December 7, 2012

STEWARTS OF THE FRANCHISE

Sun Times writer Gordon Wittmeyer gets it, when he writes "Unless you’re a Cubs fan who’s been living under a rock the last 12 months, the second-year regime’s player-evaluation methods have become obvious to the point of predictable."

The point of his story is that the Cubs short term game plan is to gamble on injured players. 

If Theo Epstein wanted to collect props from a M*A*S*H unit, he is in the wrong business. The post-op ward is filled with pitchers with significant injury history: Baker, Feldman and now Rondon. Add to the mix the re-signing of Ian Stewart (with incentives will make more than last season) who is still rehabbing from wrist surgery, people have to begin to wonder.

But the Tribune's Phil Rogers is not one of them. He liked the Stewart re-signing as a low risk, high reward type of move. He writes that since the Cubs lost Jeff Keppinger to the White Sox, the Stewart move made sense to fill the third base hole, with the possibility to trade Luis Valbuena.

Now, is Stewart the best solution for the Cubs? No. Kevin Youkilis is still on the market, with one credible offer from the Yanks for 1 year/$12 million. Mark Reynolds is still on the market as a viable starter.  The rest of the free agent journeymen include Chone Figgins, Jack Hannahan, Orlando Hudson, Brandon Inge, Adam Kennedy, Jose Lopez and Casey McGhee. Even former Cub Marquez Smith was available in the Rule 5 draft.

The Stewart re-signing is the front office trying to save face for the Tyler Colvin trade.

And we know from experience, players coming back from wrist injuries have a difficult time re-adjusting to major league pitching, and their power numbers go down. 

The gambling on injured players as a novelty is one thing; as a flyer to upgrade a position later on in a season. But as a year after year solution to fill the active roster to field a competitive team, it is the Hail Mary of management decision making. 

It also shows a stubbornness not to build the team in a balanced way. The Epstein plan is to build a contender ONLY through his own draft choices and player development. Epstein claims this very long, time consuming re-organization of the minor league talent will "pay off" in the long run. But in fact, the Cubs, a big market team with a loyal fan base, can still spend money at the major league level and field a competitive team year after year WHILE the minor league system is re-stocked with prospects. You don't have to make Soriano-type long term deals that will block a prized prospect's eventual promotion. But none of the current Epstein prospects is expected to reach the majors for another three years.