March 3, 2012

LINE UP QUESTIONS

The early debate in spring training is who will be Sveum's lead off man. When DeJesus was signed, it was stated that he would be the lead off guy. But now, the old grumblings of Soriano returning to the top has surfaced and not yet been discounted by Sveum. Sveum continually remarks that he does not have any traditional one through six hitters at his disposal. In other words, Sveum has nothing to work with.


But here are the projected Cubs starters:


Player         HR-RBI-AVG-OBP


DeJesus rf    10- 46 .240  .323 
Byrd cf           9-35  .276  .324
Soriano lf     26-88 .244  .289
Stewart 3b      0-6 .156   .243
Castro ss      10-66 .307  .341
Barney 2b      2-43  .276  .313
LaHair 1b       2-6   .288  .377
Soto c           17-54  .228  .310

In a pure "small ball world," where OBP is most important, you would stack your lineup with the highest OBP hitters:
1. LaHair .377
2. Castro .341
3. Byrd .324
4. DeJesus .323
5. Barney .313
6. Soto .310
7. Soriano .289
8. Stewart .243

But that line up looks really odd.  Another philosophy is to put best base hitters on top and best RBI men from #3 down then around the line up card.

1. Stewart 6
2. LaHair 6
3. Soriano 88
4. Castro 66
5. Soto 54
6. DeJesus 46
7. Barney 43
8. Byrd 35

In a similar vein, run your best HR hitters from #3 and around back to the top.

1. Barney 2
2. Stewart 0
3. Soriano 26
4. Soto 17
5. Castro 10
6. DeJesus 10
7. Byrd 9
8. LaHair 2

If you assign points to all these batting orders to get a composite line up, here is what that would look like (lower number, higher in the order):

1. Castro (11)
    LaHair (11)
    Stewart (11)
4. Soriano (13)
    Barney (13)
6. Soto (15)
7. DeJesus (16)
8. Byrd (18)

You cannot have three players bat lead off at the same time (but that would be an interesting experiment in surrealism), but it does give a sense that the Cubs batter are a mish-mosh of mediocrity. The only thing that seems clear could be Soto, DeJesus and Byrd at the bottom of the order. The Cubs expect Stewart to have a massive rebound to middle of the order power hitting season. But that is not a guarantee. The Cubs have no traditional lead off man so Castro, Barney, or DeJesus could be plugged into that role.

Will Sveum get a set line up by the end of spring training and stick with it? Or will he fiddle with it like Lou Piniella did on a daily basis?