who is working with the Sox on a temporary basis at the moment, but he, too, has a more analytical slant and wasn’t hired by Dombrowski.

When the Braves hired John Hart  as president of baseball operations, he fired Wren.  Currently,  the Braves have elected to deploy a president but no GM, as they currently do not have one in place.

The 57-year-old Wren’s front office experience dates back to the mid-1980s, and he’s worked with the Orioles in addition to the previously mentioned Expos, Marlins and Braves.

Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe reports  that he finds it difficult to imagine any team owned by John Henry would completely abandon analytics, noting that there will have to be a balance in place. One can imagine that even in the event of a more traditional hire in the GM department, Dombrowski may bring in some new analysts or, at the very least, make an effort to retain some of Cherington’s more analytically inclined lieutenants. Of course, many that previously worked underneath Cherington may elect to seek employment elsewhere as well.

The whole concept of a president of baseball operations is new. Many teams have started to divide functions: club business is separated from daily baseball activities. This sets up the possibility of two distinct feudal power bases. The president of baseball operations sits on a committee with the president of business operations and the owner to discuss general policies and goals. 

This does add layers of bureaucracy and executives. The "business" of baseball is running a team and winning (i.e. having good fan attendance). The general manager used to control all aspects of the club: from ticket sales, advertising, sponsorships, to hiring staff, reviewing scouting reports, drafting and trading for players. Now, in the age of analytics and specialization, the GM's duties have been pared back. 

In some situations, the president of baseball operations is a figure head title to move an ineffective GM upstairs to allow a better manager run a team. It is a way to keep a knowledgeable asset from taking his consultancy skills and team knowledge to other clubs. But in Dombrowski's case, the Red Sox are hiring a fully knowledgeable general manager with a great track record.

Some people were surprised that the Tigers let Dombrowski go, but his contract was not going to be renewed by ownership. The Tigers spent like a big market team in order to get its elderly owner a World Series title. But despite the spending and talent, the Tigers have never reached that goal. And that one goal fell squarely on Dombrowski's head. 

The Red Sox have had a tailspinning bad season. Dombrowski has experience in tearing down and rebuilding franchises, which is something the Red Sox need to do in order to get competitive in the strong AL East. Boston's quick hire of Dombrowski makes great sense.

PRICE WAS HIGH

The Toronto Blue Jays went all in for David Price, trading three left handed prospects for the rental pitcher.

The marquee piece coming in return is top Blue Jays prospect Daniel Norris and two other lefties, Jairo Labourt, and Matt Boyd.

Price has pitched to a 2.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 146 innings on the year. That puts him on pace for a 200+ inning campaign with excellent results, Since his first full season in the big leagues, in 2010, Price has rated hird in the majors among all starters in terms of fWAR, fourth in innings (1,224), and tenth in ERA (3.01)  among qualifying starters. He has struck out 8.6 and walked 2.2 batters per nine innings in that span.

The Blue Jays are taking the remaining $7 million salary and lose the chance for a draft pick because they can't give a qualifying offer to Price as he hits the free agent market. Price will be the prize in this season's free agent derby.

Toronto's prospects are good.  Norris was 18th best prospect on Baseball America’s mid-season round-up. He’s a 22-year-old with loud stuff but sometimes-shaky control, as evidenced by his seventeen walks in thirty big league innings. But he’s got plenty of upside, obviously, particularly if he can harness his offerings. Over 90 2/3 frames at Triple-A this year, Norris owns a 4.27 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. But he was much better last year, putting up double-digit K/9 numbers and allowing only 3.1 walks per nine en route to a 2.53 earned run mark in 124 1/3 minor league innings.

Labourt, 21, is working at the High-A level and ranks 19th on MLB.com’s prospect list of his now-former club’s prospects. The large-bodied sinkerballer could become a “future workhorse,” says MLB.com, though he’s scuffled somewhat this year. Over 80 1/3 innings, Labourt owns a 4.59 ERA with 7.8 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9.

The 24-year-old Boyd has spent most of the year in the high minors after a brief (and rough) two-start stint in the majors. He earned the 11th spot on MLB.com’s Toronto board. He doesn’t have a huge arm, but excels with feel, command, and deception.

On a value basis, is Price worth 3.0 WAR to the Jays for the remainder of the season? That would assume the three prospect pitchers combined would give the Jays replacement value this season. Norris has only a 0.2 WAR in limited work. Price, in 21 Tiger starts, is 9-4, 2.53 ERA, 1.110 WHIP and 3.5 WAR. He has a career 26.7 WAR which averages out to about 4.0 WAR per season. Last year he was 4.6 WAR, then prior two years 2.8 and 4.6.  If we average the last three years, his average WAR is 4.77. 4.77 minus 3.5 (current) equals a projected balance of 2015 WAR of 1.27.

If one values a player based upon $/WAR(2014 off season median was $6 million/win), then the Jays should expect $7.62 million worth of production from Price for the rest of the season (bonus with post season play). So from Toronto's perspective, Price is reasonably valued for the projected performance for the rest of this season.

It means that the Blue Jays gave up three pitchers controllable for the next five years for one very good starter's next 10 starts.

SELLER'S MARKET

This year will be a Seller's market. With so much divisional parity, no club except a few, will think they cannot get into the wild card race if the team goes on a 10 game winning streak.

So most pundits believe that there will be very few Sellers this year. Which means Sellers will control the market, and ask for more in return than normal.  Beyond the question on how desperate teams will be to improve before the deadline, which Seller could surprise.

The Tigers. The preseason AL Central champ may be the best Seller of the year. If management decides to pull the plug on their pending free agents. But even then, rentals don't get big prospect returns as teams have begun hoarding their prospects and cheap, controllable assets.

At the All-Star break, the Tigers are currently sitting nine games out of first place. The pesky Royals continue to win. Rumors in Detroit indicate the Tigers  may sell at the trade deadline despite general manager Dave Dombrowski's comments to the contrary. 

The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo believes a trade involving pending free agency ace lefty David Price is not out of the question if the Tigers do decide to start rebuilding for the future. Price would be the best pitcher available, with Jeff Samardzija second. 

The Tigers have left big money pitchers go in the recent past. There is no indication that ownership is going to commit $200 million to Price. So the question is, do the Tigers win it this year with Price? The current odds seem to say no. Hence, the trade speculation.

Every team in contention is looking to upgrade their pitching staffs. Price would be an immediate upgrade to any rotation. One would expect the Tigers to ask for at least three prime prospects for Price, including a major league ready starting pitcher. Any team trading for Price may think about asking for an extension as part of the deal, which puts big market teams like Yankees, Dodgers, Blue Jays at the table.

The price may be less for Samardzija, who has repeatedly stated he wants to get to free agency to test his market value. The White Sox are less interested in acquiring a replacement starting pitcher for the Shark so there may be more flexibility in dealing with the White Sox.

The Tigers also have three other pending free agents that could be highly prized in this trade market: Yoenis Cespedes, Joakim Soria and Rajai Davis.  

If Rick Hahn raises the white flag, he could get rid of equally valuable chips in Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche and one of his lefty relievers, Zach Duke or Dan Jennings.

NEW ARMS RACE

With Max Scherzer out of Detroit, the White Sox rotation clearly has closed the talent gap with Detroit.

The Tigers projected rotation is:

1. David Price, 6.1 WAR in the last year before free agency.
2. Justin Verlander, has lost velocity and ERA shot up last season.
3. Anibal Sanchez, injury prone, only 21 starts last season.
4. Alfredo Simon, who had one break out year for the Reds.
5. Shane Greene, acquired from the Yankees has only made 14 starts in career.

The White Sox counter with this rotation:

1. Chris Sale, a Cy Young candidate with overpowering stuff.
2. Jeff Samardzija, an innings eater who can be a steady influence.
3. Carlos Quintana, the most underrated starter in the AL last season.
4. John Danks, who is still slowly coming back from arm issues.
5. Hector Noesi (caretaker) until Carlos Rodon is called up from AAA with his electric stuff.

The staffs are very comparable. Price and Sale are legitimate aces. Samardizja is a more consistent pitcher than Verlander at this point. Quintana over Sanchez on health concerns. Simon may be slightly better than Danks, depending if his Reds year is no fluke. And Rodon is the real deal.

PULLING THE TRIGGER

Everyone knew the Yankees were in the market for a shortstop replacement. We thought that the Cubs would be an ample trading partner for the Yankees. For whatever reason, nothing gelled in that regard because the Yankees apparently found their replacement middle infielder.

The Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius from the Diamondbacks in a three way trade with Tigers. Gregoriusis a typical good glove weak bat shortstop. But he has major league experience.

The Tigers get a fifth starter in pitcher Shane Green. In his short career, he is about an average major league starter which is okay in the back of a deep rotation.

The Diamondbacks get two players: lefty Robbie Ray, who last year posted a 1.59 ERA through is first five starts at Triple-A, with a 21/5 K/BB ratio in 28 innings, showing his promise, but he is not a flawless prospect, and shortstop Domingo Leyba from the Tigers. He’s only 19 and hasn’t played above A-ball, but he hit very well across two levels in 67 games last season. In leagues in which he was very young.

Apparently, the Yankees were eager to get a deal to solidify their shortstop position before the winter meetings. If the Cubs were inclined to trade a surplus middle infielder to a team that really needed one, this could be a missed opportunity.

TEAMS IN PLAY

This off-season, there have been a few clear signals from teams on the verge of being highly competitive.

The Angels and Phillies have strongly indicated that they will be sitting out this free agent market. They do not want to add to existing high payrolls. In fact, they would like to shed some high cost talent. The Phillies are willing to trade anyone on their roster, including Cole Hammels, for the right deal (at least three top prospects). The Dodgers also seem to want to pare back their excess outfield talent under new team President Friedman.

The Mariners, Red Sox, Yankees and Rangers appear poised to make a run at bolstering their teams. The Rangers have a protected top draft pick so they could have their cake and it eat it to by signing a top free agent (who refused a qualifying offer). Likewise, the Tigers will get at least one supplemental first round pick for losing a quality free agent to another team (Max Scherzer). The Yankees have been playing possum this off-season, which means that they will make a run at the top guys. The Red Sox always seem to be circling for an acquisition.

The national media is convinced the Cubs will make a splash, but I don't think so. The Cubs are still filling the kiddy pool with water.

The Mariners have been spending money in recent years, but have not come to critical mass. The rumor is that the team will go after Hanley Ramirez and Victor Martinez, two older players, which means that 2015 projects to an "all in" season for Seattle. Detroit is in a similar position: so close, yet so far away from that desperate championship. If the Tigers lose Martinez and Scherzer, then they will have to replace a DH and SP of like quality (David Price may be part of that answer).

If one looks for a dark horse team to fly under the radar and pick up a "name" this off-season, it could be the Cardinals. With SP Kyle Lohse being paid only $500,000 at the end of a front loaded contract, the Redbirds actually have his "real value" plus another SP budget slot to pay a top tier FA $20 million plus.

TURNER

Once one of the best Tiger pitching prospects, Jacob Turner wound up in a trade to the Marlins, who for head-scratching reasons, put him on waivers to clear a 40 man roster spot.

Just as bizarre, the woeful Rockies, in need of pitching, passed on Turner. The Cubs, next in line, put in a waiver claim. And apparently, got the young, prized pitcher for two minor leaguers.

The Tribune’s Paul Sullivan reports that two Class-A pitchers will be headed to the Marlins, and Keith Law follows up by saying hat it’ll be a pair of relievers, neither of whom is well-regarded.

Turner, 23, is a former first-round pick of the Tigers, and it wasn’t long ago that he was regarded as one of baseball’s top prospects. Acquired by Miami as the centerpiece to 2012′s Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante deal with Detroit, Turner has struggled with the Marlins and was designated for assignment because he is out of minor league options. While the Marlins reportedly had lost patience with Turner after his struggles in both the rotation and the bullpen, the move is a curious one for a team that typically doesn’t spend much; cost-controllable starters with this type of upside are hard to come by, and Turner’s rotation spot will reportedly be filled by journeyman Brad Penny,  making this decision a puzzling one, to say the least, according to MLBTR.

Though Turner’s ERA jumped from 3.74 last year (in 118 innings) to 5.97 in this year’s 78 1/3 innings, Turner’s K/9 rate, swinging strike rate and average fastball velocity have all increased (though the velocity is likely tied somewhat to his eventual transition to the bullpen). Meanwhile, his BB/9 rate has dipped from 4.1 to 2.6. He’s also seen his ground-ball rate spike from a solid 45.7 percent to a strong 51.3 percent this season.

Turner, who signed a Major League deal out of the draft (before the CBA banned such contracts), has a $1MM option for next season and can be controlled via arbitration once he has accumulated three years of Major League service. He’s controllable through at least the 2018 season for the Cubs.

From the Cubs 2015 prospective, Turner may fall into the fifth starter role or long relief. Since the Cubs need young starting pitching, one will think that the Cubs will hope Turner can be an effective starter in spring training.

THE PRICE IS LOW

Jed Hoyer was on the sportscasts late last week after the trade deadline. He continued to mutter the mantra that "hopefully" the Cubs won't be sellers next year; that "hopefully" their top prospects will be reaching the majors soon; and "hopefully" things will fall into place so they can go out and get pitching a few years afterward.

Hope does not float a boat.

The trade of two major leaguers, Russell and Bonifacio, for a Class A catcher and CASH makes sense only if you believe David Kaplan's statement that the Cubs are tied by their loan covenants to only have a payroll of 110 percent of attendance revenue. The trade was a salary dump and a cash infusion for the Cubs. However, other reports indicate it was the Cubs who gave Atlanta a million dollars to "get the prospect they wanted." (If so, the move would be double the amount owed Russell and Bonifacio for the rest of the season, so the Braves get two major leaguers for free (?) What kind of deal is that for the Cubs?).  Putting the moves for the past several seasons, and salary dumps together, there is more circumstantial evidence that the Cubs do not have the fiscal pieces to make any significant changes to the ball club. One caveat to this analysis is that the Cubs sported a $144 million payroll at peak attendance; but now payroll has been slashed in half (but attendance has not). If the lenders are pressing loan covenants on the team, that means the bankers are not comfortable with their loan risk, even if the club is current in its payments.

Cubs peak attendance was around 3.2 million fans. Current projects show this season to be close to 2.4 million. That is a 25 percent drop under Ricketts ownership. Using the Cubs own internal revenue number per fan attending games, the Cubs lose $56 million in revenue this year from the peak years.

But still, at 2.4 million fans at an average face ticket price of $35 million, the payroll budget would still be around $92 million, and not at its current $75 million level. The "savings" has to go somewhere - - - to debt service or to the ever-changing Wrigley renovation plans.

There is also conflicting information on the broadcast fees. The Tribune has reported that the old WGN-TV deal paid the Cubs $250,000 per game while Comcast pays $500,000 per game. Earlier reports had Comcast only paying $350,000 per game. Even if the Cubs wanted to raise the rights fees $100,000 a WGN contest, that is only maybe another $5 million per season. With all the additional signage in Wrigley, advertising executives speculate that it will only bring in perhaps $10 to $14 million in new revenue. So basically, the Cubs cannot make up lost attendance revenue from new broadcast fees or additional Wrigley advertising.

And it appears despite all the "hope" messages, the financial situation is not going to change. The real problem is that people will not commit to a season of premium major league prices for minor league talent. The Cubs front office is positioning itself to have the playing field occupied by players at the major league minimum salary levels in half of those positions (LF, CF, 3B, 2B). A team dominated by rookie minimum salary prospects is the definition of a struggling small market team.

If we assume that the debt and ownership structure prevents the Cubs from operating like a real baseball team, then Ricketts is solely blame for accepting those terms. It also shows that if the payroll is so fixed that the team cannot truly make deals to bring in high quality players like David Price because their salaries breach a loan agreement, then the franchise is in quicksand.

Tampa Bay gave away Price to the Tigers.

The Tigers acquired David Price from the Rays by trading Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson  to the Mariners, with Nick Franklin (from Seattle) and Drew Smyly (from Detroit) heading to Tampa. Minor league shortstop Willy Adames is also going to Tampa from Detroit in the deal

MLBTR notes that the move brings and end to near-ceaseless speculation regarding the now-former Rays lefty, who has been one of the game’s best pitchers in recent seasons. Still only 28, Price is under control for one more season through arbitration, though he will certainly not come cheap.

Playing this year on a $14 million salary, Price will be in line for a big raise next year. Of course, one key element of his value lies in the fact that his new club will have an opportunity to explore an extension. The reason that Price figures to draw a big salary next year is obvious: he has continued to be outstanding. At present, he owns a 3.11 ERA with a remarkable 10.0 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9 over 170 2/3 innings.

The return for the Rays is not particularly splashy, but delivers obvious value. Smyly, 25, was outstanding last year as a reliever and has since converted into a solid starting option. He carries a 3.77 ERA through 100 1/3 innings, with 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 and a 36.9% ground ball rate. While his strikeout numbers are down since moving to the rotation, he can be controlled through 2018.

The 23-year-old Franklin, meanwhile, seemed without a future in Seattle after the club added Robinson Cano. Though he has spent time at both short and second, many observers believe he is better suited for the keystone going forward. He had a solid 2013 at the MLB level (.225/.303/.382 in 412 plate appearances), and though his numbers were off this year in limited action, Franklin has continued to swing a big stick against Triple-A pitchers.

Then, there is Adames, who could be something of a wild card in the deal. Just 18, he has a promising .269/.346/.428 slash line through 400 plate appearances at the low-A level this year. He entered the year as Baseball America’s 30th-ranked Tigers prospect, but appears to be raising eyebrows around the game.

Seattle  managed to address its center field need without giving up an indispensable prospects of the future. In fact, the 27-year-old Jackson will be at least a mid-term piece for Seattle. He is playing on a $6MM salary this year before hitting arbitration for the final time. He currently sports a .270/.330/.397 line that is approximately league average (as it was last year). With solid contributions in the field and on the bases, the Marineres believe he is certainly an above-average big league starter.

The Rays were still in playoff striking distance when the trade was made, signaling a white flag moment for the team. The Rays could have kept Price and traded him in the off-season. The only upside of the trade for Tampa is that they got three players who they can control and manage salary effectively for the next few years.

But Detroit now has a powerhouse post-season pitching staff, anchored now by the last THREE Cy Young Award Winners. It is a trade like this that moves the fan interest needle to HIGH. Clearly, based on the players moved, the Cubs had enough prospects and bodies to acquire Price from Tampa, but the Cubs (being perpetual sellers) were not even in any reported trade conversation. If the Cubs cannot make blockbuster deals for major league stars now, what is going to change this off-season to make it happen?

AS BAD AS IT GETS

On the Cubs three-way at second base, the platoon of Bonifacio, Valbuena and Barney has left Mr. Fife out in the cold. He is becoming the odd man odd in this rotation. He made an error. He is hitting weakly. He is leaving runners in scoring position. He is the new Mike Fontenot.

It just shows how quickly a hustling, likeable player can fall from grace. It is no clearer than when you compare the situation to the Tigers, who are desperate for middle infield help due to injuries.

MLBTR tells the tale of the Tigers search for a short term shortstop. The Tigers' search for a replacement at shortstop led them to ask 46-year-old Omar Vizquel if he was interested in making a comeback, reported Paul Hoynes in the Cleveland Plain Dealer.  "They asked me if I'd like to come and take some grounders," said Vizquel. "I said, 'No, I've been retired for two years.'" This bodes badly for Barney and the Cubs. If the Tigers believe a 46-year retired shortstop is a better option than Barney, Barney has no trade value this year for the Cubs.

GOOD . . . BUT THAT GOOD?

SI.com reports on the details on Miguel Cabrera's record setting contract extension with the Tigers:

Being spurned by reigning AL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer hasn’t reined in the Tigers’ desire to spend big. On Thursday, they reached an agreement with two-time AL MVP winner Miguel Cabrera on an eight-year extension running through 2023, worth roughly $248 million.  While there’s little doubt that the 30-year-old slugger (31 on April 18) is the best hitter in baseball right now, this record-setting contract locks in what’s likely to be his decline phase at a fairly steep price.


Scherzer turned down a Tiger offer of a reported $144 million. Apparently, that budget line will pay for about half of Cabrera's new deal. Cabrera was owed $44 million remaining on his current deal (eight years, $152.3 million), so he is now guaranteed a total of $292 million over the next 10 years, surpassing Alex Rodriguez’s 10-year, $275 million deal.

The $31 million average annual value over the new portion of the deal eclipses the $30.7 million of pitching ace Clayton Kershaw's own contract extension. Cabrera has a pair of vested optionsvalued at $30 million apiece tacked onto the end of the deal.

During his Tigers tenure, Cabrera has won three straight batting titles, led the league in OBP three times and in slugging percentage twice, all while helping the Tigers to three straight AL Central flags. He won the Triple Crown in 2012, the first player to do so since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967.

In his tenure with Detroit, he has led the league in hitting; his .327 batting average, .588 slugging percentage, 163 OPS+, 229 doubles, 227 homers and 737 RBI are all MLB highs, with the on-base percentages of Joey Votto (.421) and Joe Mauer (.411) the only ones surpassing his .407. He hasn’t led the league in Wins Above Replacement at any time since the trade thanks to below-average defense, but his 36.4 WAR across that span is second only to Albert Pujols’ 38.3.

But giving a 30 year old player nearly $300 million for the back end of his career in the new non-PED era really a good idea?

One can say that owners never learn their lessons about spending like drunken sailors. Very recent examples in the Angels roster, Pujols and Hamilton, have started to seriously break down after signing large megadeals. A-Rod was the poster boy for not signing expensive long term deals, that even the rolling in money Yankees could not get rid of him. 

It helps that the Tigers are owned by an old pizza billionaire who wants to win at any cost a championship.

It guarantees Cabrera will be a Tiger for life. It guarantees Cabrera and his family will have generational wealth. In the short term, it may keep the Tigers on track to win another AL Central crown. But long term, the massive amount of salary invested in one player will come back to hurt the team. Even the Cubs new front office felt the yoke of the Soriano contract for many years, including this year's final dead money payment. The Cubs have used the past payroll errors to justify a total rebuild of the team with young, contract friendly players.

A TIGER IN THE HOUSE

MLBTR reports that Tigers executive Scott Reid is scouting Cubs outfielder Nate Schierholtz and infielder Darwin Barney. Bruce Levine reports that the Cubs would be looking for pitching in return. The Tigers have lost outfielder Andy Dirks and shortstop Jose Igleias for the year due to serious injuries.

Barney has played shortstop, and he recently said he would be comfortable to return to that position. He played one game at short when Castro was hurt this spring. He currently is the second shortstop on the team's depth chart.

In return, the Cubs would be looking for at least one major league ready player, like LHP Ian Krol and pitching prospects. 

Tigers Top Ten prospects include Jonathan Crawford (#5), Jake Thompson (#4) and Robbie Ray (#2) but it is doubtful the Tigers front office will part with any of them for a short term fix in the outfield and shortstop.

AL CENTRAL PREVIEW

The Chicago White Sox had a disappointing 2013 campaign. But the team has re-tooled their line up for 2014, but how does it stack up against the AL Central. ESPN has an early spring training preview of the lineups:

Detroit

Pros: still has best hitter in game (Cabrera); added Kinsler to bolster 2B
Cons: new manager (Ausmus); Fielder traded to Rangers.

Projected lineup 
Austin Jackson, CF
Ian Kinsler, 2B
Miguel Cabrera, 1B 
Victor Martinez, DH
Torii Hunter, RF
Andy Dirks, LF
Nick Castellanos, 3B 
Alex Avila, C
Jose Igesias, SS 

The question remains whether the Tigers can overcome the loss of Fielder's production by
good years from Castellanos at third and Kinsler at second. The team has aging veterans in Martinez and Hunter in the middle of the order. Dirks appears to be a platoon candidate in left.

This lineup does not appear to be as strong as last season.

Cleveland


Pros: Santana poised for a break out season; 
Cons: questions about outfield production

Projected lineup 
Michael Bourn, CF
Nick Swisher, 1B
Jason Kipnis, 2B
Carlos Santana, DH 
Michael Brantley, LF
Yan Gomes, C
Asdrubal Cabrera, SS
David Murphy, RF
Lonnie Chisenhall, 3B

The top of the order appears to be fine. The bottom is of a concern. If Chisenhall does not make a big contribution, Santana could move to third and open a spot for Ryan Raburn.

Consistent run production is going to be the issue with this lineup.


Kansas City


Pros: speed at the top of the lineup;
Cons: lack of distributed power in the lineup.

Projected lineup
Norichika Aoki, RF
Alex Gordon, LF 
Eric Hosmer, 1B
Billy Butler, DH
Salvador Perez, C
Omar Infante, 2B 
Mike Moustakas, 3B
Lorenzo Cain, CF
Alcides Escobar, SS 

There is plenty of speed on the team to manufacture runs, if batters can get on base. This is another team of relative unknowns playing in a small market town who have to overperform in order to get noticed.

Minnesota

Pros: The minors have upcoming talent in Miguel Sano and Bryon Buxton.
Cons: Aging Mauer now at first, no lead off hitter.

Projected lineup
Alex Presley, CF 
Brian Dozier, 2B 
Joe Mauer, 1B
Josh Willingham, LF
 Oswaldo Arcia, RF
 Jason Kubel, DH
 Josmil Pinto, C
 Trevor Plouffe, 3B
 Pedro Florimon, SS

Mauer is still the team's best hitter, but there is no protection behind him. Kubel is a non-roster invitee so that shows the lack of major league depth since he will probably start as the team's DH. If Pinto does not pan, the team signed veteran Kurt Suzuki as back up. The Twins are a team in hard transition. It appears the Twins will fall to the bottom of the division.

Chicago

Pros: Added potential impact players in Eaton, Abreu and Garcia since last opening day;
Cons: the infield is in flux

Projected lineup
Adam Eaton, CF 
Alejandro De Aza, LF
Jose Abreu, 1B 
Adam Dunn, DH
Avisail Garcia, RF
Alexi Ramirez, SS
Gordon Beckham, 2B
 Matt Davidson, 3B
 Josh Phegley, C

Eaton was acquired to lead off, and play a quality defensive CF. De Aza was the best outfielder on the team last season, but he will probably platoon in left with Dayan Viciedo, who has been disappointing on offense. Ramirez and Beckham regressed last season, and third base is still an open wound. Rookie Matt Davidson could win the job, but it is probable that Conor Gillaspie will continue to place hold the position. Dunn will platoon with Paul Konerko at DH which could improve the production at that slot.

None of the lineups go more than five deep in good hitters. None of the lineups blows away the competition.  There is so much uncertainty with these teams going through transition, it could be a wild open race decided by the quality of pitching staffs.

GM DEFENDS TRADE

The Detroit Tigers trade of Doug Fister to the Nationals has been almost universally panned in the media. However, the Tiger GM puts the move into perspective, as it gave some salary relief, allowed the team to sign closer Joe Nathan, and to open up positions for young pitchers on their staff.



CBS Detroit reported that Tiger General Manager Dave Dombrowski knows many people will not like the Fister trade.  Fister filled a key role in the 2013 Detroit Tigers rotation, one of the undisputed best in baseball. Now Fister, who won 14 games and recorded a 3.67 ERA over 208.2 innings.

In return the Tigers acquired starting pitching prospect Robbie Ray, left-handed relief pitcher Ian Krol and utility man Steve Lombardozzi.

“You’re always prepared when you trade the known for the unknown that people in general don’t like those type of moves,” Dombrowski said. “For us, we end up in a position where we get a quality young left-handed pitcher in Robbie Ray but also very close to the major leagues at this point, just sitting on the doorstep ready to step and pitch at the big-league level; a quality young left-handed reliever who’s ready to be one of our lefties in the bullpen right now, projects to be a No. 1 type of lefty; and really one of the best utility players in baseball that can help us at second, short, outfield.”

As solid as Fister pitched for the Tigers, Dombrowski essentially said Detroit could still have a great rotation without him because of the other young pitchers already on the team.

“We feel our starting depth at this time allowed us to make the deal to move Drew Smyly into the rotation,” Dombrowski said. “We think Rick Porcello’s ready to assume more of a role as the No. 4 starter and give us in turn a guy like Robbie Ray who we think has a chance to be a very fine Major League pitcher sitting in Triple-A ready to help out in the near future.”

Smyly’s 2.37 ERA through 63 appearances made him by far one of the most effective relievers for the Tigers in 2013. Porcello, who worked in the No. 5 slot, won 13 games and recorded a 4.32 ERA over 177 innings.

At least Dombrowski thought through a plan before pulling the trigger. Other reports indicate that he did not openly market Fister to other clubs, so there may have been a better deal out there. There is some merit to open a space for a pitcher in one's system who is ready to make the transition to the majors like Smyly. And getting two quality left handed pitchers in a trade for one veteran is usually hailed as a good move. As with all trades, time will tell if it was successful.

TIGERS TRADE

The Tigers continue to make moves this off-season. In another big trade, the team sent  right-hander  Doug Fister  to the Nationals in exchange for pitching prospect Robbie Ray,  utility infielder Steve Lombardozzi and southpaw reliever Ian Krol. 

The Nationals were one of the teams rumored to be on the Jeff Samardzija trade hunt. And I speculated that Krol could have been part of the package for the Shark. But the Tigers pulled the trigger first.

Fister had a very good season. He went 14-9, 3.67 ERA, 1.308 WHIP and 4.1 WAR. He solidifies the Nationals rotation.

The Tigers add some young arms and depth in the infield.  Ray is a 22-year-old southpaw who was a consensus top-ten prospect in the Washington organization. The 12th rounder signed for above slot in 2010, and rose to the Double-A level last year in his age-21 campaign, notching 58 innings of 3.72 ERA ball at Harrisburg where he went 5-2, with a 1.328  WHIP. Krol, also 22,  is a young, left-handed reliever who showed a power fastball in his jump to the bigs last year. For the Nats, he went 2-1, 3.95 ERA, 1.317 WHIP and  0.1 WAR.

Lombardozzi, 25, plays mostly second base. He hit .259 last year, with 2 HR, 22 RBI, .278 OBP, 4 SB. He appears to be insurance/bench player behind newly acquired Ian Kinsler.

Many people believe that the Nationals got the better deal, but that may be in the short run. The Tigers received two quality young left handed pitchers in the deal.

If the Cubs made the same deal with the Nationals for Samardzija, fans would have been happy with the results, because even Lombardozzi would be an offensive upgrade over Darwin Barney at second base.

BOMBSHELL TRADE

It is quite stunning. There were ripples in the off-season market that more teams would seek to improve their clubs by trades than by signing expensive free agents. But two top contending AL teams swinging a big deal before the Winter Meetings is rare.

The Tigers traded Prince Fielder and $30 million in salary relief to the Rangers for Ian Kinsler. The Tigers save $76 million in Fielder's contract as a result, and get a top tier second baseman. It may open a spot to move Miguel Cabrera to first base to cut down on defensive strain on Cabrera's nagging injury history. The Rangers remove a crowded infield picture and add a power bat to their line up.

The Tigers have freed up salary budget, probably to make a long term deal with Max Scherzer. MLBTR quotes GM Dave Dombrowski:

"It makes it perhaps more possible.  As we've talked about in the past, we have a lot of stars on our club, They're well paid stars and under any circumstances, even with an owner like Mike Ilitch, you can only be in a position where you have so many of those types of players," Dombrowski told reporters on this evening's conference call.  "Does it make it probable?  I can''t say that.  But it makes it more possible going forward."

This move also closes one possible landing spot for Number One free agent Robinson Cano.

Kinsler's 2013 season was very good: 13 HR 72 RBI .277 BA 4.9 WAR.
Fielder's 2-13 season was also good: 25 HR 106 RBI .279 BA 1.7 WAR.

BIG MONEY TEAMS

The four finalists in Baseball's post season have one thing in common: high payrolls.

Even the mid market Cardinals spent at the end $125 million in payroll, which is a top 10 spending team. The Dodgers spent their new billion dollar cable deal to try to buy the Series, but money cannot get you everything (see, the Tigers the past few years).

But in the postseason, the payroll numbers tilt toward where the real money is spent: on starting pitching. Pitching can dominate the post season as teams begin to play tight.

This is the time where reputations are enhanced for starters like Verlander, Lester, Kershaw, Wainwright or Sanchez. This is why these guys command $100 million plus contracts.  They are truly definitions of "aces."

It has been true since the start of the game that a great starting pitcher can sell game day tickets at any ball park.  It is probably the allure that the best pitcher in the game is throwing that day; and that as a fan you could see something special like a strikeout record, a no-hitter or a perfect game.

The network is probably hoping for a Dodger=Red Sox finale to get the biggest TV markets on board for the Series. Likewise, a Detroit-St. Louis match up would leave both coasts outside the main event which the network would find unappealing to the causal fan.

Baseball is a profitable industry which can support those lofty ace pitcher contracts.

But the market between the big money teams and the bottom feeders is growing. The Astros entire payroll was less than $55 million, a number that would only pay half of a stud ace's contract. Or, in perspective, pay for less than 2.5 ace starters in the rotation.

There is always the question that looms over the sport: how long can the television money increase when viewership continues to splinter among cable, internet and mobile distractions? The era of the team-centric local cable channel may be the thing of the past as the pioneering Yankees began to divest from their golden goose, the YES Network. 

Which puts more emphasis on team owners unwilling to spend $125 million per season on talent to play the "small market card:" try to find diamonds in the pile of prospects who you can have under contract for 5 years at reasonable contract terms. Tampa Bay has been successful at this type of program, trading away quality starters like James Shield and Matt Garza (and position players like Carl Crawford and BJ Upton) before their price tags would skyrocket. If the Tampa Bay model was so easy, every team would do it and have payrolls under $75 million. (The Rays payroll ended at $87.8 million this season)

WHITE SOX BEGIN TO DEAL

If the White Sox had any consistent offense this season, word is that they would be competing with Detroit for the AL Central crown. But the offense has been bad. And the defense has followed suit. The front office still likes their young pitching corps, but need to bulk up fast on position players.

Jake Peavy told the team he wanted out. He wants to play for a contender. He wants a championship. That moxy, that macho attitude is what most teams want in their players. Whether Peavy can stay healthy for a pennant run is another question. But Peavy was going to be traded no matter what direction the White Sox are going to take this off season.

This three team trade was made purely based upon looming fear. Boston worried that its starting rotation may not come back from current ills. Detroit was worried about losing their starting shortstop to a PED suspension.

The Red Sox receive Peavy and Tiger minor league pitcher Brayan Villarreal. Peavy, 32, has a 4.28 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a 35.2 percent ground-ball rate in 80 innings for the White Sox this season, though he's spent some time on the disabled list with a broken rib. He is signed through next season. Villarreal allowed 10 runs in just 4 1/3 innings for the Tigers this season prior to the trade. In  2012, he posted a 2.63 ERA for Detroit. He averaged 97.1 mph on his fastball.  In 34 1/3 innings at Triple-A Toledo this year, the 26-year-old Villarreal owns a 3.15 ERA with 10.7 K/9 but a troubling 6.8 BB/9 rate.

The Tigers receive infield insurance with the Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias. Iglesias has out performed his minor league offensive numbers when promoted to the major league roster.  He played third base, but most believe he is the most talented shortstop in the organization.  Iglesias, 23, is hitting .330/.377/.410 in 231 plate appearances for the Red Sox this season.  Baseball America ranked him ninth among Red Sox prospects prior to the season based largely on his glove, calling him perhaps "the best defensive shortstop prospect in the game."

The White Sox prize in the deal is Detroit outfield prospect Avisail Garcia, who scouts compare to a more athletic Magglio Ordonez, a 6' 215 lb outfielder who had a productive career. Baseball America ranked the 22-year-old Garcia as the No. 74 prospect in baseball prior to the season, and he's delivered on that hype at Triple-A Toledo, hitting .382/.414/.549 with five home runs in 152 plate appearances. Garcia has the tools to be an everyday right fielder with average defense and All-Star upside, BA wrote in its preseason scouting report.

Garcia appears to be a "major league ready" prospect. In AAA this season, he hit .374, 5 HR, 23 RBI, .410 OBP. In 30 games with the Tigers, he hit .241, 2 HR, 10 RBI, .273 OBP.   He appears to be the replacement player if the White Sox can trade Alex Rios.

The White Sox also received three low minor players, two pitchers who may develop into relievers, and a shortstop with a good glove and no bat.

No one can blame the White Sox from trading away salary of high priced veterans for replacement field players. The White Sox farm system has no depth at fielding positions. Garcia becomes the White Sox number one prospect because he is the closest thing to a contributor this season.

With the league ready to announce 9 more player suspensions by the end of the week, there may be more insurance trades today by teams worried about the ramifications of player suspensions on the pennant chases.