ESPNChicago's Jesse Rogers had a column this week which basically endorsed the Epstein-Hoyer Cub rebuilding plan. It is all about beefing up the minor league system and developing home grown talent.
The author acknowledges that half of the fan base has bought into the plan. The other half has not because there is no guarantee that it will work.
What Rogers does not mention are the critical "risks" of an all-minor league rebuild plan:
1) Less than 6% of all prospects make the major leagues, and less than 3% are starter caliber.
The percentages are less for international players.
2) The assumption is that Epstein and Hoyer can evaluate talent (or hire the right scouts).
3) Their first international signee was a Cuban LHP named Concepcion, who signed a multi-million dollar deal and vanished from the minor league rosters this year (I mean, there was no article at all on him, injured, cut or otherwise).
4) Just signing prospects does not mean that the team can develop them into major league talent. The Cubs have a history of great five tool prospects (Patterson, Pie, etc) who have failed.
5) The problem with the plan is that the Cubs are stashing their prospects in the low minors and holding them back from advancing quickly through the system. Some organizations do not require a year to year promotion plan through the minors (Rookie, A, A+, AA, AAA) because there is so much wear and tear a player has in his shoulder, arm, etc. The Cubs plan appears to keep prospects off the roster for five years or more.
6) Even if the prospects get to the majors, you need the right coaches to continue to develop them, teach them adjustments, etc. That was the reason Sveum was fired because of the regression of Rizzo and Castro.
This year's playoff teams did have home grown talent on their rosters. The Cardinals called up several young contributors during the season who performed quite well. But the playoff roster does contain numerous free agents (Beltran, Holliday, etc.) who are the foundation for the team's success.
Critics of the Cubs plan claim that it is a near sighted approach. It focuses only on developing draft picks and international signees instead of improving the major league product. Critics also note that the front office has no Plan B if this minor league rebuild plan fails.
