The Red Sox went from a disastrous implosion to the World Series in a year. The team did so not by rebuilding but re-tooling its existing roster to fill in the needs in order to be competitive. It worked.
The Cubs have decided to blow up the entire organization and start from scratch. The major league roster has been filled with AAA players because in reality, any waiver wire move means that claimed player is valued or ranked 1,200 or higher (30 teams times 40 man protected rosters). The Cubs have been running their organization like an expansion team. So how long did it take the last four expansion teams to find success?
In 1969, Montreal Expos were awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has garnered only 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened in 1980 (90-72). That was 13 years after it started the franchise. It's first playoff appearance happened in the strike shortened 1981 season, losing in the NLCS. It took another 20 years for the team, now the Nationals, to reach the playoffs in 2012.
In 1993, Miami was awarded a franchise. Throughout its history, it has 2 World Series championships, 2 pennants in 2 playoff appearances. It's first winning season happened after 5 years in 1997 (92-70) and a championship. The next WS championship happened in 2003, 11 years after its initial charter.
In 1998, Tampa came into the league. Throughout its history, it has 1 pennant and 3 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came after 11 years in 2008 (97-65) when they lost in the World Series.
Also in 1998, Arizona came into the league. In its history, it has 1 World Series championship, 1 pennant and 5 playoff appearances. It's first winning season came in year 2 (100-62), losing in the LDS. In year 4 of existence, the Diamondbacks won the World Series in 2001.
If we take these examples, we find that it takes a modern expansion team 7.75 years to obtain a winning record and approximately 8 years to make the playoffs.
The Cubs have completed only year 2 of the rebuild with little prospects of improvement in 2014. Taking the past as a guide to the future, the Cubs will need at least 5 more years of rebuilding to become a competitive/playoff team. That projects to 2018 which is beyond the prior guesses from local media pundits. That is long time to wait.
If the Cubs current 10 percent decline in annual attendance continues during this long rebuild process, it is estimated that by the time 2018 rolls around, attendance would be down 876,000 patrons to about 1.535 million. Attendance is a key barometer of fan support. The pure expansion team model can lead to tough times at the box office and further constrict payroll when the time comes to "fill in the gaps" during free agency.
