TAPPING THE KEG

The Milwaukee Brewers have clearly indicated that they are "all in" for the 2018 season.

The Brew Crew has traded for disgruntled Marlin outfielder Christian Yelich in a deal which gives back four prospects to Florida.

The 26-year-old Yelich hit .282/.369/.439, with 18 home runs, over 695 plate appearances with the Marlins last season. He should slot in as Milwaukee’s everyday center fielder, and may be the club’s leadoff man in 2018. Yelich is young, productive and under cost control through 2021. The move not only gives the Brewers a star-caliber center fielder, but one at a minimal cost for years to come.

The cost for Yelich wasn’t cheap. Milwaukee gave up four players in the deal, including their number one prospect, Lewis Brinson (#16 in MLB) .Also in the deal are outfielder Monte Harrison, their No. 5 prospect (#75 in MLB), infielder Isan Diaz their No. 9 prospect and Jordan Yamamoto, according to Baseball America.

Brinson, 23, is the key to the deal. He has limited major league experience, but he has hit .287/.353/.502. Brinson is considered major-league ready, and should have an opportunity to be a full-time starter with the Marlins in 2018. Harrison, Diaz and Yamamoto have yet to play above High A so they’ll likely spend 2018 in the minors.

Then, the Brewers made a surprising move by signing outfielder Lorenzo Cain to a five year, $80 million contract. The Brewers now have a glut of outfield talent: Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, Keon Broxton and Brett Phillips. The surplus of outfielders means the Brewers can trade one in a deal to get a quality starting pitcher if they cannot land free agents Jake Arrieta or Yu Darvish (for whom reports said has been given an offer by the club).

Cain had a great season with the Royals in 2017. He hit .300, 15 HR, 49 RBI, 26 SB and a 5.3 WAR. Paired with Yelich, who hit .282, 18 HR, 81 RBI, 16 SB and 3.9 WAR, Milwaukee may have the best outfield in the NL with Santana hitting .278, 30 HR,85 RBI, 15 SB and 3.0 WAR.

The Brewers were in the hunt late into last season. The new additions have dramatically improved their chances at a wild card or division title.

THE MATH

It is crunch time in the NL Central.

Today's standings:

Cubs 83-66
Brewers 80-70  3.5 GB
Cardinals 77-72 6 GB

The Cubs and Cards have 13 games to play; Brewers 12.

The Cubs have a 97.1 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Brewers have 14.8%. The Cardinals only 4.0%.

But what will it take to win the division?

The Brewers are currently on an 8-2 streak. At that pace to the end of the season, the Brewers would win 88 games. So really, the mark to take the crown is 88 wins.

The Cardinals are currently on a 5-5 streak. They would have to win 11 of their last 13 games to reach 88 wins. That is highly unlikely.

The Cubs would have to go 5-8 to reach 88 games.Considering the Cubs have been good in their last ten games (7-3), they should easily reach 88 wins. The Cubs current winning percentage projects 90 wins which means the Brewers would have to win every remaining game to tie the Cubs.

The Cubs appear to be on the cusp of repeating their NL Central championship. The only potential spoiler remains the pesky Brewers.

SURRENDER

The turning point for the Cubs season may well be when Maddon surrendered a game when the Brewers were leading 8-0 in the 3rd inning. Pulling starters and running it like a spring training game gave the Brewers more opportunities to stomp the Cubs, 15-2. The Brewers went on to sweep the Cubs to push to only 2 games behind the NL Central Race (along with the Cardinals).

With 4 games left with Milwaukee and 7 games left with the Cardinals, the Cubs are on the verge of a historic meltdown.  The season has been tempered by a multitude of excuses: the Cubs played late into last season so they are tired (but the Indians did as well and currently have won 19 in a row); players were distracted by all the off-season celebratory events; the weather was cold early in the season; every club they played came into series with an attitude to beat the champions; there were some injuries; bad play would be turned around into consistent team performance; the club needs more Friday night games.

The idea that the 2017 Cubs, in the midst of their dull drum behavior, could turn around their performance on the dime into the 2016 Cubs juggernaut is a myth. But appears management and the team believed the myth. The recent Milwaukee series proved it was a myth. 

The Brewers were not supposed to contend for a title. The Cardinals were having a down year. The Cubs were supposed to cake walk through the division and into the playoffs. Many fans are now saying the 2017 season could be one of the great disappointments - - - a choke - - - if the Cubs fail to make the playoffs. In bad times, it is said you will find the best character in an individual. So far, we only see the Cubs on the ropes.

DESPERATION?

The Cubs are at a season high 13 games above .500. But the Brewers are still only 3.5 GB.

For the second time this season, the Cubs are messing with Brewers in regard to playing a game.
First, the Cubs called a game for an alleged rain out on a day that it did not rain. It created a
doubleheader disadvantage for Milwaukee.

Now, the Cubs got a "one time exception" to the Friday night home game ban. The reason:
the Cubs are coming home from a night game in Pittsburgh. Well, the team knew that a year ago
and the Cubs set the start times for their home games - - - a year ago.

The Brewers wanted the day game to go on as scheduled. They appealed to the league office.
No action was taken.

The Cubs may be "tired" on the trip home (?) but it is September - - - you can have 40 men on your roster!
Being tired in September is a weak excuse.

You are the defending World Champs. Why pull bush league schedule changes against your closest rival?

Perhaps it is because the Ricketts are so invested in the new infrastructure that they are desperate for
post-season revenue - - - a lot of post season revenue. World Series type revenue.

Attendance has not been max this year. The official seating number is around 42,000 but local business owners think the "real" capacity with standing room and party decks is more like 45,000. The Cubs have drawn 2.6 million in 66 home games (39,393). If the Cubs owners were banking on a full house for a full home schedule, revenue projections have been light by more than $18 million.

5 & 7

Barring an epic collapse, the rule of thumb is that a team can realistically make up one game per week in the standings.

There are approximately 5 weeks left to go in the season.

The Brewers are 3.5 games behind the Cubs. The Cardinals are 4.5 games behind.

The NL Central rivals may be looking more toward a tightening wild card race than a division win.

But the Cubs still have 7 games left with each of the Brewers and Cardinals. That means that the Brewers and Cardinals are not out of the race even if they trail by 7 games before meeting the Cubs.

Another rule of thumb is that a team needs to take care of business in its own division. The only two teams left with an above .500 record are the Brewers and Cardinals. The Cubs still need to play well against division teams in order to avoid a bitter September surprise.

BEAT DOWN

Yesterday's make up game had the underpinnings of a Cold War border crossing.

The Brewers were upset that they lost a precious day off for this make up game when the Cubs canceled a game in May when the bad weather never showed up.

The Brewers felt the Cubs front office (which has control of the start until the line up cards are exchanged with the home plate umpire) could have changed the day game to a night game to let the expected bad storms to pass. But the Cubs did not do so. They just canceled the game and scheduled a make up contest a day game after the Brewers played a night game.

It seems like a pretty petty thing for the Cubs to do. In May the Cubs were shuffling along. In July, the Cubs continue to shuffle along. Meanwhile, the Brewers used the clear diss to motivate themselves to pistol whip their rivals.

The blow out of the Cubs was done early. It was so bad that Joe Maddon admitted by the 5th inning he was talking to players about being the position mop-up pitcher in the late innings. A game of rock-paper-scissors between Jon Jay and Tommy LaStella allowed Jay to throw a slow pitch perfect 9th inning.

If Maddon joked about the end of the game as comic relief for a terrible performance, then the Cubs have more problems. The call up of Schwarber after 11 minor league games showed some desperation with the lack of offense. The Cubs were only averaging 4.5 R/G this year compared to 5.3 R/G in 2016. In the spring, Maddon wanted his team to average 6 R/G. Also, Mike Montgomery, who had been the most consistent pitcher since his promotion, got lit up by the Brewers.

You had the perfect storm. You had the Brewers who were mad at the Cubs for being disrespected; you have the Cubs who cannot seem to get their act together for two games in a row.

With the loss, the Cubs fall to 4.5 games behind the Brewers. Everyone keeps on talking about the Brewers not having the players to sustain a playoff run. But they continue to prove the division wrong. Everyone continues to believe that the Cubs will get a post break streak and cruise to the NL Central title. But that spark, if it was to be Schwarber's return, is fizzling (he is now hitting .168). 

Writers try to pry a silver lining out of the dark cloud of the season with this stat: 70% the rest of Cubs opponents are under .500. But in reality, that stat does not matter since the Cubs are under .500 too.

At a certain point, someone will have to call this "a lost season."  This Brewers game may be looked at in September as the downward fall of the Cubs championship defense.

A MADDONING GAME

The Cubs played a five hour nail biter in Milwaukee last night/this morning. The Cubs won, 2-1, in 13 innings in a game where Maddon used everyone except the four remaining starting pitchers.

Travis Wood pitched himself out of a bases loaded, no out jam during which Joe Maddon played musical chairs with his position players. Kris Bryant played LF, 3B, 1B and LF all in one half inning. Maddon played five infielders at one time. And the scary thought of Javy Baez playing first base was bad enough until he crossed back behind the mound to exchange gloves with Bryant like it was a summer sandlot pick-up game.

Wood became the eventual hero at the bat when he coaxed a bases loaded walk in the 13th. CSNChicago reported that when Wood inheriting two runners in the 12th inning, Maddon told Wood  "Understand one thing: If you get out of this, you get an at-bat. That kind of jacked him up a bit. That’s just how he operates, man.” To escape a bases-loaded, no-out jam.  Maddon went with a five-infielder alignment as Wood induced a shallow fly ball to center fielder Dexter Fowler and a pop-up to shortstop Addison Russell. After retiring Hernan Perez and Aaron Hill, Wood earned his at-bat by forcing another pop-out, this time from pinch-hitter Martin Maldonado. Wood then bailed out the offense again by drawing a five-pitch walk against Carlos Torres – Milwaukee’s sixth pitcher – with two outs and the bases loaded in the 13th inning.

The game was saved earlier by excellent defense by catcher David Ross. Ross threw out four runners on the base paths. Two came via attempted steals of second base, and two were actually picked off second. Ross ran from behind the plate all the way out to the baseline between second and third on one of the pick-off plays.

Maddon pulled Anthony Rizzo for a pinch runner (Baez) late in the game when the Cubs were down a run. It was a curious move because in a tight game with the prospect of extra innings, Rizzo is the type of walk-off hitter you want in those situations. Since the Cubs won, and Baez scoring the tying run, made Maddon's move acceptable.

A concern was raised prior to the game that the Cubs seem to be lulled into losses by playing down to the level of their competition. Most of the Cubs losses have come from sub .500 teams. The Brewers are not a very good team. Last night they played without their best hitter, Ryan Braun. Still, the Cubs were baffled again by another young starting pitcher.

The victory did stop the club's second two-game losing streak of the year. But this was another nail-biting, long game where all hands were on deck. The Cubs need a long outing today from Jason Hammel and better offense down the line up.

KNOW THE RULES FOLLOW THE RULES

In the heat of the game, players could be distracted by the situation. But you have to know the rules, and follow them.

The league announced an eight-game suspension for Brewer pitcher Will Smith, who plans to appeal. Here's the MLB announcement:

Milwaukee Brewers pitcher Will Smith has received an eight-game suspension for having a foreign substance on his arm during the bottom of the seventh inning of his Club’s Thursday, May 21st game against the Braves.  Joe Garagiola Jr., Senior Vice President of Standards & On-Field Operations for Major League Baseball, made the announcement.

Smith’s suspension had been scheduled to begin tonight, when the Brewers are to continue their series at Atlanta. However, he has elected to file an appeal. Thus, the discipline issued to him will be held in abeyance until the process is complete.

After the game Thursday night, Smith admitted that he had a mixture of sunscreen and rosin on his arm. That's in violation of MLB's rules, however it's not a particularly uncommon way for pitchers to get a better grip on the ball. Smith said  he had it on his arm in the bullpen, but "forgot" to clean it off when he took the mound.

The video of the incident clearly shows a shiny substance on Smith's arm. When Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez came out to speak to the home plate umpire, after Smith had hit a batter to load the bases, everyone assumed it was about the HBP. But after a few moments, the umpires got to the mound and inspected Smith's arm. One touch of the area, Smith was immediately ejected. 

But as Smith was leaving the mound, he turned to the Brave dugout and loudly cursed profanities at Gonzalez. Why? If he knew he was supposed to clean off his arm and did not do so, he broke the rules. Gonzalez brought it to the attention of the umpires, who tossed Smith from the game. Why blame the opponent for your own rules violation?  Sportsmanship should require accepting one's mistakes and not blaming someone else for getting caught.

FIRE IN THE HOLE

The old saying is true: it is better to get off to a hot start.

Or get burned.

The Associated Press reports that the Milwaukee Brewers fired manager Ron Roenicke on Sunday night, hours after their 5-3 victory over the Cubs in Chicago.

The Brewers are a major league-worst 7-18 (.281 winning percentage) after a 2-13 (.133 winning percentage) start. Even the slow improvement in winning percentage could not keep Roenicke's job. The team said it will announce a replacement today.

"This has been a difficult start to the season, something that we certainly didn't anticipate," president and general manager Doug Melvin said in a statement. "Over roughly the last 100 games, we have not performed at the level that we should. It's all about wins and losses, and after the first month of play this year we didn't see the progress and improvement we had hoped for.

"We appreciate all that Ron has done for our organization, and he has handled his duties with great professionalism and dedication. The reasons for our disappointing start are many, but we determined that it's in the best interests of the club to make this move."

The victory Sunday gave the Brewers their first consecutive victories of the year and first series win. Before this year, the most games Milwaukee needed for consecutive wins was 18 in 1972, according to STATS.

In four-plus seasons, the 58-year-old Roenicke was 342-331.

The Brewers slow start included a few injuries, including their starting catcher. However, every team has to deal with injuries.

By comparison, league laughing stock Houston Astros are in first place in the highly competitive AL West. The Astros 18-7 start (.720 winning percentage) shows that if the team merely goes .500 for the rest of the season, the Astros will have an 87 win season (.537 winning percentage) and a possible wild card spot.

NL WINTER OF DISCONTENT

The easy road to the playoffs is winning your division.

How have the NL Central teams fared so far this off season?

CUBS:
In: Jon Lester, David Ross, Jason Motte, Jason Hammel, Miguel Montero, Tommy La Stella

Out: Justin Ruggiano, Carlos Villanueva, a bunch of prospects

CARDINALS
In: Mark Reynolds, Matt Belisle, Jason Heyward, Jordan Walden, Dean Anna

Out: Daniel Descalso, Shelby Miller, Justin Masterson, A.J. Pierzynski, Jason Motte, Mark Ellis, Pat Neshek

BREWERS:
In: Adam Lind, Juan Centeno, Luis Jimenez

Out: Marco Estrada, Rickie Weeks, Francisco Rodriguez, Tom Gorzelanny, Zach Duke, Mark Reynolds, Lyle Overbay

PIRATES
In: Corey Hart, Radhames Liz, Sean Rodriguez, Antonio Bastardo, Pedro Florimon, Francisco Cervelli, Jake Elmore, Jung-Ho Kang
Out: Gaby Sanchez, Ike Davis, Justin Wilson, Russell Martin, Edinson Volquez, Clint Barmes

REDS:

In: Anthony DeSclafani, Chad Wallach, Eugenio Saurez, Jonathon Crawford, Ramon Cabrera, Neftali Soto, Matt Magill, Jose Flores
Out: Mat Latos, Alfredo Simon, Chris Heisey

At first glance, it appears the REDS are in complete demolition, tear-down mode. By trading away two starters from the deepest rotation in the division (because they would be free agents at the end of 2015) is a White Flag move before the season starts. Reds fans cannot be happy, even though the team has tried to stock pile young arms. Cincinnati appears to be a .500 club at best.

The BREWERS have been less active than the Reds, picking up one potential starter in Lind (6 HR, 40 RBI in 96 games). The Brew lost a lot of pitching depth so far this off season, so the team does appear to be falling below .500.

The CARDINALS lost a lot of pitching by trade and free agency, but the big exchange was to get Heywood to bolster a good line up of hitters. Reynolds appears to be a bench signing (insurance) in case Adams eats his way off first base. St. Louis will have to count on their young pitching pipeline to contend in 2015.

The PIRATES lost two key components: Volquez and Martin. But the addition of slick fielding Korean SS Kang is an upgrade, and upgrading the bullpen may help the starting staff. If Hart can get back to his 2012 season (30 HR, 89 RBI, .270 BA) then the Pirates will again be near the top of the division.

The CUBS player departures are insignificant in the grand scheme of things. Lester may be the best starter in the division, but the other additions do not help the team which has real trouble scoring runs.  There is a concern that a Montero-Ross catching tandem is a down grade from a healthy Castillo. The Cubs may still be a sub .500 team due to the prospects trying to become major league professionals.

Overall, the NL Central has not been as active as one may have thought this winter.

BRAIN CRAMPS

One would think, no, expect, that a manager should know the in-game situation before heading out to the mound.  The manager has a bench coach, pitching coach, and other coaches near him throughout the game. They should work as a team, discussing strategy, go over pitching and hitting charts, and making game adjustments.

So it is highly unusual when a manager goes to the mound and makes a seriously dumb gaffe.

Brewer manager Ron Roenicke went to the mound on Thursday night and signaled for a relief pitcher. The problem? No one was warming up in the pen.

Because Roenicke called for a reliever, he had to insert left-hander Will Smith into the game, without a normal bullpen warm up session.  Smith was only allowed the eight courtesy pitches on the game mound.

The Braves took advantage, scoring three runs in the seventh inning, coming from behind to take the lead before winning 5-4 at Turner Field.

"I feel bad about everything," said Roenicke, who took the blame for the botched communications in the Milwaukee dugout and bullpen. "It's going to be hard on me."

Ryan Doumit's pinch-hit single brought home the tying and go-ahead run after the Brewers summoned Smith, who was just sitting around in the bullpen with his jacket on.

This loss clearly goes into the "manager's loss" column. His decision clearly changed the outcome of the game.

Different pitchers have different warm up needs. Steve Stone was recently on the radio discussing the question of why some starters get roughed up in the early innings, then settle down.  Stone said that it because they don't warm up enough in the pre-game. Stone said the average starter throws around 70 warm up pitches before the game; some from the wind-up and some from the stretch. However, some pitchers (especially coming off an injury) cut back on the tosses and only throw 30-35 pitches. Stone thinks that is not enough to stretch out an arm or get a rhythm. As a result, it takes a luke warm pitcher two innings on the mound to get warmed up and in control. But by that time, the opponent may have scored a lot of runs.

It is up to the pitching and bullpen coaches to make sure their pitchers are sufficiently warmed up to play. Ryan Dempster was also quoted as saying recently that he believes pitch counts are overrated. He said he felt the best when he pitched 8 games in a row as a closer, than pitching every five days as a starter. 

There are some "quick start" relievers who can quickly toss 6 or 7 bullpen pitches and they are ready to go. But that also may be that they have trained themselves through "over use" to be ready quickly. Now, since many relievers are getting big money deals, management keeps pitch counts on relievers too. Some times a reliever will not throw three games in a row for fear of injury. 

A manager should know how many pitches it takes each pitcher on his staff to warm up. He should be able to anticipate when to get a reliever up in the pen and into the game several batters ahead of the actual game action. The worst thing for a reliever is being told to warm up, sit down, warm up, sit down over the course of a few innings. It leads to overthrowing in the bullpen, and being ineffective when called to the mound later in the game.

With all the technology and communications equipment available to a manager, there is no excuse for a call to the bullpen be such as gaffe as seen in the Brewers contest. It cost the Brewers a victory, which could loom large in a close pennant race.

INNOCENCE LOST

The Cubs trade of Matt Garza was lost in the big baseball news of yesterday.

No one saw it coming late yesterday afternoon that MLB had suspended Brewers OF Ryan Braun for the rest of the season (65 games) without pay. The shocking thing was that Braun accepted the suspension, but only admitted "he made some mistakes" in the past and left the Milwaukee clubhouse to avoid the press.

Yahoo Sports columnist Jeff Passan went off on Braun's conduct in his column today. He called him a self-centered liar and cheat. He was the ultimate self-protectionist.  He took the deal to get ahead of the massive suspensions to come down later from the Biogenesis scandal. But Passan believes that Braun is not "sorry" for his actions, or even letting down his teammates and defenders.

Comments from fans on Milwaukee radio were very harsh. They were duped by Braun's strong denials during the first drug test appeal (which was tossed on a contract technicality). When he told the fans afterward that he had "proved his innocence," it seems that was another bold face lie. Brewer fans were angered by the fact that in retrospect, Braun burned the local drug test taker with malicious lies but gets to go home with the remaining $117 million contract as his security blanket. The face of the Brewers franchise is now closer to a mug shot.

Brewers GM Doug Melvin was terse with the media before last night's game. He was happy the suspension was done but he was blindsided by the news. Braun took the suspension in stride because he was probably going to be put on the DL anyway with a hand injury. Braun gets an extended vacation and will return in 2014. Melvin gritted his teeth when asked if Braun would continue to be the future of the Brewers. Melvin signed Braun to the huge extension that now looks worse the scandal itself. If Braun's consistent career MVP numbers were created in large part by HGH, steroids or some other PED, then Braun's return to the team could be a bad dead money contract if he hits .220 and his production fades away. The Brewers are stuck with Braun. He is untradeable.  It will be hard to spin PR to change the negative attitude towards a patent liar.

The Brewers fans lost their naive innocence last night with Braun's suspension. It was a sucker punch in the throat. It will be hard to imagine that the blue collar folk will embrace such a stained role model next season.

ESPN commentators were of the opinion that there has been no incentive for players not to cheat. Melky Cabrera took his suspension last year and parlayed it into a multi-million deal with the Blue Jays, partly based on his previous juiced statistics. Braun gets a "light" 65 games without pay ($3.4 million) but he gets to keep the remaining $117 million, which in part was based upon his PED past. Unless players get "season long" or the possibility of a lifetime ban (like the gambling on baseball rule), there is no real disincentive not to cheat.

Alex Rodriguez of the Yankees will be the nuclear bomb in the scandal. If the reports are true, that MLB has a mountain of evidence against him from the Miami clinic, then A-Rod's huge contract could be essentially voided which would benefit the Yankees. A-Rod has already admitted to using PEDs in the past. Every team he has been on in his career has been tainted by the steroid era rumors. One would suspect that MLB will come down hard on A-Rod.

None of the players caught up in the Biogenesis scandal answered MLB investigators questions. That was their right under the CBA and law. But even the union president signaled last week that the union would not support an appeal of players who clearly violated the drug policy rules. The union head inferred that his recommendation to players would be cut "a plea deal" with MLB. Braun took that advice and cut a favorable outcome for himself. A move as Passan said was solely motivated to protect Braun from harsher penalties.

MLB has tried to clean up the sports image. But this latest round of PED allegations brings back the ugly cloud of suspicion and doubt of the steroid era back in every clubhouse.

NL CENTRAL PROJECTIONS

As spring training begins to wind down, opening day rosters are becoming quite clear. CBS Sports published this week a projected opening day lineup and rotation with closer for each team.

Our focus is on the NL Central. In 2012, the NL Central teams (excluding the Astros, now in the AL West) won a total of 408 games. If you divide 408 wins by 5 teams, the average is 81.6 wins/team. That is consistent with the average of 81 wins for a .500 club.

Using the published projected lineups, I ranked each team position player with his divisional peer.  The ranking was 5 (for the best) to 1 (for the worst). This would equate to a total possible of 210 points.  For each team rank point, it would project to 1.943 wins.

For the positional players, the points from the rankings finished as follows:

Reds 29
Cards 27
Brewers 25
Pirates 24
Cubs 15

For the pitchers (5 starters and closer), the points from the rankings finished as follows:

Reds 25 & Cards 25
Pirates 15
Brewers 13
Cubs 12

Total points were:

Reds 54 = 104.92 wins
Cards 52 = 101.04 wins
Pirates 39 = 75.78 wins
Brewers 38 = 73.83 wins
Cubs 27 = 52. 46 wins

From last year's standings and this projection:

Reds 105 wins = +8 wins from 2012 (97)
Cards 101 wins = +13 wins from 2012 (88)
Pirates 76 wins =  +3 more losses from 2012 (79)
Brewers 74 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (83)
Cubs 52 wins = +9 more losses from 2012 (61)

The Cardinals may project on paper as the most improved in the division, but the difference between the Reds is not enough to overcome the gap; even if the Reds repeat the same season, the Cards gain of +5 would still leave them only with 93 wins (6 GB). There will be a battle for first place, and a close battle for third place. The Cubs appear to be the bottom feeder by a wide margin.