The early market for starting pitching seems to be soft at the upper tier.
MLB.com reports that Johnny Cueto turned down a six-year, $120 million offer from the
Diamondbacks. On an average annual value basis, that would come in $2
million per year under what Jordan Zimmerman will allegedly sign with the Tigers, at 5 years/$110 million.
With J.A. Happ leading the second tier starters at 3 years/$36 million, there is caution so far in free agency. It may pick up in two weeks at the Winter Meetings.
With pitchers who declined a qualifying offer of $15.6 million, the club that signs them loses a first round draft selection. Pitchers like Jeff Samardzija may believe they they are worth $16 million plus per season, but other teams may balk at the double cost.
Zimmerman's annual cost is $22 million.
Cueto turned down $20 million.
These two are in the top tier four with Price and Greinke.
We expect the top market to round out at $22-25 million per year.
Happ is a second tier starter at an annual cost of $13 million. He did not have a qualifying offer tag.
This means the second tier market will probably shake out to $12-18 million per year.
