Another comparison: this year's starting rotation vs. 2011.
Opening Day Starter:
1. RHP Ryan Dempster, same
Dempster is the last year of his contract. He is not the "ace" of the staff, just the most senior. Along with Kerry Wood, he is the face of the team - - - which ownership still needs to stress since ticket sales have been less than stellar. Dempster is in the swan song of his career. It is symptomatic that he gets the final curtain call on Opening Day for a team projected to win only 69 games.
2. RHP Matt Garza over Carlos Zambrano
Jim Hendry traded a boat load of prospects ("assets" according to new management) for Matt Garza. Garza at times looked dominate, but also labored through outings. He only scored ten wins in his Cubs debut season; not ace worthy even on a bad team. Zambrano turned out to be the best of the Three Amigo stud prospects (with Prior and Wood) but Z's behavior issues led to his downfall. Garza is a slight upgrade over Zambrano as the #2 starter.
3. RHP Jeff Samardzija over Matt Garza
This is another classic Hendry 2.0 move: take a very good relief pitcher and convert him into a starter. In essence, Samardzija is replacing Andrew Cashner in the Transformer Pitcher experiment this season. Cashner blew out his arm after his first start which helped create a circus of bad megshift fill-in clowns.
Besides changing roles, Samardzija moves up into the rotation at #3 which adds pressure. Garza as last year's #3 is clearly a better starting pitcher (especially in durability and experience) so this move is a downgrade from last season and probable slow motion train wreck in progress.
4. RHP Chris Volstad over Randy Wells
In a rare Cub move, there was an actual competition this spring for this starting pitching spot. In 29 starts last season, Volstad was 5-13, 4.89 ERA, 1.425 WHIP. Wells, in 23 starts, was 7-6, 4.99 ERA, 1.389 WHIP. They both pitched well in camp; Volstad had his worst outing after Wells was demoted to AAA Iowa. At this point, they are interchangeable average to below average starters so this position is a push going into this season.
5. LHP Paul Maholm over Randy Cashner
This is a no brainer. Cashner should have never been moved into a starting role. He was a closer in college and appeared to be moving toward replacing Marmol in the future. But some GMs have the desire to have power arms in the rotation (Clemens, Nolan Ryan) but fail to realize the difficulty of harnessing one inning power reliever into six inning starter. In 26 starts last season, Maholm went 6-14 for the Pirates, with a 3.66 ERA and a good 1.294 WHIP. However, Maholm is injury prone which is why the Cubs did not push him along during spring training. In essence, Maholm is replacing former Cub Ted Lilly as the Cubs lone lefty starter. In Lilly's last full season with the Cubs, 2009, he was 12-9, 3.10 ERA, with a stellar 1.056 WHIP. Anything close to Lilly's mark by Maholm would be a huge upgrade at the #5 starter slot.
For 2012, the Cubs have made 3 changes to the starting 5 which quite the turnover in personnel.
Garza, as #2, is a slight upgrade from last season; Samardzija as #3 is a downgrade; but Maholm, if he can stay healthy, is an upgrade at #5. So, on paper, the Cubs 2012 rotation is better than 2011.
