There are 31 players highlighted on the payroll spreadsheet that are under team control for 2016.
Seven veterans have signed contracts worth $67.36 million.
17 players are at the major league minimum contract value, or approximately together $8.8 milllion.
3 players are in first year arbitration: Turner ($1 million), Rondon and Grimm. Rondon and Grimm will get well above the minimum so this class could be valued at $6 million.
1 player, Arrieta, is at second year arbitration. He made $3.7 million last season. He will have a major bump up to at least $9 million.
3 players are in final year of arbitration: Wood ($5.7 million), Strop ($2.5 million) and Coghlan ($2.5 million). Whether you pay to keep them or to replace them, this group is probably worth $14.5 million.
Payroll for these players is projected at $105.66 million. The 2015 payroll was $120.5 million, so based on past budgets, the front office does not have much money to spend on the 9 players to round out the 40 man roster. With a 10% increase in payroll budget, the 2016 Cubs have $132.55 million to spend or $26.89 million or only $2.98 million per free agent player.
This is why the thought of adding a $20 million ace starter like Price, Zimmerman or Greinke does not make the math work, leaving $6.89 million for 8 players is $861,000 per free agent player, which limits the crop to replacement player value journeymen or AAAA players.
The cast for the rotation: Lester, Arrieta, Hammel, Hendricks, Turner, Jokisch, Beeler.
The team has the same problem that plagued them in late September and the playoffs, the lack of quality #3, #4 and #5 starters.
The casting call the bullpen: Cahill, Wood, Rondon, Strop, Grimm, Medina, Ramirez, Edwards, Rosscup.
The team has the same problem that plagued them at the end of the year, inconsistent bridge relievers to the closer.
But pitching was only one part of the post season woes. The Cubs bats were silenced by the Mets because the young core has not been able to adjust to breaking balls. A veteran presence in the middle of the line up is critical. But the most urgent need is to have a true lead off man to take Fowler's place.
Under contract now, candidates to lead off include: Coghlan, Alcantara, Castro. None of them are very good choices. When someone trial balloons moving Bryant to CF to allow Baez to take third, everyone realizes what a terrible defensive arrangement in the outfield would be with Schwarber and Soler.
With sky high expectations and a long post season run, the business side of the Cubs will think that the 2016 season tickets will be flying off the shelf so there will be no good reason to go out and spend a lot of money on free agency. That may be a true assessment, since the energized fan base is enamored with the current young hitters to pay attention to the fine details of building a deep roster.
