The Mets have offered third baseman David Wright a 6 year, $100 million deal. Wright, a free agent after 2013, is expected to decline the offer.
The Mets offer is the same as two other third basemen who signed this year: Evan Longoria of the Rays and Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals. At $16.67 million per season, the market has been set for a quality third baseman.
Zimmerman was the face of the Nationals franchise when it was bad. He has had two injury seasons, and durability going forward was a small factor in his recent new contract. In 8 years, Zimmerman is a career .287 hitter, with 153 HR, 593 RBI, .353 OBP, 30 SB, .959 field percentage and 28.6 WAR.
Longoria is less than two years younger. He burst on the scene in 2008. He is also the face of the Rays franchise. However, he was hurt last season so his long term durability came into question. But in his 5 years, he is a career .276 hitter, with 130 HR, 456 RBI, .361 OBP, 36 SB, .963 field percentage and 28.5 WAR.
Wright, 29, has been a career Met. He had one injury shorten season in 2011. Last year he rebounded by playing in 156 games. In his 9 seasons, he is a career .301 hitter, with 204 HR, 818 RBI, .381 OBP, 166 SB, .953 field percentage and 39.1 WAR.
It is not a direct apples to apples comparsion, but these three proven players are similar enough to set the market value for a steady, quality third baseman at $16.67 million plus per season. Wright will probably ask for more money based upon his slightly better stats than Zimmerman. And in the league with power third basemen at a premium, he will probably get more than a $100 million deal.
UPDATE: Wright signed an 8 year/$138 million deal to stay with the Mets. That averages $17.25 million per season.
November 27, 2012
November 26, 2012
THE NEW BUSINESS MODEL
The numbers are getting obscene.
The Dodgers will ink a new 25 year, $6 billion plus local television deal with Fox Sports.
The Angels just completed their own $3 billion local package.
The Cubs are going to start to uncouple the old Tribune broadcast contracts, beginning in 2014. The Cubs will be the last team to jolt their local television revenues.
Major league baseball's new national television contract is worth $12. 4 billion. It will kick $51.8 million to each team by 2014.
Professional baseball is no longer a sport. It is expensive television programming.
The Dodgers will soon bank annually $240 million in local television, plus $51.8 million in national revenue. The Dodgers will have to kick in 34 percent of local revenues back into the league subsidy pool, or $80 million. Even with that surtax, before the first game of the season starts, the Dodgers will have $211.8 million in revenue. With the luxury payroll tax set at $189 million (which clubs do not want to reach), before one patron buys a ticket for a game, the Dodgers are ahead in positive revenue by more than $22 million. If the Dodgers hold steady at 2011 ticket revenue numbers of $107 million per season, the team is a profit machine of more than $120 million per year.
Again, the revenue driver is not attendance in MLB. It is television contracts. In the Dodgers case, television revenue is 2.73 times more than attendance revenue.
Now, these television deals are long term contracts. The money is guaranteed no matter what the Dodgers record will be in the future. Cable operators are counting on a loyal fan base and ownership egos for a desire for championship seasons - - - to hold viewership and advertising ratings. But is there really an incentive for ownership with these huge television deals to continue to spend money on players to the lux cap max? Probably not. Owners and their investors want return on their investment. With these outrageously generous television deals for local rights, owners want to pocket as much profit as possible, and then flip the franchise at its peak value to a new ownership group.
There is a television "bubble" in regard to value of these television contracts. Just like with any other bubble commodity (real estate for example), there is a crash - - - a retreat back to the norm. The question is when that will happen. And who will be holding the hot potato when the bubble bursts.
The Dodgers will ink a new 25 year, $6 billion plus local television deal with Fox Sports.
The Angels just completed their own $3 billion local package.
The Cubs are going to start to uncouple the old Tribune broadcast contracts, beginning in 2014. The Cubs will be the last team to jolt their local television revenues.
Major league baseball's new national television contract is worth $12. 4 billion. It will kick $51.8 million to each team by 2014.
Professional baseball is no longer a sport. It is expensive television programming.
The Dodgers will soon bank annually $240 million in local television, plus $51.8 million in national revenue. The Dodgers will have to kick in 34 percent of local revenues back into the league subsidy pool, or $80 million. Even with that surtax, before the first game of the season starts, the Dodgers will have $211.8 million in revenue. With the luxury payroll tax set at $189 million (which clubs do not want to reach), before one patron buys a ticket for a game, the Dodgers are ahead in positive revenue by more than $22 million. If the Dodgers hold steady at 2011 ticket revenue numbers of $107 million per season, the team is a profit machine of more than $120 million per year.
Again, the revenue driver is not attendance in MLB. It is television contracts. In the Dodgers case, television revenue is 2.73 times more than attendance revenue.
Now, these television deals are long term contracts. The money is guaranteed no matter what the Dodgers record will be in the future. Cable operators are counting on a loyal fan base and ownership egos for a desire for championship seasons - - - to hold viewership and advertising ratings. But is there really an incentive for ownership with these huge television deals to continue to spend money on players to the lux cap max? Probably not. Owners and their investors want return on their investment. With these outrageously generous television deals for local rights, owners want to pocket as much profit as possible, and then flip the franchise at its peak value to a new ownership group.
There is a television "bubble" in regard to value of these television contracts. Just like with any other bubble commodity (real estate for example), there is a crash - - - a retreat back to the norm. The question is when that will happen. And who will be holding the hot potato when the bubble bursts.
November 23, 2012
BREAK-OUT SEASON PROBLEMS
The New York Mets have a unique problem. One of their starting pitchers had a break-out season. And he won the NL Cy Young. That should be a good problem to have, especially for the Mets franchise.
But the player is R.A. Dickey. The issues are:
1. He is 38 years old.
2. He is a knuckleball pitcher.
3. He has a had an average journeyman career.
4. He probably wants an expensive extension.
5. Knuckleball pitchers have inconsistent careers.
Dickey's career was unremarkable. He debuted in a short stint with the Rangers in 2001 at age 26. In 2003 and 2004 he was a part time starter, going 9-8 and 6-7 with ERAs over 5.00. He bounced around Seattle and Minnesota. In 2009, he went 1-1. 4.62 ERA in 35 games (1 start) for the Twins.
In 2010, he landed with the Mets as a starter and had is best year: 11-9, 2.84 ERA in 174 IP. At age 36, the Mets signed him to a 3 year/$12.5 million deal.
Dickey was the first knuckleballer to win the Cy Young. He was also a late bloomer. Those two things go against a player. Knuckleball or junk pitchers are usually gimmicks players use to try to extend their careers a year or two. Knuckleballers have consistently and control problems. The only advantage of one is that there is less strain on the shoulder or arm. They become innings eaters, like Dickey last season with a league high 233.2 IP.
Most teams do not favor knuckleballers in the rotation. First, most scouts prefer balanced power pitchers who have an "out" pitch (a curve or a change). Second, most general managers prefer pitchers with multiple pitches (fastball, curve, change or slider) which gives managers more flexibility in case a pitcher does not have one pitch working during that start. Third, it takes a special catcher to catch a knuckleballer. Since most of the pitchers may go anywhere, including the dirt, it takes a toll on a catcher's back and knees. Fourth, the velocity of a knuckleball is dramatically less than a normal major league pitch. As a result, most good hitters can adjust quickly. And once a knuckler fails to knuckle, it turns into batting practice at 65 mph. Fifth, knuckleballs are difficult to throw for strikes. That leads to higher on-base percentages for opponents, and potential big innings.
Dickey throws his knuckleball "harder" than most pitchers of the genre. His knuckler is thrown in the high 70s. The twist with Dickey is that he throws his knuckle ball at two different speeds (one, 73-75, the other 76-80.) Most pitching coaches preach that the change in velocity of a pitch is a pitcher's greatest weapon against a major league hitter. It throws off the hitter's timing.
So Dickey is a unique pitcher. But he is also a pitcher that throws an historically inconsistent pitch.
Pitching is a premium in baseball. Dickey is an innings eater. He had a career year. The problem with the Mets is that Dickey will be asking for a contract extension. Is it good to sign a pitcher into their 40s? Or is it better to trade Dickey when his "value" as a starter is at its peak? Dickey went 20-6, 2.73 ERA in 34 games in 2012.
The Mets went 77-88, finishing 4th in the NL East. The team is caught in a near-rebuilding mode. They have two young pitchers who can compete for rotation spots. It is probably a coin flip of what the Mets will do with Dickey this off-season.
But the player is R.A. Dickey. The issues are:
1. He is 38 years old.
2. He is a knuckleball pitcher.
3. He has a had an average journeyman career.
4. He probably wants an expensive extension.
5. Knuckleball pitchers have inconsistent careers.
Dickey's career was unremarkable. He debuted in a short stint with the Rangers in 2001 at age 26. In 2003 and 2004 he was a part time starter, going 9-8 and 6-7 with ERAs over 5.00. He bounced around Seattle and Minnesota. In 2009, he went 1-1. 4.62 ERA in 35 games (1 start) for the Twins.
In 2010, he landed with the Mets as a starter and had is best year: 11-9, 2.84 ERA in 174 IP. At age 36, the Mets signed him to a 3 year/$12.5 million deal.
Dickey was the first knuckleballer to win the Cy Young. He was also a late bloomer. Those two things go against a player. Knuckleball or junk pitchers are usually gimmicks players use to try to extend their careers a year or two. Knuckleballers have consistently and control problems. The only advantage of one is that there is less strain on the shoulder or arm. They become innings eaters, like Dickey last season with a league high 233.2 IP.
Most teams do not favor knuckleballers in the rotation. First, most scouts prefer balanced power pitchers who have an "out" pitch (a curve or a change). Second, most general managers prefer pitchers with multiple pitches (fastball, curve, change or slider) which gives managers more flexibility in case a pitcher does not have one pitch working during that start. Third, it takes a special catcher to catch a knuckleballer. Since most of the pitchers may go anywhere, including the dirt, it takes a toll on a catcher's back and knees. Fourth, the velocity of a knuckleball is dramatically less than a normal major league pitch. As a result, most good hitters can adjust quickly. And once a knuckler fails to knuckle, it turns into batting practice at 65 mph. Fifth, knuckleballs are difficult to throw for strikes. That leads to higher on-base percentages for opponents, and potential big innings.
Dickey throws his knuckleball "harder" than most pitchers of the genre. His knuckler is thrown in the high 70s. The twist with Dickey is that he throws his knuckle ball at two different speeds (one, 73-75, the other 76-80.) Most pitching coaches preach that the change in velocity of a pitch is a pitcher's greatest weapon against a major league hitter. It throws off the hitter's timing.
So Dickey is a unique pitcher. But he is also a pitcher that throws an historically inconsistent pitch.
Pitching is a premium in baseball. Dickey is an innings eater. He had a career year. The problem with the Mets is that Dickey will be asking for a contract extension. Is it good to sign a pitcher into their 40s? Or is it better to trade Dickey when his "value" as a starter is at its peak? Dickey went 20-6, 2.73 ERA in 34 games in 2012.
The Mets went 77-88, finishing 4th in the NL East. The team is caught in a near-rebuilding mode. They have two young pitchers who can compete for rotation spots. It is probably a coin flip of what the Mets will do with Dickey this off-season.
November 21, 2012
CUBS WINTER ROSTER
The Cubs added four minor league players to complete their 40 man roster.
Second baseman Logan Watkins, the Cubs Minor League Player of the Year, right-handed pitcher Trey McNutt, infielder Christian Villanueva (who came from Texas in the Dempster trade) and right-handed pitcher Robert Whitenack were added to the Cubs' roster.
Watkins, 23, a 21st-round pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, batted .281 for Tennessee and finished second in the league in walks and triples. He led the league in runs scored (93) and compiled a 13-game hitting streak in June, collecting seven multihit games in that stretch.
McNutt, 23, has been considered a top prospect since he went 10-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 2010 for Class A Peoria, Daytona and Tennessee. In 2011, he was 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 23 games for the Smokies, and this season, went 9-8 with a 4.26 ERA in 34 games (17 starts).
Villanueva, 21, was acquired from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster deal in July, and batted .279 for Class A Myrtle Beach and Daytona combined, with 14 home runs, 24 doubles and 68 RBIs. He was playing for Obregon in the Mexican Winter League. He began his Cubs career by hitting a home run in each of his first two at-bats in his first game with Daytona.
An eighth-round pick in 2009, Whitenack, who turned 24 on Tuesday, has been slowed after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2011. He began the 2011 season 7-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 11 starts between Daytona and Tennessee, earning Southern League All-Star honors, before he was sidelined with an elbow injury.
Major league teams must protect players first signed at age 18 on the 40 man roster within five years or they become eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process. Players signed at 19 years old are to be protected within four years.
At the winter meetings, clubs can pay $50,000 to select a player in the Rule 5 Draft
If that player doesn't stay on the 25-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $25,000.
The Cubs selected pitcher Lendy Castillo from the Phils in the last Rule 5 draft. By all accounts, Castillo was a reach by the Cubs. In 2011, Castillo pitched in A ball. He appeared in 21 games, with a record of 4-2, 2.54 ERA in 46 IP. For the Cubs, Castillo had to remain on the major league roster. He was hid in the bullpen and appeared in only 13 games, going 0-1 with 7.88 ERA and 2.250 WHIP. He spent most of the season on the disabled list. But he is now a Cub property. That is the risk-reward of taking a young player with a live arm.
Two players left unprotected by the Cubs may get drafted by other clubs. Right-hander pitcher Nick Struck, who was the organization's 2012 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, was left unprotected. Struck, 23, started 26 games in AA in 2012. He went 14-10, 3.18 ERA in 155.2 IP, with 123 K and 44 BB, and 1.182 WHIP. Some may question why Whitenack was protected over Struck.
Also unprotected is Frank Batista, 23, who converted 23 of his first 24 save opportunities for Tennessee. A Southern League All-Star, he compiled a 2.22 ERA in 43 games, but did struggle in a brief stint with Triple-A Iowa, posting a 5.87 ERA in six games. If the Cubs are trying to move Marmol in the off-season, they need to develop a new closer.
The 40 man roster is the foundation for the major league team. The Cubs foundation currently stands as follows:
Pitchers (21): Baker, Beliveau, Bowden, Cabrera, Camp, Castillo, Chapman, Coleman, Concepcion, Dolis, Garza, Marmol, McNutt, Putnam, Raley, Rusin, Russell, Samardzija, Vizcaino, Whitenack and Wood.
Catchers (3): Castillo, Clevenger, Navarro
Infielders (9): Barney, Castro, Lake, Rizzo, Stewart, Valbuena, Villanueva, Vitters and Watkins.
Outfielders (7) : Campana, DeJesus, B. Jackson, Sappelt, Soler, Soriano and Szczur.
Second baseman Logan Watkins, the Cubs Minor League Player of the Year, right-handed pitcher Trey McNutt, infielder Christian Villanueva (who came from Texas in the Dempster trade) and right-handed pitcher Robert Whitenack were added to the Cubs' roster.
Watkins, 23, a 21st-round pick in the 2008 First-Year Player Draft, batted .281 for Tennessee and finished second in the league in walks and triples. He led the league in runs scored (93) and compiled a 13-game hitting streak in June, collecting seven multihit games in that stretch.
McNutt, 23, has been considered a top prospect since he went 10-1 with a 2.48 ERA in 2010 for Class A Peoria, Daytona and Tennessee. In 2011, he was 5-6 with a 4.55 ERA in 23 games for the Smokies, and this season, went 9-8 with a 4.26 ERA in 34 games (17 starts).
Villanueva, 21, was acquired from the Rangers in the Ryan Dempster deal in July, and batted .279 for Class A Myrtle Beach and Daytona combined, with 14 home runs, 24 doubles and 68 RBIs. He was playing for Obregon in the Mexican Winter League. He began his Cubs career by hitting a home run in each of his first two at-bats in his first game with Daytona.
An eighth-round pick in 2009, Whitenack, who turned 24 on Tuesday, has been slowed after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2011. He began the 2011 season 7-0 with a 1.93 ERA in 11 starts between Daytona and Tennessee, earning Southern League All-Star honors, before he was sidelined with an elbow injury.
Major league teams must protect players first signed at age 18 on the 40 man roster within five years or they become eligible to be drafted by other organizations through the Rule 5 process. Players signed at 19 years old are to be protected within four years.
At the winter meetings, clubs can pay $50,000 to select a player in the Rule 5 Draft
If that player doesn't stay on the 25-man roster for the full season, he must be offered back to his former team for $25,000.
The Cubs selected pitcher Lendy Castillo from the Phils in the last Rule 5 draft. By all accounts, Castillo was a reach by the Cubs. In 2011, Castillo pitched in A ball. He appeared in 21 games, with a record of 4-2, 2.54 ERA in 46 IP. For the Cubs, Castillo had to remain on the major league roster. He was hid in the bullpen and appeared in only 13 games, going 0-1 with 7.88 ERA and 2.250 WHIP. He spent most of the season on the disabled list. But he is now a Cub property. That is the risk-reward of taking a young player with a live arm.
Two players left unprotected by the Cubs may get drafted by other clubs. Right-hander pitcher Nick Struck, who was the organization's 2012 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, was left unprotected. Struck, 23, started 26 games in AA in 2012. He went 14-10, 3.18 ERA in 155.2 IP, with 123 K and 44 BB, and 1.182 WHIP. Some may question why Whitenack was protected over Struck.
Also unprotected is Frank Batista, 23, who converted 23 of his first 24 save opportunities for Tennessee. A Southern League All-Star, he compiled a 2.22 ERA in 43 games, but did struggle in a brief stint with Triple-A Iowa, posting a 5.87 ERA in six games. If the Cubs are trying to move Marmol in the off-season, they need to develop a new closer.
The 40 man roster is the foundation for the major league team. The Cubs foundation currently stands as follows:
Pitchers (21): Baker, Beliveau, Bowden, Cabrera, Camp, Castillo, Chapman, Coleman, Concepcion, Dolis, Garza, Marmol, McNutt, Putnam, Raley, Rusin, Russell, Samardzija, Vizcaino, Whitenack and Wood.
Catchers (3): Castillo, Clevenger, Navarro
Infielders (9): Barney, Castro, Lake, Rizzo, Stewart, Valbuena, Villanueva, Vitters and Watkins.
Outfielders (7) : Campana, DeJesus, B. Jackson, Sappelt, Soler, Soriano and Szczur.
LA HAIR TODAY GONE TOMORROW
Slightly raise an eyebrow while scanning this morning's transactions:
The Cubs continue to nibble around the stale cracker of the low prospect talent pool by re-trading reliever Jake Brigham (who was acquired in the Soto deal) back to the Texas Rangers for AA pitcher Barret Loux.
Loux, 23, started 25 games in AA last season. He went 14-1, 3.47 ERA in 127 IP. He gave up 41 BB to 100 K, and had a 1.268 WHIP. Texas is known for developing pitchers, so why did Nolan Ryan and Rangers part with Loux? Loux was drafted by Arizona in the first round in 2010. However, he failed his physical due to a torn labrum and other elbow injuries. He later signed with Texas.
Brigham, 24, had a very short Cub career. In two starts at AA, he went 0-2, 19.54 ERA with a 4.091 WHIP. He was shut down due to an elbow strain. The Rangers must believe he has something in power pitching. During 600 career minor league innings, he has 543 Ks. But he also has a career 1.401 WHIP.
So the trade seems too lopsided to be true, unless Loux is Mark Prior fragile.
UPDATE: Dave van Dyke of the Tribune reports that Loux is considered a "compensation" replacement for Brigham, who was acquired from the Rangers during the season for catcher Geovany Soto but came to the Cubs with an injured elbow.
The other news of the day is that the Cubs designated for assignment Bryan LaHair. This is the first step to releasing LaHair, so he can "pursue opportunities" in Japan. The Cubs have 10 days to trade or release him. The Cubs tried to package LaHair in various July deadline trades, but no other team had interest in the Cub All-Star.
People forget that LaHair was statistically the best NL first baseman in the first half of 2012. But the league adjusted in the second half, and LaHair lost his job to Anthony Rizzo. LaHair turned into a bench and fourth outfielder, ending the season appearing in 130 games, hitting 16 HR, 40 RBI, batting .259, with .334 OBP. He had a career major league WAR of 0.2. He is the classic AAAA player, because in his 9 minor league seasons, he hit .295, 156 HR, 651 RBI with a .405 OBP. He hit 38 HR and drove in 109 runs in 2011 Iowa.
It is a surprising move to release LaHair at this point of the off-season. First, the Cubs have no back up first baseman in case Rizzo gets hurt. Second, LaHair is currently the third outfielder on the depth chart in RF. Tony Campana and Dave Sappelt do not project to starting RF candidates. Third, LaHair would have provided a left handed power bat off the bench. Fourth, LaHair is projected to make the major league minimum of $500k in 2013. Fifth, unless there was absolutely no interest in LaHair at the GM meetings, why release him before the winter meetings? The only reason to release him now is to open up a spot on the 40 man roster to protect another player from the minor league Rule 5 draft in December.
The LaHair move just adds another hole in the Cubs opening day roster.
The Cubs continue to nibble around the stale cracker of the low prospect talent pool by re-trading reliever Jake Brigham (who was acquired in the Soto deal) back to the Texas Rangers for AA pitcher Barret Loux.
Loux, 23, started 25 games in AA last season. He went 14-1, 3.47 ERA in 127 IP. He gave up 41 BB to 100 K, and had a 1.268 WHIP. Texas is known for developing pitchers, so why did Nolan Ryan and Rangers part with Loux? Loux was drafted by Arizona in the first round in 2010. However, he failed his physical due to a torn labrum and other elbow injuries. He later signed with Texas.
Brigham, 24, had a very short Cub career. In two starts at AA, he went 0-2, 19.54 ERA with a 4.091 WHIP. He was shut down due to an elbow strain. The Rangers must believe he has something in power pitching. During 600 career minor league innings, he has 543 Ks. But he also has a career 1.401 WHIP.
So the trade seems too lopsided to be true, unless Loux is Mark Prior fragile.
UPDATE: Dave van Dyke of the Tribune reports that Loux is considered a "compensation" replacement for Brigham, who was acquired from the Rangers during the season for catcher Geovany Soto but came to the Cubs with an injured elbow.
The other news of the day is that the Cubs designated for assignment Bryan LaHair. This is the first step to releasing LaHair, so he can "pursue opportunities" in Japan. The Cubs have 10 days to trade or release him. The Cubs tried to package LaHair in various July deadline trades, but no other team had interest in the Cub All-Star.
People forget that LaHair was statistically the best NL first baseman in the first half of 2012. But the league adjusted in the second half, and LaHair lost his job to Anthony Rizzo. LaHair turned into a bench and fourth outfielder, ending the season appearing in 130 games, hitting 16 HR, 40 RBI, batting .259, with .334 OBP. He had a career major league WAR of 0.2. He is the classic AAAA player, because in his 9 minor league seasons, he hit .295, 156 HR, 651 RBI with a .405 OBP. He hit 38 HR and drove in 109 runs in 2011 Iowa.
It is a surprising move to release LaHair at this point of the off-season. First, the Cubs have no back up first baseman in case Rizzo gets hurt. Second, LaHair is currently the third outfielder on the depth chart in RF. Tony Campana and Dave Sappelt do not project to starting RF candidates. Third, LaHair would have provided a left handed power bat off the bench. Fourth, LaHair is projected to make the major league minimum of $500k in 2013. Fifth, unless there was absolutely no interest in LaHair at the GM meetings, why release him before the winter meetings? The only reason to release him now is to open up a spot on the 40 man roster to protect another player from the minor league Rule 5 draft in December.
The LaHair move just adds another hole in the Cubs opening day roster.
November 19, 2012
BULLPEN SHUFFLE
The Cubs re-signed their 2012 MVP: Shawn Camp.
Camp, 37, was a journeyman released from the Mariners camp. The Cubs signed him to a minor league deal, then promoted him to be a middle reliever.
Camp will earn $1.35 million in 2013 with $200,000 in bonus incentives.
In 2012, he had a career high 80 game appearances, which led the majors. He went 3-6, 3.59 ERA in 77.2 IP. He had 54 SO, 21 BB, 1.288 WHIP. In all told, a average major league middle reliever stat season.
It seemed the Cubs were in the process of shuffling their bullpen this off season. First, the Cubs were on the cusp of trading closer Carlos Marmol to the Angels for Dan Haren. Even though that deal did not go through, it does appear that the Cubs want to part with Marmol this off season.
The Cubs previously signed low tier free agent pitchers Zach Putnam (waivers from Rockies) and Carlos Guiterrez (off waivers from the Twins) to replace Manny Corpas, Miguel Socolovich, and/or Jason Berken in the bullpen.
There are also reports that the Cubs met with Japan free agent closer Kyuji Fujikawa. Fujikawa, 32, was a top closer in Japan for the last six seasons. He was ranked the 34th best free agent by MLBTR.
His career numbers: 26-18, 1.36 ERA, 202 saves, 369.2 IP, 510 K, 94 BB, 1.028 WHIP.
Marmol, 30, is in the last year of his current deal. He will be paid $9.8 million in 2013, which is on the high end of closers. Marmol went 3-3, 3.38 ERA, 20 saves in 55.1 IP. He had a high WHIP of 1.536, which showed he had control issues. He had 72 K to 45 BB. One can see the Cubs trying to dump Marmol's salary this off-season and take a flyer on a nominal free agent closer.
Camp, 37, was a journeyman released from the Mariners camp. The Cubs signed him to a minor league deal, then promoted him to be a middle reliever.
Camp will earn $1.35 million in 2013 with $200,000 in bonus incentives.
In 2012, he had a career high 80 game appearances, which led the majors. He went 3-6, 3.59 ERA in 77.2 IP. He had 54 SO, 21 BB, 1.288 WHIP. In all told, a average major league middle reliever stat season.
It seemed the Cubs were in the process of shuffling their bullpen this off season. First, the Cubs were on the cusp of trading closer Carlos Marmol to the Angels for Dan Haren. Even though that deal did not go through, it does appear that the Cubs want to part with Marmol this off season.
The Cubs previously signed low tier free agent pitchers Zach Putnam (waivers from Rockies) and Carlos Guiterrez (off waivers from the Twins) to replace Manny Corpas, Miguel Socolovich, and/or Jason Berken in the bullpen.
There are also reports that the Cubs met with Japan free agent closer Kyuji Fujikawa. Fujikawa, 32, was a top closer in Japan for the last six seasons. He was ranked the 34th best free agent by MLBTR.
His career numbers: 26-18, 1.36 ERA, 202 saves, 369.2 IP, 510 K, 94 BB, 1.028 WHIP.
Marmol, 30, is in the last year of his current deal. He will be paid $9.8 million in 2013, which is on the high end of closers. Marmol went 3-3, 3.38 ERA, 20 saves in 55.1 IP. He had a high WHIP of 1.536, which showed he had control issues. He had 72 K to 45 BB. One can see the Cubs trying to dump Marmol's salary this off-season and take a flyer on a nominal free agent closer.
WAYS TO REBUILD
There has been more buzz on the glacial speed of the Cubs rebuilding process than on hot stove rumors in this off-season.
Yes, Scott Baker and Dioner Navarro signing do not stoke the fires of fans as the darkness of winter falls upon the Cub collective.
Part of the problem with the Cubs is the bi-polar messages being sent by the team to its fans. When Ricketts purchased the Cubs, he said that the team was only one or two players away from winning a championship. When Epstein was announced as the new team president, Ricketts said that the team was one or two players away from championship caliber. Ricketts also promised to maintain a competitive team.
Maintaining a competitive team, in reality or in illusion, is the main goal of the business side of the Cubs: the marketing and ticket sales departments. The Cubs had the luxury of an almost guaranteed 3 million gate per season. The Cubs steadily increased ticket and concession prices because it was the "hot" place to be, especially for the Gen X party in the bleachers crowd. But after the financial meltdown of 2009-2010, the economy has not had a robust or even a dead cat rebound. Attendance is down, and season ticket renewals are no longer automatic. For the first time, there really was no viable secondary market for Cub game tickets. In order to maintain cash flow, the Cubs need people sitting in those Wrigley seats.
On the baseball side, Epstein said he believed in turning around a club through upgrading the minor league system with top level prospects. He poured resources into scouting and drafting players (mostly pitchers in his first draft) and overpaying international free agents (until the new CBA capped that loophole.) Loading up the minor league system with prospects is fine, but the way Epstein has gone about the process, most of his prospects began at rookie and Class A levels. That means that the normal promotion course leaves Epstein's prospects in the minors for at least four years. If everything goes perfectly well, an Epstein drafted major league roster would come to bear in 2015.
It is a small market mentality to rely almost solely on the farm system to produce major league talent. For every organization that drafts 50 or more players a year, the odds are that only 5 or less will ever hit a major league roster. The upside of home grown talent is that a team controls the prospects longer, and they are cheaper when they are promoted to the major league roster.
The downside of the focus on minor league players is that general managers hold on to their assets like their own children. Some become enamored with a prospect's "potential" even when the player is not developing as projected; and that is the real bear in the equation: do you trust your lower level instructors to actually develop talent.
The Cubs track record for developing their own talent is poor. In the playoff teams of the 2000s, the few pitching promotions were really off-set by the big spending, free agent moves that Jim Hendry made with the Tribune deep pockets. So there was a lack of emphasis on minor league development under Hendry.
For years, experts had scoffed at the White Sox as having one of the worst farm systems. Kenny Williams used trades and selective free agent acquisitions to build his teams. His trading mentality did bring the White Sox a World Championship in 2005. That veteran team was dismantled as contracts expired, leaving the White Sox in a small market position against the Cubs TV and fan base.
But an odd thing happened in 2012. The beleaguered White Sox farm system produced a great crop of pitching prospects: Quintana, Sale, Santiago, Reed, Axelrod, Jones, Omogrosso, Septimo. The roster also contained home grown fielders in Flowers, Morel (hurt most of the year) and Vicideo. This young White Sox crew out performed expectations. This off-season, Williams and new GM Hahn have re-signed Peavy and Floyd to add depth to the starting rotation, and to maintain their rich asset base in pitching.
The Epstein single fixation method of total focus on drafting and signing prospects is the new Cub mantra of the organization. Now, the front office is telling all fans to be patient, and their patience will be rewarded "years" down the road. But for some fans, this change is a bait and switch. They were promised by Ricketts that the Cubs would remain competitive, even during a re-building process.
And the bottom line is that the Cubs can rebuild the minor league system AND remain competitive through trades and free agent signings. There is no rule against having a balanced approached to roster building in major league baseball.
There is a growing excuse from the Cubs camp that the team cannot make "good" trades because the farm system is barren. Well, that never stopped Williams and the White Sox from making deals which are now paying off. The Epstein trades have been expensive veteran talent for multiple prospects at the July trade deadline. But the other bottom 15 teams have the same blueprint in regard to rent-a-player deals for prospects. And more general managers guard their top prospects making those type of deals harder to complete.
The Cubs have given up on signing top tier free agents. One, those long term contracts tend to block their own prospects. (The example is Soriano's deal). Two, the Cubs know they will not be competitive so they are not willing to spend top dollar on free agents for another 100-loss team. Three, top free agents want to win and not babysit a journeyman roster for several years so that makes the Cubs a bad destination for most free agents.
The Cubs are plugging gaping holes with "caretaker" or stop-gap journeymen players, including career minor leaguers like Valbuena at third base. This does not sit well with the fan base who sees the White Sox with the same gaping hole at third last year, go out and get a Youkilis to play the position. So the Cubs are again painting themselves into a corner. They will have to promote position players quicker just to field a full roster - - - which adds to the risk of failure.
There is no reason why the Cubs cannot rebuild quicker than the current player development only game plan. A team can rebuild its franchise through a combination of good drafts, player development, trades and free agent signings.
Yes, Scott Baker and Dioner Navarro signing do not stoke the fires of fans as the darkness of winter falls upon the Cub collective.
Part of the problem with the Cubs is the bi-polar messages being sent by the team to its fans. When Ricketts purchased the Cubs, he said that the team was only one or two players away from winning a championship. When Epstein was announced as the new team president, Ricketts said that the team was one or two players away from championship caliber. Ricketts also promised to maintain a competitive team.
Maintaining a competitive team, in reality or in illusion, is the main goal of the business side of the Cubs: the marketing and ticket sales departments. The Cubs had the luxury of an almost guaranteed 3 million gate per season. The Cubs steadily increased ticket and concession prices because it was the "hot" place to be, especially for the Gen X party in the bleachers crowd. But after the financial meltdown of 2009-2010, the economy has not had a robust or even a dead cat rebound. Attendance is down, and season ticket renewals are no longer automatic. For the first time, there really was no viable secondary market for Cub game tickets. In order to maintain cash flow, the Cubs need people sitting in those Wrigley seats.
On the baseball side, Epstein said he believed in turning around a club through upgrading the minor league system with top level prospects. He poured resources into scouting and drafting players (mostly pitchers in his first draft) and overpaying international free agents (until the new CBA capped that loophole.) Loading up the minor league system with prospects is fine, but the way Epstein has gone about the process, most of his prospects began at rookie and Class A levels. That means that the normal promotion course leaves Epstein's prospects in the minors for at least four years. If everything goes perfectly well, an Epstein drafted major league roster would come to bear in 2015.
It is a small market mentality to rely almost solely on the farm system to produce major league talent. For every organization that drafts 50 or more players a year, the odds are that only 5 or less will ever hit a major league roster. The upside of home grown talent is that a team controls the prospects longer, and they are cheaper when they are promoted to the major league roster.
The downside of the focus on minor league players is that general managers hold on to their assets like their own children. Some become enamored with a prospect's "potential" even when the player is not developing as projected; and that is the real bear in the equation: do you trust your lower level instructors to actually develop talent.
The Cubs track record for developing their own talent is poor. In the playoff teams of the 2000s, the few pitching promotions were really off-set by the big spending, free agent moves that Jim Hendry made with the Tribune deep pockets. So there was a lack of emphasis on minor league development under Hendry.
For years, experts had scoffed at the White Sox as having one of the worst farm systems. Kenny Williams used trades and selective free agent acquisitions to build his teams. His trading mentality did bring the White Sox a World Championship in 2005. That veteran team was dismantled as contracts expired, leaving the White Sox in a small market position against the Cubs TV and fan base.
But an odd thing happened in 2012. The beleaguered White Sox farm system produced a great crop of pitching prospects: Quintana, Sale, Santiago, Reed, Axelrod, Jones, Omogrosso, Septimo. The roster also contained home grown fielders in Flowers, Morel (hurt most of the year) and Vicideo. This young White Sox crew out performed expectations. This off-season, Williams and new GM Hahn have re-signed Peavy and Floyd to add depth to the starting rotation, and to maintain their rich asset base in pitching.
The Epstein single fixation method of total focus on drafting and signing prospects is the new Cub mantra of the organization. Now, the front office is telling all fans to be patient, and their patience will be rewarded "years" down the road. But for some fans, this change is a bait and switch. They were promised by Ricketts that the Cubs would remain competitive, even during a re-building process.
And the bottom line is that the Cubs can rebuild the minor league system AND remain competitive through trades and free agent signings. There is no rule against having a balanced approached to roster building in major league baseball.
There is a growing excuse from the Cubs camp that the team cannot make "good" trades because the farm system is barren. Well, that never stopped Williams and the White Sox from making deals which are now paying off. The Epstein trades have been expensive veteran talent for multiple prospects at the July trade deadline. But the other bottom 15 teams have the same blueprint in regard to rent-a-player deals for prospects. And more general managers guard their top prospects making those type of deals harder to complete.
The Cubs have given up on signing top tier free agents. One, those long term contracts tend to block their own prospects. (The example is Soriano's deal). Two, the Cubs know they will not be competitive so they are not willing to spend top dollar on free agents for another 100-loss team. Three, top free agents want to win and not babysit a journeyman roster for several years so that makes the Cubs a bad destination for most free agents.
The Cubs are plugging gaping holes with "caretaker" or stop-gap journeymen players, including career minor leaguers like Valbuena at third base. This does not sit well with the fan base who sees the White Sox with the same gaping hole at third last year, go out and get a Youkilis to play the position. So the Cubs are again painting themselves into a corner. They will have to promote position players quicker just to field a full roster - - - which adds to the risk of failure.
There is no reason why the Cubs cannot rebuild quicker than the current player development only game plan. A team can rebuild its franchise through a combination of good drafts, player development, trades and free agent signings.
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