Did the Cardinals overpay to sign Dexter Fowler?
St. Louis signed the Cubs World Series centerfielder for $82.5 million/5 year contract.
Fowler, 30, was a valuable lead off hitter for the Cubs. And once the team figured out that he was playing too shallow in center, Fowler's defensive metrics improved dramatically. He went from a 2.2 WAR to a 4.2 WAR in 2016.
But one could temper his improvement as being Wrigley Field bias. Fowler's career WAR is only 18.1 over 9 seasons. 35.6 percent of his career WAR is attributed to just the past two seasons.
Many fans do not care what teams spend on players because it is not their money. But that is a narrow view. Teams have tighter baseball budgets. League revenue may be great but it is suspect with the sudden decline in cable television ratings and advertising shifting to other platforms. If your team overpays for a player, it cuts down the available budget to sign other key players to make a contending team. Also, it forces the team to find more revenue, usually from the fans. Example, the Cubs raising ticket prices for 2017 by an average of 19.1 percent.
So how did the Cardinals value Fowler?
First, as a subtraction from the divisional winner, Cubs. Just as the Cubs took away Jason Heyward and John Lackey from the Cardinal roster, the Cards pull a piece from the Cubs roster to make it weaker (on paper).
Second, the Cardinals need a steady, experienced lead off hitter. Traditional lead off hitters (high OBP, speed) are harder to find. Fowler is not quite traditional, but makes up for it with more power than an normal lead off hitter.
Third, $82.5 million deal equals approximately 14.0 WAR. Over the life of the contract, Fowler would have to average 2.8 WAR per season to hit the $82.5 million value. In his eight full seasons, he has only hit that mark twice in his career or 25% of the time. If you take his last 8 seasons of WAR (18.4) you have 2.3 WAR/season. The premium appears to be 0.5 WAR/season or about $14.75 million or almost an entire season of potential dead money.
In baseball free agent contracts, some players are willing to discount an annual salary to get more guaranteed years. This is especially true in late career two-three year deals. But in Fowler's case, this is his last peak contract. He did not discount his current performance for a future guarantee. With Adam Eaton traded to the Nationals, there were few proven center fielders left on the market. Fowler leveraged the shortage to his advantage.
Fourth, Fowler does bring a level of intangibles to a team. He was well liked in the Cub locker room. He has a friendly smile and is a fan favorite. In St. Louis, some media writers opine that his presence will help solidify the community. But just by signing Fowler is not going to turn that 17.5 game deficit from the Cubs 2016 mark to zero. But Fowler is an upgrade in CF from their existing player roster so one cannot clearly say that the Cardinals overpaid for Fowler.
Showing posts with label Fowler. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Fowler. Show all posts
December 12, 2016
May 4, 2016
BIG DIVDENDS
In the past Chicago teams were too loyal to their veterans past their prime.
With John Danks release, it shows that the mission is simple: win every game.
And the White Sox and Cubs have been doing it like Industrial Revolution Machines.
The pitching staffs have not allowed losing streaks:
Arrieta: 6-0, 0.84 ERA, 0.744 WHIP, 2.1 WAR
Lester: 2-1, 1.83 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
Hammel:4-0, 1.24 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
Sale: 6-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Quintana: 4-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
Latos: 4-0, 1.84 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
That is incredible starting pitching. Sale and Quintana are the best 1-2 combo in major league baseball.
But that is not all. Two under the radar changes have improved the clubs defense.
The White Sox signed Austin Jackson to play CF because Adam Eaton was a horrible fielder. But by Eaton to RF, it has improved the White Sox defense dramatically. Eaton was a negative CF but now he has a plus 75 defense runs saved/year ratio. His dWAR has gone from -1.1 in 2015 to 1.4 WAR in 2016.
The Cubs made a small adjustment on positioning their center fielder. By moving Dexer Fowler deeper in the outfield, it has made a clear improvement in his defense, too. He now has a 0.2 dWAR compared to a negative 1.0 WAR from 2015. He has gone from a -10 to a +12 in defense runs saved/year.
The little adjustments are paying huge dividends.
The White Sox are 19-8, 4 games ahead of the Tigers.
The Cubs are 19-6, 5 games ahead of the Pirates and 7 games ahead of the Cardinals.
The Cubs also have a crazy run differential of +89, more than double the next highest team.
Baseball is going to be fun this summer in Chicago.
With John Danks release, it shows that the mission is simple: win every game.
And the White Sox and Cubs have been doing it like Industrial Revolution Machines.
The pitching staffs have not allowed losing streaks:
Arrieta: 6-0, 0.84 ERA, 0.744 WHIP, 2.1 WAR
Lester: 2-1, 1.83 ERA, 0.932 WHIP, 1.0 WAR
Hammel:4-0, 1.24 ERA, 1.069 WHIP, 1.2 WAR
Sale: 6-0, 1.66 ERA, 0.808 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
Quintana: 4-1, 1.40 ERA, 0.983 WHIP, 1.6 WAR
Latos: 4-0, 1.84 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
That is incredible starting pitching. Sale and Quintana are the best 1-2 combo in major league baseball.
But that is not all. Two under the radar changes have improved the clubs defense.
The White Sox signed Austin Jackson to play CF because Adam Eaton was a horrible fielder. But by Eaton to RF, it has improved the White Sox defense dramatically. Eaton was a negative CF but now he has a plus 75 defense runs saved/year ratio. His dWAR has gone from -1.1 in 2015 to 1.4 WAR in 2016.
The Cubs made a small adjustment on positioning their center fielder. By moving Dexer Fowler deeper in the outfield, it has made a clear improvement in his defense, too. He now has a 0.2 dWAR compared to a negative 1.0 WAR from 2015. He has gone from a -10 to a +12 in defense runs saved/year.
The little adjustments are paying huge dividends.
The White Sox are 19-8, 4 games ahead of the Tigers.
The Cubs are 19-6, 5 games ahead of the Pirates and 7 games ahead of the Cardinals.
The Cubs also have a crazy run differential of +89, more than double the next highest team.
Baseball is going to be fun this summer in Chicago.
April 8, 2016
IT WAS BOUND TO HAPPEN
It was a predictable outcome. It was one of those slow developing disaster films . . . you know something bad is going to happen soon.
When Kyle Schwarber was placed in LF it was done to keep highly paid Miguel Montero behind the plate. It was to get Schwarber's power into the lineup on a regular basis. Joe Maddon is not afraid of playing players out of their natural positions. Schwarber was drafted as a catcher. He wants to be a pro catcher. He is working hard to catch major league pitchers. His deficiencies have been magnified because of early scouting reports. But he is a team player, so he goes to LF to learn a new position literally on the fly.
Dexter Fowler is a minus- CF defender. He does not have a strong arm and he does not cover very much ground in the gaps. But he is a switch hitting lead off man with some pop. He can get on base and score a lot of runs. Fowler's re-signing with the Cubs helped balance out the top of the lineup.
In order to get more pop in the lineup, the Cubs have to play lesser defenders in the field.
Last night in Arizona, this philosophy crashed with reality.
Cubs broadcaster Pat Hughes was deeply concerned when an ambulance cart drove Schwarber off Chase Field on Thursday night after he collided with Fowler after giving chase to a long fly ball in the gap (which turned into an inside-the-park HR). Schwarber laid face down on the ground until the trainers reached him. It looked very serious.
After the game, Schwarber, on crutches, talked to the media. “The ball was literally in no man’s land. We both thought that (the other guy) wasn’t going to get the ball. So you only call it if you know you can get it. We both went at it, and I stuck my glove up. I was pretty close. But then he dove for it, too.
“We were playing hard. I have no regrets about playing hard and getting hurt,” he said.
Initial reports indicate that Schwarber has tightness in his knee and ankle. Trainers were looking at the knee and testing for a strained ACL. X-rays showed no broken bones. An MRI is scheduled for today. The real concern is any knee damage. If so, then that puts Schwarber out of his scheduled catching rotation and lessens his overall playing time. But it appears that Schwarber could be sidelined for at least two weeks.
The injury clouds a 14-6 Cubs comeback win over the Diamondbacks. New starter John Lackey gave up 6 runs in the first 3 innings, but hung around for the win because of Anthony Rizzo's huge night, 3 for 4 with 6 RBIs.
For every player's down time, it is an opportunity for another player. When Schwarber left the game, Maddon inserted Kris Bryant in LF and moved in Tommy La Stella at third base. It seemed that the lesson was lost on Maddon in the moment as he moved Bryant out of his natural position to play LF instead of inserting hot hitting Matt Szczur or platoon Jorge Soler. La Stella was hitless in three plate appearances.
There is no word when Javy Baez is set to return from his dumb head first slide into first base thunb injury. I suspect he will be activated if Schwarber heads to the DL.
Maddon likes moveable pieces on his roster so he can zig and zag his lineups to get match ups he finds favorable. In one respect, it keeps the entire team in the mindset to be ready to play every day. But in another, it upsets a normal player's habit and routine of playing one position and batting consistently in the same place in the lineup. But moving a catcher to play LF in a park with a very large outfield seems to be counterproductive.
UPDATE:
It was the worst possible news: Schwarber tore both his ACL and LCL with a severe high ankle sprain. He is out for the season. There is no time table for his return. He will have to have reconstructive surgery and a long rehab period. There is no guarantee that he will be ready for spring training in 2017.
The injury was described as a "severe football-type" injury. How a badly damaged knee affects a major league catcher is something new for Schwarber and the Cubs. If Schwarber cannot return to being a catcher, that cuts in half his value to the Cubs (or any potential trade partner who would look at a catcher with 30 HR potential a major asset.)
When Kyle Schwarber was placed in LF it was done to keep highly paid Miguel Montero behind the plate. It was to get Schwarber's power into the lineup on a regular basis. Joe Maddon is not afraid of playing players out of their natural positions. Schwarber was drafted as a catcher. He wants to be a pro catcher. He is working hard to catch major league pitchers. His deficiencies have been magnified because of early scouting reports. But he is a team player, so he goes to LF to learn a new position literally on the fly.
Dexter Fowler is a minus- CF defender. He does not have a strong arm and he does not cover very much ground in the gaps. But he is a switch hitting lead off man with some pop. He can get on base and score a lot of runs. Fowler's re-signing with the Cubs helped balance out the top of the lineup.
In order to get more pop in the lineup, the Cubs have to play lesser defenders in the field.
Last night in Arizona, this philosophy crashed with reality.
Cubs broadcaster Pat Hughes was deeply concerned when an ambulance cart drove Schwarber off Chase Field on Thursday night after he collided with Fowler after giving chase to a long fly ball in the gap (which turned into an inside-the-park HR). Schwarber laid face down on the ground until the trainers reached him. It looked very serious.
After the game, Schwarber, on crutches, talked to the media. “The ball was literally in no man’s land. We both thought that (the other guy) wasn’t going to get the ball. So you only call it if you know you can get it. We both went at it, and I stuck my glove up. I was pretty close. But then he dove for it, too.
“We were playing hard. I have no regrets about playing hard and getting hurt,” he said.
Initial reports indicate that Schwarber has tightness in his knee and ankle. Trainers were looking at the knee and testing for a strained ACL. X-rays showed no broken bones. An MRI is scheduled for today. The real concern is any knee damage. If so, then that puts Schwarber out of his scheduled catching rotation and lessens his overall playing time. But it appears that Schwarber could be sidelined for at least two weeks.
The injury clouds a 14-6 Cubs comeback win over the Diamondbacks. New starter John Lackey gave up 6 runs in the first 3 innings, but hung around for the win because of Anthony Rizzo's huge night, 3 for 4 with 6 RBIs.
For every player's down time, it is an opportunity for another player. When Schwarber left the game, Maddon inserted Kris Bryant in LF and moved in Tommy La Stella at third base. It seemed that the lesson was lost on Maddon in the moment as he moved Bryant out of his natural position to play LF instead of inserting hot hitting Matt Szczur or platoon Jorge Soler. La Stella was hitless in three plate appearances.
There is no word when Javy Baez is set to return from his dumb head first slide into first base thunb injury. I suspect he will be activated if Schwarber heads to the DL.
Maddon likes moveable pieces on his roster so he can zig and zag his lineups to get match ups he finds favorable. In one respect, it keeps the entire team in the mindset to be ready to play every day. But in another, it upsets a normal player's habit and routine of playing one position and batting consistently in the same place in the lineup. But moving a catcher to play LF in a park with a very large outfield seems to be counterproductive.
UPDATE:
It was the worst possible news: Schwarber tore both his ACL and LCL with a severe high ankle sprain. He is out for the season. There is no time table for his return. He will have to have reconstructive surgery and a long rehab period. There is no guarantee that he will be ready for spring training in 2017.
The injury was described as a "severe football-type" injury. How a badly damaged knee affects a major league catcher is something new for Schwarber and the Cubs. If Schwarber cannot return to being a catcher, that cuts in half his value to the Cubs (or any potential trade partner who would look at a catcher with 30 HR potential a major asset.)
March 4, 2016
BAEZ IN CENTER
Championship caliber teams pitch well and play above average to great defense. Most pitchers will tell you a solid defense behind them clips off a half a run off their ERA.
The modern game has de-emphasized defense because it is hard to statistically quantify defense metrics. Instead, the trend is to mirror the video game world of big bats and big power pitchers. And playing players in multiple positions so a manager has line-up flexibility (and a shorter bench since the bullpens have been growing in number and prominence.)
Javy Baez made his spring debut in center field. It was an odd choice considering the Cubs just signed Dexter Fowler to be the regular CF with Justin Heyward as the back-up from his RF position.
ESPNChicago noted Baez's CF debut was less than stellar:
Baez was tested immediately in center field where he's trying to learn a new position. The first three Milwaukee hitters hit the ball to him starting with Jonathan Villar's triple off the wall. Baez got turned around several times and should have played it off the wall to keep Villar to a double. Then he threw offline on a sacrifice fly before taking a bad route on the next fly ball which popped in and out of his glove.
"I haven't missed one ball all spring training," Baez said afterwards. "Good thing it happens now and not later."
Baez statement is true in one extent: it is better to get the butterflies and fielding issues worked on during spring training. But putting even an athletic player into CF cold is very difficult. Jimmy Piersall said that playing CF is the hardest outfield position because you cannot see the angle of the ball immediately off the bat. In the corner outfields, you can quickly gauge the depth and angle of the hit ball. But in center, your perception is straight on. That is why good fielder will know what the pitcher is going to throw and shade himself toward the potential contact field. In addition to tracking the balls, a center fielder has to cover more ground. Speed and arm accuracy are critical tools for a center fielder who needs to anticipate the hitter and runners and where to hit the cut-off man.
Baez has no game experience playing CF. It will be a baptism by trial and error. But it may be a case of diminishing returns. He is slated to be the super-sub infielder for Joe Maddon since he can already play SS, 2B and 3B. But since the Cubs are probably only going to carry 4 outfielders and have a short bench, Maddon would like Baez to be that 5th OF.
If Maddon rests his infielders on a weekly basis, Baez could play 3 times a week or approximately 72 games this season. He would probably get around 300 ABs as an infield starter. He could be a defensive replacement or double switch candidate off the bench. He could also be a pinch hitter. So he will probably get at least 400 AB during the season as a utility player without having to play the outfield.
It comes down to this: Matt Szczur is out of options. He can play plus defense in the outfield. He is a better OF defender than Baez. But with four "starters" already penciled in the outfield, Szczur won't play very much. And Baez can be the right handed pinch hitter off the bench. So defense will be sacrificed if Baez takes Szczur's 5th outfielder spot on the depth chart.
The modern game has de-emphasized defense because it is hard to statistically quantify defense metrics. Instead, the trend is to mirror the video game world of big bats and big power pitchers. And playing players in multiple positions so a manager has line-up flexibility (and a shorter bench since the bullpens have been growing in number and prominence.)
Javy Baez made his spring debut in center field. It was an odd choice considering the Cubs just signed Dexter Fowler to be the regular CF with Justin Heyward as the back-up from his RF position.
ESPNChicago noted Baez's CF debut was less than stellar:
Baez was tested immediately in center field where he's trying to learn a new position. The first three Milwaukee hitters hit the ball to him starting with Jonathan Villar's triple off the wall. Baez got turned around several times and should have played it off the wall to keep Villar to a double. Then he threw offline on a sacrifice fly before taking a bad route on the next fly ball which popped in and out of his glove.
"I haven't missed one ball all spring training," Baez said afterwards. "Good thing it happens now and not later."
Baez statement is true in one extent: it is better to get the butterflies and fielding issues worked on during spring training. But putting even an athletic player into CF cold is very difficult. Jimmy Piersall said that playing CF is the hardest outfield position because you cannot see the angle of the ball immediately off the bat. In the corner outfields, you can quickly gauge the depth and angle of the hit ball. But in center, your perception is straight on. That is why good fielder will know what the pitcher is going to throw and shade himself toward the potential contact field. In addition to tracking the balls, a center fielder has to cover more ground. Speed and arm accuracy are critical tools for a center fielder who needs to anticipate the hitter and runners and where to hit the cut-off man.
Baez has no game experience playing CF. It will be a baptism by trial and error. But it may be a case of diminishing returns. He is slated to be the super-sub infielder for Joe Maddon since he can already play SS, 2B and 3B. But since the Cubs are probably only going to carry 4 outfielders and have a short bench, Maddon would like Baez to be that 5th OF.
If Maddon rests his infielders on a weekly basis, Baez could play 3 times a week or approximately 72 games this season. He would probably get around 300 ABs as an infield starter. He could be a defensive replacement or double switch candidate off the bench. He could also be a pinch hitter. So he will probably get at least 400 AB during the season as a utility player without having to play the outfield.
It comes down to this: Matt Szczur is out of options. He can play plus defense in the outfield. He is a better OF defender than Baez. But with four "starters" already penciled in the outfield, Szczur won't play very much. And Baez can be the right handed pinch hitter off the bench. So defense will be sacrificed if Baez takes Szczur's 5th outfielder spot on the depth chart.
February 26, 2016
SURPRISING TWIST
Everyone reported last Tuesday that Dexter Fowler had agreed to a three year, $35 million deal with the Orioles.
So it was quite strange to have the Cubs announce two days later that Fowler had re-signed with Chicago.
For a lot less money.
Fowler denies that he had a verbal agreement with the Orioles for 3 years/$35 million.
ESPN reports the one-year deal with the Cubs, which came together late Wednesday when Fowler drove down from Las Vegas to take his physical, is for $8 million. It also includes a $9 million mutual option for 2017, which the Cubs can buy out for $5 million.
Cubs president Theo Epstein and agent Casey Close stayed in touch throughout the off-season after Fowler turned down the Cubs' one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer. But Fowler said another deal to his liking never came about with another team.
Now Baltimore is notorious for being quite picky over player physicals. Yovani Gallardo just restructured his free agent deal with Baltimore because the team allegedly "failed" his physical. Some think the O's are extremely cautious on free agent deals. Others think it is a staged ploy to renegotiate with a player.
But at the end of free agency market with the start of spring training, rosters are pretty much set. Fowler had been the odd man out in the outfield free agent version of musical chairs. In Baltimore, he would have been slated as their left fielder. With the Cubs, he is back to last year's position, CF.
The signing works for the Cubs at many levels. First, it moves Jason Heyward back to where he wants to play: RF. A happy Heyward is a productive Heyward which is what the Cubs need this season. Second, it solves the lead-off problem. Fowler will return to the spot where he scored 102 runs. Third, even though Heyward could play CF better than Fowler, Heyward is much better RF than Soler by miles. Fowler and Heyward in the outfield is an upgrade over Heyward and Soler. Fourth, it moves Soler to LF in a probable platoon with Schwarber.
In order "to make it work," Epstein had to trade Chris Coghlan to Oakland for a bad pitcher, Aaron Brooks, who had a 6.71 ERA in 9 starts last season. This trade was clearly a salary dump of $4.8 million.
This gives Fowler another year with a contender to boost his free agent status after 2016. He has the incentive to match or improve on his 2015 campaign.
So it was quite strange to have the Cubs announce two days later that Fowler had re-signed with Chicago.
For a lot less money.
Fowler denies that he had a verbal agreement with the Orioles for 3 years/$35 million.
ESPN reports the one-year deal with the Cubs, which came together late Wednesday when Fowler drove down from Las Vegas to take his physical, is for $8 million. It also includes a $9 million mutual option for 2017, which the Cubs can buy out for $5 million.
Cubs president Theo Epstein and agent Casey Close stayed in touch throughout the off-season after Fowler turned down the Cubs' one-year, $15.8 million qualifying offer. But Fowler said another deal to his liking never came about with another team.
Now Baltimore is notorious for being quite picky over player physicals. Yovani Gallardo just restructured his free agent deal with Baltimore because the team allegedly "failed" his physical. Some think the O's are extremely cautious on free agent deals. Others think it is a staged ploy to renegotiate with a player.
But at the end of free agency market with the start of spring training, rosters are pretty much set. Fowler had been the odd man out in the outfield free agent version of musical chairs. In Baltimore, he would have been slated as their left fielder. With the Cubs, he is back to last year's position, CF.
The signing works for the Cubs at many levels. First, it moves Jason Heyward back to where he wants to play: RF. A happy Heyward is a productive Heyward which is what the Cubs need this season. Second, it solves the lead-off problem. Fowler will return to the spot where he scored 102 runs. Third, even though Heyward could play CF better than Fowler, Heyward is much better RF than Soler by miles. Fowler and Heyward in the outfield is an upgrade over Heyward and Soler. Fourth, it moves Soler to LF in a probable platoon with Schwarber.
In order "to make it work," Epstein had to trade Chris Coghlan to Oakland for a bad pitcher, Aaron Brooks, who had a 6.71 ERA in 9 starts last season. This trade was clearly a salary dump of $4.8 million.
This gives Fowler another year with a contender to boost his free agent status after 2016. He has the incentive to match or improve on his 2015 campaign.
February 6, 2016
THE PROBLEM
Adam Eaton was the White Sox starting center fielder. For most White Sox fans, Eaton has been a terrible liability since the Sox acquired him from Arizona.
He is a Jekyll and Hyde player. His stats look good on the surface, but fans of daily games saw Eaton running into outs, playing bad defense, missing cut-offs and showing a low situational baseball IQ.
Eaton hit .287, 14 HR, 56 RBI with a 3.9 WAR. That looks pretty good for a lead off hitter.
But that WAR includes a negative 1.1 dWAR.
Clearly, the White Sox are looking to upgrade their outfield and defense talent.
That is why Dexter Fowler has been mentioned as a possible free agent signing.
But Fowler poses two problems. One, it takes Eaton, 27, to the bench. He won't be happy about that.
Two, Fowler signing would cost the White Sox the No. 28 pick in the June draft. The Sox No. 10 pick is protected so this is the Samardzija compensation selection.
The White Sox have enough young pitching in the pipeline to really go after the two best available college hitters in the draft and push them along to the majors like the Cubs did with Bryant and Schwarber. The No. 28 pick may have more value than Fowler's asking price for a long term deal.
He is a Jekyll and Hyde player. His stats look good on the surface, but fans of daily games saw Eaton running into outs, playing bad defense, missing cut-offs and showing a low situational baseball IQ.
Eaton hit .287, 14 HR, 56 RBI with a 3.9 WAR. That looks pretty good for a lead off hitter.
But that WAR includes a negative 1.1 dWAR.
Clearly, the White Sox are looking to upgrade their outfield and defense talent.
That is why Dexter Fowler has been mentioned as a possible free agent signing.
But Fowler poses two problems. One, it takes Eaton, 27, to the bench. He won't be happy about that.
Two, Fowler signing would cost the White Sox the No. 28 pick in the June draft. The Sox No. 10 pick is protected so this is the Samardzija compensation selection.
The White Sox have enough young pitching in the pipeline to really go after the two best available college hitters in the draft and push them along to the majors like the Cubs did with Bryant and Schwarber. The No. 28 pick may have more value than Fowler's asking price for a long term deal.
January 28, 2016
FOWLER
Dexter Fowler was a competent center fielder for the 2015 Cubs.
Fowler, 29, hit .250, 17 HR, 46 RBI, 20 SB, 2.2 WAR. He made $9.5 million in 2015. He turned down a qualifying offer of $15.3 million. So any team besides the Cubs who sign him have to give up a first round draft pick as compensation.
Currently, two teams have been rumored to have interest in Fowler: the Cubs and White Sox. That would seem redundant since the Sox have Adam Eaton in center, and the Cubs stated that Jason Heyward would play center in 2016.
There is also a question of compensation. Fowler thinks he is worth more than the $15.3 million one year offer. He is at the point of getting one good long term deal in his back pocket. But last year's WAR by some accounts put his value more at $12.5 million than $15 million. The Cubs made that offer because the team had not vaulted into the free agent market.
Teams do want to keep their high draft picks because those players can be cheaply controlled for six years. Prime example, Kris Bryant.
Is Fowler worth losing a chance at the next Kris Bryant? That is what keeps GMs up at night.
But if the Cubs re-sign Fowler to play center, it moves Heyward back to his natural position of right field. That makes the Cubs collective outfield defense better than a Schwarber-Heyward-Soler triad.
It would also put Soler on the bench or part of a major trade package (with prospects like Vogelbach, Villaneuva or Szczur) for more starting pitching.
Fowler is a nice player but not worth a 4 year/$65 million contract.
Fowler, 29, hit .250, 17 HR, 46 RBI, 20 SB, 2.2 WAR. He made $9.5 million in 2015. He turned down a qualifying offer of $15.3 million. So any team besides the Cubs who sign him have to give up a first round draft pick as compensation.
Currently, two teams have been rumored to have interest in Fowler: the Cubs and White Sox. That would seem redundant since the Sox have Adam Eaton in center, and the Cubs stated that Jason Heyward would play center in 2016.
There is also a question of compensation. Fowler thinks he is worth more than the $15.3 million one year offer. He is at the point of getting one good long term deal in his back pocket. But last year's WAR by some accounts put his value more at $12.5 million than $15 million. The Cubs made that offer because the team had not vaulted into the free agent market.
Teams do want to keep their high draft picks because those players can be cheaply controlled for six years. Prime example, Kris Bryant.
Is Fowler worth losing a chance at the next Kris Bryant? That is what keeps GMs up at night.
But if the Cubs re-sign Fowler to play center, it moves Heyward back to his natural position of right field. That makes the Cubs collective outfield defense better than a Schwarber-Heyward-Soler triad.
It would also put Soler on the bench or part of a major trade package (with prospects like Vogelbach, Villaneuva or Szczur) for more starting pitching.
Fowler is a nice player but not worth a 4 year/$65 million contract.
January 20, 2015
A WEAK DEAL
The Cubs traded 3B Luis Valbuena and SP Dan Straily to Houston for CF Dexter Fowler.
Fowler, 28, is in his last arb contract year (he is asking $10.5 million compared to an $8.5 million Houston counter). Valbuena hit .249, 15 HR, 51 RBI for the Cubs in 2014. Fowler hit .276 BA, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 11 SB, .375 OBP. The WAR numbers are about the same: Fowler 1.8, Valbuena 1.6.
Fowler is a bad outfielder. He had a negative 1.8 dWAR last season. He had a .983 fielding percentage. His career dWAR is negative 3.2.
The trade makes little sense. Fowler displaces Alcantara in CF (who has shown some power despite his small frame) and displaces Valbuena's power at third (until Bryant is called up). Yes, the Cubs have new potential power sources in Baez, Soler and Bryant to make up that difference (approx. 30 HR deficit).
Since Bryant is not going to be on the opening day roster, the Cubs will weaken their defense by playing someone else at third. Candidates including moving Baez to third (opening the second slot for LaStella and/or Alcantara) or giving the job back to Olt. Rumors have it that Alcantara is going to be the super-sub like Bonifacio was early last year.
Whether new manager Maddon can figure out a consistent line up card is doubtful. It looks like another mash-up of platoon type bench players.
Projected starters:
1. Fowler CF
2. Castro SS
3. Rizzo 1B
4. Soler RF
5. Baez/Olt 3B
6. Coghlan/Denorfia LF
7. Montero C
8. LaStella/Alcantara 2B
Fowler, 28, is in his last arb contract year (he is asking $10.5 million compared to an $8.5 million Houston counter). Valbuena hit .249, 15 HR, 51 RBI for the Cubs in 2014. Fowler hit .276 BA, 8 HR, 35 RBI, 11 SB, .375 OBP. The WAR numbers are about the same: Fowler 1.8, Valbuena 1.6.
Fowler is a bad outfielder. He had a negative 1.8 dWAR last season. He had a .983 fielding percentage. His career dWAR is negative 3.2.
The trade makes little sense. Fowler displaces Alcantara in CF (who has shown some power despite his small frame) and displaces Valbuena's power at third (until Bryant is called up). Yes, the Cubs have new potential power sources in Baez, Soler and Bryant to make up that difference (approx. 30 HR deficit).
Since Bryant is not going to be on the opening day roster, the Cubs will weaken their defense by playing someone else at third. Candidates including moving Baez to third (opening the second slot for LaStella and/or Alcantara) or giving the job back to Olt. Rumors have it that Alcantara is going to be the super-sub like Bonifacio was early last year.
Whether new manager Maddon can figure out a consistent line up card is doubtful. It looks like another mash-up of platoon type bench players.
Projected starters:
1. Fowler CF
2. Castro SS
3. Rizzo 1B
4. Soler RF
5. Baez/Olt 3B
6. Coghlan/Denorfia LF
7. Montero C
8. LaStella/Alcantara 2B
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