One thing a team needs for long term viability is a pipeline of replacement players in their system or a Plan to acquire missing pieces in a time of need. The latter costs a lot of money. It has been the private domain of the big spenders like the Yankees, who can corner a free agent market.
The Cubs under the Tribune thought that way, but signed second tier and declining players to create rosters so the team was competitive enough to sell out Wrigley. But this has changed. The Cubs are a big market team playing by small market rules because the Ricketts family does not or is unwilling to become a deep pocket spender.
So it is up to the System to be the foundation for the Future.
Based on current spring training news, it is pretty certain who will be the Cubs opening day starters. The question is who are their replacements, players the team is counting on for long term stability at the position?
1B: LaHair Replacement: Rizzo
Rizzo is Epstein and Hoyer's centerpiece for their Cubs Way Plan. Rizzo will probably be up in the middle of 2012, or quicker if LaHair turns out to be a 4A player.
2B: Barney Replacement: Torreyes
Torreyes, who was acquired in the Marshall deal, was the low A prospect that has the tool potential to be a top of the order guy. He will not arrive in the majors for at least 3 years.
SS: Castro Replacement: Baez
Some scouting lists have put Baez in the Top 3 of Cub prospects. He is very young but has impressed enough that he may move up the ranks quickly. However, Castro will block him from the major league level unless at some point the Cubs flip Castro in a major deal. That is unlikely.
3B: Stewart Replacement: Vitters
Stewart was acquired from Colorado. He is not a long term solution at third base. Vitters has been in the Cub system longer than a Rip Van Winkle nap. Vitters can bat; the question is whether he can field. The Cubs have been empty on third base prospects since Santo was traded (with exceptions of Madlock and Ramirez).
C: Soto Replacements: Castillo and Clevenger
Soto was a late blooming Rookie of the Year, then slid in production. The Tribune mentality of not playing rookies but finding veterans even for back up duty (Koy Hill) has stunted the promotion of Castillo (who has power) and Clevenger (who has batting average). The team seems to emphasis their negatives in order to justify keeping Soto on the roster. Both Castillo and Clevenger could start today if Soto was traded.
LF: Soriano Replacement: Jae-Hoon Ha
Soriano is your left fielder, like it or not, for the next three seasons. No other team wants him. No manager is going to take the wrath of benching him. Besides, Soriano is still the club's only real HR threat. Ha received a quick peek in Spring training. Some scouts believe he may be a average to bench player an put more stock in a high risk/high reward type of rookie like Reggie Golden. In either event, no rookie ball player will be ready for the majors until 2015.
CF: Byrd Replacement: B. Jackson
Byrd is in the last year of his contract. He may be moved before the trade deadline to open a space for the Cubs #1 prospect, B. Jackson. Jackson has excelled at both AA and AAA last season. He is considered a potential 5 tool player, and a #3 hitter in the order. He will make his debut in 2012.
RF: DeJesus Replacement: Szczur
DeJesus was Epstein's first Cub transaction, so it is likely that DeJesus will be the starter for 2012 and 2013. But Szczur has been on the fast track since he was drafted as a football player out of college. He has the power bat potential that the team will need to fill quickly. He may be a surprise call up in 2012 but will press for a position in 2013.
Two positions are ripe for a turnover very soon: 1B and CF
Three positions could turnover in 2013: CF, 3B and C
The rest, LF, RF, SS and 2B, will not have a new regular until probably 2015. And that represents 50% of your position starters. And of those four slots, you really need to upgrade all of them except Castro at short.
