November 2, 2012

HOT STOVE WARM UP

The winter baseball season has started with many writers culling the free agent list to speculate where the top fifty will land in 2013. Real movement will begin at the Winter Meetings in December.

But it does not stop the crystal balls from being polished by wordsmiths.

Here are the names currently attached to the Cubs as potential free agent catches:

1. Shaun Marcum, sp (Brewers), 30 years old. He went 7-4, 3.70 ERA in 21 starts. 1.266 WHIP. He made $7.75 million last season. The real issue is that he has an elbow injury or concern. The new front office is like the old front office in that they are willing to take fliers on injured pitchers (example, Maholm for Tommy John repaired Vizcaino.) The Cubs destroyed their starting rotation at the trade deadline, and will try to move Garza this winter. There are no ready capable starters in the minor league system. So the Cubs have to fill the rotation with second or third tier starters just to field a team. (If the Cubs kept Maholm, he would have been cheaper at $6.5 million). The plan will be to try to sign a down pitcher, and if he performs,  to flip him for more prospects at the trade deadline.

2. Jeremy Guthrie, sp, (Rockies-Royals), 33 years old. He went 8-12, 4.76 ERA in 33 starts. He did do better in Kansas City,going 5-3 with 3.16 ERA.  He made $8.2 million. So you do not know what you are getting with Guthrie, bad Rocky or good Royal. He is only has a .417 career winning percentage. But he could give you 180 IP.

3. Ryan Dempster, sp, (Cubs-Rangers), 35 years old. The Cubs pushed him out the door to get a third base prospect from the Rangers. With Texas, he went 7-3 with a high 5.09 ERA in 12 starts and 1.435 WHIP. Was it the AL that made Dempster a dramatically worse pitcher? Or has the decline started? Why would Dempster want to come back to the Cubs who traded him at the deadline?  The Cubs PR department wants to get fans looking forward into the distant future, so bringing back the "ace" of the staff for a 101-loss team seems counterproductive. Dempster made $14 million last season, and would probably want a multi-year guaranteed deal to get a discount.

4. Torii Hunter, of, (Angels), 37 years old. The Angels have no room in the outfield for Hunter. The idea that the Brett Jackson experiment will not pan out is premature. Hunter made $18 million last season.  He hit .313, 16 HR, 92 RBI in a very powerful lineup. It makes little sense to spend $10 million or more on an outfielder on the bare bones rebuilding club when that money can be spent on a #4 starter or three veteran bench players.

5. Dan Haren, sp, (Angels), 32 years old. He made $12.75 million and the Angels have a $15.5 million option to be exercised today if the team wants to sign and trade him. Some believe he is an injury waiting to happen, Haren did make 30 starts for the Angels. He went 12-13, 4.33 ERA, 1.291 WHIP. He would be an expensive acquisition, and would be very difficult to trade at the deadline because of his salary.