The Cubs took the money dangled for Anibal Sanchez and with a magician's top hat reach, turned it into Edwin Jackson and Carlos Villanueva.
Sanchez has a career 14.2 WAR. Last season he had a 1.2 WAR.
Jackson has a career 11.4 WAR. Last season he had a 1.6 WAR.
Villenueva has a career 4.9 WAR. Last season he had a 1.2 WAR.
From this quick overview, the Cubs spent better on Jackson and Villanueva than if they just signed Sanchez, 2.8 WAR to 1.2 WAR last season.
The Cubs have stockpiled previous starters on the roster, even though several are still coming off serious injuries and may not be ready for Opening Day: Garza's elbow and Baker's and Vizcaino's Tommy John surgeries. Also, the Cubs promised Feldman when he signed that he would be a starter.
If one assumes that Garza and Baker have extended spring trainings, the Opening Day rotation looks like this:
1. Jackson, 10-11, 4.03 ERA, 1.218 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
2. Samardzija, 9-13, 4.07 ERA, 1.219 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
3. T. Wood, 6-13, 4.27 ERA, 1.199 WHIP, 0.6 WAR
4. Villanueva, 7-7, 4.16 ERA, 1.269 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
5. Feldman, 6-11, 5.09 ERA, 1.383 WHIP, 0.0 WAR
These starters combined 2012: 38-55(40.8 winning percentage), 5.0 WAR.
The Cubs team winning percentage last year was 37.7.
Last year's Opening Day rotation had a 5.4 WAR (which includes Volstad's negative 1.9 WAR).
So on paper, this starting rotation is slightly below last year's starters.
However, if you replace Villanueva and Feldman with Garza and Baker, last season's WAR of 1.0 and N/A (injured) is about the same. If Baker returns to average form, his average WAR is 2.1 prorated for half a season, overall, the rotation would be a slight improvement over 2012.
By July, one would project the Cubs rotation to be:
1. Jackson
2. Samardzija
3. Garza
4. Baker
5. T. Wood (being the only lefty starter on the roster)
Villanueva has had success in the bullpen. Feldman would in turn be long relief and spot starter.
The back of the bullpen with Fujikawa, Russell and Marmol.
In corresponding 40 man roster moves, I expect Raley and Rusin to be designated for assignment/waived back to AAA.
