When the Cubs convention rolls around in a few weeks, fans who are expected to pay top dollar for game tickets, will be showered with marketing images of the Cubs best 2012 player, Darwin Barney.
Rarely has a big market team relied upon a .254 hitting second baseman with no power (7 HR, 44 RBI) to be the centerpiece image of the franchise. Barney, based upon his .997 fielding percentage, had the best player WAR at 4.6.
But after an historic 101 loss season, it is hard to find a diamond in the rough.
With the business side of the operation really not cutting any ticket prices as a recognition that the fans should not be paying top dollar for a AAA team, it is on the baseball side of the operation to solidify the team weaknesses and field a more competitive team in 2013. Instead, we have heard one word, "patience."
Well, patience in waiting for a slew of low minor league prospects to develop is The Plan to make a competitive roster, the world now knows a MLB team can almost totally turn over their roster and become a divisional favorite overnight; see, the Toronto Blue Jays.
This post season, the Cubs have done the following:
In October: traded for Tiger RHP Marcelo Carreno, claimed Twins RHP Carlos Gutirrez, lost Chris Volstad, Manuel Corpas, Joe Mather to free agency, and signed free agent SS Edwin Maysonet.
In November: claimed Rockies RHP Zach Putnam, signed free agents Scott Baker (P), Jothermyn Chavez (RF), Alberto Gonzalez (2B), J.C. Boscan (C), Brian Bogusevic (LF), Dionner Navarro (C), Shawn Camp (RP), traded Jacob Bingham (P) to the Rangers for RHP Barret Loux, sold Bryan LaHair (1B) to Japan, signed free agent RHP Scott Feldman, cut and demoted Casey Coleman (P), lost Zach Putnam (P) and Jaye Chapman (P) to free agency.
In December: signed free agent OF Roberto Caro, claimed RHP Hector Rondon from Cleveland, signed free agent RHP Jensen Lewis, RHP Kyuji Fujikawa, Ian Stewart (3B) and RHP Chang Yong Lim, claimed P Sandy Rosario off waivers from Boston, and designated LHP Jeff Beliveau for assignment.
If one examines the glaring off-season needs of the team, here are the areas of urgent concern:
THIRD BASE:
The 2012 Cubs needed to replace Aramis Ramirez's production (.306 BA, 26 HR, 93 RBI in 149 GP).
Ramirez had a 2.5 WAR in 2011.
Ian Stewart hit only .201 in 55 games. In the last two seasons, he has a negative 0.8 WAR.
Luis Valbuena hit only .219 in 90 games. In the last two seasons, he has a 0.1 WAR.
Josh Vitters hit only .121 in 36 games (109 PA). He had a negative 1.3 WAR.
The combined third basemen for the Cubs produced a negative 2.0 WAR.
SOLUTION:
Send Vitters to AAA to regain his swing and confidence.
Re-sign Stewart to play third base, even though he is still rehabbing from his wrist injury which has plagued him for the last several seasons.
2013 Expectation:
None. A platoon of Stewart and Valbuena will not yield even an average replacement player level of performance.
STARTING PITCHING
The Cubs traded away Ryan Dempster and Paul Maholm. Chris Volstad was claimed by the Royals. The Cubs still want to trade Matt Garza, but he is injured and will not pitch until spring. The Cubs needed to replace half of the rotation.
SOLUTION:
Sign free agent pitchers Scott Baker and Scott Feldman. Both pitchers are coming off serious injuries. Baker, 31, did not pitch at all in 2012. Baker is coming off Tommy John surgery. Theo Epstein was quoted that he does not set out looking for Tommy John guys, but it weak market so he has to take risks. Some players come back from TJ surgery (there is an 85% rate), but even those who make it back may lack control, command or velocity. Feldman had 21 starts in 2012 for the Rangers, going 6-11 with a 5.09 ERA. He had been demoted to the bullpen duty until injuries hurt the Rangers rotation. The Rangers cut him in the off-season. In 2011, he had a knee injury. He projects as a fifth starter.
2013 Expectation:
Below average. It is uncertain when Baker will be actually available to start games (April-to late May are projections). Baker and Feldman are not going to put up the same Cub production numbers of Dempster (2.6 WAR) and Maholm (1.4 WAR).
CENTER FIELD
The Cubs started the season with Marlon Byrd in center, but in the end tried Brett Jackson. Jackson hit only .175 in 44 games with 4 HR 9 RBI (0.1 WAR). He played like a AAA player, and that is where he will start in 2013.
SOLUTION:
Sign free agent OF Nate Schierholtz, who batted a combined .257, 6 HR 21 RBI as a bench player for the Phils and Giants (0.8 WAR), and move David DeJesus to CF. Schierholtz has never been a starting outfield in his entire six year career. DeJesus hit .263 with 9 HR, 50 RBI in 2012, playing twice as many games (100) in RF than CF. He had a 1.6 WAR.
2013 Expectation:
Below average. Schierholtz does not even replace weak hitting DeJesus in the power position of RF. DeJesus moving to CF does not give the team more range or a better defense.
Most of the Cubs off-season moves have been to fill upper minor league spots and trying to find bench players for 2013 from the journeyman pool of AAAA talent. As it currently stands, the 2013 Cubs project on paper to be a slightly worse team than the 2012 club.
