November 6, 2012

SHORT VISION

Cubs GM Hoyer was quoted by ESPN Chicago about the work at hand for the 2013 season. One of the holes to fill is center field. He is looking for a "short" deal free agent for whom they can trade at the deadline. It seems like a empty fantasy.

Here is a list of free agent center fielders:

Rick Ankiel (33)
Michael Bourn (30) - received qualifying offer
Josh Hamilton (32) - received qualifying offer
Reed Johnson (36)
Mitch Maier (31)
Nyjer Morgan (32)
Angel Pagan (31)
Scott Podsednik (37)
Grady Sizemore (30)
B.J. Upton (28) - received qualifying offer
Shane Victorino (32)
Dewayne Wise (35)

Any player with a qualifying offer who does not re-sign with his team carries with him the loss of his new team's first round draft choice. For the Cubs, that is the #2 pick. There is no way that the Cubs will want to forfeit the #2 pick in the draft.

The next problem with the CF FA list is that no other player is under the magic "30 years old" standard that Team Theo has advocated since day one. Yes, it is an arbitrary age in a long term rebuilding cycle.

If you get around the age factor, who left in the list that is a candidate for a flip-trade?

You can eliminate the journeymen: Ankiel, Johnson, Podsednik and Wise.
You can eliminate Sizemore due to injury issues.

Maier played only 32 games with the Royals and batted .172.

Morgan played 122 games with the Brewers. He batted .239, 3 HR, 16 RBI and 12 SB. He made $2.35 million last season.

Pagan is the former Cub who played 154 games for the Champion Giants. He hit .288, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 29 SB and lead the lead in triples (15). He made $4.85 million last season and will command a hefty raise today.

Victorino's career has been slowly sliding since his Phillies days. In 2012, he played for Phils and Dodgers. In 154 games, he hit. .255, 11 HR, 55 RBI and 39 SB. He made $9.5 million last season and could get a raise in a weak free agent market this off season.

The Cubs are kidding themselves if they think Pagan or Victorino would sign with a last place team on a short term deal. Quality free agents control their own destiny. They tend to go to big market "contending teams" on long term deals.