The Cubs have a monumental work load this off-season. Whether ownership and management realize it is another story.
Front and center is a new managerial hire. The question is whether the new manager will be more effective than Maddon, or will he be handcuffed by front office hires. Maddon had to accept the rotation of coaches hired by the front office. A new, experienced manager would want to hire his "own guys" to make sure his philosophies are implemented with the players. But the Cubs clearly do not operate that way. The front office has embrace high technology and advanced statistics to the point that they believe a baseball game is no different than a computer game. It is more than likely the new Cubs skipper will be a figurehead manager.
For a long time, we have been on the roster construction issue. The Esptein Cubs have drafted quality hitters, but only Kris Bryant has proven to meet expectations when not injured. Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora and Ian Happ have become platoon players. You cannot field a team of .235 hitters and expect to win.
Where are the area needing upgraded improvements?
1. SECOND BASE. There has been a convention of players who tried to play the position. No one has made a lasting impression as a starting second baseman. Theo & Company have fallen into the Jim Hendry trap of drafting and promoting multiple second basemen to play various positions (not well). As it currently stands, is Addison Russell your starting 2020 second baseman? (cringe). Or is it unexpected rookie call up Nico Hoerner? (maybe).
2. CENTER FIELD. Albert Almora had an opportunity to take the CF position but failed. He cannot hit major league pitching. Jason Heyward played center to the detriment of his defense and his offense. When he was playing right field and batting 5th or 6th in the line-up, he was nearly a .300 hitter. When Maddon moved him to center and lead off (out of necessity) he crashed to a .117 hitter. Everyone expects Heyward's untradeable contract to be parked in Right Field in 2020.
3. CLOSER/BULLPEN. Brandon Morrow was a dead money contract from the get-go. Craig Kimbrel is looking like Morrow 2.0. The bullpen is going to be churned and burned again because the Cubs minor league system is not producing any quality arms. Dillon Maples has a fastball but no control. James Norwood has no long run consistency. Duane Underwood could be the next Carl Edwards. You have the journeyman club of David Phelps, Danny Hultzen, Alec Mills, Rowan Wick, Brad Weick and Kyle Ryan. Of that group, maybe two or three will stay on the roster.
4. STARTING ROTATION. The starters suddenly got old and bad. It was a year long struggle just to complete five innings. Jose Quintana was the most consistent pitcher but he was not great. The professor, Kyle Hendricks, got schooled for most of the second half. Cole Hamels will not return. Jon Lester may have no gas left in the tank. The fifth starter has been a lingering problem since Tyler Chatwood failed to be demoted to the bullpen. The Cubs have only two potential arms in minors: Adbert Alzolay, who was rocked in his spot starts, and Colin Rea, a rehab pitcher who was the best player on the 2019 Iowa Cubs. There may be two or three openings in the rotation for next season.
5. LEFT FIELD. Fans like Kyle Schwarber in left. The front office loves Schwarbie. But even with the Cubs own mantra about big data requirements like OBP, Schwarber fails. His defense is still sub par. His offense is confined to a homer or bust mentality. With his natural short swing, he takes too many pitches and strikes out too often. Is he a trade candidate? Yes. Will the Cubs get a good return? Probably not because DH candidates do not command much trade value. Besides, which team is desperate to find a young Adam Dunn?
There are at least 10 positions that need to be upgraded by the Cubs. Ten. That is an expected 40% roster turnover. It has to be done. It has to be painful. The Cubs window for a championship slams shut in two years when Bryant, Baez and Rizzo become free agents.
Ownership does not appear inclined to spend money in free agent to fix holes. The pending Cubs network is looking like a financial disaster. The Marquee Network has no distribution platform. Cable and dish-tv services are rebelling against regional sports channel subscriber fees as cord cutting continues to rake the industry.
The front office will have to try its stars in order to bolster the roster. But Theo does not like to trade "his guys." Do you trade Bryant for 2 or 3 major league ready players plus prospects? Two years ago that was unthinkable. Today, it is a viable option. But Bryant may not have the most trade value. Javy Baez is the most exciting player. Willson Contreras is a rare catcher with power. Baez and Contreras could fetch the most off-season trade returns. Both are not Theo & Company draft picks but they are part of the core and would be hard to replace.
But something will have to change or the Cubs will continue to slide in the NL Central.
Showing posts with label trades. Show all posts
Showing posts with label trades. Show all posts
October 15, 2019
September 10, 2019
THE TEAR DOWN PROJECT
The baseball world was shocked when the Red Sox dismissed President of Baseball Operations Dave Dombrowski less than a year after winning the World Series.
The reasoning for the termination of the man who helped produce a championship is vague. There is speculation that there was a rift between baseball operations and ownership/business side of the organization. There is speculation that the Red Sox are saddled with big money contracts that can quickly turn into dead money deals. There is always the rivalry with the Yankees, who have overcome 26 injuries to runaway with the AL East title.
Ricketts fancies himself as a follower of the Red Sox baseball operations. He wants to create an outside venue for fans (and profit) like Boston did around Fenway Park. The Cubs also have a split organizational structure: one baseball side and one business side. It has been clear for years that the Cubs baseball side has been at odds with the business side over payroll and spending issues.
Theo Epstein is also sitting on several potential dead money deals with the second highest payroll in the majors. He also has brought in many new players who have not helped the team surge into first place. The team is currently floundering in second place in the NL Central and losing a grip on the second wild card.
Someone will be the scapegoat. He was chosen last off-season: Joe Maddon. Maddon did not get a contract extension because the team does not want him (and his $6 million salary). Theo has been rotating coaches in Maddon's dugout to little success. Four batting coaches in four years has not improved the offense. Pitching has become erratic at best. Baseball is trending toward management hiring cheap, inexperienced and controllable managers. Maddon does not fit that role.
The farm system has not produced any sustainable help for this team. In fact, the farm system rates near the bottom because Theo has not drafted and developed one starting pitcher in his tenure with Chicago. This major flaw has a cascade affect on the team and its financing as he paid dearly to acquire pitching. With little help in the minors available, this off-season will come after a disappointing season. What will happen?
It is possible that the roster will have to be blown up. But it would have to be a dramatic change in attitude because Theo overvalues "his guys." He does not trade "his guys." He always talks about his championship core of starters. But many of these core players are breaking down with injuries, underperformance or pending free agency. The farm system is devoid of talent to make quality trades. Trades would have to be made from the current 40 man roster.
The current roster is filled with platoon situations, utility players and aging veterans. The starting rotation will be Lester, Hendricks, Darvish and Quintana. Hamels will not be re-signed. The bullpen will have to be retooled as well.
Your 2020 outfield appears to be Schwarber, Happ/Almora and Heyward. You cannot trade Heyward's contract. Schwarber has turned into an Adam Dunn DH. Happ and Almora are too inconsistent at the plate to have a .225 platoon in CF. Can you trade Happ and/or Almora? Yes, but they would get little in return because they are not proven starters. Can you trade Schwarber? Yes, but a DH/LF will not bring any great return.
Your 2020 infield appears to be Bryant, Baez, Russell/Garcia/Kemp/Hoerner and Rizzo. Rizzo is tradeable but lost in first base depth throughout the league. No one is desperate for a new first baseman. Bryant and Baez are good trade chips. Bryant, if healthy, could bring in 5 players in return (including quality minor league prospects). Baez could bring in a good haul, too. But the one who could bring in the most MLB ready starters is Contreras because a power hitting, good catcher is very hard to find. Could the Cubs have a Caritini/Lecroy platoon in 2020? Yes, but its production would pale without Contreras.
If the 2019 Cubs get brushed aside like last season, then wholesale changes should be on the way. The business side is going to push hard for cost reductions since the new Cubs network launch is going to be a financial dud. If the Cubs management believe this current team is still a championship caliber one, then nothing will change and the final result will be disappointing fans. Fans could take trading away the heart of your core players if you got exciting young talent in return (since the championship is still in everyone's back pocket.) Otherwise, this is a slow and painful death to the bottom of the standings.
The reasoning for the termination of the man who helped produce a championship is vague. There is speculation that there was a rift between baseball operations and ownership/business side of the organization. There is speculation that the Red Sox are saddled with big money contracts that can quickly turn into dead money deals. There is always the rivalry with the Yankees, who have overcome 26 injuries to runaway with the AL East title.
Ricketts fancies himself as a follower of the Red Sox baseball operations. He wants to create an outside venue for fans (and profit) like Boston did around Fenway Park. The Cubs also have a split organizational structure: one baseball side and one business side. It has been clear for years that the Cubs baseball side has been at odds with the business side over payroll and spending issues.
Theo Epstein is also sitting on several potential dead money deals with the second highest payroll in the majors. He also has brought in many new players who have not helped the team surge into first place. The team is currently floundering in second place in the NL Central and losing a grip on the second wild card.
Someone will be the scapegoat. He was chosen last off-season: Joe Maddon. Maddon did not get a contract extension because the team does not want him (and his $6 million salary). Theo has been rotating coaches in Maddon's dugout to little success. Four batting coaches in four years has not improved the offense. Pitching has become erratic at best. Baseball is trending toward management hiring cheap, inexperienced and controllable managers. Maddon does not fit that role.
The farm system has not produced any sustainable help for this team. In fact, the farm system rates near the bottom because Theo has not drafted and developed one starting pitcher in his tenure with Chicago. This major flaw has a cascade affect on the team and its financing as he paid dearly to acquire pitching. With little help in the minors available, this off-season will come after a disappointing season. What will happen?
It is possible that the roster will have to be blown up. But it would have to be a dramatic change in attitude because Theo overvalues "his guys." He does not trade "his guys." He always talks about his championship core of starters. But many of these core players are breaking down with injuries, underperformance or pending free agency. The farm system is devoid of talent to make quality trades. Trades would have to be made from the current 40 man roster.
The current roster is filled with platoon situations, utility players and aging veterans. The starting rotation will be Lester, Hendricks, Darvish and Quintana. Hamels will not be re-signed. The bullpen will have to be retooled as well.
Your 2020 outfield appears to be Schwarber, Happ/Almora and Heyward. You cannot trade Heyward's contract. Schwarber has turned into an Adam Dunn DH. Happ and Almora are too inconsistent at the plate to have a .225 platoon in CF. Can you trade Happ and/or Almora? Yes, but they would get little in return because they are not proven starters. Can you trade Schwarber? Yes, but a DH/LF will not bring any great return.
Your 2020 infield appears to be Bryant, Baez, Russell/Garcia/Kemp/Hoerner and Rizzo. Rizzo is tradeable but lost in first base depth throughout the league. No one is desperate for a new first baseman. Bryant and Baez are good trade chips. Bryant, if healthy, could bring in 5 players in return (including quality minor league prospects). Baez could bring in a good haul, too. But the one who could bring in the most MLB ready starters is Contreras because a power hitting, good catcher is very hard to find. Could the Cubs have a Caritini/Lecroy platoon in 2020? Yes, but its production would pale without Contreras.
If the 2019 Cubs get brushed aside like last season, then wholesale changes should be on the way. The business side is going to push hard for cost reductions since the new Cubs network launch is going to be a financial dud. If the Cubs management believe this current team is still a championship caliber one, then nothing will change and the final result will be disappointing fans. Fans could take trading away the heart of your core players if you got exciting young talent in return (since the championship is still in everyone's back pocket.) Otherwise, this is a slow and painful death to the bottom of the standings.
June 19, 2019
TRADE HERO
The story line this morning is the myopic chant that the
Cubs should have never traded last night's Sox hero, Jimenez, to
the hated White Sox for SP Quintana.
There is gripe that Quintana was not the solid #2 starter that the
Cubs got in the trade, but Q has amassed a 3.9 pitching WAR since
his mid-2017 acquisition.
Jimenez may turn out to be great, or OK. Jorge Soler was sent to
KC for a closer (Wade Davis) but Soler was an injury prone
underachiever since he got to the Royals. This year he seems to
getting better: .245 BA, 20 HR, 52 RBI (third in the AL).
But you have to remember the fan debates that wanted the Cubs
to trade the new favorite, Schwarber, to the White Sox for Chris Sale.
That never happened. Schwarber has yet to blossom into the
.300 hitting power monster Baby Bambino. Sale continues to be
one of the best pitchers in the AL. (A 14.5 pitching WAR since he
arrive in Boston in 2017).
The Cubs traded Gleybar Torres, another top prospect, to get
Chapman from the Yanks (which was the move that won the Series).
Chapman was an expensive rental because Torres has 4.9 WAR
in only 190 games.
Trades are not won or lost when they are made. And they are not
evaluated based on one game against the team that traded you.
The Cubs picked up Quintana because he was reliable and cheap
($10 million/year). We know that the Cubs are in a huge budget
brick wall so finding a reliable starter for under $10 million is
impossible. (Chatwood still costs $13 million/year).
The bottom line is you cannot say at this moment it is a bad trade
even when your former Number One prospect comes back to
bite you.
Cubs should have never traded last night's Sox hero, Jimenez, to
the hated White Sox for SP Quintana.
There is gripe that Quintana was not the solid #2 starter that the
Cubs got in the trade, but Q has amassed a 3.9 pitching WAR since
his mid-2017 acquisition.
Jimenez may turn out to be great, or OK. Jorge Soler was sent to
KC for a closer (Wade Davis) but Soler was an injury prone
underachiever since he got to the Royals. This year he seems to
getting better: .245 BA, 20 HR, 52 RBI (third in the AL).
But you have to remember the fan debates that wanted the Cubs
to trade the new favorite, Schwarber, to the White Sox for Chris Sale.
That never happened. Schwarber has yet to blossom into the
.300 hitting power monster Baby Bambino. Sale continues to be
one of the best pitchers in the AL. (A 14.5 pitching WAR since he
arrive in Boston in 2017).
The Cubs traded Gleybar Torres, another top prospect, to get
Chapman from the Yanks (which was the move that won the Series).
Chapman was an expensive rental because Torres has 4.9 WAR
in only 190 games.
Trades are not won or lost when they are made. And they are not
evaluated based on one game against the team that traded you.
The Cubs picked up Quintana because he was reliable and cheap
($10 million/year). We know that the Cubs are in a huge budget
brick wall so finding a reliable starter for under $10 million is
impossible. (Chatwood still costs $13 million/year).
The bottom line is you cannot say at this moment it is a bad trade
even when your former Number One prospect comes back to
bite you.
August 28, 2018
BOOSTER SHOTS
Since the Cubs acquired second baseman Daniel Murphy, the team is 6-0.
Murphy is hitting .407, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .448 OBP and 0.4 WAR since leading off for the Cubs. He solved two problems: the lead off hitter slot and the weak offensive production. He was the spark plug that ignited the Cubs current six game winning streak.
Cole Hamels has been a godsend to the Cubs rotation. Not only has he taken the place of Yu Darvish, he has pushed the other starters to perform better. In his five starts (all Cub victories), he is 4-0, 0.79 ERA, 0.941 WHIP. As a veteran presence, he took some pressure off Jon Lester to lead a shaky staff into the final two month grind of the season.
On the South Side, the White Sox starting pitchers have a streak of quality starts. Michael Kopech's debut in the rain was impressive, as was his second start. He is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA. But even more impressive has been Carlos Rodon. He has solidified his role as a #1 starter (and was one of the reasons the Sox traded Chris Sale). Rodon is 6-3, 2.70 ERA, 1.007 WHIP. Young starters Reynolaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito have been coming on strong after a rocky first half of the season.
The 2019 rotation is starting to take shape very quickly. A White Sox staff of Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito and a fifth starter from Carson Fullmer, Dylan Covery, Jordan Stepehns, Tyler Danish or Donn Roach will be solid. After completing the starting pitching part of the rebuild, it should be easier to consolidate the offense when Elroy Jimenez joins the team in late April, 2019.
It is interesting to note that the addition of a player or two can really turn around a ball club with both excitement and enhanced performance.
Murphy is hitting .407, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .448 OBP and 0.4 WAR since leading off for the Cubs. He solved two problems: the lead off hitter slot and the weak offensive production. He was the spark plug that ignited the Cubs current six game winning streak.
Cole Hamels has been a godsend to the Cubs rotation. Not only has he taken the place of Yu Darvish, he has pushed the other starters to perform better. In his five starts (all Cub victories), he is 4-0, 0.79 ERA, 0.941 WHIP. As a veteran presence, he took some pressure off Jon Lester to lead a shaky staff into the final two month grind of the season.
On the South Side, the White Sox starting pitchers have a streak of quality starts. Michael Kopech's debut in the rain was impressive, as was his second start. He is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA. But even more impressive has been Carlos Rodon. He has solidified his role as a #1 starter (and was one of the reasons the Sox traded Chris Sale). Rodon is 6-3, 2.70 ERA, 1.007 WHIP. Young starters Reynolaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito have been coming on strong after a rocky first half of the season.
The 2019 rotation is starting to take shape very quickly. A White Sox staff of Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito and a fifth starter from Carson Fullmer, Dylan Covery, Jordan Stepehns, Tyler Danish or Donn Roach will be solid. After completing the starting pitching part of the rebuild, it should be easier to consolidate the offense when Elroy Jimenez joins the team in late April, 2019.
It is interesting to note that the addition of a player or two can really turn around a ball club with both excitement and enhanced performance.
August 2, 2018
RECAP DEALS
The Cubs made the following moves:
Players acquired: LHP Cole Hamels (TEX), RHP Brandon Kintzler (WSH), RHP Jesse Chavez (TEX)
Players traded: RHP Eddie Butler (TEX), RHP Rollie Lacy (TEX), RHP Jhon Romero (WSH), LHP Tyler Thomas (TEX), player to be named later (TEX)
MLB.com notes that the Cubs were able to reinforce their bullpen and rotation without losing any top prospects, improving their playoff odds in the short term without compromising their future.
Well, the Cubs farm system is extremely weak, near the bottom in most current rankings. The Cubs gave up Class A prospects for the three pitchers. A quick scouting report shows why.
Hamels is at the end of his career. He was great in 2008. He was traded to the Rangers and had a good season and excellent post season. But this year he has been horrible at home and okay on the road. He is no longer the ace of a pitching staff. He may be best viewed as a hang-around fifth starter in the mode of last year's John Lackey.
Kintzler has been a meh middle reliever for the Nationals. Nothing special except his veteran status. The Cubs bullpen burnout is happening quicker this season than in Maddon's recent past. Maddon has rarely used AAA call-ups for innings unless he was pressed to the extreme (and they failed and got sent back down.) Maddon may also be getting Dusty Baker scared of using some of his staff (Wilson, Duensing, Chatwood) in high leverage situations.
Chavez may be the best pitcher of the bunch. Scouts call him a "rubber arm" pitcher. He throws strikes, challenges hitters and so far been quite effective. He may teach other pitchers not be throwers who nibble on the corners because they are afraid their pitches will get hit. Chavez has the reputation of throwing his best stuff in the zone daring the hitter to make contact. As we all know, even the best hitters fail to get a hit 70 percent of the time. Patient hitters with non-confident pitchers who lack control can get on base more than 40 percent of the time.
The move that could have shored up the rotation would have been to trade for former Cub farm product Chris Archer. The Rays received two major league players from the Pirates, both under the age of 25. To make that deal, it seems the Cubs would have had to trade Russell or Happ and Edwards or Strop to get Archer.
But in the end, the Cubs think they have enough starters in Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Hamels, Montgomery, Chatwood and rehabbing Darvish plus Smyly to make it to the post-season.
Players acquired: LHP Cole Hamels (TEX), RHP Brandon Kintzler (WSH), RHP Jesse Chavez (TEX)
Players traded: RHP Eddie Butler (TEX), RHP Rollie Lacy (TEX), RHP Jhon Romero (WSH), LHP Tyler Thomas (TEX), player to be named later (TEX)
MLB.com notes that the Cubs were able to reinforce their bullpen and rotation without losing any top prospects, improving their playoff odds in the short term without compromising their future.
Well, the Cubs farm system is extremely weak, near the bottom in most current rankings. The Cubs gave up Class A prospects for the three pitchers. A quick scouting report shows why.
Hamels is at the end of his career. He was great in 2008. He was traded to the Rangers and had a good season and excellent post season. But this year he has been horrible at home and okay on the road. He is no longer the ace of a pitching staff. He may be best viewed as a hang-around fifth starter in the mode of last year's John Lackey.
Kintzler has been a meh middle reliever for the Nationals. Nothing special except his veteran status. The Cubs bullpen burnout is happening quicker this season than in Maddon's recent past. Maddon has rarely used AAA call-ups for innings unless he was pressed to the extreme (and they failed and got sent back down.) Maddon may also be getting Dusty Baker scared of using some of his staff (Wilson, Duensing, Chatwood) in high leverage situations.
Chavez may be the best pitcher of the bunch. Scouts call him a "rubber arm" pitcher. He throws strikes, challenges hitters and so far been quite effective. He may teach other pitchers not be throwers who nibble on the corners because they are afraid their pitches will get hit. Chavez has the reputation of throwing his best stuff in the zone daring the hitter to make contact. As we all know, even the best hitters fail to get a hit 70 percent of the time. Patient hitters with non-confident pitchers who lack control can get on base more than 40 percent of the time.
The move that could have shored up the rotation would have been to trade for former Cub farm product Chris Archer. The Rays received two major league players from the Pirates, both under the age of 25. To make that deal, it seems the Cubs would have had to trade Russell or Happ and Edwards or Strop to get Archer.
But in the end, the Cubs think they have enough starters in Lester, Quintana, Hendricks, Hamels, Montgomery, Chatwood and rehabbing Darvish plus Smyly to make it to the post-season.
July 25, 2018
SECOND HALF ISSUES
The Cubs surged into first before the AS break, but now have begun to wobble in the heat of July.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
Kyle Hendricks is not the old Hendricks, a pinpoint professor in the art of pitching. Teams have finally figured him out. An 88 mph fastball is not his out pitch. Batters are now sitting on change ups that are in the hitting zone. As Hendricks relies more on off-speed stuff on the corners, umpires are taking away is major advantage by calling more balls. Patient hitters and smaller strike calls is making Hendricks an average pitcher. It could change if he uses his fastball more to keep the batters honest and off-guard.
Kris Bryant was pulled from the line-up because of his shoulder issue. He said before the ASG that it was an injury that he will have to deal with throughout the season. But word is that he cannot even swing the bat. That means a probable DL stint and the return of Bote at third. Having Bryant out of the line-up puts more pressure on Rizzo, who is trying to hit his way out of his own personal slump by leading off. But Maddon will have to move Rizzo out of the #1 spot to increase scoring chances if Bryant goes on the DL.
Yu Darvish is becoming a real bad issue. The Cubs were happy that Darvish yesterday threw 16 pitches off the mound after three weeks of rest. Sixteen pitches is not a start. It seems that Darvish's progress has been painstakingly slow. The front office is counting more on Drew Smyly coming off Tommy John surgery than Darvish. Montgomery was great when he first took Darvish's spot in the rotation, but now after a half dozen starts, he is falling back into being an average starter (which ironically is better than the Cubs original 4th and 5th starters).
Javy Baez is trying to do too much. He got throw out again for aggressive baserunning. He needs to calm down and let the team win games. Baez is the Cubs current MVP. He is the only true five tool player on the roster who can make exciting plays at the plate and in the field. But Baez has a history of coming unglued at the bat. Let us see if he has matured enough to adjust to his new leader-by-example role.
The bullpen was re-tooled in order to be ready for the post-season. Brandon Morrow was the new closer, and Maddon kept him on the light work load. But Morrow got hurt anyway (which is his M.O.). The rotation has been sub-par all year, with very few quality starts. More times than not, starters are barely throwing five innings - - - which taxes the bullpen to the extreme that now four different position players have thrown in relief. Jesse Chavez acquisition was needed to find a "rubber" arm veteran who can do long relief, short relief, close and spot start. But asking Chavez to be the bullpen godsend is asking too much.
The Cubs offense still runs in feast or famine mode. They score a lot of runs, or they score very little. Consistency in the batting order could be blamed for the hot and cold mentality, but Maddon would disagree. He wants to use his entire roster to keep them fresh and in the game. But since the ASG, he has literally given up midway through 2 games (for losses).
The Cubs probably need to make a big move at the trade deadline, but they do not have any great minor league prospects to trade. And Theo and Jed are in love with "their" guys to trade away Happ, Schwarber or Almora.
December 8, 2016
REVERSE COURSE FULL SPEED AHEAD
In the previous two off-seasons, White Sox GM Hahn was credited as winning the winter by the moves he made to bring major league talent in an effort to win now. But all those acquisitions underperformed to the point of discontent both in the locker room and stands.
At mid-season, Hahn said he was unhappy with the performance of his club. He said the off-season would signal which direction the team was going to take. It is apparent this is a total, painful, four year rebuild process.
Ace Chris Sale had worn out his welcome with President Kenny Williams. The Sox could not win with him, so with his three year $48 million ownership friendly deal, the White Sox acquired four Red Sox prospects, including the #1 overall position prospect in Yoan Moncada.
Boston also sent highly touted pitching prospect Michael Kopech, outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and right-hander Victor Diaz to Chicago. Moncada is the #1 ranked in the game, according to MLBPipeline.com. The deal marks the first time in at least 25 years that baseball's No. 1 prospect has been traded, based on the rankings done by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.
If that was not enough, Hahn stunned the winter meetings by trading OF Adam Eaton to the Nationals for their three best prospects, including the #1 pitching prospect in the game.
In order to acquire Eaton, the Nationals traded Lucas Giolito (#1 prospect), Reynaldo Lopez (#2 prospect) and and Dane Dunning (#6 prospect, last year's first round pick). The three right-handed pitchers are very young, but Gilolito and Lopez have tasted limited major league action. Lopez was stellar in some of his starts with a plus fastball and killer curve. Giolito is baseball's number 3 overall and Lopez comes in at No. 38, but some scouts believe Lopez may have more upside.
So in a matter of 24 hours, the White Sox have turned their bottom quarter farm system into a Top 5 organization. The minors are now loaded with Top 100 prospects: 1., Moncada, 3.Giolito, 30 Kopech, 38 Lopez, 58 Carson Fulmer, 80 Zack Collins. The Top 10 Sox prospects are now 1 Moncada, 2, Giolito, 3 Kopech, 4 Lopez, 5. Fulmer, 6. Collins, 7 Spencer Adams, 8 Zack Burdi, 9 Luis Basabe, and 10 Dunning. Six of the Top Ten White Sox prospects have arrived in the past 24 hours.
The crazy thing is that the White Sox had good quality pitching prospects before the two deals. On the prospect list are pitchers Alec Hansen (14), LHP Jordan Guerreo (16), Jordan Stephens (17), Tyler Danish (21), LHP Brian Clark (22), and Chris Beck (24). No wonder no one blinks at the prospect that Hahn could pull the trigger and trade SP Jose Quintana to reap the same type of return as Chris Sale.
It is true that most prospects to not pan out to be impact major league players. But the Sox now have so much pitching depth that it is more probable than not that in the near future they will field a home grown, dominating starting rotation which would be the envy of the league.
At mid-season, Hahn said he was unhappy with the performance of his club. He said the off-season would signal which direction the team was going to take. It is apparent this is a total, painful, four year rebuild process.
Ace Chris Sale had worn out his welcome with President Kenny Williams. The Sox could not win with him, so with his three year $48 million ownership friendly deal, the White Sox acquired four Red Sox prospects, including the #1 overall position prospect in Yoan Moncada.
Boston also sent highly touted pitching prospect Michael Kopech, outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and right-hander Victor Diaz to Chicago. Moncada is the #1 ranked in the game, according to MLBPipeline.com. The deal marks the first time in at least 25 years that baseball's No. 1 prospect has been traded, based on the rankings done by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.
If that was not enough, Hahn stunned the winter meetings by trading OF Adam Eaton to the Nationals for their three best prospects, including the #1 pitching prospect in the game.
Eaton, 28, is under contract for the next 5 years. He had a freak 6.0 WAR last season after moving from CF to RF. He had been one of the most productive
outfielders in the Majors during the past three years even though he has
flown a bit under the radar. Since 2014, he has accumulated a 12.7 WAR according to FanGraphs, which ranks
10th among all Major League outfielders. The locals who watched Eaton play on a daily basis were underwhelmed by his play, especially in CF. But the Nationals are going to play him in center so to move their best prospect, Trea Turner, to shortstop. Some believe that Eaton will wind up in RF in Washington because their home park has a large CF area that Eaton cannot cover. Bryce Harper, who is looking for a $400 million extension, could move to center. The Nationals clearly believe that their championship window is closing so they had to make a deal for an affordable, multiple tool center fielder.
So in a matter of 24 hours, the White Sox have turned their bottom quarter farm system into a Top 5 organization. The minors are now loaded with Top 100 prospects: 1., Moncada, 3.Giolito, 30 Kopech, 38 Lopez, 58 Carson Fulmer, 80 Zack Collins. The Top 10 Sox prospects are now 1 Moncada, 2, Giolito, 3 Kopech, 4 Lopez, 5. Fulmer, 6. Collins, 7 Spencer Adams, 8 Zack Burdi, 9 Luis Basabe, and 10 Dunning. Six of the Top Ten White Sox prospects have arrived in the past 24 hours.
The crazy thing is that the White Sox had good quality pitching prospects before the two deals. On the prospect list are pitchers Alec Hansen (14), LHP Jordan Guerreo (16), Jordan Stephens (17), Tyler Danish (21), LHP Brian Clark (22), and Chris Beck (24). No wonder no one blinks at the prospect that Hahn could pull the trigger and trade SP Jose Quintana to reap the same type of return as Chris Sale.
It is true that most prospects to not pan out to be impact major league players. But the Sox now have so much pitching depth that it is more probable than not that in the near future they will field a home grown, dominating starting rotation which would be the envy of the league.
September 16, 2016
A BREACH OF TRUST
A good general manager is a man of his word. Very few succeed by trying to rip off another club in a trade. Trades are supposed to be made for the mutual benefit of both sides.
So when MLB suspended the Padres GM for serious breach of protocol, it was a surprise.
San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller was suspended Thursday for 30 games without pay by Major League Baseball, hours after news hit that the Padres allegedly withheld player health information in hopes of getting the upper hand in trade discussions.
ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote that the Padres allegedly built a special database to document player health details while skirting MLB’s rules about injury information. In essence, the Padres kept two sets of records: One that was incomplete and shared with other teams and another that was complete and kept in-house.
The Padres were called into question because of their July trades with the Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins, which according to Olney, left teams thinking the Padres were using “strategic deception.”
In its announcement of Preller’s punishment, MLB didn’t comment on the specifics of its probe, saying only:
Major League Baseball has a central database for player health information, where teams are supposed to keep their notes on injuries. In the event of a trade, doctors for each team trade codes and look at player notes. According to Olney, the Padres started keeping all the important notes in their separate database this year.
So when MLB suspended the Padres GM for serious breach of protocol, it was a surprise.
San Diego Padres general manager A.J. Preller was suspended Thursday for 30 games without pay by Major League Baseball, hours after news hit that the Padres allegedly withheld player health information in hopes of getting the upper hand in trade discussions.
ESPN’s Buster Olney wrote that the Padres allegedly built a special database to document player health details while skirting MLB’s rules about injury information. In essence, the Padres kept two sets of records: One that was incomplete and shared with other teams and another that was complete and kept in-house.
The Padres were called into question because of their July trades with the Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins, which according to Olney, left teams thinking the Padres were using “strategic deception.”
In its announcement of Preller’s punishment, MLB didn’t comment on the specifics of its probe, saying only:
Major League Baseball has completed an investigation into the July 14th transaction in which pitcher Drew Pomeranz was traded from the San Diego Padres to the Boston Red Sox. MLB’s Department of Investigations conducted the thorough review, which included interviews with relevant individuals from both Clubs. The findings were submitted to Commissioner Robert D. Manfred, Jr.
As a result of this matter, Major League Baseball announced today that A.J. Preller, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the Padres, has received a 30-day suspension without pay.
MLB considers the matter closed and will have no further comment.Olney said at least three teams complained about the Padres to MLB.
Major League Baseball has a central database for player health information, where teams are supposed to keep their notes on injuries. In the event of a trade, doctors for each team trade codes and look at player notes. According to Olney, the Padres started keeping all the important notes in their separate database this year.
At the trade deadline, the Padres traded Drew Pomeranz the Red Sox and Andrew Cashner and Colin Read to the Marlins. Rea was hurt in his first start with the Marlins and in a highly unusual move, he was returned to the Padres
The Red Sox were angered when they learned about preventative treatment
Pomeranz was going through that wasn’t in his Padres notes.
In decades past, trades between teams were always "buyer beware." Each team had the responsibility to conduct a medical evaluation on a player before agreeing with a deal. MLB has streamlined the medical records process to help trade and free agent market evaluations.
The Padres intentionally deceived the other clubs by not putting in medical treatment into the central data base. It calls into question the trustworthiness of the San Diego organization in future team transactions.
July 19, 2016
GREAT MOVES
Dave Dombrowski has always been regarded as a good GM.
But in a few days, he has baffled the baseball world.
He acquired All-Star starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz from the Padres in exchange for an 18-year-old pitching prospect. Straight up.
Then he acquired Diamondbacks closer Zeigler, who owns the team record of 43 consecutive saves, for two low level prospects.
So, the Red Sox acquired an All-Star starter and proven closer for basically nothing.
Wow.
Other GMs question how Dombrowski got away with such a haul for nothing. But then again, he got the deal done with suspect GM Dave Stewart in Arizona (remember, he overpaid for Shelby Miller who is now in AAA), and a friendship with President Tony LaRussa, and then dealt the hapless, rutterless Padres.
A few teams grumbled that they offered more for Zeigler than what the Red Sox gave up . . . .
But would not the Cubs or Cardinals or any other team have taken both Pomeranz and Zeigler for three Class A prospects?!!
Of course they would.
But for some reason, only Dombrowski got the deals done.
Quickly. Early. Cheaply.
There have been many writers now thinking that Theo may be too enamored with his own prospects
to trade them for bullpen help. If prospects are the true assets in today's trade market, you have
to part with value in order to get back value.
Except if you are Dombrowski.
He acquired All-Star starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz from the Padres in exchange for an 18-year-old pitching prospect. Straight up.
Then he acquired Diamondbacks closer Zeigler, who owns the team record of 43 consecutive saves, for two low level prospects.
So, the Red Sox acquired an All-Star starter and proven closer for basically nothing.
Wow.
Other GMs question how Dombrowski got away with such a haul for nothing. But then again, he got the deal done with suspect GM Dave Stewart in Arizona (remember, he overpaid for Shelby Miller who is now in AAA), and a friendship with President Tony LaRussa, and then dealt the hapless, rutterless Padres.
A few teams grumbled that they offered more for Zeigler than what the Red Sox gave up . . . .
But would not the Cubs or Cardinals or any other team have taken both Pomeranz and Zeigler for three Class A prospects?!!
Of course they would.
But for some reason, only Dombrowski got the deals done.
Quickly. Early. Cheaply.
There have been many writers now thinking that Theo may be too enamored with his own prospects
to trade them for bullpen help. If prospects are the true assets in today's trade market, you have
to part with value in order to get back value.
Except if you are Dombrowski.
June 10, 2016
EARLY MOVES
Trades in early June are rare.
Both the Cubs and White Sox have been active but for different reasons.
The Cubs are trying to cover for some injuries while the White Sox are trying to plug massive holes in their sinking ship.
The trade for James Shields was supposed to have solidified the starting rotation. Shields debut was a train wreck, but not as bad as management must have thought since it DFA'd starter Mat Latos to call up Tyler Danish for bullpen duty (as the training before joining the rotation). Danish is one of the five quality starting arms in the minors.
The Cubs made a questionable trade.
The Cubs have brought back veteran infielder/outfielder Chris Coghlan in a trade with the Athletics, per an announcement from Oakland. Young utilityman Arismendy Alcantara will go back in return.
Coghlan is batting .146!
Alcantara has been playing 5 positions in AAA with 5 HRs 21 RBI, .246 BA. He is a speedy left handed hitter who has more value to a team than a 5th outfielder struggling at the plate.
Alcantara is 24. Coghlan 30.
Perhaps the Cubs front office panicked when Jorge Soler tweaked his hamstring. But rookie Albert Almora has looked fairly polished in his Cub debut. It is odd then to trade for a player with little upside to send Almora back down the minors when he has not done anything to cause such a demotion.
Kris Bryant called Almora the best outfielder he has ever seen. With Almora in left, Fowler playing a deeper center and Heyward in right, the Cubs have a plus outfield defense which could win games when the offense struggles.
The White Sox moves make sense since Latos was falling quickly to his horrible 2015 form. The Cubs move makes little sense in where they are at in the standings and the players currently on their roster.
UPDATE:
The White Sox DFA'd Jimmy Rollins and promoted top prospect Tim Anderson. Anderson, who is hitting .304/.325/.409 with four home runs, 20 RBIs and 11 steals in 256 plate appearances, takes over as the starting shortstop.
Both the Cubs and White Sox have been active but for different reasons.
The Cubs are trying to cover for some injuries while the White Sox are trying to plug massive holes in their sinking ship.
The trade for James Shields was supposed to have solidified the starting rotation. Shields debut was a train wreck, but not as bad as management must have thought since it DFA'd starter Mat Latos to call up Tyler Danish for bullpen duty (as the training before joining the rotation). Danish is one of the five quality starting arms in the minors.
The Cubs made a questionable trade.
The Cubs have brought back veteran infielder/outfielder Chris Coghlan in a trade with the Athletics, per an announcement from Oakland. Young utilityman Arismendy Alcantara will go back in return.
Coghlan is batting .146!
Alcantara has been playing 5 positions in AAA with 5 HRs 21 RBI, .246 BA. He is a speedy left handed hitter who has more value to a team than a 5th outfielder struggling at the plate.
Alcantara is 24. Coghlan 30.
Perhaps the Cubs front office panicked when Jorge Soler tweaked his hamstring. But rookie Albert Almora has looked fairly polished in his Cub debut. It is odd then to trade for a player with little upside to send Almora back down the minors when he has not done anything to cause such a demotion.
Kris Bryant called Almora the best outfielder he has ever seen. With Almora in left, Fowler playing a deeper center and Heyward in right, the Cubs have a plus outfield defense which could win games when the offense struggles.
The White Sox moves make sense since Latos was falling quickly to his horrible 2015 form. The Cubs move makes little sense in where they are at in the standings and the players currently on their roster.
UPDATE:
The White Sox DFA'd Jimmy Rollins and promoted top prospect Tim Anderson. Anderson, who is hitting .304/.325/.409 with four home runs, 20 RBIs and 11 steals in 256 plate appearances, takes over as the starting shortstop.
December 12, 2015
ODD TRADE
Two aggressive general managers in new places can make odd deals.
There is an old baseball saying that "you don't trade a starter for a relief pitcher." That seems obvious: relievers are failed starters. It is harder to find quality starters.
So this Winter Meeting trade is a little odd. Per CSNNE:
Dave Dombrowski's breakneck reconstruction of the Boston Red Sox continued Monday on the first day of baseball's Winter Meetings, as he dealt some of the team's starting pitching depth for more relief help.
The Red Sox traded left-hander Wade Miley (11-11 with a 4.46 ERA for the Sox in 2015) and reliever Jonathan Aro (0-1, 6.97) to the Mariners on Monday for hard-throwing right-handed reliever Carson Smith and left-handed starter Roenis Elias.
In the last three weeks, Dombrowski, the team's new director of baseball operations, has signed a rotation ace (David Price) as a free agent and traded for a closer (Craig Kimbrel). With Price on board, Dombrowski took the opportunity to use the team's excess starting pitching to continue to rebuilt the bullpen.
Carson, 26, is a big (6-foot-6) power bullpen arm, with 92 strikeouts in 70 IP last year and an ERA of 2.31. Elias is 27, from Cuba, and has made 49 starts in the last two years. He was 10-12 with a 3.85 ERA in 2014 and 5-8 with a 4.14 ERA last year.
Miley spent one season with the Red Sox after being traded over by the Diamondbacks for right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster.
The Red Sox trade a veteran starter for a veteran relief pitcher, but then get a young starter for a young reliever so some may think this is a positional wash.
There is an old baseball saying that "you don't trade a starter for a relief pitcher." That seems obvious: relievers are failed starters. It is harder to find quality starters.
So this Winter Meeting trade is a little odd. Per CSNNE:
Dave Dombrowski's breakneck reconstruction of the Boston Red Sox continued Monday on the first day of baseball's Winter Meetings, as he dealt some of the team's starting pitching depth for more relief help.
The Red Sox traded left-hander Wade Miley (11-11 with a 4.46 ERA for the Sox in 2015) and reliever Jonathan Aro (0-1, 6.97) to the Mariners on Monday for hard-throwing right-handed reliever Carson Smith and left-handed starter Roenis Elias.
In the last three weeks, Dombrowski, the team's new director of baseball operations, has signed a rotation ace (David Price) as a free agent and traded for a closer (Craig Kimbrel). With Price on board, Dombrowski took the opportunity to use the team's excess starting pitching to continue to rebuilt the bullpen.
Carson, 26, is a big (6-foot-6) power bullpen arm, with 92 strikeouts in 70 IP last year and an ERA of 2.31. Elias is 27, from Cuba, and has made 49 starts in the last two years. He was 10-12 with a 3.85 ERA in 2014 and 5-8 with a 4.14 ERA last year.
Miley spent one season with the Red Sox after being traded over by the Diamondbacks for right-handers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster.
The Red Sox trade a veteran starter for a veteran relief pitcher, but then get a young starter for a young reliever so some may think this is a positional wash.
August 3, 2014
THE PRICE IS LOW
Jed Hoyer was on the sportscasts late last week after the trade deadline. He continued to mutter the mantra that "hopefully" the Cubs won't be sellers next year; that "hopefully" their top prospects will be reaching the majors soon; and "hopefully" things will fall into place so they can go out and get pitching a few years afterward.
Hope does not float a boat.
The trade of two major leaguers, Russell and Bonifacio, for a Class A catcher and CASH makes sense only if you believe David Kaplan's statement that the Cubs are tied by their loan covenants to only have a payroll of 110 percent of attendance revenue. The trade was a salary dump and a cash infusion for the Cubs. However, other reports indicate it was the Cubs who gave Atlanta a million dollars to "get the prospect they wanted." (If so, the move would be double the amount owed Russell and Bonifacio for the rest of the season, so the Braves get two major leaguers for free (?) What kind of deal is that for the Cubs?). Putting the moves for the past several seasons, and salary dumps together, there is more circumstantial evidence that the Cubs do not have the fiscal pieces to make any significant changes to the ball club. One caveat to this analysis is that the Cubs sported a $144 million payroll at peak attendance; but now payroll has been slashed in half (but attendance has not). If the lenders are pressing loan covenants on the team, that means the bankers are not comfortable with their loan risk, even if the club is current in its payments.
Cubs peak attendance was around 3.2 million fans. Current projects show this season to be close to 2.4 million. That is a 25 percent drop under Ricketts ownership. Using the Cubs own internal revenue number per fan attending games, the Cubs lose $56 million in revenue this year from the peak years.
But still, at 2.4 million fans at an average face ticket price of $35 million, the payroll budget would still be around $92 million, and not at its current $75 million level. The "savings" has to go somewhere - - - to debt service or to the ever-changing Wrigley renovation plans.
There is also conflicting information on the broadcast fees. The Tribune has reported that the old WGN-TV deal paid the Cubs $250,000 per game while Comcast pays $500,000 per game. Earlier reports had Comcast only paying $350,000 per game. Even if the Cubs wanted to raise the rights fees $100,000 a WGN contest, that is only maybe another $5 million per season. With all the additional signage in Wrigley, advertising executives speculate that it will only bring in perhaps $10 to $14 million in new revenue. So basically, the Cubs cannot make up lost attendance revenue from new broadcast fees or additional Wrigley advertising.
And it appears despite all the "hope" messages, the financial situation is not going to change. The real problem is that people will not commit to a season of premium major league prices for minor league talent. The Cubs front office is positioning itself to have the playing field occupied by players at the major league minimum salary levels in half of those positions (LF, CF, 3B, 2B). A team dominated by rookie minimum salary prospects is the definition of a struggling small market team.
If we assume that the debt and ownership structure prevents the Cubs from operating like a real baseball team, then Ricketts is solely blame for accepting those terms. It also shows that if the payroll is so fixed that the team cannot truly make deals to bring in high quality players like David Price because their salaries breach a loan agreement, then the franchise is in quicksand.
Tampa Bay gave away Price to the Tigers.
The Tigers acquired David Price from the Rays by trading Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson to the Mariners, with Nick Franklin (from Seattle) and Drew Smyly (from Detroit) heading to Tampa. Minor league shortstop Willy Adames is also going to Tampa from Detroit in the deal
MLBTR notes that the move brings and end to near-ceaseless speculation regarding the now-former Rays lefty, who has been one of the game’s best pitchers in recent seasons. Still only 28, Price is under control for one more season through arbitration, though he will certainly not come cheap.
Playing this year on a $14 million salary, Price will be in line for a big raise next year. Of course, one key element of his value lies in the fact that his new club will have an opportunity to explore an extension. The reason that Price figures to draw a big salary next year is obvious: he has continued to be outstanding. At present, he owns a 3.11 ERA with a remarkable 10.0 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9 over 170 2/3 innings.
The return for the Rays is not particularly splashy, but delivers obvious value. Smyly, 25, was outstanding last year as a reliever and has since converted into a solid starting option. He carries a 3.77 ERA through 100 1/3 innings, with 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 and a 36.9% ground ball rate. While his strikeout numbers are down since moving to the rotation, he can be controlled through 2018.
The 23-year-old Franklin, meanwhile, seemed without a future in Seattle after the club added Robinson Cano. Though he has spent time at both short and second, many observers believe he is better suited for the keystone going forward. He had a solid 2013 at the MLB level (.225/.303/.382 in 412 plate appearances), and though his numbers were off this year in limited action, Franklin has continued to swing a big stick against Triple-A pitchers.
Then, there is Adames, who could be something of a wild card in the deal. Just 18, he has a promising .269/.346/.428 slash line through 400 plate appearances at the low-A level this year. He entered the year as Baseball America’s 30th-ranked Tigers prospect, but appears to be raising eyebrows around the game.
Seattle managed to address its center field need without giving up an indispensable prospects of the future. In fact, the 27-year-old Jackson will be at least a mid-term piece for Seattle. He is playing on a $6MM salary this year before hitting arbitration for the final time. He currently sports a .270/.330/.397 line that is approximately league average (as it was last year). With solid contributions in the field and on the bases, the Marineres believe he is certainly an above-average big league starter.
The Rays were still in playoff striking distance when the trade was made, signaling a white flag moment for the team. The Rays could have kept Price and traded him in the off-season. The only upside of the trade for Tampa is that they got three players who they can control and manage salary effectively for the next few years.
But Detroit now has a powerhouse post-season pitching staff, anchored now by the last THREE Cy Young Award Winners. It is a trade like this that moves the fan interest needle to HIGH. Clearly, based on the players moved, the Cubs had enough prospects and bodies to acquire Price from Tampa, but the Cubs (being perpetual sellers) were not even in any reported trade conversation. If the Cubs cannot make blockbuster deals for major league stars now, what is going to change this off-season to make it happen?
Hope does not float a boat.
The trade of two major leaguers, Russell and Bonifacio, for a Class A catcher and CASH makes sense only if you believe David Kaplan's statement that the Cubs are tied by their loan covenants to only have a payroll of 110 percent of attendance revenue. The trade was a salary dump and a cash infusion for the Cubs. However, other reports indicate it was the Cubs who gave Atlanta a million dollars to "get the prospect they wanted." (If so, the move would be double the amount owed Russell and Bonifacio for the rest of the season, so the Braves get two major leaguers for free (?) What kind of deal is that for the Cubs?). Putting the moves for the past several seasons, and salary dumps together, there is more circumstantial evidence that the Cubs do not have the fiscal pieces to make any significant changes to the ball club. One caveat to this analysis is that the Cubs sported a $144 million payroll at peak attendance; but now payroll has been slashed in half (but attendance has not). If the lenders are pressing loan covenants on the team, that means the bankers are not comfortable with their loan risk, even if the club is current in its payments.
Cubs peak attendance was around 3.2 million fans. Current projects show this season to be close to 2.4 million. That is a 25 percent drop under Ricketts ownership. Using the Cubs own internal revenue number per fan attending games, the Cubs lose $56 million in revenue this year from the peak years.
But still, at 2.4 million fans at an average face ticket price of $35 million, the payroll budget would still be around $92 million, and not at its current $75 million level. The "savings" has to go somewhere - - - to debt service or to the ever-changing Wrigley renovation plans.
There is also conflicting information on the broadcast fees. The Tribune has reported that the old WGN-TV deal paid the Cubs $250,000 per game while Comcast pays $500,000 per game. Earlier reports had Comcast only paying $350,000 per game. Even if the Cubs wanted to raise the rights fees $100,000 a WGN contest, that is only maybe another $5 million per season. With all the additional signage in Wrigley, advertising executives speculate that it will only bring in perhaps $10 to $14 million in new revenue. So basically, the Cubs cannot make up lost attendance revenue from new broadcast fees or additional Wrigley advertising.
And it appears despite all the "hope" messages, the financial situation is not going to change. The real problem is that people will not commit to a season of premium major league prices for minor league talent. The Cubs front office is positioning itself to have the playing field occupied by players at the major league minimum salary levels in half of those positions (LF, CF, 3B, 2B). A team dominated by rookie minimum salary prospects is the definition of a struggling small market team.
If we assume that the debt and ownership structure prevents the Cubs from operating like a real baseball team, then Ricketts is solely blame for accepting those terms. It also shows that if the payroll is so fixed that the team cannot truly make deals to bring in high quality players like David Price because their salaries breach a loan agreement, then the franchise is in quicksand.
Tampa Bay gave away Price to the Tigers.
The Tigers acquired David Price from the Rays by trading Tigers center fielder Austin Jackson to the Mariners, with Nick Franklin (from Seattle) and Drew Smyly (from Detroit) heading to Tampa. Minor league shortstop Willy Adames is also going to Tampa from Detroit in the deal
MLBTR notes that the move brings and end to near-ceaseless speculation regarding the now-former Rays lefty, who has been one of the game’s best pitchers in recent seasons. Still only 28, Price is under control for one more season through arbitration, though he will certainly not come cheap.
Playing this year on a $14 million salary, Price will be in line for a big raise next year. Of course, one key element of his value lies in the fact that his new club will have an opportunity to explore an extension. The reason that Price figures to draw a big salary next year is obvious: he has continued to be outstanding. At present, he owns a 3.11 ERA with a remarkable 10.0 K/9 against just 1.2 BB/9 over 170 2/3 innings.
The return for the Rays is not particularly splashy, but delivers obvious value. Smyly, 25, was outstanding last year as a reliever and has since converted into a solid starting option. He carries a 3.77 ERA through 100 1/3 innings, with 7.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 and a 36.9% ground ball rate. While his strikeout numbers are down since moving to the rotation, he can be controlled through 2018.
The 23-year-old Franklin, meanwhile, seemed without a future in Seattle after the club added Robinson Cano. Though he has spent time at both short and second, many observers believe he is better suited for the keystone going forward. He had a solid 2013 at the MLB level (.225/.303/.382 in 412 plate appearances), and though his numbers were off this year in limited action, Franklin has continued to swing a big stick against Triple-A pitchers.
Then, there is Adames, who could be something of a wild card in the deal. Just 18, he has a promising .269/.346/.428 slash line through 400 plate appearances at the low-A level this year. He entered the year as Baseball America’s 30th-ranked Tigers prospect, but appears to be raising eyebrows around the game.
Seattle managed to address its center field need without giving up an indispensable prospects of the future. In fact, the 27-year-old Jackson will be at least a mid-term piece for Seattle. He is playing on a $6MM salary this year before hitting arbitration for the final time. He currently sports a .270/.330/.397 line that is approximately league average (as it was last year). With solid contributions in the field and on the bases, the Marineres believe he is certainly an above-average big league starter.
The Rays were still in playoff striking distance when the trade was made, signaling a white flag moment for the team. The Rays could have kept Price and traded him in the off-season. The only upside of the trade for Tampa is that they got three players who they can control and manage salary effectively for the next few years.
But Detroit now has a powerhouse post-season pitching staff, anchored now by the last THREE Cy Young Award Winners. It is a trade like this that moves the fan interest needle to HIGH. Clearly, based on the players moved, the Cubs had enough prospects and bodies to acquire Price from Tampa, but the Cubs (being perpetual sellers) were not even in any reported trade conversation. If the Cubs cannot make blockbuster deals for major league stars now, what is going to change this off-season to make it happen?
August 2, 2014
NOT WINNING SOON
When the Cubs traded James Russell and Emilo Bonafacio to the Braves, one would have hoped the package would return a major league ready player. You know, trading two players on your active roster should bring something back, right?
Russell and Bonifacio traded for a 20 year old Class A catcher named Victor Caratini, my immediate thought is that the Cubs really don't want to win very soon.
Look at the trades made and the return:
Samardzija for Russell (AA), not coming to majors until 2015-16.
Hammel for McKinney (A), not coming to the majors until 2016-18.
Straily (AAA) may not be a replacement level starter in 2015.
Russell and Bonifacio for Caratini (A), not coming to majors if at all until 2018-2019.
Barney for J. Martinez (A), not coming to the majors if at all until 2018-2019.
PTBNL for Doubrount, who may pitch in #5 starter rotation mix in 2014 or 2015.
So the Cubs traded five players on the major league roster for
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen;
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to AAA; and
four (4) prospects with various degrees of hype.
Russell and Bonifacio traded for a 20 year old Class A catcher named Victor Caratini, my immediate thought is that the Cubs really don't want to win very soon.
Look at the trades made and the return:
Samardzija for Russell (AA), not coming to majors until 2015-16.
Hammel for McKinney (A), not coming to the majors until 2016-18.
Straily (AAA) may not be a replacement level starter in 2015.
Russell and Bonifacio for Caratini (A), not coming to majors if at all until 2018-2019.
Barney for J. Martinez (A), not coming to the majors if at all until 2018-2019.
PTBNL for Doubrount, who may pitch in #5 starter rotation mix in 2014 or 2015.
So the Cubs traded five players on the major league roster for
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to the bullpen;
one (1) pitcher who was demoted to AAA; and
four (4) prospects with various degrees of hype.
July 16, 2014
HOW THE A'S DID IT
Tim Britton of the Providence Journal has an excellent break down of how the Oakland Athletics became a quality team.
He acknowledges that the A's operate on a smaller budget than most major league teams due to their market and stadium deal. Oakland opened the season with the game’s 25th-highest payroll at $85 million, and its seven All-Stars — including recently acquired Jeff Samardzija — will make a grand total of $28.55 million this season. The Athletics have acquired those seven players in very different ways, most of them highlighting superior evaluation of unknowns — and of course a healthy dose of good fortune.
The A’s have built through the draft. All-Star closer Sean Doolitte was a first-round pick in 2007 out of the University of Virginia, albeit as a position player. Doolitte shifted to the mound after his development stagnated at the plate, and he’s quickly evolved into one of the game’s best late-inning relievers.
The A’s have built through the international market. As fewer big-name stars hit free agency — and the ones that do hit it at a more advanced age — the international market has grown in significance. Fifteen different All-Stars signed with their current teams as international free agents, including seven who were into their 20s and played in the majors almost immediately. That includes pitchers from Japan in Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka, and multiple sluggers from Cuba, like Yasiel Puig, Jose Abreu and Oakland’s Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes was 26 and known mainly for an over-the-top workout video when the A’s inked him to a four-year, $36-million deal shortly before the 2012 season — a surprising outlay of cash from the Athletics. Cespedes’ production has exceeded that expense already — something that can rarely be said about free-agent outfielders these days. (That same offseason, Michael Cuddyer signed a three-year deal in Colorado for $31.5 million; he’s been about 60 percent as valuable as Cespedes since.)
The A’s have built through other teams’ farm systems. Oakland has long had to deal established players in order to get something of value in return before they departed in free agency. Catcher Derek Norris and third baseman Josh Donaldson both came to the Athletics as minor-leaguers in deals for veteran pitchers — Norris from Washington for Gio Gonzalez, Donaldson from the Cubs for Rich Harden. It’s rare for a team to hit on that kind of return more than once. Just look at how little Cliff Lee brought back each of the three times he was traded as an ace.
The A’s have found value in the free-agency clearance aisle, snatching Brandon Moss on a minor-league contract after the 2011 season. At the time, Moss had been a replacement-level player; in five seasons for three different organizations, he was worth exactly 0.0 wins above replacement. Since, he’s slugged 71 home runs and been worth seven wins to the Athletics.
Finding that kind of value on the cheap allows room for the occasional expense, like shelling out $22 million this past winter for Scott Kazmir. The approach of using free agency to find complementary pieces obviously worked quite well for the Red Sox last season.
In a pool of 81 All-Stars overall, Kazmir is one of just 15 who signed with their current team through the regular free-agent market. The Zack Greinkes and Robinson Canos are increasingly the outlier among All-Stars, not the rule.
Drafting well will always be the best strategy for building a consistently competitive team. But compensating for poor drafts in the free-agent market has become harder and harder as more and more of the game’s best players stay home with long-range extensions. Creating a talented roster demands a varied approach to collecting that talent — something the A’s have excelled at in recent years.
I call this a balanced approach tempered by the financial realities of the club. Draft well in June and sign good international players; make good trades to acquire other teams best prospects; find value in second tier free agent market; and make occasional big trade or premium free agent signing. But that is easier said than done.
Unlike the Cubs, the A's went into the international market to land major league starters. Finding gold in toss in players in trades like Donaldson are quite rare. But once you get new players into your system, a team needs to finalize their development which the A's have an excellent track record in doing, especially with their pitching staffs.
He acknowledges that the A's operate on a smaller budget than most major league teams due to their market and stadium deal. Oakland opened the season with the game’s 25th-highest payroll at $85 million, and its seven All-Stars — including recently acquired Jeff Samardzija — will make a grand total of $28.55 million this season. The Athletics have acquired those seven players in very different ways, most of them highlighting superior evaluation of unknowns — and of course a healthy dose of good fortune.
The A’s have built through the draft. All-Star closer Sean Doolitte was a first-round pick in 2007 out of the University of Virginia, albeit as a position player. Doolitte shifted to the mound after his development stagnated at the plate, and he’s quickly evolved into one of the game’s best late-inning relievers.
The A’s have built through the international market. As fewer big-name stars hit free agency — and the ones that do hit it at a more advanced age — the international market has grown in significance. Fifteen different All-Stars signed with their current teams as international free agents, including seven who were into their 20s and played in the majors almost immediately. That includes pitchers from Japan in Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka, and multiple sluggers from Cuba, like Yasiel Puig, Jose Abreu and Oakland’s Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes was 26 and known mainly for an over-the-top workout video when the A’s inked him to a four-year, $36-million deal shortly before the 2012 season — a surprising outlay of cash from the Athletics. Cespedes’ production has exceeded that expense already — something that can rarely be said about free-agent outfielders these days. (That same offseason, Michael Cuddyer signed a three-year deal in Colorado for $31.5 million; he’s been about 60 percent as valuable as Cespedes since.)
The A’s have built through other teams’ farm systems. Oakland has long had to deal established players in order to get something of value in return before they departed in free agency. Catcher Derek Norris and third baseman Josh Donaldson both came to the Athletics as minor-leaguers in deals for veteran pitchers — Norris from Washington for Gio Gonzalez, Donaldson from the Cubs for Rich Harden. It’s rare for a team to hit on that kind of return more than once. Just look at how little Cliff Lee brought back each of the three times he was traded as an ace.
The A’s have found value in the free-agency clearance aisle, snatching Brandon Moss on a minor-league contract after the 2011 season. At the time, Moss had been a replacement-level player; in five seasons for three different organizations, he was worth exactly 0.0 wins above replacement. Since, he’s slugged 71 home runs and been worth seven wins to the Athletics.
Finding that kind of value on the cheap allows room for the occasional expense, like shelling out $22 million this past winter for Scott Kazmir. The approach of using free agency to find complementary pieces obviously worked quite well for the Red Sox last season.
In a pool of 81 All-Stars overall, Kazmir is one of just 15 who signed with their current team through the regular free-agent market. The Zack Greinkes and Robinson Canos are increasingly the outlier among All-Stars, not the rule.
Drafting well will always be the best strategy for building a consistently competitive team. But compensating for poor drafts in the free-agent market has become harder and harder as more and more of the game’s best players stay home with long-range extensions. Creating a talented roster demands a varied approach to collecting that talent — something the A’s have excelled at in recent years.
I call this a balanced approach tempered by the financial realities of the club. Draft well in June and sign good international players; make good trades to acquire other teams best prospects; find value in second tier free agent market; and make occasional big trade or premium free agent signing. But that is easier said than done.
Unlike the Cubs, the A's went into the international market to land major league starters. Finding gold in toss in players in trades like Donaldson are quite rare. But once you get new players into your system, a team needs to finalize their development which the A's have an excellent track record in doing, especially with their pitching staffs.
July 12, 2014
BIG HOLE
A veteran Chicago sportswriter remarked this week that he does not understand the logic behind the Cubs trading away six quality pitchers when in fact, the hardest thing a team has to accomplish is to build a quality pitching core.
The Cubs continue to fall apart after trading 40 percent of their rotation. The team fell apart after the 2012 trades of Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm and the 2013 trades of Scott Feldman and Matt Garza. This season, the Cubs had a long losing streak after Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel were traded to Oakland. The Cubs best pitching prospect, Andrew Cashner, was also traded.
Jim Litke of the Associated Press opined that the Cubs (like most teams) are in need of pitching in order to be a competitive ball club. But the Cubs have traded away six quality starting pitchers in three years which is counter-intuitive on how to build a team.
This is a point that is often overlooked in the rebuilding story.
The Cubs have traded valuable assets, major league starting pitchers, for prospects.
There are only 150 starters in the majors at any given time. But that is still 20 percent of the league's active rosters. And at any given time, there may only be 50 quality starters in the majors. Starting pitchers are the hardest players to find and keep.
There is no doubt that any general manager would have drooled over the prospect of having Dempster, Garza, Maholm, Feldman, Samardzija, Hammel and Cashner to choose a starting rotation. But the current management team has taken these players and turned them into two unproven starters (Arrieta and Hendricks) and bullpen arms (Grimm, Strop, Ramirez). By most accounts, trading proven starters for relief pitchers is a horrible strategy.
Some may say the Cubs traded away their starters at the right time. Collectively, Dempster, Maholm, Garza and Feldman only have contributed a 1.0 WAR since leaving Chicago. Feldman has a 1.2 WAR since leaving the Cubs.
If the plan is to have an inventory of cheap, controllable position players on your roster - - - at the expense of home grown pitching talent - - - then one has to spend huge money for free agent starters (in the hundreds of millions of dollar range with the Kershaws and Tanakas). That is a risky and expensive proposition considering most free agent pitchers are veterans who if not already broken down have much wear and tear on their bodies that injury is a risk. There is probably more dead money contracts tied to failed veteran pitchers than any other position in baseball.
So the basic point is that the Cubs are building a team differently than most other teams who prize pitching first. As you can tell in the current trade market, teams are not trading their major league ready pitching prospects. And other teams are wary of trading their starting aces (unless they are about to become free agents). To acquire a David Price will cost a team like the Cubs four of their top prospects, which puts the Cubs prospect inventory back to almost square one.
This is why the balanced approach to rebuilding a major league franchise is the common sense way to do business. But the Cubs think they are smarter than the other teams. But as a result, the Cubs have a huge pitching deficit in their organization.
The Cubs continue to fall apart after trading 40 percent of their rotation. The team fell apart after the 2012 trades of Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm and the 2013 trades of Scott Feldman and Matt Garza. This season, the Cubs had a long losing streak after Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel were traded to Oakland. The Cubs best pitching prospect, Andrew Cashner, was also traded.
Jim Litke of the Associated Press opined that the Cubs (like most teams) are in need of pitching in order to be a competitive ball club. But the Cubs have traded away six quality starting pitchers in three years which is counter-intuitive on how to build a team.
This is a point that is often overlooked in the rebuilding story.
The Cubs have traded valuable assets, major league starting pitchers, for prospects.
There are only 150 starters in the majors at any given time. But that is still 20 percent of the league's active rosters. And at any given time, there may only be 50 quality starters in the majors. Starting pitchers are the hardest players to find and keep.
There is no doubt that any general manager would have drooled over the prospect of having Dempster, Garza, Maholm, Feldman, Samardzija, Hammel and Cashner to choose a starting rotation. But the current management team has taken these players and turned them into two unproven starters (Arrieta and Hendricks) and bullpen arms (Grimm, Strop, Ramirez). By most accounts, trading proven starters for relief pitchers is a horrible strategy.
Some may say the Cubs traded away their starters at the right time. Collectively, Dempster, Maholm, Garza and Feldman only have contributed a 1.0 WAR since leaving Chicago. Feldman has a 1.2 WAR since leaving the Cubs.
If the plan is to have an inventory of cheap, controllable position players on your roster - - - at the expense of home grown pitching talent - - - then one has to spend huge money for free agent starters (in the hundreds of millions of dollar range with the Kershaws and Tanakas). That is a risky and expensive proposition considering most free agent pitchers are veterans who if not already broken down have much wear and tear on their bodies that injury is a risk. There is probably more dead money contracts tied to failed veteran pitchers than any other position in baseball.
So the basic point is that the Cubs are building a team differently than most other teams who prize pitching first. As you can tell in the current trade market, teams are not trading their major league ready pitching prospects. And other teams are wary of trading their starting aces (unless they are about to become free agents). To acquire a David Price will cost a team like the Cubs four of their top prospects, which puts the Cubs prospect inventory back to almost square one.
This is why the balanced approach to rebuilding a major league franchise is the common sense way to do business. But the Cubs think they are smarter than the other teams. But as a result, the Cubs have a huge pitching deficit in their organization.
March 20, 2014
BAD BREAKS
There has been a rash of Tommy John injuries to starting pitchers. The Braves have two of their starters go down with season ending injuries. Tigers SS Jose Ingelias fractured bones in both his legs (which seems unbelievable), so he is out for the entire season as well.
Those bad breaks are opportunities for other players and other teams.
The Braves had to pop for free agent Ervin Santana because the team believes it can still win the NL East. The Tigers losing their starting shortstop is a major set back for the defending AL Central champions.
You don't have to wait to the July deadline to trade players.
The Cubs could sell "high" right now to teams that are reeling from injuries.
Even though their starting pitchers have been poor in the spring, the Cubs have several trade candidates: Samardzija, Hammel, E. Jackson, and even major league ready guys like Rusin, Grimm or Hendricks.
If the Tigers need a shortstop, Barney could be a caretaker. That would open up second for Bonifacio, the club's true lead off hitter until Baez is ready to be promoted next season. Or, in even a bolder move, Castro could be shopped for pitching prospects, clearing a path for Baez at his natural position.
This trade window will close sooner than you think. General managers are honing their rosters right now, seeing if they have minor league assets that can tide them over until the other teams make their final cuts.
Those bad breaks are opportunities for other players and other teams.
The Braves had to pop for free agent Ervin Santana because the team believes it can still win the NL East. The Tigers losing their starting shortstop is a major set back for the defending AL Central champions.
You don't have to wait to the July deadline to trade players.
The Cubs could sell "high" right now to teams that are reeling from injuries.
Even though their starting pitchers have been poor in the spring, the Cubs have several trade candidates: Samardzija, Hammel, E. Jackson, and even major league ready guys like Rusin, Grimm or Hendricks.
If the Tigers need a shortstop, Barney could be a caretaker. That would open up second for Bonifacio, the club's true lead off hitter until Baez is ready to be promoted next season. Or, in even a bolder move, Castro could be shopped for pitching prospects, clearing a path for Baez at his natural position.
This trade window will close sooner than you think. General managers are honing their rosters right now, seeing if they have minor league assets that can tide them over until the other teams make their final cuts.
March 12, 2014
HALF WAY
Teams are half way through spring training. General managers have a pretty good grasp on what players will break camp with the major league squad. This time is used to stretch out starters, get bullpen arms into a routine, and hitters working on their timing. Teams usually only have one or two open spots to fill during the final 10 days of camp, usually referred to the 25th man (bench player) and a final pitcher for the bullpen.
It is rare for trades to happen late in spring training. Teams have concentrated so much on their own organization and talent to focus in on potential trade partners. Teams do scout other organizations, but mainly to get updated books on other team prospects.
However, if a preseason contender is beset with early injuries, like the Tigers with OF Dirks or the Braves who lost two starting pitchers, a last minute trade is a possibility.
If the Tigers want to replace their outfielder with a proven veteran, Nate Schierholtz's name has come up in recent reports. Apparently the Tigers inquired at last year's trade deadline. Since Schierholtz is in the final year of his Cub contract, it would make sense if he has any trade value to move him. The Tigers are still in "win now" mode and may give up some pitching prospects.
Likewise, the Braves are also in "win now" mode after re-signing many of their young players to extensions this off season. Number one starter, Kris Medlen, left his start with a forearm strain. With Medlen--who already has one Tommy John surgery on the punch card--and the Braves awaiting results from an MRI, Brandon Beachy left his spring start a mere 24 hours after Medlen. Also a Tommy John recoverer, he left with tightness in his throwing elbow. In the span of a day, the Braves went from a young, deep rotation to one on the verge of falling apart before they break from Spring Training. Two bad MRIs, and the Braves would suddenly, breathtakingly be stripped of their status as favorites for the NL East crown. As insurance, the Braves traded for journeyman starter/reliever Zach Stewart from the White Sox system. But clearly, Stewart would not be a long term solution.
UPDATE: The Braves have signed free agent Ervin Santana in a one year deal for $14.1 million (the same money as the qualified offer he rejected from his previous club).
The weak point is lack of depth of major league starters, so Jeff Samardzija's name will come up as a possible solution. There is no question that the Shark is frustrated with the Cubs. He wants to play for a winning club. The Cubs and his representatives are at an impasse on a contract extension. At age 29, Samardzija's championship window is starting to close.
The Cubs are gearing up for another 100 loss season, so losing Samardzija or Schierholtz is not going to make a great deal of difference. There are plenty of journeymen outfielders in camp to platoon in RF. Chris Rusin, Carlos Villanueva or Justin Grimm could take Shark's rotation spot.
The plan is that Jorge Soler would take the long term RF spot, but Soler is slated to start this year at Class A again. That projects to not being major league ready until 2017. The Cubs really do not have a sure fire "ace" in the minor league system who would replace Samardzija as an opening day starter/innings eater. Even if the Cubs take the best college pitcher available in this year's draft, he will not be ready for at least two years. In essence, the Cubs "rebuild" plan is only halfway to completion.
It is rare for trades to happen late in spring training. Teams have concentrated so much on their own organization and talent to focus in on potential trade partners. Teams do scout other organizations, but mainly to get updated books on other team prospects.
However, if a preseason contender is beset with early injuries, like the Tigers with OF Dirks or the Braves who lost two starting pitchers, a last minute trade is a possibility.
If the Tigers want to replace their outfielder with a proven veteran, Nate Schierholtz's name has come up in recent reports. Apparently the Tigers inquired at last year's trade deadline. Since Schierholtz is in the final year of his Cub contract, it would make sense if he has any trade value to move him. The Tigers are still in "win now" mode and may give up some pitching prospects.
Likewise, the Braves are also in "win now" mode after re-signing many of their young players to extensions this off season. Number one starter, Kris Medlen, left his start with a forearm strain. With Medlen--who already has one Tommy John surgery on the punch card--and the Braves awaiting results from an MRI, Brandon Beachy left his spring start a mere 24 hours after Medlen. Also a Tommy John recoverer, he left with tightness in his throwing elbow. In the span of a day, the Braves went from a young, deep rotation to one on the verge of falling apart before they break from Spring Training. Two bad MRIs, and the Braves would suddenly, breathtakingly be stripped of their status as favorites for the NL East crown. As insurance, the Braves traded for journeyman starter/reliever Zach Stewart from the White Sox system. But clearly, Stewart would not be a long term solution.
UPDATE: The Braves have signed free agent Ervin Santana in a one year deal for $14.1 million (the same money as the qualified offer he rejected from his previous club).
The weak point is lack of depth of major league starters, so Jeff Samardzija's name will come up as a possible solution. There is no question that the Shark is frustrated with the Cubs. He wants to play for a winning club. The Cubs and his representatives are at an impasse on a contract extension. At age 29, Samardzija's championship window is starting to close.
The Cubs are gearing up for another 100 loss season, so losing Samardzija or Schierholtz is not going to make a great deal of difference. There are plenty of journeymen outfielders in camp to platoon in RF. Chris Rusin, Carlos Villanueva or Justin Grimm could take Shark's rotation spot.
The plan is that Jorge Soler would take the long term RF spot, but Soler is slated to start this year at Class A again. That projects to not being major league ready until 2017. The Cubs really do not have a sure fire "ace" in the minor league system who would replace Samardzija as an opening day starter/innings eater. Even if the Cubs take the best college pitcher available in this year's draft, he will not be ready for at least two years. In essence, the Cubs "rebuild" plan is only halfway to completion.
December 18, 2013
FILLING NEEDS
Whether the deals work out or not, the White Sox can't be accused of not identifying their team needs then going out and doing something about them.
Last season, pitching was the team's strength with a fine, young (abet left handed) starting rotation. The offense and defense was poor last season. Many veterans had down years, including Dunn, Konerko, Beckham and Ramirez.
So the front office decided it needed to revamp the offense, get younger and faster. They identified two critical areas to upgrade: center field and third base. CF was manned by De Aza, who had above average power numbers for the position, but had defensive coverage issues. Third base was a sink hole of badness for several years. The platoon of Gillaspie and Keppinger did not set the world on fire.
So Rick Hahn and the pro scouts identified two young players who are major league ready to fix some needs. Adam Eaton is now the club's center fielder and lead off hitter. Matt Davidson is the heir apparent at third base. He may start the season in AAA.
The White Sox traded from strength to acquire players under several years of affordable team control. They gave up their closer, Addison Reed, and their #4 starter, H. Santiago to getting two starting position players. There are some general managers who believe starting position players are more valuable than pitchers because fielders play in more five times games per season.
So the revamped line up will probably be:
1. Eaton, cf
2. Ramirez ss
3. A. Garcia, rf
4. Abreu, 1b
5. Dunn/Konerko dh
6. Viciedo/De Aza lf
7. Gillaspie/ Keppinger 3b
8. Beckham/L. Garcia 2b
9. Phegley/ Flowers c
There appears to be in full transition mode with four to five positions that may go pure platoon.
Some question why the White Sox re-signed Konerko. But looking at the projected line-up, you can see why Konerko adds a leadership and player-coach to Robin Ventura's staff when the team will have three or four rookies on the squad. It is also possible that Ventura, in his last contract year, may want to return to the front office - - - which could pave the way for Konerko to manage in 2015.
Last season, pitching was the team's strength with a fine, young (abet left handed) starting rotation. The offense and defense was poor last season. Many veterans had down years, including Dunn, Konerko, Beckham and Ramirez.
So the front office decided it needed to revamp the offense, get younger and faster. They identified two critical areas to upgrade: center field and third base. CF was manned by De Aza, who had above average power numbers for the position, but had defensive coverage issues. Third base was a sink hole of badness for several years. The platoon of Gillaspie and Keppinger did not set the world on fire.
So Rick Hahn and the pro scouts identified two young players who are major league ready to fix some needs. Adam Eaton is now the club's center fielder and lead off hitter. Matt Davidson is the heir apparent at third base. He may start the season in AAA.
The White Sox traded from strength to acquire players under several years of affordable team control. They gave up their closer, Addison Reed, and their #4 starter, H. Santiago to getting two starting position players. There are some general managers who believe starting position players are more valuable than pitchers because fielders play in more five times games per season.
So the revamped line up will probably be:
1. Eaton, cf
2. Ramirez ss
3. A. Garcia, rf
4. Abreu, 1b
5. Dunn/Konerko dh
6. Viciedo/De Aza lf
7. Gillaspie/ Keppinger 3b
8. Beckham/L. Garcia 2b
9. Phegley/ Flowers c
There appears to be in full transition mode with four to five positions that may go pure platoon.
Some question why the White Sox re-signed Konerko. But looking at the projected line-up, you can see why Konerko adds a leadership and player-coach to Robin Ventura's staff when the team will have three or four rookies on the squad. It is also possible that Ventura, in his last contract year, may want to return to the front office - - - which could pave the way for Konerko to manage in 2015.
October 14, 2013
PHIL ER UP!
If history continues to repeat itself, the Cubs will sign one or two starting pitchers this off-season with the sole purpose of rehabbing them in order to flip them at the trade deadline. Usual candidates include pitchers coming off arm surgery, or who have not had a good season in three years.
The free agent starter crop (age) includes:
Bronson Arroyo (37)
Scott Baker (32)
Erik Bedard (35)
A.J. Burnett (37)
Chris Carpenter (39)
Bruce Chen (37)
Bartolo Colon (41)
Scott Feldman (30)
Gavin Floyd (31)
Jeff Francis (33)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Jon Garland (34)
Matt Garza (30)
Chad Gaudin (31)
Roy Halladay (37)
Jason Hammel (31)
Dan Haren (33)
Roberto Hernandez (33)
Tim Hudson (38)
Phil Hughes (28)
Phil Humber (30)
Josh Johnson (30)
Jeff Karstens (31)
Scott Kazmir (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (39)
Colby Lewis (34)
Ted Lilly (38)
Tim Lincecum (30)
Paul Maholm (32)
Shaun Marcum (32)
Jason Marquis (35)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (33)
Randy Messenger (32)
Ricky Nolasco (31)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Mike Pelfrey (30)
Ervin Santana (31)
Jason Vargas (31)
Edinson Volquez (30)
Chien-Ming Wang (34)
Several pitchers are poised for long term, big money contracts: Arroyo, J. Johnson, Garza, Nolasco, Pelfrey and Santana. These players are all off the Cub radar.
Also not in the mix are former Cub projects who have gone on to better things: Baker, Feldman, Maholm, Lilly, and Marquis.
You then have a crop of pitchers with down seasons who need to work through their issues: Volquez, Haren, Francis, Lincecum Hughes,and Kazmir.
Then you have the class of old pitchers whose time may have past: Kuroda, Hudson, Halladay, Garcia, Oswalt, Carpenter and Colon.
Then you have the pitchers with injuries or histories of injury problems: Floyd, Wang, and Garland.
Of all the pitchers on the list that fit the Cubs M.O. on scrapheap reclamation projects, Hughes, Humber and possibly Floyd fit the bill. Hughes was 4-15, 5.19 ERA last year for the Yankees. He has fallen out of favor and needs a change of venue (and less pressure) to regain his form. Humber is a former White Sox pitcher with a no-hitter on his resume, but has been lost for the last two seasons. He would come cheap. Floyd's last full year was in 2012 where he went 12-11, 4.29 ERA for the White Sox. And injury derailed his 2013 campaign early.
Given the Baker expensive debacle this year, I think the Cubs would look toward Hughes and Humber as 4th and 5th starters next year, with the idea of moving them at the trade deadline.
The free agent starter crop (age) includes:
Bronson Arroyo (37)
Scott Baker (32)
Erik Bedard (35)
A.J. Burnett (37)
Chris Carpenter (39)
Bruce Chen (37)
Bartolo Colon (41)
Scott Feldman (30)
Gavin Floyd (31)
Jeff Francis (33)
Freddy Garcia (37)
Jon Garland (34)
Matt Garza (30)
Chad Gaudin (31)
Roy Halladay (37)
Jason Hammel (31)
Dan Haren (33)
Roberto Hernandez (33)
Tim Hudson (38)
Phil Hughes (28)
Phil Humber (30)
Josh Johnson (30)
Jeff Karstens (31)
Scott Kazmir (30)
Hiroki Kuroda (39)
Colby Lewis (34)
Ted Lilly (38)
Tim Lincecum (30)
Paul Maholm (32)
Shaun Marcum (32)
Jason Marquis (35)
Daisuke Matsuzaka (33)
Randy Messenger (32)
Ricky Nolasco (31)
Roy Oswalt (35)
Mike Pelfrey (30)
Ervin Santana (31)
Jason Vargas (31)
Edinson Volquez (30)
Chien-Ming Wang (34)
Several pitchers are poised for long term, big money contracts: Arroyo, J. Johnson, Garza, Nolasco, Pelfrey and Santana. These players are all off the Cub radar.
Also not in the mix are former Cub projects who have gone on to better things: Baker, Feldman, Maholm, Lilly, and Marquis.
You then have a crop of pitchers with down seasons who need to work through their issues: Volquez, Haren, Francis, Lincecum Hughes,and Kazmir.
Then you have the class of old pitchers whose time may have past: Kuroda, Hudson, Halladay, Garcia, Oswalt, Carpenter and Colon.
Then you have the pitchers with injuries or histories of injury problems: Floyd, Wang, and Garland.
Of all the pitchers on the list that fit the Cubs M.O. on scrapheap reclamation projects, Hughes, Humber and possibly Floyd fit the bill. Hughes was 4-15, 5.19 ERA last year for the Yankees. He has fallen out of favor and needs a change of venue (and less pressure) to regain his form. Humber is a former White Sox pitcher with a no-hitter on his resume, but has been lost for the last two seasons. He would come cheap. Floyd's last full year was in 2012 where he went 12-11, 4.29 ERA for the White Sox. And injury derailed his 2013 campaign early.
Given the Baker expensive debacle this year, I think the Cubs would look toward Hughes and Humber as 4th and 5th starters next year, with the idea of moving them at the trade deadline.
September 2, 2013
TALENT POOLS
There is a limited number of sources for a baseball team to acquire talent.
At the lowest tier, a front office has several places to sign talent. In the U.S., there are college and high school players subject to the June draft. The most a team could sign is approximately 40 players. The next group are foreign players. The amateur players are now subject to CBA bonus pool restrictions. Most teams sign between 1 to 5 foreign youngsters (ages 16 to 18). The other is foreign professional players. Depending on the type and quality of league (Japanese, Cuban, Mexican, etc.), those talents are equivalent to middle minor league talent. After a certain amount of years of service, minor leaguers who have not been promoted can become minor league free agents. By that time, in their mid to late 20s, they are no longer considered prospects. The most talented still may find work in the high minors as insurance against injury at the major league level. The last area (which has suddenly become a feeding ground for aggressive GMs who want to improve their systems) is the waiver wire/designated for assignment pro player pools. At times, DFA's players do not get claimed and become free agents. Typically, these players have some major league experience and could be an upgrade for bad teams. However, they usually have very little upset potential.
At the next level, ball clubs have their development affiliate minor league clubs. At this point, talent is assigned to various skill levels with the hope that training, experience and pro coaching will increase the probability of success. As a general rule, 2/3 of rookie ball players will get promoted to Class A. More than half of Class A players will get promoted to Class AA where competition level increases several fold. Probably a third of Class AA players get promoted to Class AAA. Depending on various factors, including age, offensive stats, defensive prowess, and the major league club current needs, Class AAA players find themselves "blocked" at this level until an opportunity arises. On average, probably less than a third of AAA players will get any meaningful major league service time in their careers.
The next resource level is obtaining talent from other major league clubs. Major league talent coming from trades is more reliable indicator of future performance than minor league players. That is why it typically costs a team more "assets" (in cash, prospects, or other players) to obtain a quality a major league player. The other source of major league talent is the free agent pool. The top third of the annual FA pool demand top dollar, long term contracts which some teams cannot afford.
So how do successful organizations use these talent pools to their advantage?
Blue Jays general manager
Alex Anthopoulos is an aggressive general manager who does not like to stand pat. He is constantly looking to improve his major league team. Last off season he orchestrated the 12 player blockbuster deal with the Marlins. MLB only approved the deal because the Marlins received viable prospects in exchange. Anthopoulos has been active in the foreign player market. He can market Toronto as an international city.
He starts with a three year plan to build a contender around a present nucleus of major league players. He adds to the core team by not trading away
one of the Blue Jay’s top players. He does not rely on any single talent pool in order to build his major league roster. It is not out of his realm to make minor league trades. When he realized that his upper minor league system was weak, he aggressively worked the waiver wire claiming players from other clubs, then sending them back through to clear so they could be optioned to AAA. If a claimed player made the organizational flow chart, he could also be quickly dispatched if a better player was claimed off waivers a day, a week or month later. In other words, Anthopoulos takes a balanced approach to acquiring talent for the Blue Jays. He is not reliant on one aspect of player development. His focus is the current major league roster and how he can make it better this season and next year. He is not afraid to trade away top prospects for proven major league talent. He is not afraid to sign troubled free agents like Melky Cabrera if that can upgrade his team.
This is what he did just last off season:
There was a record amount of player movement for the Jays while retaining the
great talent already on the major league roster.
Key players lost in free agency: Jason Frasor (to Texas Rangers), Kelly Johnson (to Tampa Bay Rays), Brandon Lyon (to New York Mets), and Carlos Villanueva (to Chicago Cubs).
Players traded to Marlins: Henderson Álvarez, Anthony Desclafani, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis, and Justin Nicolino.
Players traded to Mets: Wuilmer Becrra, John Buck, Travis D'Arnaud, and Noah Syndergaard.
Key players brought in through free agency: Melky Cabrera (formerly with San Francisco Giants), Maicer Izturis (formerly with LA Angels).
Players brought in from Marlins: Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck (traded to Mets), Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and José Reyes.
Players brought in from Mets: R.A. Dickey, Mike Nickeas, and Josh Thole.
Despite the moves, MLB.com stated during spring training that even though "the Jays traded many of the most promising prospects in deals with the Marlins and Mets, but they still have an adequate farm system filled with talent."
To summarize, Anthopoulos uses all aspects of the lower tier talent pools to upgrade his organizational depth. He is not afraid to aggressively promote talent or trade prospects for proven major league talent. He is creative enough to swing complicated three team deals. He scours the waiver wire to supplement his rosters. Then, when he believes there is a chance to have a playoff run, he pulls off a blockbuster trade. Even though some of his moves did not work out, Toronto fans are not up in arms because their GM is using all the tools at his disposal in order to try to make a championship caliber team.
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