Well, let's see what the Cubs need for 2016.
It is a lot. More than most people realize.
It is actually easier to write down which players
should stay:
SP Lester
SP Arrieta
SP Hendricks
RP Rondon
RP Strop
RP Wood
LF Schwarber
RF Soler
3B Bryant
SS Russell
2B Castro
1B Rizzo
C Montero
C Ross
IF Baez
That means the Cubs need to improve 10 or 25 roster spots (40% turnover of the roster)
LaStella, Denorfia, Jackson, Berry and Coghlan are not long term answers to anything.
Almora, McKinney and Alcantara are not viable options in 2016.
Yes, there will be some injured or tired arms filling up the pen with possibly Ramirez, Edwards, Jokich and Medina, but those guys were non factors down the stretch. There are really no quality above replacement value pitchers in the minors.
Despite the surprising success in 2015, the Cubs cannot rest on past laurels. There is a great deal of work to do to repeat this season next year.
And there is no guarantee in repeating this year's success. Most teams that have been swept in a post season series do not get back to the playoffs the next year. The rate of return is anywhere from 4 to 15 years.
In addition, even championship teams like the 2005 White Sox, quickly fade away. The next year, the team finished third, the next fourth.
The Mets series did shine light on some serious flaws in the Cubs roster. There are many "hitters" that have been drafted by the Cubs. But most are playing out of position. A few, some say, are really DHs because of their defensive liabilities. Schwarber may not be a major league catcher in the minds of the front office, but he is also not a left fielder. Soler also has significant trouble picking up line drives and taking routes to catch balls in the gap. Bryant double clutches too much to be a consistent third baseman. A few could conclude that the players were "trying to make plays" instead of the game coming to them.
Granted, part of the problem was the pressure of big moment. Whether they can overcome the post season jitters is an open question. But the other problem is that many of the Cub position players are playing out of their natural position. Drafting athletes is one thing, but making them into super utility guys because you manager likes a lot of moving parts, is counterproductive.
The poor defense is a real problem when you don't have lock down pitchers.
And a slightly less concern is that the two main aces of the staff, Lester and Arrieta, did not have great post season games. Lester did not win one. Arrieta looked tired and fizzled at the end. No one believes that Arrieta's great second half is going to carry over for a full 2016 season. There will be some reversion to his baseball card stats. That will put more pressure on players playing outside their natural positions.
The front office cannot sit back on their laurels and bring back this same team. As the Mets have shown, the young Cub hitters cannot hit breaking secondary pitches with any consistency. Living and dying by the three run home run worked with Earl Weaver's Orioles, but he had three Cy Young caliber starters on his roster.
