This is a scary thought for some Cub fans: somebody has to go.
If the Mets series taught us anything is that the Cubs young team still has a lot of holes to fill.
One commentator said the Cubs are playing three designated hitters. Others acknowledge that Arrieta had a career year which is not repeatable in 2016.
Half of the bullpen needs to be rebuilt. The starting rotation still only has two consistent, reliable starters. Montero has turned into a hurricane fan strike out machine.
There is no real help coming from AAA next year. And realistically, the Cubs are not going to spend a lot of money on free agency.
That leaves the trade market.
Smart general managers always trade players just before they start a downward cycle of performance. It is always best to sell high and buy low.
The players that have the most current value on the trade market are:
1. Arrieta. A Cy Young season with two more years of arbitration control makes a staff ace a bargain to teams who don't or who can't spend $22 million/year for a Price, Greinke or Zimmerman. Arrieta may be too good of a bargain to part with, but he could bring in four or five players in a deal to the right club (a major leaguer, two major league ready (pitching) prospects, and two or three low minor high upside players). The haul in players may be more beneficial in the long run than keeping Arrieta for only two more years. (The front office acknowledges that the championship window now is only two years because Arrieta will leave for FA after 2017.)
2. Soler. He had the national spotlight in the off-season and he performed well above his season numbers. In 25 PA, he hit .474, 3 HR, 5 RBI, .600 OBP and 1.105 SLG. He is only 23 years old. He is signed at a reasonable contract ($3.87 million to $4.67 million per year through 2020, with a 2018 opt out clause). A team looking for a right fielder or DH could give the Cubs a very major league/prospect package like an Arrieta deal.
3. Schwarber. He may be the best pure hitter on the Cubs. His short, explosive swing caught the attention of other teams. His outfield defense was troublesome, but he has the skills to be a catcher - - - a commodity in short supply in the majors. Schwarber wants to catch, and during his minor league career he did quite well at both catching and hitting. Some players need to play in the field, be in the action, in order to concentrate more at the plate. Maybe Schwarber is one of those types of players (he is involved in the game even when in the dugout). Major league teams have a shortage of young power hitters so Schwarber is a very valuable trade chip. But because he is young and without much major league experience, his value is more based on potential than actual stats. However, he could probably get a team's number one pitching prospect and several minor league utility players in a deal.
4. Castro. He does not have the most trade value from a team standpoint, but his September batting makes his personal trade value the highest since last off-season when Jeter retired from the Yankees. He can play both middle infield positions. He took his demotion in stride which shows other teams that he is a team player. He has matured so he could be a leader in a clubhouse filled with young Latin players. Teams looking to fill an infield hole with a former All-Star player who could benefit from a change of scenery would like those attributes in Castro. Castro could pull a two for one deal with an eager club.
5. T. Wood. Middle relievers are a dime a dozen, but Wood showed the value in being the best long man on the Cubs staff. Wood was so impressive this year that he said that he would be working to return to a starting role in 2016. A clever general manager would realize that he could obtain a reliable starter who now has command of a fastball for the price of a middle reliever. In return, the Cubs could ask for multiple young low minor league arms to develop.
One of the "loopholes" Epstein-Hoyer used since they arrived in Chicago is the principle of the value of bigger numbers. The more players one acquires the better the chances that one player out of the group will succeed. So far, the Cubs have drafted 43 pitchers and none of them are even close to contributing at the major league level. So instead of drafting, trading for multiple players hoping to find a better player or two than what you give up is the next tool (the Samardzija-Hammel trade to Oakland for example.)
Cub fans should look at the above list and make a simple yes or no acknowledgement to the question "could you live with giving up Arrieta, Soler, Schwarber, Castro and Wood if the Cubs got in return for 14 or more players, including three or four best pitching prospects in the major leagues?"
That is the same question the Cubs front office will ponder in the next few weeks going into the Winter Meetings in December. It would seem so, since the team is quietly trying to clear space on its 40 man roster.
