The New York Mets have a unique problem. One of their starting pitchers had a break-out season. And he won the NL Cy Young. That should be a good problem to have, especially for the Mets franchise.
But the player is R.A. Dickey. The issues are:
1. He is 38 years old.
2. He is a knuckleball pitcher.
3. He has a had an average journeyman career.
4. He probably wants an expensive extension.
5. Knuckleball pitchers have inconsistent careers.
Dickey's career was unremarkable. He debuted in a short stint with the Rangers in 2001 at age 26. In 2003 and 2004 he was a part time starter, going 9-8 and 6-7 with ERAs over 5.00. He bounced around Seattle and Minnesota. In 2009, he went 1-1. 4.62 ERA in 35 games (1 start) for the Twins.
In 2010, he landed with the Mets as a starter and had is best year: 11-9, 2.84 ERA in 174 IP. At age 36, the Mets signed him to a 3 year/$12.5 million deal.
Dickey was the first knuckleballer to win the Cy Young. He was also a late bloomer. Those two things go against a player. Knuckleball or junk pitchers are usually gimmicks players use to try to extend their careers a year or two. Knuckleballers have consistently and control problems. The only advantage of one is that there is less strain on the shoulder or arm. They become innings eaters, like Dickey last season with a league high 233.2 IP.
Most teams do not favor knuckleballers in the rotation. First, most scouts prefer balanced power pitchers who have an "out" pitch (a curve or a change). Second, most general managers prefer pitchers with multiple pitches (fastball, curve, change or slider) which gives managers more flexibility in case a pitcher does not have one pitch working during that start. Third, it takes a special catcher to catch a knuckleballer. Since most of the pitchers may go anywhere, including the dirt, it takes a toll on a catcher's back and knees. Fourth, the velocity of a knuckleball is dramatically less than a normal major league pitch. As a result, most good hitters can adjust quickly. And once a knuckler fails to knuckle, it turns into batting practice at 65 mph. Fifth, knuckleballs are difficult to throw for strikes. That leads to higher on-base percentages for opponents, and potential big innings.
Dickey throws his knuckleball "harder" than most pitchers of the genre. His knuckler is thrown in the high 70s. The twist with Dickey is that he throws his knuckle ball at two different speeds (one, 73-75, the other 76-80.) Most pitching coaches preach that the change in velocity of a pitch is a pitcher's greatest weapon against a major league hitter. It throws off the hitter's timing.
So Dickey is a unique pitcher. But he is also a pitcher that throws an historically inconsistent pitch.
Pitching is a premium in baseball. Dickey is an innings eater. He had a career year. The problem with the Mets is that Dickey will be asking for a contract extension. Is it good to sign a pitcher into their 40s? Or is it better to trade Dickey when his "value" as a starter is at its peak? Dickey went 20-6, 2.73 ERA in 34 games in 2012.
The Mets went 77-88, finishing 4th in the NL East. The team is caught in a near-rebuilding mode. They have two young pitchers who can compete for rotation spots. It is probably a coin flip of what the Mets will do with Dickey this off-season.
