The 10 & 5 rule in baseball means that a player with 10 years of major league experience, and five with his current club, can veto any trade. This rule will come up often in the next two months as Ryan Dempster situation unfolds by the trade deadline.
Dempster is having a career year at age 35. He is 0-3, 2.14 ERA, a career low 1.061 WHIP and career high K/BB ratio of 3.33. With starting pitching injuries on contenders such as the Phillies, Dodgers, Rangers and Cardinals, Dempster will be in high demand.
But Dempster may not want to move. He has been a Cub since 2004. He has been the "good soldier," being a closer when needed, then returning to the rotation. With Kerry Wood retired, Dempster is the last of the pitchers from the overachieving 2000 championship run clubs. Dempster has assumed the leadership role in the media. He has the traits the Ricketts like: loyal family man, charitable foundation, good media presence and team spokesman. So one part of the organization would want to keep him around (like Wood), while the rebuilders would like to get young "assets" in a trade. In all probability, Dempster would probably veto a trade this season to remain close to home with his family.
Dempster is in the final year of his contract. He would be a free agent after the season. However, SunTimes reports that contract talks on an extension are being re-examined. This is going to be Dempster's last professional contract, so he probably has the most leverage in the situation.
The question is whether it makes any sense to re-sign Dempster at $15 million/season.
If you look at the current Cubs roster, there may be 10 players that have a future in the organization, and maybe five that you would want to build your team around (Castro, Maholm, Garza, LaHair, Samardzija).
Garza is having an awful run of starts lately; whether that it concurrent with trade rumors is unclear. Maholm started off slow, but has been a consistent #4 in the rotation. But Maholm could also be a valuable trade chip as a lefty starter.
GM Jed Hoyer stated that "pitching will be a priority" during this year's June draft. We have heard this line before; Hendry and Wilkens overloaded on pitching selections for more than a decade. However, only one has panned out to be a current starter, Samardzija, and the jury is still out on whether he can put together a full season. So if the focus will be re-stocking the organization with young pitching talent (which means at least 2.5 years before they would be expected to try out for a major league roster spot), do the Cubs need to retain veterans like Dempster, Garza and Maholm until the new crop of draftees arrives in 2015?
Starting is not the only pitching issue to address. The Cubs have gone through 5 closers so far this season. Marmol lost his job, got hurt, and now has returned from rehab as a middle reliever. Dolis was handed the closer job, looked good then really bad, and now was demoted to Iowa to "work on his control." Former Hendry draft choices Wells, Coleman and Russell are failed starters who are now attempting to hold on to the collapsing bullpen. It appears that Coleman, Russell and journeyman Camp are now the closers by committee under Sveum. If pedigree were a clue, Russell would have an edge but he does not have his father's dominant fastball to be an effective strikeout closer. It is interesting to note that AAA closer Blake Parker is not in the discussion to become the Cubs closer.
As noted as the season started, the new management blew up the bullpen in order to shore up the starting rotation. However, the starting rotation has been shaky and the bullpen has been awful. Now, do you blow up the quality starters in order to shore up the bullpen and add arms to the minor league system via trades?
In one respect, that is the (Dempster) $15 million question. Do you spend that 2013 money on Dempster, or on signing Garza? Do you trade Dempster and/or Garza to free up $22 million and hit the free agent market in 2013? Besides Travis Wood, are there any starting pitchers ready to go in the system for this year or next?
With a top ten pick in the draft, the Cubs probably should focus in on the best available college starter with the game plan to sign him quickly, and assign him to AA to begin the fast track to a rotation spot in 2013. A rush promotion adds to the risk of a prospect busting, but if you listen to the grumblings of the Cub fans as they watch the product on the field the Cubs may not have time to be patient.
