SHUFFLING THE DECK CHAIRS

 Everyone knows the Cubs are a sinking ship. Tom Ricketts continues to declare "biblical" losses during the 2020 season. Theo Epstein could not part the sea of red ink. So Theo decided to bail; he cut a deal where his friend, Jed Hoyer, would retain his job with the new President title. The move saves Ricketts $10 million in Theo's 2021 salary. (The Athletic reported that recently the Cubs laid off 100 employees which we assume does not count the scouting and minor league staff let go early in the year.)

The Cubs are still a highly leveraged (debtor) team. The Ricketts family is also highly leveraged due to their overbuilding around Wrigley Field. The pandemic crushed their real estate holdings as many tenants, including Joe Maddon's restaurant, went out of business. Tom Ricketts had convinced his parents that the Cubs were a money making machine even in bad times (under the Tribune ownership).

But the Cubs bowing out early in the playoffs since the World Championship has hurt the club, both financially and structurally. Theo and Jed put all their eggs in early first round (can't miss) prospects like Bryant, Schwarber, Almora and Happ while overpaying for free agents to fill roster gaps (especially in pitching.) 

Since 2016, the team core (Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Contreras and Schwarber) have not lived up to high expectations. Instead of a dynasty, the Cubs gained one World Championship (which was a generational accomplishment not to be dismissed in their legacy). But as 2021 is around the corner, the cupboard is bare.

Three fifths of the starting rotation is gone to free agency. The core of Bryant, Baez, Rizzo and Schwarber are in their final contract years. The Cubs minor league system is devoid of any major prospects. The system ranked 26th with Nico Hoerner the only Top 100 prospect.

2021 appears heading toward a "crash and burn" season. The pundits believe the Cubs should trade their pending free agents to get something for them (other than a compensation draft pick). But others note that those players are coming off bad seasons so they have little trade value. A few writers even speculated that the Cubs could non-tender Schwarber to save his projected $8 million arbitration award. No team is going to take Bryant and his $18.5 million projected salary as a rental player, especially with his injury history and poor 2020 stats.

The only players with real trade value are Darvish and Hendricks. But Hoyer cannot be insane to trade away his remaining starters for prospects. Internal candidates to fill the rotation are Mills, Alzolay and Rea. Ian Happ was the only player to show a break out potential to other clubs. But trading Happ leaves Almora the sole center field candidate.

Even though money came off the books (Lester, Chatwood, Quintana), that money appears to be lost in 2021 as Ricketts clearly indicated that the payroll must come down substantially. As of today, there is not one AAA player who projects to be a starting MLB player. 

Another problem is that the fan base may not support another complete tear-down rebuild. The Cubs were good enough in a bad division to have middle round draft picks but it will be more hit and miss since the scouting department was gutted in 2020. Player development has always been an issue for this team. Hoyer indicated that he may rely more on advanced stats than scouting eyes. But that has been the problem with stat overload on major league players (and a rotation of coaches preaching new approaches). 

The Epstein era had the Worst of Times and the Best of Times and now fades back to the Worst of Times. For diehard Cub fans, the White Sox resurgence with young, exciting players, is going to be bitter pill to swallow as the Cubs begin to wallow.

IDENTIFY AND DEVELOP

There has been a recent debate on how well the Epstein Cubs Era is fairing this season. It seems the position depth has fallen off (and it is short by carrying an extra pitcher in the bullpen).

There are two independent factors at play on why the Cubs do not have a Dodger like minor league pipeline of quality starting players. First, is the ability to identify talent. Can your scouts and front office have the ability to see whether a high school or college player has "major league stuff." Second, is the ability to develop the talent's skills to major league levels. More people side on the the second factor as the reason that the Cubs farm system is devoid of talent. We have harped for years about the inability of the Epstein crew to draft, sign and develop a major league starting pitcher for the Cubs.

Looking at objective figures, is this true?

Between 2000 and 2011, 11.2 percent of minor league baseball players made it to the major leagues.
That seems to be the standard for which teams should be judged.

In regard to rounds prospects have been picked, a study showed the percentages of getting to the majors:

1st round: 66%
2nd round: 49%
3rd -5th rounds: 32%
6-10 rounds: 20%
11-20 rounds: 11%
21-40 rounds: 7%

The distribution seems to be clear: the best chance is to hit on your first 5 round picks every year, which would equal a 12.5% percentage hitting the major leagues per draft year.

What has happened in the Epstein Era drafts:

In 2012, only #1) Almora CF and #8) Bote SS have made it to the majors out of 43 picks.
In 2013, only #1) Bryant 3B and #2) Zastryzny LHP made it to the majors (with only Bryant a full time starter) out of 40 picks.
In 2014, only #1) Schwarber C and #3) Zagunis C made it to the majors (with Schwarber starting to lift his platoon status) out of 40 picks.
In 2015, only #1) Happ 2B made it to the majors (but now he has been demoted to AAA) out of 40 picks.
No one from the 2016, 2017 or 2018 drafts have made it to the Cubs major league roster.

If you only count 2012-2015 draft classes as the litmus test, only 7 of 163 selections made it to the Cubs major league roster (4.29%).  If you only count full time starters, then only 2 of 163 selections made it to the Cubs major league roster (1.22%).

Clearly, the Cubs have underperformed the 11.2% standard for prospect to major league promotion.

Adbert Alzolay was signed as a amateur free agent in 2012. He has spent more than 6 years to get his chance on the Cubs major league roster. That is a long time (the maximum time limit) to control a minor league prospect. As of this writing, he had a good first long relief outing, and is expected to spot start against the Braves. He would be the first Theo signed pitching prospect to potentially stick on the roster (fingers crossed).

When you factor in the pool of amateur free agent signing across baseball (international), the objective standard actually falls to around 10% promotion rate. With all the Cub international signings, the team's success rate is probably below the 4.29% above.

Epstein's Cub prospect development and promotion rate is 62 % below the average MLB standard. If you score only 38% on your test paper, most would call that a failure.

ANOTHER ARM

The Cubs first round draft choice was a college starting pitcher.

MLB.com stated:

27) Cubs: Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State

This is the biggest surprise of the first round so far, as Jensen was ranked No. 99 on our ranking of the top 200 Draft prospects. There's a lack of college pitching in this Draft, however, and we may see more teams push some college arms up their Draft boards, as the Cubs appeared to here. Jensen has one of the best fastballs in the college class, usually working at 94-98 mph and maintaining his velocity into the late innings. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, as is his control, and he doesn't have a real big frame (6-foot, 180 pounds), so he could be a reliever.

It is surprising that the Cubs reached for a third round prospect in the first round. It is another small frame pitcher who projects to be a reliever.
First round arms are supposed to be starters (unless you are a dominant career closer like the White Sox Burdi) because all relievers are failed starters.

High velocity throwers are nice, but can they pitch to make outs?

The reason the Cubs picked a college pitcher: to try to fast track him to the majors. The minor league system is devoid of any immediate help for the pitching staff. Could Jensen's velocity be enough to be a late season call-up to bolster an overworked bullpen? It is doubtful. But the Cubs window for a second championship run is closing fast with the improvements in their own division rivals.

The Cubs in the Theo era have NEVER developed their own starting pitcher. The first round choice is already pegged for relief duty by scouts. 

It appears that the Cubs cannot solve their pitching problems by spending any money. Kimbrel and Keuchel are unrestricted free agents, but the Cubs are not thought to be interested in either. Ricketts has said he would not allow the Cubs to go over the luxury cap (where the Cubs payroll was on Game 1). The front office has been squeezing nickels out of dimes to supplement the roster. When the Indians gave up on Carlos Gonzalez (he was hitting .210), the Cubs picked him up for a prorated league minimum (from part of the payroll savings of not paying Zobrist who is on the restricted list). This is like trying to find lost change under the sofa cushions in order to buy a pizza.

Do not be surprised if the Cubs front load more pitchers in this year's draft because that seems to be the overriding need for the system.

LAME DUCKS

Maddon said Morrow, who currently is on the 10-day injured list, struggled in his recovery from throwing off the mound earlier this week.

"The bounceback after the last time out wasn't as good," Maddon said. "So, we've got to back off of him once again and just slow things down. That's just where he's at. It's not unlike what had been going on (last season). It was all trending very well and then, like I said, this last time, just not as good. So, we just have to pay attention to what he's saying."

Pat Hughes was marveling yesterday  on the radio that the home crowd could reach 38,000.
Really? A 70 degree Saturday on a holiday weekend and only get 38,000 fans? It should have been
48,000 standing room only. But the game casts continue to hard sell single game, special event and
suite ticket packages like a desperate snake oil salesman. It is another sign that money is tight for the Cubs. Every unsold ticket is a lost asset.

It does go to show that Ricketts have clamped down on pennies and dimes for the baseball club.
Morrow cannot be counted on returning, and there is zero movement to find his replacement.
Kimbrel is still unemployed which is baffling for clubs in need of relief pitching.

But Theo has repeated his Boston downfall: overspending on players who underperform.
Morrow $21 million; Chatwood $33 million; Darvish $126 million = $180 million bust.
If you add the Hamels $20 million option to cover for the bad Darvish deal, that is an entire
season salary budget on four players.

As Maddon is the lame duck manager, I now wonder if cutting off the dollar taps by ownership
is a real signal that Theo & his Gang are also lame ducks (Theo only has 2 years to go on his contract).

Kenney continues to hype that the new Cubs channel will be like finding an untapped gold mine,
but he is as delusional as Theo was with his recent pitching acquisitions. The Dodger Network deal has been a disaster for broadcast partner Time-Warner. Regional sports networks are in flux due to the Disney-Fox merger. The Cubs trying to start their own network in an era of cord cutting cable viewers without a strong local partner is a recipe for disaster.

The Cubs struggled to get to .500, then Darvish gave up two back-to-back jacks in the first inning to set the tone for another bad day. He calmed down some, but was pulled again in the fifth inning when the offense failed to show up. Now, Chatwood takes the mound for a Lester DL start. The consensus is today's pitching is going to be bad as Chatwood became the lame duck when Hamels returned to help anchor the rotation.

The old saying is true: you cannot win the division early in the season, but you can certainly lose it. The NL Central continues to be highly competitive, with the Pirates surging past the Brewers into first place.

TILT

The Cubs have started the urgency of the 2019 campaign like a bunch of Keystone cops falling over each other. It started with horrible pitching, then moved on to terrible fielding, then moved on to lack of hitting, and finally to questionable base running. After another bullpen meltdown, Jon Lester claimed that the team feels "the pressure" from the front office.

Yes, Theo Epstein was mad at the end of last season. He wants the players to take accountability for their performance. Prospects are no longer potential players. He wants results. Now.

But in reality, Epstein is both diverting the blame and redirecting his anger against ownership. He created this roster of underperforming, overpaid pitchers. He created the atmosphere of dread by not extending Joe Maddon's contract. He overspent on players in the past two seasons which gave him no payroll flexibility in this off-season to fix any glaring problems.

In all levels of the organization, the Cubs have fallen flat on their faces.

The fan angst will boil with another Yu Darvish start. He says he is fine; his pitching coach thinks there is a problem with his pelvic tilt; or vice versa. The embrace of big data in pitching (the
Cubs have a motion capture system where each pitcher in spring training threw a "base line" delivery) is further messing with the mental aspects of the pitcher's routine. Carl Edwards suddenly showed up in the first series with a new (illegal) delivery. There is no confidence that the coaching staff has any real insight or control of the staff.

But things get stranger. In the midst of the losing streak, David Bote suddenly gets a five year, $15 million extension. WTF? Bote got an extension before Schwarber, Almora, Baez or Contreras? Bote is not even a STARTER. Why is he getting a raise five times more than he would normally earn? Is Theo a spendthrift? Or was this giving ownership a quick middle finger? Clearly, the front office is also on tilt with this extension.

The team is playing bad, the front office has no answers, and the Brewers are off to a hot start. This all plays into the gloom and doom of the season opening 9 game road trip.

THE INDICTMENT

The national news is filled with Chicago criminal headlines of celebrity favoritism, clout and pandering to voters. But the real indictment is the following:

When you looking at this pitching staff, what do you see?

STARTING PITCHERS
Yu Darvish
Cole Hamels
Kyle Hendricks
Jon Lester
Jose Quintana


RELIEF PITCHERS
Brad Brach
Tyler Chatwood
Steve Cishek
Carl Edwards Jr.
Brandon Kintzler
Mike Montgomery
Randy Rosario
Pedro Strop

The answer is obvious and criminal: none of these pitchers were drafted and developed by Theo Epstein.

Every one came by trade or free agency. 

In seven years (seven amateur drafts), Epstein and company have failed to draft a pitcher and develop them to be on this year's 2019 Opening Day roster.  

As a result, the starting rotation is the financial sinkhole of the team. If you include 6th starter Tyler Chatwood, the rotation's payroll is $97.9 million (or 47.5% of total budget).

The bullpen does not have a real, full time quality closer. Brandon Morrow is still on injured reserve, but his health for 2019 is always going to be a nagging issue. 

As we have opined for years, the lack of developing home grown pitchers is killing the Cubs ability to make moves, keep a youthful core and combat arm injuries. Now, without any money to spend in case of injury, the Cubs are in a very tight spot in a very competitive NL Central.

MASH UNIT

Did Theo's parents want to become a doctor? A hospital administrator?
Because he keeps running an expensive and dumb MASH unit.

But his latest signing makes absolutely no sense at all:

Former A's pitcher Kendall Graveman is not likely to pitch in 2019. He underwent Tommy John surgery this last July and was non-tendered by  Oakland in November. The Chicago Cubs just signed the injured free agent $575,000 anyway. The Cubs have a history of signing unsigned, injured players to pay for their year of rehab. But why? The player would have to do that on his own. I am not aware of any other major league team signing injured players NOT to play them.

This deal is being sold as a long-term return for Chicago. Not necessarily in 2019, but in 2020. While Graveman’s contract will pay him just more than half a million dollars to rehab, it’s the player option for $3 million going into next year’s off-season is the alleged selling point for both sides.



The deal gives the 28-year-old RHP a little more than a full year to get himself healthy and prove that he can pitch the way he did from 2015-17 when he posted a 4.11 ERA over 407 innings with 255 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.359. But those numbers are not stellar for a starting pitcher.


If for some reason Graveman can make it back in 2019, the Cubs will give him a payday of about $2 million, according to Fancred’s Jon Heyman.

But here is the problem: TJ surgery rehab averages 19 months. At best, he comes back mid-September to throw in a couple of games to get $2 million?????  Even if he does not pitch but is fully recovered, why did the Cubs not keep a TEAM OPTION to sign him for 2020?  Graveman can take the Cubs money, get healthy and walk away into the free agent market to make more money as a STARTING pitcher. Do the Cubs think they are "buying" his loyalty for a half million dollars? Think again. If Graveman does not return to form, which is possible, then he gets to stick the Cubs with the option of $3 million more to continue to rehab or sit out another season.

It is stupid to pay a free agent money to rehab when you can spend the major league minimum for a player who will actually be on the major league roster in 2019 (i.e. a player like Bote).

The Cubs have done some strange things this off-season, but this move is absolutely the dumbest thing the front office has done. The team stated it is short of financial capital to make moves this off-season, but this signing is literally throwing money at a player who cannot contribute anything of meaningful value in 2019.

PAINTED INTO A CORNER

Have you noticed that the Cubs have not been mentioned in any
trade rumors or free agent negotiations?

I heard last week on the radio that one reason may be that
Theo "borrowed" from this year's baseball budget to pay for
Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood. So that may be a bitter pill
on any future spending because it was already spent.

Plus, Darvish, Morrow and Chatwood represent $41.5 million
in 2019 payroll. Add in Heyward, it jumps to 61.5 million
or almost a third of 2019 total payroll budget.

The Cubs are on the hook for $158 million on 13 signed players.
The Cubs still have to sign 27 other players to make the 40 man
roster - - - with some expensive arbitration players like Bryant
in the mix.

The projected salaries for the arb players:

• Kris Bryant (3.171) – $12.4MM
• Kyle Hendricks (4.081) – $7.6MM
• Javier Baez (3.089) – $7.1MM
• Addison Russell (3.167) – $4.3MM
• Kyle Schwarber (3.086) – $3.1MM
• Mike Montgomery (3.089) – $3.0MM
• Carl Edwards Jr. (2.134) – $1.4MM

That totals at least $38.9 million. I think Bryant will get more.

That leaves another 20 players, even at the minimum of $555,000
or $11.1 million creating a current projected payroll of
$208.00 which is dead on the luxury tax number.

This is the corner that Theo has painted himself in.

And last week, he admitted that 2019 is going to be difficult.

On Thursday, Epstein  called the 2019 season a year of ‘‘reckoning’’ for the organization.

As the SunTimes reported,  Epstein  made it clear that, barring moves that free up significant payroll space, the Cubs won’t be adding a nine-figure commitment to their books for the fourth time in five years.

The big, problematic contracts with large balances are clear:   Jason Heyward’s $184 million deal  Yu Darvish’s $126 million contract, and  the $25.5 million owed to right-hander Tyler Chatwood the next two years.

‘‘You can’t just keep shopping without making things fit for your roster and for your payroll and the situation that you’re in,’’ Epstein said. ‘‘I understand the desire for a big name every winter, and there are winters where we do acquire a big name and there will be winters where we don’t acquire a big name. I don’t know what category this winter will fall into yet, but there’s a chance that it’s going to be a winter where we don’t acquire a big name from outside the organization.’’

Nothing is more telling that the Cubs are up against the payroll wall than:

1. Having to trade Smyly's $7 million contract in order to exercise the $20 million option on Hamels.

2. Not having $4 million extra to spend to re-sign Chavez to stabilize a bullpen that will now not have Morrow at the start of the season (he had late elbow surgery in November after sitting out the second half of the season).

Other media outlets outside of Chicago have reported that other teams have heard that the Cubs do not have money to spend to sign top tier free agents. 

Adding to the problem is that the Cubs have very little trade capital. The Cubs farm system is near the lower ranks in MLB. On a scouting scale of 20-80, the Cubs best prospect rates 50. And the Cubs best prospects are at the Class A level. The only trading chips then are on the major league roster, but those candidates (besides Baez) had very down years.

The Cubs overspent in the past years after they tanked to stockpile high draft choices. The plan worked and a championship was won. But the plan was unsustainable when ownership was directing massive resources ($750 million) on non-baseball improvements and business enterprises. The Cubs team is left high and dry with their old roster and bad contract decisions.

 

2019 will be a year of transition. The Cubs players could rebound to have a chance for another championship. Or the team could see their championship window shut. There are no guaranteed dynasties in sports even if you throw a lot of money at it . . .  just think of the 1985 Bears.

THE REHAB TOUR

I was reading comments on a Cubs fan blog, and there is a growing consensus is
that the Cubs organization is quickly falling back into the Tribune ways, i.e.
a crappy organization. When the Trib spent, it was spent unwisely. When the Trib wanted to sell the team, it went small market.

The penny pinching, small market mentality has now seeped to the surface.
Fans were promised a dynasty now see the window closing rapidly.
They are realizing that Ricketts spent all his time and resources building
outside of Wrigley Field than building a second championship team.
The core talent that Theo touts may not be as impressive as the 1929 Yankees.
And the minor league system is now horrible, with no help in sight.

I think fans are getting mad because the Cubs are not tied to talks to ANY notable
free agent, first tier or second tier. They can't understand why they let their best
relief pitcher, Chavez, walk over $4 million when Theo spouted off that performance
now counts more than potential (we are looking at Chatwood's $36 million contract).

The baseball world still cannot figure out why the Cubs had to trade Smyly and his $7 million contract in order to re-sign Hamels. Why did the Cubs pay Smyly millions in 2018 just to rehab his arm? He would have done it without being on a major league DL. But he was "an asset," or "insurance policy" for the rotation in 2019. But in reality, he seemed to be an expensive budget line item.

We have not heard any updates on Bryant's shoulder. If we compare it to the Bears' Trubisky shoulder watch, it seems more grim. Trubisky was day to day with an apparent shoulder bruise or strain. He is expected to be back for the Rams contest in 8 days. Bryant sat out 6 weeks and came back the same - - - unable to fully follow through on his swing. Is there something more on Bryant's shoulder that we do not know about? 

Running through 3 hitting and pitching coaches in 3 years seems to be counterproductive - - - will the new coaches be able to improve underperforming players like a magician? Or is bringing in new coaches merely an illusion to cover-up the mistakes of the front office?


Is 2019 going to be the Rehab Tour? Russell, Chatwood, Darvish, Edwards, Bryant,
Schwarber, Contreras - - -  are they all going to rebound to have career years??

THE ISLAND OF JOE

After weeks of speculation, pitching coach Jim Hickey resigned for "personal reasons."

Most people do not buy it. Hickey was a friend and colleague of Joe Maddon from his Tampa days. The Cubs won 95 games. The Cubs made the playoffs.

But the front office is bitter by the Wild Card bounce. Now, for the third straight season, the Cubs will have a new hitting and pitching coach. So much for stability. And Maddon is not getting a contract extension, so he will be a lame duck manager.

What did Hickey mess up in order to be bought out to resign his position? The front office spend money on starters Tyler Chatwood, Yu Darvish, reliever Steve Cishek and closer Brandon Morrow. Only Cishek had a good season (80 relief appearances, 2.18 ERA). Chatwood was an uncontrollable disaster, Darvish was hurt and Morrow's injury history took him out for the second half of the season.

Despite the free agent flubs, the Cubs pitching staff year end NL stats were as follows:

2nd in Wins (95)
2nd in ERA (3.65)
4th in Saves
1st in IP
5th in Hits Allowed
4th in HR Allowed
14th in Walks
12th in Strikeouts

The last two bottom of the league states (BB/K) shows that the pitching staff had control issues, but despite those issues won 95 games and was second in team ERA.

Just as hitting coach Chili Davis was brought in last season to improve contact rate, OBP and opposite field hitting, he was fired apparently because his message did not "mesh" with the younger players. Epstein was highly critical that the Cubs offense collapsed in the second half of the season.

The Cubs hitting ranks were:

4th in Runs Scored
11th in HRs
13th in SB
4th in Walks
7th in Strikeouts
1st in Batting Average
2nd in On-Base Percentage (OBP)
6th in Slugging
6th in Total Bases

In today's stat era, having a hitting coach on a team that ranks first in BA and second in OBP would be praised as being successful. The two under performing categories were HRs and SBs, but stat gurus now discount the stolen base as obsolete in the modern game. Despite being middle of the pack in walks, slugging and total bases, the Cubs still won 95 games.

The team stats show that in one respect the Cubs overachieved to win 95 games. Some writers think 2018 was Maddon's best managerial season as he juggled injuries and player slumps in both hitting and fielding. But Maddon critics still think he is failing to develop the young core into superstar talent.

There is mounting circumstantial evidence that there is a rift between ownership, baseball operations and the team (coaches and players). The idea that the Cubs had to dump salary to exercise the option on Cole Hamels set off "small market" alarm bells that the Cubs were not going to spend over the $206 million luxury tax cap. The team is projected to bump up near that cap amount after arbitration awards to their existing players. In Boston, Epstein buried his bad signings and dead money deals by going out and overpaying for big name free agents. That escape plan is not going to happen for 2019. His roster is trapped by bad contracts and under performing young players. If he is going to re-work the roster, it will have to be through trades but the Cubs minor league system has no great major league ready prospects to pull off a mega-deal.

The tension between Epstein and Maddon is clear. Epstein said that Maddon should have not thrown Morrow three days in a row (which allegedly caused the season ending arm injury). But Morrow's injury did not stop the Cubs from winning 95 games as Pedro Strop came in to spot close (until he got hurt running the bases in a move universally critical of Maddon's managing move). It is clear that the front office is hiring the next coaching staff, not Maddon. They have isolated Maddon from gathering his own coaching staff and loyalty. Whether that is a move to force Maddon's hand to resign we do not know. But Maddon's personality is not the type to walk away from a fight, even within the organization. The Cubs cannot outright fire Maddon because he is the figurehead who brought desperate Cubs fans a multi-generational World Series championship.

The firings of Davis and Hickey were sacrifices to ownership for not fully monetizing the season. Someone had to take the brunt of the blame for not going deep in the playoffs (and thus having a large revenue shortfall). It is highly unlikely that a new hitting coach is going to turn .240 career hitters into .300 hitters or a new pitching coach is going to turn Darvish into Cy Young or Chatwood into a All-Star starter.

How Maddon will react to this back office soap opera will be telling; he can either go through the moments in 2019 or try to re-ignite the loose, highly spirited championship locker room. Some believe that Maddon's goofy events worked well with rookies and young players because it made them not "think" about hitting or batting. But as the years went on, Maddon's carefree stunts lost its message and the players seemed to tighten up. It is not that Maddon has lost players confidence, but he lost his edge as a player-friendly manager. At times, coddled players need some tough love (and much of that is messaged through the manager's assistant coaches). If Hickey and Davis' departures are because the players did not get along with them, then this is the beginning of the end as teams that have the players run the asylum are doomed (like late in Dusty Baker's Cub tenure.) We know Epstein wants to be close to "his guys" in the locker room and conversations with players had impact on the Davis dismissal.

If the front office wants a remote control manager who will run the pre-programmed line up and field calls driven by stat percentages, then Maddon is not that type of employee. He still has enough old school baseball instincts that defy new conventions. Change is coming to the Cubs dugout sooner than we as fans expected before the start of the 2018 season.

HITTING THE IVY PADDED WALL

The happy family facade at Clark and Addison is beginning to crack.

The national media is confused by how the Cubs front office is acting this off-season. Even local writers have woken up to the prospect that the Cubs may not be the Midwest, free spending, big market Yankees.

It began when Theo Epstein post season autopsy, er, press conference left a lasting impression that Theo was not happy. He stressed the fact that the team has to focus in on performance and not talent. It means highly prized prospects have to perform better in order to keep their spot. But on the flip side, the Cubs brass have always been enamored with "their guys."  They will keep their guys well past their trade value. And now, Epstein admits, that the 2019 roster improvement will have to come via trades.

It is stunning reversal for the genius baseball gods. The plan was to draft the best bats available and solve pitching via free agency. Young position players are cheap and controllable up to six years. Veteran reliable pitching, though expensive, is less likely to be busts.  Well, until this year.

The Cubs spent more than $185 million on Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Morrow. The next consensus is that the three star pitchers flamed out badly. Darvish had injury problems from the start. Morrow had a long injury history. And Chatwood was plain bad.

The Cubs have drafted 147 pitchers in the past seven years and they have not developed one quality starting pitcher. Last season, Theo-Jed's farm system produced less than 20 innings of home grown pitching talent. It is a disaster. It has crippled the organization.

The quick promotions of Bryant, Schwarber and Happ have created a prospect vacuum in the minors. The best prospects are now at low A, four or five years away from the majors. Triple A is filled with AAA players with little chance to catch on even in a bench role. The minor league system has little trading chips. And the major league roster has very few "marketable" players to other teams because Russell, Schwarber and Happ are now solid .240 hitters which are a dime a dozen nowadays.

What struck the baseball nation odd was the story that in order for the Cubs to exercise the $20 million option on Cole Hamels, the team had to jettison $7 million in salary (Smyly was traded to the Rangers to clear that budget space.)  Now that type of contract shuffling is what a small market team like the Royals, Rays or Marlins would be accused of doing for a long time.

The Cubs have been in the top 5 in spending, just under the luxury tax threshold. The ceiling goes up $9 million to $206 million in 2019. So one would ask why did the Cubs have issues signing Hamels if the team was getting a $9 million budget bump?  Because the soft salary cap and the real Cubs payroll budget are two different things. The Cubs are already committed $350 million to 11 players. This does not include the arbitration awards for players like Bryant, Hendricks, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Montgomery, Edwards and LaStella. Collectively, these arb players will be paid north of $40 million.

Major caveat: rich people stay rich by not losing money.

Epstein's off-the-cuff remark that the Ricketts have invested $750 million on development around Wrigley Field is telling; the Cubs are secondary in ownership's profit center mindset. You have to realize that the outside development is not owned by the Cubs team. Separate companies own the land and the development of the McDonald's block and the triangle. In fact, the Cubs are a tenant because Wrigley is owned by a different legal entity. Why would Theo know how much the Ricketts invested in the neighborhood? He was told it.

There has always been friction between Epstein, baseball operations and the "business" side of the Cubs run by Crane Kenney and Tom Ricketts. Ricketts wants a return on his "entire" investment and that includes premium events at Wrigley, i.e. concerts or play-off games. When the Cubs bowed out of the playoffs in the Wild Card game, the Cubs lost at least $30 million in gate receipts and the Ricketts enterprises (the hotel, the bars, etc.) lost more than that in revenue. If the business side had counted on annual deep playoff runs in their budget projections, this would have been a huge jolt to ownership.

Perhaps, that is why Epstein has been surly. He cannot buy his way out of bust or dead money deals like he tried to do in Boston. So he has to find a scapegoat, so the hitting coach gets fired after a year (and apparently the pitching coach, Maddon ally Jim Hickey is also out the door.) Epstein blames Maddon for not following "the plan" with Morrow to not pitch him more than two days in a row. Maddon pitched Morrow three times (an extra 6 pitches) that allegedly caused Morrow to get shut down. This deflects the fact that Morrow is a brittle arm, but it gave Epstein some ammo not to extend Maddon's contract. Joe will be a lame duck manager in 2019. And if the league trend continues, he will not be renewed as teams are now hiring inexperienced, stats-savvy guys front offices can control. Such a hiring would save the Cubs at least $5 million in 2020.

As you can tell, these seem to be like nickel and dime, petty things to do. But it may be by necessity. The Cubs have the weakest local television rights contracts for a big market team. In 2020, the Cubs were going to launch their own network. The idea of a multi-billion payday for Cubs broadcasts is now a pipe dream after the Dodgers deal blew up in Time Warner's face. Cable operators are losing subscribers in 2018 at a 300,000/month clip. People will not pay $5/month extra for a sports channel on their already high cable bills. Only a fool would pay a team a Dodger pay-out. (In a telling move, in the past few years, the Steinbrenners, who created the team channel revenue stream,  have divested most of their stake in their YES network.)

It seems that Epstein has hit the wall. He is under strict budget restrictions. That is why there are no rumors, stories or hints that the Cubs are negotiating for Harper or Machado or a starting pitcher like Keuchel. Epstein cannot sign free agents without making room for them in the budget (the Hamels option). He does not have a strong minor league system to either promote players to fill needs or trade prospects for proven talent.

Fans will not complain when the Cubs went "all in" in 2016 to win the World Championship. But now Epstein is sitting a poker table with a very short stack. And he is not happy about it.

DODGING A BULLET

Sometimes, the best move is not to make a move.

As Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes, one of the biggest spring training stories is the one about the "hottest" can't miss free agent to hit the market being a gigantic disappointment.

"Shohei Otani did not have a “great outing” in his final start of the preseason,  unless the definition of great outing has changed since the calendar turned. One official who saw it summed it up as: “He looked pretty much like he’s looked all spring.” The struggles of Otani since he arrived stateside have been glaring. There are plenty of ways to describe his lack of fastball velocity and difficulty commanding the pitch Saturday against a coterie of minor leaguers. * * * *  Lost amid the fact that (he) looks helpless at the plate (3 for 28 in games) and talented but raw on the mound (more runs allowed than outs registered) is that he remains an incredible talent who is under team control for the next six years  at enormously depressed prices."

Gone are the Babe Ruth, two-way player, comparisons.

Otani may turn it around . He could be just having culture shock. Or he has to get up to speed to MLB players and coaching styles. 

But it is hard to believe the observations in spring training were so far off from the glowing scouting reports that had all teams, especially Theo Epstein, wanting to sign this guy.

Lack of velocity on his fastball . . . . bad sign.

Lack of command on his pitches . . . really bad sign.

Looks hopeless at the plate . . .  horrible.

Just think that if the Cubs had signed Otani, there would have been no money left to sign Darvish. And Otani would have been like Jason Heyward, a big money contract that has to play some outfield. That would have pushed Ian Happ to AAA Iowa at the start of the season. It would have been a cascade of failure.

HARD CHOICES

“Sooner or later you reach a point where you have to strongly consider sacrificing some of that depth to address needs elsewhere on the club.  We’re entering a phase where we have to be really open-minded to that if it makes the overall outlook of the team and organization better.” --- Theo Epstein

General managers often fall in love "with their guys." To the point of overvaluing them; overprotecting them from the trade market; and hyping potential over performance.

The Epstein-Hoyer management has their own guys like Lester, Rizzo, Bryant, Schwarber and Happ.

Whether they will stick with their guys or move them will be the major story in the off-season. Much of the early blame to the playoff flame out was on the faltering bullpen and pitching staff (which led to the firing of pitching coach Chris Bosio.) But in reality, the offensive was so bad it would have taken perfect pitching to win against the Dodgers.

The Cubs go into the off-season with a lot of work to do.

The starting pitchers on the roster with major league experience as of this moment: Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, Zastryzny, Montgomery, Tseng.

Relievers on the roster with major league experience: Maples, Strop, Wilson.

From first glance, the Cubs have to sign three more starting pitchers this off season and find seven more major league ready relief pitchers in order to have pitching staff depth in 2018.

One of the great failures of the current Cubs front office is the inability to draft and develop starting pitchers. Approximately 48 percent of all Cub draft choices have been pitchers. The minor leagues is devoid of any can't miss pitching prospects. It puts pressure on the team to go out and trade or sign pitchers (which is the highest value commodity in the off-season).

The projected 2018 rotation is simple: Lester, Hendricks, Quintana, UNKNOWN, UNKNOWN.

The bullpen is more a mess considering Wilson was pegged to be the next closer, and he got dropped from the playoff roster because of his bad performance.

Another problem with the current Cubs team is Maddon's tendency to "over manage" his club. He likes players who can play multiple positions, even if they have never played it before or are not the best at it. Prime example was playing Zobrist in RF. At times, he was slow to break on balls and did not cover much ground. Heyward is a defensive gold glove, but has a concrete bat.

Both Zobrist and Heyward appear to be expensive bench players. Heyward and Zobrist both have not trade clauses. Heyward will make $21.5 million and Zobrist $16.5 million next year.

The infield is set with Bryant, Russell, Baez, Rizzo and Contreras. Caratini projects to be the back up at catcher and first. LaStella projects to be the second super sub off the bench.

The outfield appears to have only Schwarber, Almora and Heyward. Happ seems to Joe's new Tampa Zo, moving from infield and outfield game by game.

With so many major holes to fill with little left in the minors to trade, some contract controlled player will have to be moved in a trade. Schwarber, Baez or Happ seem to be the most likely candidates.

Theo has painted himself into a corner to make some hard choices. The championship hangover is now over. Fans expect the Cubs to be in the playoffs next year to erase the disappointing finish to this season.

BIG RAISE

The breaking news today is that Theo Epstein has signed a 5 year extension to stay with the Cubs.

In 2011, Epstein signed a deal worth $18.5 million.

It is reported that he is now the highest paid baseball executive, which would mean he would surpass the $8 million per year mark set last year by the Dodgers who signed Andrew Friedman away from Tampa.

If true, the Cubs extension gives Epstein a 220% raise from his last contract.

Actual terms of the deal have not been disclosed.

From my vantage point, I thought Epstein would have gone the "free agent" route to see if he could cash in with an equity position with another club. Last week there was a rumor that Epstein would leave baseball to get a "giant" payday in another field, such as using his analytical skills in investment banking or another business venture. These rumors were fueled by the fact that it took the Cubs an extremely long time to come to a deal with the team President (who only has a few weeks left on his original deal.)  Further adding to the fire was that one of Epstein's core managers, scouting director Jason McLeod, was interviewing for a GM position in Minnesota.

It will be interesting to note whether this new deal gives Epstein more power over the budget to run the baseball operations. In the past, he has been put on a tight leash by the business side of the team structure.

Fans will be relieved that the architect of the current club will be around until the budding stars hit their free agency years.

THE WHITE SOX PLAN

For the past week, White Sox management has been reported in disarray on the direction of the team. Will the team sell off parts like Sale, Quintana or Abreu in order to do a complete rebuild of the minor league system? Will Ventura, Hahn or Williams remain part of the management? Will managing partner for the owners, Reinsdorf, even allow a total tear down?

The White Sox just netted $82 million for naming rights for a stadium which the team does not own. There is plenty of extra cash coming into the Sox operations. The question is what to do?

Sox fans look to the North Side and see the Cubs on the verge of a historic World Series run with young talent that is getting better each week. Sox fans envy the Cubs rebuild success. But die hard South Siders can still point to the 2005 WS flag while the Cubs dream is still in hope mode.

But the Sox have done nothing special since their championship season. As everyone is aware, there is no guarantee that any team, no matter how good on paper or how many wins in the regular season, can get a championship or sustain a championship caliber team year to year.

The White Sox front office has stressed this week that this off-season "everyone will be on the same page."  The Sox claim to have a plan. It is an omen that that the Sox just traded catcher Navarro to the Blue Jays for a promising AA left handed relief pitcher?  The White Sox GM Hahn will not say what the team's real direction will be for 2017.

Frustrated sports thinkers believe the Sox have to blow up the team and start from scratch. But that begs another question: do you trust the people currently in charge to rebuild a team?  Granted, the White Sox have been really good at drafting and developing pitching talent. Nine of their top 20 prospects are quality pitchers. It is that the team scouting department cannot draft and develop consistent position players. And management trades and free agent signings have looked good on paper, but in the past two season the team has woefully underperformed their potential.

So what is the real solution for the White Sox woes?

Hire Theo Epstein.

Epstein still does not have a contract extension from the Cubs. Which is highly unusual considering the success the Cubs have had the past two seasons. It appears that Epstein wants to become the ultimate management free agent - - - with a track record to command the most money for a baseball executive and possibly and equity stake in a team.

Epstein has been running the Cubs baseball operations with one hand tied behind his back since the "business side" of the operation is controlled by Crane Kenney and Tom Ricketts. Epstein would prefer to run the entire show.

But in order to do that with the White Sox, Reinsdorf will have to fire Ventura, Hahn and Williams. Reinsdorf is known to be very loyal to his managers. He promoted Williams from GM to President instead of firing him. Can Reinsdorf purge his loyal employees to try to win another championship?

He may not have any choice. The stealing of Epstein from the Cubs would be a PR boom for Sox nation. It would energize the fan base and increase ticket sales. It would be poking a stick in the eye of Cub ownership. Reinsdorf, who is all business, would see the value in hiring Epstein away from his city rival.

But what are the odds that this could happen? With no movement in the Cubs-Epstein contract talks for more than a year, I would say it could be 50-50.  The other big market teams have new management in place (Dodgers, Red Sox).

If the White Sox really want to shake up Chicago baseball this off-season, ownership needs to be bold.

IAN STEWART 2.0

When Tommy LaStella did not report to AAA Iowa in 72 hours after his option, we knew that was odd. Then it was reported that he was dealing with "personal issues." That was strange since there was no more information. Now, 13 days have past and the truth his filtering out.

La Stella’s me-first refusal to report to Triple-A Iowa isn’t connected to any health issue, personal emergency or family crisis, general manager Jed Hoyer and manager Joe Maddon confirmed Tuesday, 11 days after the Cubs optioned out the bench player as a way to make room for outfielder Chris Coghlan and deal with the 25-man roster crunch.

This is the Ian Stewart situation all over again.

The trade for Stewart was the worst under Epstein's tenure with the Cubs. Stewart was supposed to be a high average, power third baseman from Colorado. He turned out to be a dud. He refused an option to AAA to work on his game. Instead, he went home to sulk. In the end, the Cubs had to get rid of him.

La Stella told ESPN that he’s considering retirement if he can’t play for the big-league team. Earlier this season, La Stella explained to his hometown New Jersey newspaper how he temporarily quit baseball in high school and rediscovered the joy of the game with Maddon’s Cubs.

“He’s not angry,” Maddon said before a 5-1 victory over the Los Angeles Angels at Wrigley Field. “He’s not upset. He’s just at that point now where he doesn’t know exactly what he wants to do.

“We all have a different lens (for) how we view the world. I know when I went through my Kurt Vonnegut stage, I was kind of screwed up when I was 21.”

However, La Stella is 27. He should know better. He is a  role player on a good team that has more good players than roster spots.  LaStella may be upset that he may not get on the playoff roster if he is viewed as "inventory" by the demotion.

“I think ‘disappointed’ would be the wrong word,” Hoyer said. “Given how much we’ve talked to him, trying to understand where he’s coming from, empathize with him and give him the space.”

Commentators have started to opine on what LaStella is doing to the Cubs. Did he quit on his teammates? Does refusing to go to Iowa hurt the major league team? Is he selfish? He only wants to play in the big leagues? Was he unprofessional? In the modern pampered athlete world is that even possible?  If he reports to Iowa and badmouths his treatment by the Cubs, will that have a negative impact on organizational players?

Why does LaStella think he is more important than the organization making any move necessary to win a championship? The answer is no.

The White Sox have shown the sports world that baseball employees go off the handle at management without any responsibility or harsh accountability. In a normal business, someone who does not show up for work gets fired for cause. But athletes seem to be immune from the realities of the real employment world.

If LaStella does not want to play, cut him.

The Cubs are doing fine without him.

NOT "HIS" GUYS

This post was written prior to the Cubs trade.

Many believe that Theo Epstein "loves" his prospects to the point where he cannot part with them. It is a common problem some general managers have in drafting and developing players. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry was famous for hanging on to his prospects to the point where they had no trade value (or were poor major league players). In a trade market, you try to exchange gold for silver; veterans for quality prospects.

So when Theo took over the Cubs, he had no loyalty to Hendry-era players. Here are some notable players from the Hendry days:

Notable Drafted players:

2003 – Jake Fox, Sean Marshall, Casey Mcgehee, Sam Fuld (unsigned) 

2004 – Fuld, Sean Gallagher


2006 – Tyler Colvin, Jeff Samardjiza, Steve Clevenger


2007 – Josh Donaldson, Darwin Barney, Brandon Guyer, Josh Vitters 

2008 – Andrew Cashner, Ryan Flaherty, Josh Harrison, Jeff Beliveau, and an unsigned Sonny Gray

2009 – Brett Jackson, DJ LeMahieu, Chris Rusin, Wes Darvill, Brooks Raley, Justin Bour, Trey McNutt, and an unsigned Colin Kaepernick (SF QB)


2010 – Matt Szczur, Erick Jokisch, Elliot Soto, Dustin Geiger, Dallas Beeler

2011 – Javy Baez, Dan Vogelbach, Tayler Scott, Shawon Dunston, Jr., Daniel Lockhart, Trey Martin, Dillon Maples, John Andreoli, James Pugliese, Andrew McKirahan, Michael Jensen, PJ Francescon.

Notable International signings:

2010_ OF Rubi Silva (Cuba), SS Carlos Penalver (Venezuela), 3B Jeimer Candelario (Dominican Republic),  OF Jeffrey Baez, C Alberto Mineo
 (Italy),  RHP Daury Torrez (Dominican Republic)


2009- C Willson Contreras (Venezuela), Pin-Chieh Chen (Taiwan), RHP Felix Pena


2008 – INF Hak-Ju Lee (South Korea),  RHP, INF Arismendy Alcantara (Dominican Republic), Frank Batista RHP, Dominican Republic 

2007 – OF Kosuke Fukudome (Japan), IF Junior Lake (Dominican Republic)

2006 – SS Starlin Castro (Dominican Republic)


2005 – RHP Alberto Cabrera (Dominican Republic)


2004 – RHP Rafael Dolis (Dominican Republic), C Welington Castillo (Dominican Republic).

As you can tell, many of the Hendry signings did make it to the major leagues. Several have been used by Theo as trade chips to acquire other players. In 4.5 years, Theo has turned over most the organizational roster.

So if you are trying to predict which current Cubs prospects or players could be used in a trade deadline trade, look at who is left in the Cubs organization from the Hendry era:

Contreras #2 prospect, Candelario #8 prospect, and Vogelbach #20 prospect.

Contreras and Candelario have both played with the Cubs major league team this season. Vogelbach has gotten some of his power back in AAA Iowa.

Since the Cubs will not trade Kyle Schwarber, who some project to be worth more than 21 WAR in his rookie control period, for a relief pitcher, that means it is really down to Candelario and Vogelbach to make a trade. For a top line reliever like Andrew Miller, this probably will not get it done. For a rental player like A. Chapman, maybe, but there will be other suitors. 

Addendum:
 
The Cubs acquired left handed swingman Mike Montgomery and minor leaguer Jordan Pries from Seattle in exchange for 1B/DH Dan Vogelbach and minor league starter Paul Blackburn. With Montgomery, the Cubs get a power pitcher from the left side that holds lefties to a .146 BA. He also has the ability to spot start.

Like discussed above, the Cubs parted with Vogelbach, a player who would blocked by Rizzo and Schwarber on the major league roster. Vogelbach was rumored to have been in the Yankee discussions for Andrew Miller, but the Yanks wanted Schwarber.

Of note, Theo and Hoyer did part with one of their "guys," a 2012 draft pick in Blackburn. Blackburn, 22, is 6-4 in AA with a 3.17 ERA. In Pries, the Cubs get a 26 year old AAA reliever who was promoted from AA as a marginal starter.

GREAT MOVES

Dave Dombrowski has always been regarded as a good GM.

But in a few days, he has baffled the baseball world.



He acquired All-Star starting pitcher Drew Pomeranz from the Padres
in exchange for an 18-year-old pitching prospect. Straight up.



Then he acquired Diamondbacks closer Zeigler, who owns the team
 record of 43 consecutive saves, for two low level prospects.



So, the Red Sox acquired an All-Star starter and proven closer 
for basically nothing.



Wow.



Other GMs question how Dombrowski got away with such a haul
for nothing. But then again, he got the deal done with suspect
 GM Dave Stewart in Arizona (remember, he overpaid for Shelby Miller
 who is now in AAA), and a friendship with President Tony LaRussa,  and then dealt the hapless, rutterless Padres.



A few teams grumbled that they offered more for Zeigler than what
the Red Sox gave up . . . . 



But would not the Cubs or Cardinals or any other team have taken both Pomeranz and
Zeigler for three Class A prospects?!!


Of course they would.


But for some reason, only Dombrowski got the deals done.

Quickly. Early. Cheaply.


There have been many writers now thinking that Theo may be too enamored with his own prospects
to trade them for bullpen help. If prospects are the true assets in today's trade market, you have
to part with value in order to get back value.


Except if you are Dombrowski.

EXTENDING THEORIES

Hanley and Haugh were on this morning's sports talk discussing the question of Theo Epstein's contract extension which continues to be going no where.

They indicated that writer Jon Heyman speculates that since Andrew Friedman got $7 million plus bonuses from the Dodgers, Epstein is worth $10 to $12 million. If true, the question is whether any baseball executive is worth that kind of money.

Hanley and Haugh opined that since the Cubs "are printing" money with all the new construction and revenue sources inside and outside of Wrigley, making Epstein the highest paid executive is basically a no brainer.

But their premise is incorrect. The Cubs are not building the new plaza building or McDonald's block commercial spaces. Those real estate development projects are owned and controlled by different Ricketts family business entities. The Cubs are basically only a tenant in Wrigley Field (also owned by a different legal entity). The Cubs main revenue sources are ticket sales, concessions and broadcast revenues. The rest of the revenue generating business ventures goes directly to the Ricketts family.

Then, Haugh confirmed that Ricketts told him last year the most "undervalued" person in the Cubs organization was Crane Kenney. Kenney is in charge of the "business" side of the Cubs. He is the one who sets the baseball budget, not Epstein. Haugh said that Kenney recently got his contract extension from Ricketts.

Which gets back to earlier posts on this blog.

The Ricketts have used broad brush strokes of the Cubs and the team's continued success relying upon new revenue sources from outside the park real estate and business ventures. But those ventures are separate and legally distinct from the Cubs baseball team.

Epstein has said that he has had to get create and pull teeth in order to make last off-season's moves to sign Ben Zobrist, Jason Heyward and John Lackey. The business side of the organization has put the brakes on what Epstein really wants to do with the Cubs. Since day one, there has been this conflict.

At least the radio hosts recognize that Epstein may be fed up with the office politics and penny pinching budgeting of Kenney so Epstein does not sign a contract extension with the Cubs.

Then what happens?

Ricketts and Kenney could still claim their leadership and business skills were part and parcel to the success of the Cubs. They are the ones who approved all the major moves Epstein made during his tenure. It seems like the Red Sox situation all over again, when Epstein was tossed aside due to upper management and ownership wanted the spotlight on them for the championships.

It comes down to these theories:

1. Epstein will only sign an extension if he gets FULL control of all Cubs operations, including business side and budget.
2. Epstein does not want to sign an extension so he can get a better deal as a "free agent," which in my mind could include an equity stake in a franchise.
3. Ricketts does not want to pay $60 million for a President of baseball operations when there are costly overruns on his dream real estate projects.
4. Ricketts and/or Kenney may believe that since the minor league foundation of success is in place, they don't need Epstein or Hoyer to lead the franchise in the future. They can find someone else to be the General Manager under their control.
5. At the last minute, both sides will come to a compromise agreement.

However, if Epstein really wants to stay, and Ricketts really wants Epstein to stay, a contract extension should have been worked out a year ago.

ARRIETA'S DEAL

The Cubs avoided an arbitration hearing with Jake Arrieta.

AP reported that the sides agreed to a $10.7 million salary for the 2016 season. That marks the highest salary on a one-year deal for a pitcher with four years of service, the AP notes. Arrieta and the Cubs were set to go before an independent arbitrator but now can simply focus on the season ahead.

Arrieta, 29, is in his second of three years of arbitration eligibility. He had filed for $13 million while the Cubs countered at $7.5 million. The $5.5 million gap was the largest among players who did not come to terms with their respective teams by the January deadline. The $10.7 million salary is $450,000 above the midpoint between the two submitted figures.

Theo Epstein has prided himself on the fact that he does not take his players to hearings. They settle.

Players often come out of contested arbitration hearings with negative attitudes towards their clubs because general managers have to present a "negative" case against them. However, having a team policy of "no hearings" does give the player's agent more leverage on a settlement deal.

The $10.7 million settlement is the highest arb deal, beating out David Price's $10.1 million.

Arrieta is being paid for an excellent 2015 campaign. He now becomes the ace of the staff. Whether he can stay healthy after a record number of innings pitched is going to be the key to the 2015 campaign. He threw 45 percent more innings in 2015 than in 2014.

Many people have thought that the Cubs now should try to lock up Arrieta on a long term deal. However, players will not give up the chance to test the free agent market. He becomes a free agent in 2018, so the Cubs have two more years of service time with him. The Cubs would rather use the limited budget resources to fill the roster gaps than pay Arrieta on a long term deal. 

Clearly, the championship window has opened for the Cubs. It has a realistic two year window because that is how long they will control Arrieta.