The early market for starting pitching seems to be soft at the upper tier.
MLB.com reports that Johnny Cueto turned down a six-year, $120 million offer from the
Diamondbacks. On an average annual value basis, that would come in $2
million per year under what Jordan Zimmerman will allegedly sign with the Tigers, at 5 years/$110 million.
With J.A. Happ leading the second tier starters at 3 years/$36 million, there is caution so far in free agency. It may pick up in two weeks at the Winter Meetings.
With pitchers who declined a qualifying offer of $15.6 million, the club that signs them loses a first round draft selection. Pitchers like Jeff Samardzija may believe they they are worth $16 million plus per season, but other teams may balk at the double cost.
Zimmerman's annual cost is $22 million.
Cueto turned down $20 million.
These two are in the top tier four with Price and Greinke.
We expect the top market to round out at $22-25 million per year.
Happ is a second tier starter at an annual cost of $13 million. He did not have a qualifying offer tag.
This means the second tier market will probably shake out to $12-18 million per year.
Showing posts with label Blue Jays. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Blue Jays. Show all posts
November 30, 2015
November 2, 2015
THE BLUES IN TORONTO
In recent years, the Blue Jays have made some major deals in order to get out of the cellar of the highly competitive AL East. In doing so, the team traded away many of its young, good prospects (for example to the World Series bound Mets). But the Jays did reach the promise land, the ALCS this year because of those trades.
And some aggressive general managing by Alex Anthopoulos who had been the
Blue Jays' general manager since 2009. He inherited Vernon Wells and his
awful contract, as well as a farm system full of future relievers, and
eventually turned it all into Toronto's first playoff appearance since
1993. He wasn't the perfect GM, but he eventually did what had to be
done to earn that postseason trip, giving up prospects when the team had
a clear shot in the present to do something besides flounder in the
middle of the division, as recounted by MLBTR.
MLBTR reports that Anthopoulos' aggressive trade syle did not sit well with the team's new President, Mark Shapiro. There is a report that Shapiro "scolded" Anthopoulos in their lone meeting before his
hiring for trading so many top prospects in 2015.
There is a lot to unpack from
that scolding. I agree with MLBTR that the idea of Shapiro berating someone on the right way to
build a winner may be tops on that list, as Shapiro ran the Indians as their
GM from 2001 through 2010, then became Cleveland's President. But Shapiro's
Indians made the playoffs three times in that entire stretch, and while
they never finished in last under those two, they did end the season in
fourth on five occasions and third in another five. Shapiro's track record is actually worse than Anthopoulos'.
You can't just
prospect hoard in order to win. The Cubs under Jim Hendry did that and failed because their prized prospects were not that good in the end. Instead of trading prospects at their peak potential for other players or other prospects, the Cubs languished in the middle hoping for free agents to make competitive teams. Anthopoulos recognized as much when the
opportunity to add came this summer -- you want to build with prospects,
but they exist to fill holes either by themselves or through trades
when they cannot.
Ownership usually demands a "win now" philosophy. Fans cannot tolerate passive front offices not trying hard to improve their clubs. Anthopoulos was an aggressive general manager who made a lot of player moves, churned rosters in order to find the best 25 man roster. He was willing to make mistakes in order complete this vision.
It appears his days as Toronto's GM are over. However, he will easily find a job in another organization.
October 13, 2015
BUZZING
The baseball world is still buzzing about last night's explosive action.
The Cubs set a major league record for hitting six home runs in a playoff game.
But more puzzling, confusing and odd was the Blue Jays using starter David Price in relief in last night's game in Texas. The Jays were down 2-1 in the series so it was a "must win."
The Jays rocketed in the first to a 3-0 lead over the Rangers. R.A. Dickey, the 2012 NL Cy Young winner when he won 20 games for the Mets, allowed only one run over 4 2/3 innings and was pulled with a 7-1 lead, with a runner on base. Shin Soo Choo, who already with two hits, was coming to the plate.
"It was hard for me to do, but I thought that was the best way to win the game, keep them from coming back," Jays manager Gibbons said. "Probably not a relationship-building move, but a team win, that's what I was looking for."
Price needed only one pitch to retire Choo to end the fifth, and went three innings to get the win after losing in the series opener. However, Price gave up 3 earned runs over his three innings of work.
Everyone expected the 6'5" All Star pitcher Price to start Game 5 in Toronto. Instead, the Jays will got with their home grown 5'9" spark plug, Marcus Stroman.
A few national media members think that using Price in Game 4 relief (he threw 50 pitches) eliminated the debate on who would start Game 5. It was a calculated move by the Blue Jays to NOT have Price available to start in Toronto. Even though Price has had less than stellar post season record, just like Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, on the surface starting Price gives the Jays the best chance to win the game, right?
Apparently management thinks otherwise. And that is probably a bitter pill for Price to swallow this off-season. It will not hurt his value as Price is the best AL pitcher in the regular season. It is just that owners pay $200 million for ace starters who can dominate in the postseason like Madison Bumgartner.
But the Jays traded a lot of talent to get Price from Detroit prior to the trade deadline.
The Jays took the story line of redemption out of Price's hands and put the fate of the season on a young hurler. Stroman only started 4 games this year, going 4-0, 1.67 ERA in 27 IP with a 0.963 WHIP for a 1.2 WAR.
It would seem that the Jays do not expect to sign Price in the off-season so it makes some sense to battle test the pitchers who will be around in the 2016 pennant run.
The Cubs set a major league record for hitting six home runs in a playoff game.
But more puzzling, confusing and odd was the Blue Jays using starter David Price in relief in last night's game in Texas. The Jays were down 2-1 in the series so it was a "must win."
The Jays rocketed in the first to a 3-0 lead over the Rangers. R.A. Dickey, the 2012 NL Cy Young winner when he won 20 games for the Mets, allowed only one run over 4 2/3 innings and was pulled with a 7-1 lead, with a runner on base. Shin Soo Choo, who already with two hits, was coming to the plate.
"It was hard for me to do, but I thought that was the best way to win the game, keep them from coming back," Jays manager Gibbons said. "Probably not a relationship-building move, but a team win, that's what I was looking for."
Price needed only one pitch to retire Choo to end the fifth, and went three innings to get the win after losing in the series opener. However, Price gave up 3 earned runs over his three innings of work.
Everyone expected the 6'5" All Star pitcher Price to start Game 5 in Toronto. Instead, the Jays will got with their home grown 5'9" spark plug, Marcus Stroman.
A few national media members think that using Price in Game 4 relief (he threw 50 pitches) eliminated the debate on who would start Game 5. It was a calculated move by the Blue Jays to NOT have Price available to start in Toronto. Even though Price has had less than stellar post season record, just like Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, on the surface starting Price gives the Jays the best chance to win the game, right?
Apparently management thinks otherwise. And that is probably a bitter pill for Price to swallow this off-season. It will not hurt his value as Price is the best AL pitcher in the regular season. It is just that owners pay $200 million for ace starters who can dominate in the postseason like Madison Bumgartner.
But the Jays traded a lot of talent to get Price from Detroit prior to the trade deadline.
The Jays took the story line of redemption out of Price's hands and put the fate of the season on a young hurler. Stroman only started 4 games this year, going 4-0, 1.67 ERA in 27 IP with a 0.963 WHIP for a 1.2 WAR.
It would seem that the Jays do not expect to sign Price in the off-season so it makes some sense to battle test the pitchers who will be around in the 2016 pennant run.
August 17, 2015
SPENDING MONEY TO MAKE MONEY
SB Nation (via another publication) calculates that the Blue Jays trading deadline moves not only helped the club vault into first place but also helped the bottom line.
When the Blue
Jays traded Jose Reyes and prospects for Troy Tulowitzki, no money
exchanged hands. Tulowitzki was owed $94 million after this season and
Reyes was owed $48 million. That means the Blue Jays assumed an extra
an extra $46 million. It was a risk. Except, the Blue Jays have already made that money back. From Financial Post:
Overall, (Team Marketing) estimates that group of four would pay $270.43 for the whole trip to the ball game, just a few dollars over the MLB average.
I recall when Harry Carey commanded the Wrigley Field press box. A Tribune executive secretly whispered that Carey was the most underpaid person in the organization. Why? Because he brought in fans to the ball park. But beyond mere attendance, he brought in beer drinking fans (the most profitable segment of concession sales.)That works out to $67.61 per person. Multiply that by 465,000 more bums in seats and you’ve got a whopping $31.4 million — more than triple the extra spending on salaries.
For example, another 10,000 in ticket sales per game by fans drinking $7 worth of beer for a home season calculates to $5.67 million. Plus Carey was a great ambassador for the beer company, who would spend millions more on ball park advertising.
August 13, 2015
HOW STRANGE
Did you realize that this morning the defending World Series champions, the Giants, are the same amount of games out of the Wild Card than the lowly White Sox?
Both teams are 4.5 GB in the last wild card spot.
But you could never imagine anyone thinking the Giants and White Sox' shot at the playoffs were equal. The Giants are a good, competitive club even though they were swept by the Cubs. The White Sox have been an underwhelming, underachieving team all season.
The AL playoff race has tightened up. The White Sox still have to climb over many teams to reach the playoffs while the Giants only need the Pirates or Cubs to fall.
But anything is possible.
Take the Blue Jays unbelievable run.
Last night twelve of the first 16 Blue Jays batters reached base as Toronto scored three runs in the first and seven in the second to trounce Oakland for the Jays' 10th consecutive victory. A victory with the Yankees loss to Cleveland, moved the Blue Jays into first place in the AL East.
Two weeks ago, the Blue Jays were in 4th place and 8 games out of first place. Then they made a flurry of deals including acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Since then, the Blue Jays have gone 13-1 while the Yankees have gone 4-9.
Realistically, there is 7 weeks left in the season. Any team more than 7 games behind a playoff slot is probably out of the race, since making up 1 game a 1 week is the most reasonable prediction any GM can make at this time in the season.
Both teams are 4.5 GB in the last wild card spot.
But you could never imagine anyone thinking the Giants and White Sox' shot at the playoffs were equal. The Giants are a good, competitive club even though they were swept by the Cubs. The White Sox have been an underwhelming, underachieving team all season.
The AL playoff race has tightened up. The White Sox still have to climb over many teams to reach the playoffs while the Giants only need the Pirates or Cubs to fall.
But anything is possible.
Take the Blue Jays unbelievable run.
Last night twelve of the first 16 Blue Jays batters reached base as Toronto scored three runs in the first and seven in the second to trounce Oakland for the Jays' 10th consecutive victory. A victory with the Yankees loss to Cleveland, moved the Blue Jays into first place in the AL East.
Two weeks ago, the Blue Jays were in 4th place and 8 games out of first place. Then they made a flurry of deals including acquiring Troy Tulowitzki and David Price. Since then, the Blue Jays have gone 13-1 while the Yankees have gone 4-9.
Realistically, there is 7 weeks left in the season. Any team more than 7 games behind a playoff slot is probably out of the race, since making up 1 game a 1 week is the most reasonable prediction any GM can make at this time in the season.
July 31, 2015
PRICE WAS HIGH
The Toronto Blue Jays went all in for David Price, trading three left handed prospects for the rental pitcher.
The marquee piece coming in return is top Blue Jays prospect Daniel Norris and two other lefties, Jairo Labourt, and Matt Boyd.
Price has pitched to a 2.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 146 innings on the year. That puts him on pace for a 200+ inning campaign with excellent results, Since his first full season in the big leagues, in 2010, Price has rated hird in the majors among all starters in terms of fWAR, fourth in innings (1,224), and tenth in ERA (3.01) among qualifying starters. He has struck out 8.6 and walked 2.2 batters per nine innings in that span.
The Blue Jays are taking the remaining $7 million salary and lose the chance for a draft pick because they can't give a qualifying offer to Price as he hits the free agent market. Price will be the prize in this season's free agent derby.
Toronto's prospects are good. Norris was 18th best prospect on Baseball America’s mid-season round-up. He’s a 22-year-old with loud stuff but sometimes-shaky control, as evidenced by his seventeen walks in thirty big league innings. But he’s got plenty of upside, obviously, particularly if he can harness his offerings. Over 90 2/3 frames at Triple-A this year, Norris owns a 4.27 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. But he was much better last year, putting up double-digit K/9 numbers and allowing only 3.1 walks per nine en route to a 2.53 earned run mark in 124 1/3 minor league innings.
Labourt, 21, is working at the High-A level and ranks 19th on MLB.com’s prospect list of his now-former club’s prospects. The large-bodied sinkerballer could become a “future workhorse,” says MLB.com, though he’s scuffled somewhat this year. Over 80 1/3 innings, Labourt owns a 4.59 ERA with 7.8 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9.
The 24-year-old Boyd has spent most of the year in the high minors after a brief (and rough) two-start stint in the majors. He earned the 11th spot on MLB.com’s Toronto board. He doesn’t have a huge arm, but excels with feel, command, and deception.
On a value basis, is Price worth 3.0 WAR to the Jays for the remainder of the season? That would assume the three prospect pitchers combined would give the Jays replacement value this season. Norris has only a 0.2 WAR in limited work. Price, in 21 Tiger starts, is 9-4, 2.53 ERA, 1.110 WHIP and 3.5 WAR. He has a career 26.7 WAR which averages out to about 4.0 WAR per season. Last year he was 4.6 WAR, then prior two years 2.8 and 4.6. If we average the last three years, his average WAR is 4.77. 4.77 minus 3.5 (current) equals a projected balance of 2015 WAR of 1.27.
If one values a player based upon $/WAR(2014 off season median was $6 million/win), then the Jays should expect $7.62 million worth of production from Price for the rest of the season (bonus with post season play). So from Toronto's perspective, Price is reasonably valued for the projected performance for the rest of this season.
It means that the Blue Jays gave up three pitchers controllable for the next five years for one very good starter's next 10 starts.
The marquee piece coming in return is top Blue Jays prospect Daniel Norris and two other lefties, Jairo Labourt, and Matt Boyd.
Price has pitched to a 2.53 ERA with 8.5 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9 over 146 innings on the year. That puts him on pace for a 200+ inning campaign with excellent results, Since his first full season in the big leagues, in 2010, Price has rated hird in the majors among all starters in terms of fWAR, fourth in innings (1,224), and tenth in ERA (3.01) among qualifying starters. He has struck out 8.6 and walked 2.2 batters per nine innings in that span.
The Blue Jays are taking the remaining $7 million salary and lose the chance for a draft pick because they can't give a qualifying offer to Price as he hits the free agent market. Price will be the prize in this season's free agent derby.
Toronto's prospects are good. Norris was 18th best prospect on Baseball America’s mid-season round-up. He’s a 22-year-old with loud stuff but sometimes-shaky control, as evidenced by his seventeen walks in thirty big league innings. But he’s got plenty of upside, obviously, particularly if he can harness his offerings. Over 90 2/3 frames at Triple-A this year, Norris owns a 4.27 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 4.1 BB/9. But he was much better last year, putting up double-digit K/9 numbers and allowing only 3.1 walks per nine en route to a 2.53 earned run mark in 124 1/3 minor league innings.
Labourt, 21, is working at the High-A level and ranks 19th on MLB.com’s prospect list of his now-former club’s prospects. The large-bodied sinkerballer could become a “future workhorse,” says MLB.com, though he’s scuffled somewhat this year. Over 80 1/3 innings, Labourt owns a 4.59 ERA with 7.8 K/9 against 4.9 BB/9.
The 24-year-old Boyd has spent most of the year in the high minors after a brief (and rough) two-start stint in the majors. He earned the 11th spot on MLB.com’s Toronto board. He doesn’t have a huge arm, but excels with feel, command, and deception.
On a value basis, is Price worth 3.0 WAR to the Jays for the remainder of the season? That would assume the three prospect pitchers combined would give the Jays replacement value this season. Norris has only a 0.2 WAR in limited work. Price, in 21 Tiger starts, is 9-4, 2.53 ERA, 1.110 WHIP and 3.5 WAR. He has a career 26.7 WAR which averages out to about 4.0 WAR per season. Last year he was 4.6 WAR, then prior two years 2.8 and 4.6. If we average the last three years, his average WAR is 4.77. 4.77 minus 3.5 (current) equals a projected balance of 2015 WAR of 1.27.
If one values a player based upon $/WAR(2014 off season median was $6 million/win), then the Jays should expect $7.62 million worth of production from Price for the rest of the season (bonus with post season play). So from Toronto's perspective, Price is reasonably valued for the projected performance for the rest of this season.
It means that the Blue Jays gave up three pitchers controllable for the next five years for one very good starter's next 10 starts.
January 19, 2015
THE OTHER OFF-SEASON
The Toronto Blue Jays have been an aggressive front office for some time. But it seems the high powered owner, Rogers Communications, wants to add some real quality bench support to the management ranks.
Numerous reports indicate that the Jays are trying to hire Dan Duquette from the Orioles. The team wants Duquette to become the new President of the club. However, Duquette is under contract with the Orioles thorough 2018. In order to get Duquette, Toronto would have to "trade" for him.
Orioles owner Peter Angelos adamantly denied that the Orioles are in negotiations with the Blue Jays regarding Duquette. Angelos told the Baltimore Sun:
Current president Paul Beeston is still set to represent the Jays at the upcoming owner’s meetings, Morosi adds. Of course, it would be a stretch to expect Duquette to be up and running in such short order, and a transition period will obviously be necessary regardless of when (and with whom) a contract is signed.
Duquette is the unsung hero in the Boston Red Sox championship seasons, He was ousted prior to the first championship season due to conflicts with Red Sox executives. He has been credited with the fine turnaround with the Orioles franchise in recent years. He has a good resume of rebuilding clubs, so it makes sense for the Blue Jays to be interested in his services.
Numerous reports indicate that the Jays are trying to hire Dan Duquette from the Orioles. The team wants Duquette to become the new President of the club. However, Duquette is under contract with the Orioles thorough 2018. In order to get Duquette, Toronto would have to "trade" for him.
Orioles owner Peter Angelos adamantly denied that the Orioles are in negotiations with the Blue Jays regarding Duquette. Angelos told the Baltimore Sun:
“We are not negotiating with them in any way. They have expressed interest in Dan Duquette, which we understand because Dan is an exceptional GM. But we are not in any negotiations with Mr. Rogers. We have a contract [with Duquette], and that’s the end of it.”Angelos did concede that if the Blue Jays made an offer, he would take a look at the proposition, but he is not actively negotiating and has no intent on allowing Duquette to leave for a division rival. It is believed that the Orioles would have to be blown away to part with Duquette, and historically speaking, compensation for parting with executives has been minimal.
Current president Paul Beeston is still set to represent the Jays at the upcoming owner’s meetings, Morosi adds. Of course, it would be a stretch to expect Duquette to be up and running in such short order, and a transition period will obviously be necessary regardless of when (and with whom) a contract is signed.
Duquette is the unsung hero in the Boston Red Sox championship seasons, He was ousted prior to the first championship season due to conflicts with Red Sox executives. He has been credited with the fine turnaround with the Orioles franchise in recent years. He has a good resume of rebuilding clubs, so it makes sense for the Blue Jays to be interested in his services.
December 13, 2013
HIGH PRICE
Theo Epstein tells reporters that the Cubs have made "lots of offers" to players and teams. That may just be smoke, or if given the lack of major movement this off season, not really good offers.
The Toronto Sun reported that the Cubs are asking for Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and a third prospect from the Blue Jays for Jeff Samardzija. Blue Jays GM Anthopoulos has said that he was constantly being asked about Stroman and Sanchez, the Jays' top two pitching prospects, in possible deals.
If this is the type of value the Cubs want for Samardzija, then the Shark will be with the Cubs on Opening Day. To most other clubs, Samardzija is a #3 starter. The Cubs are trying to get Kershaw-Verlander value for him. As stated in an earlier post, as a matter of similar career statistics, would the Blue Jays trade their #1, #2 and another prospect for pitcher Galvin Floyd, formerly of the White Sox?
And considering what the Tigers received for Doug Fister, the Cubs are overreaching in the current trade market.
So the Cubs can be making a lot of telephone calls to other teams, but it appears it will not be productive.
The Toronto Sun reported that the Cubs are asking for Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez and a third prospect from the Blue Jays for Jeff Samardzija. Blue Jays GM Anthopoulos has said that he was constantly being asked about Stroman and Sanchez, the Jays' top two pitching prospects, in possible deals.
If this is the type of value the Cubs want for Samardzija, then the Shark will be with the Cubs on Opening Day. To most other clubs, Samardzija is a #3 starter. The Cubs are trying to get Kershaw-Verlander value for him. As stated in an earlier post, as a matter of similar career statistics, would the Blue Jays trade their #1, #2 and another prospect for pitcher Galvin Floyd, formerly of the White Sox?
And considering what the Tigers received for Doug Fister, the Cubs are overreaching in the current trade market.
So the Cubs can be making a lot of telephone calls to other teams, but it appears it will not be productive.
November 25, 2013
PULL THE TRIGGER
The Blue Jays are an organization that is not afraid to pull the trigger on major trades.
Several reports state that the Blue Jays have inquired on Cubs pitcher Jeff Samardzija, and that the Blue Jays are putting together a package of young players to try to land him, a source tells Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com For his part, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos didn't deny that he has discussed Samardzija with Chicago in an interview with Jim Bowden of SiriusXM.
The Blue Jays are stocked with pitching prospects. It is doubtful that No. 1 prospect RHPAaron Sanchez or No. 2 RHP Roberto Osuna would be part of a Samardzija deal, No. 3 AA pitcher Marcus Stroman could be, or No. 4 LHP Daniel Norris.
No. 5 LHP Sean Nolin got a taste of MLB action last season. No. 6 prospect RHP John Stilson was at AAA last season and could be promoted as insurance for the Jays current MLB roster pitching depth (Dickey, Buehrle, Morrow, Happ, Hutchinson, Drabek - - who is coming back from Tommy John surgery).
The Jays also have a third catcher on their 40 man roster, A.J. Jimeniz, who projects to be a solid major league catcher. He is currently inactive (injured) but the 23 year old played well in AAA last season.
If the Blue Jays propose a package of two pitching prospects and Jimeniz, the Cubs would be foolish not to jump on that deal.
Several reports state that the Blue Jays have inquired on Cubs pitcher Jeff Samardzija, and that the Blue Jays are putting together a package of young players to try to land him, a source tells Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago.com For his part, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos didn't deny that he has discussed Samardzija with Chicago in an interview with Jim Bowden of SiriusXM.
The Blue Jays are stocked with pitching prospects. It is doubtful that No. 1 prospect RHPAaron Sanchez or No. 2 RHP Roberto Osuna would be part of a Samardzija deal, No. 3 AA pitcher Marcus Stroman could be, or No. 4 LHP Daniel Norris.
No. 5 LHP Sean Nolin got a taste of MLB action last season. No. 6 prospect RHP John Stilson was at AAA last season and could be promoted as insurance for the Jays current MLB roster pitching depth (Dickey, Buehrle, Morrow, Happ, Hutchinson, Drabek - - who is coming back from Tommy John surgery).
The Jays also have a third catcher on their 40 man roster, A.J. Jimeniz, who projects to be a solid major league catcher. He is currently inactive (injured) but the 23 year old played well in AAA last season.
If the Blue Jays propose a package of two pitching prospects and Jimeniz, the Cubs would be foolish not to jump on that deal.
September 2, 2013
TALENT POOLS
There is a limited number of sources for a baseball team to acquire talent.
At the lowest tier, a front office has several places to sign talent. In the U.S., there are college and high school players subject to the June draft. The most a team could sign is approximately 40 players. The next group are foreign players. The amateur players are now subject to CBA bonus pool restrictions. Most teams sign between 1 to 5 foreign youngsters (ages 16 to 18). The other is foreign professional players. Depending on the type and quality of league (Japanese, Cuban, Mexican, etc.), those talents are equivalent to middle minor league talent. After a certain amount of years of service, minor leaguers who have not been promoted can become minor league free agents. By that time, in their mid to late 20s, they are no longer considered prospects. The most talented still may find work in the high minors as insurance against injury at the major league level. The last area (which has suddenly become a feeding ground for aggressive GMs who want to improve their systems) is the waiver wire/designated for assignment pro player pools. At times, DFA's players do not get claimed and become free agents. Typically, these players have some major league experience and could be an upgrade for bad teams. However, they usually have very little upset potential.
At the next level, ball clubs have their development affiliate minor league clubs. At this point, talent is assigned to various skill levels with the hope that training, experience and pro coaching will increase the probability of success. As a general rule, 2/3 of rookie ball players will get promoted to Class A. More than half of Class A players will get promoted to Class AA where competition level increases several fold. Probably a third of Class AA players get promoted to Class AAA. Depending on various factors, including age, offensive stats, defensive prowess, and the major league club current needs, Class AAA players find themselves "blocked" at this level until an opportunity arises. On average, probably less than a third of AAA players will get any meaningful major league service time in their careers.
The next resource level is obtaining talent from other major league clubs. Major league talent coming from trades is more reliable indicator of future performance than minor league players. That is why it typically costs a team more "assets" (in cash, prospects, or other players) to obtain a quality a major league player. The other source of major league talent is the free agent pool. The top third of the annual FA pool demand top dollar, long term contracts which some teams cannot afford.
So how do successful organizations use these talent pools to their advantage?
Blue Jays general manager
Alex Anthopoulos is an aggressive general manager who does not like to stand pat. He is constantly looking to improve his major league team. Last off season he orchestrated the 12 player blockbuster deal with the Marlins. MLB only approved the deal because the Marlins received viable prospects in exchange. Anthopoulos has been active in the foreign player market. He can market Toronto as an international city.
He starts with a three year plan to build a contender around a present nucleus of major league players. He adds to the core team by not trading away
one of the Blue Jay’s top players. He does not rely on any single talent pool in order to build his major league roster. It is not out of his realm to make minor league trades. When he realized that his upper minor league system was weak, he aggressively worked the waiver wire claiming players from other clubs, then sending them back through to clear so they could be optioned to AAA. If a claimed player made the organizational flow chart, he could also be quickly dispatched if a better player was claimed off waivers a day, a week or month later. In other words, Anthopoulos takes a balanced approach to acquiring talent for the Blue Jays. He is not reliant on one aspect of player development. His focus is the current major league roster and how he can make it better this season and next year. He is not afraid to trade away top prospects for proven major league talent. He is not afraid to sign troubled free agents like Melky Cabrera if that can upgrade his team.
This is what he did just last off season:
There was a record amount of player movement for the Jays while retaining the
great talent already on the major league roster.
Key players lost in free agency: Jason Frasor (to Texas Rangers), Kelly Johnson (to Tampa Bay Rays), Brandon Lyon (to New York Mets), and Carlos Villanueva (to Chicago Cubs).
Players traded to Marlins: Henderson Álvarez, Anthony Desclafani, Yunel Escobar, Adeiny Hechavarria, Jake Marisnick, Jeff Mathis, and Justin Nicolino.
Players traded to Mets: Wuilmer Becrra, John Buck, Travis D'Arnaud, and Noah Syndergaard.
Key players brought in through free agency: Melky Cabrera (formerly with San Francisco Giants), Maicer Izturis (formerly with LA Angels).
Players brought in from Marlins: Emilio Bonifacio, John Buck (traded to Mets), Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson, and José Reyes.
Players brought in from Mets: R.A. Dickey, Mike Nickeas, and Josh Thole.
Despite the moves, MLB.com stated during spring training that even though "the Jays traded many of the most promising prospects in deals with the Marlins and Mets, but they still have an adequate farm system filled with talent."
To summarize, Anthopoulos uses all aspects of the lower tier talent pools to upgrade his organizational depth. He is not afraid to aggressively promote talent or trade prospects for proven major league talent. He is creative enough to swing complicated three team deals. He scours the waiver wire to supplement his rosters. Then, when he believes there is a chance to have a playoff run, he pulls off a blockbuster trade. Even though some of his moves did not work out, Toronto fans are not up in arms because their GM is using all the tools at his disposal in order to try to make a championship caliber team.
November 14, 2012
EPIC DEAL
The Blue Jays own website called the proposed deal "epic."
Blue Jays General ManagerAlex Anthopoulos has never been afraid to make the big deals, but the one with the Marlins suddenly catapults Toronto to near the top of the AL East.
Toronto's general manager appears to have orchestrated a 12-player deal with the reeling Miami Marlins that provides a major boost to the club's chances of reaching the postseason. In one quick strike, the Blue Jays filled their holes in the starting rotation and acquired an elite hitter to place at the top of their lineup.
The blockbuster trade was first reported by Foxsports.com and sees shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio headed to the Blue Jays.
The demolition Marlins are to receive seven young players in return: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino and veteran backup catcher Jeff Mathis.
The deal is pending player physicals and MLB approval of money to be exchanged between the teams.
Clearly, the Marlins have been in salary dump mode since their touted season in a new publicly financed stadium under a new world series pedigree manager Ozzie Guillen crashed and burned on take off. The small market Marlins suddenly spent huge sums on free agents such as Buerhle, Reyes, Heath Bell - - - cracking the $100 million payroll for the first time. But the team quickly fell to the bottom, and ownership was arguing with team executives at the end. The fire sale started before the end of last season with the trade of unhappy Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. Now, the completion of the dismantling of the team is apparent with the Blue Jays deal.
With the deal, the Blue Jays will take on upwards of $165 million in salaries. It's by far the highest guaranteed salary trade the Blue Jays have made during their existence in Major League Baseball.
Toronto was always interested in Reyes, who has five years remaining at a total of $96 million. He would give the Blue Jays a traditional leadoff hitter for the first time in recent memory and will allow the club to move third baseman Brett Lawrie down in the order.
Reyes is coming off a season in which he hit .287 with 11 homers and 57 RBIs in 160 games. He is just one season removed from winning the National League batting crown with a .337 average and would now play a pivotal role in Toronto's lineup by attempting to get on base for sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
The presence of Johnson and Buehrle in the deal would fill a couple of glaring holes in Toronto's starting rotation. The two proven arms would join Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero in the starting five, while J.A. Happ would become the early favorite to win the final spot.
Johnson has just one year and $13.75 million remaining on his contract and is set to hit free agency following the 2013 campaign. Last year, Johnson went 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA during a somewhat inconsistent campaign, but he has the type of potential to be a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter. From 2009-2011, Johnson went 29-12 with a remarkable 2.64 ERA in 70 starts.
Buehrle, 33, is the former White Sox ace. He is a consistent innings eater. He signed a four-year free agent contract worth $58 million with the Marlins to follow his manager, Guillen, to Miami, but now finds himself relocating for the second time in just two years. Last season, Buehrle went 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 31 starts.
The Marlins are to receive quality prospects. Marisnick (No. 2) and Hechavarria (No. 7) were both ranked among the Blue Jays top 20 prospects by MLB.com, while DeSclafani would have been a candidate to crack that list in 2013.
Alvarez, 22, was once considered one of Toronto's best pitching prospects, but he took a noticeable step back in 2012. He went just 9-14 with a 4.85 ERA and the lack of a consistent third pitch helped offset an otherwise overpowering fastball in the high 90s and a changeup combination.
The deal also provides a fresh start to Escobar, who received a three-game suspension for a racial slur, which only added to the disappointment of a frustrating season that saw him hit just .253 in 145 games. However, he is an above average defensive shortstop.
Mathis' inclusion in the deal had as much to do with Toronto's catching depth than anything else. The Blue Jays already have J.P. Arencibia entrenched as the club's starting catcher, while top prospect Travis d'Arnaud is waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
Buck could help the Blue Jays remain even more patient with d'Arnaud while backing up Arencibia, but there's an even stronger likelihood that Anthopoulos isn't done dealing and will eventually move another catcher. Or Buck could be moved in a trade to restock the Toronto farm system at a later time.
For the past couple of years, the Blue Jays front office talked at great length about the upside of Toronto's baseball market. President Paul Beeston envisioned one day of having a payroll around $150 million, but it always came with the caveat that attendance would have to increase first.
That finally happened in 2012, as Toronto increased its ticket sales by more than 3,000 per game. The Blue Jays ranked third in attendance with 2,099,663, which was their highest total since 2008.
Clearly, the Blue Jays are going "all in" in 2013 with the aging Yankees losing several players in the off-season and the Red Sox still in turmoil (after their blockbuster salary dump trade with the Dodgers). The Blue Jays now project to be #2 in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays.
Blue Jays General ManagerAlex Anthopoulos has never been afraid to make the big deals, but the one with the Marlins suddenly catapults Toronto to near the top of the AL East.
Toronto's general manager appears to have orchestrated a 12-player deal with the reeling Miami Marlins that provides a major boost to the club's chances of reaching the postseason. In one quick strike, the Blue Jays filled their holes in the starting rotation and acquired an elite hitter to place at the top of their lineup.
The blockbuster trade was first reported by Foxsports.com and sees shortstop Jose Reyes, right-hander Josh Johnson, left-hander Mark Buehrle, catcher John Buck and utility player Emilio Bonifacio headed to the Blue Jays.
The demolition Marlins are to receive seven young players in return: shortstop Yunel Escobar, right-hander Henderson Alvarez, Cuban prospect Adeiny Hechavarria, outfield prospect Jake Marisnick, pitching prospects Anthony Desclafani and Justin Nicolino and veteran backup catcher Jeff Mathis.
The deal is pending player physicals and MLB approval of money to be exchanged between the teams.
Clearly, the Marlins have been in salary dump mode since their touted season in a new publicly financed stadium under a new world series pedigree manager Ozzie Guillen crashed and burned on take off. The small market Marlins suddenly spent huge sums on free agents such as Buerhle, Reyes, Heath Bell - - - cracking the $100 million payroll for the first time. But the team quickly fell to the bottom, and ownership was arguing with team executives at the end. The fire sale started before the end of last season with the trade of unhappy Hanley Ramirez to the Dodgers. Now, the completion of the dismantling of the team is apparent with the Blue Jays deal.
With the deal, the Blue Jays will take on upwards of $165 million in salaries. It's by far the highest guaranteed salary trade the Blue Jays have made during their existence in Major League Baseball.
Toronto was always interested in Reyes, who has five years remaining at a total of $96 million. He would give the Blue Jays a traditional leadoff hitter for the first time in recent memory and will allow the club to move third baseman Brett Lawrie down in the order.
Reyes is coming off a season in which he hit .287 with 11 homers and 57 RBIs in 160 games. He is just one season removed from winning the National League batting crown with a .337 average and would now play a pivotal role in Toronto's lineup by attempting to get on base for sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
The presence of Johnson and Buehrle in the deal would fill a couple of glaring holes in Toronto's starting rotation. The two proven arms would join Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero in the starting five, while J.A. Happ would become the early favorite to win the final spot.
Johnson has just one year and $13.75 million remaining on his contract and is set to hit free agency following the 2013 campaign. Last year, Johnson went 8-14 with a 3.81 ERA during a somewhat inconsistent campaign, but he has the type of potential to be a bonafide front-of-the-rotation starter. From 2009-2011, Johnson went 29-12 with a remarkable 2.64 ERA in 70 starts.
Buehrle, 33, is the former White Sox ace. He is a consistent innings eater. He signed a four-year free agent contract worth $58 million with the Marlins to follow his manager, Guillen, to Miami, but now finds himself relocating for the second time in just two years. Last season, Buehrle went 13-13 with a 3.74 ERA in 31 starts.
The Marlins are to receive quality prospects. Marisnick (No. 2) and Hechavarria (No. 7) were both ranked among the Blue Jays top 20 prospects by MLB.com, while DeSclafani would have been a candidate to crack that list in 2013.
Alvarez, 22, was once considered one of Toronto's best pitching prospects, but he took a noticeable step back in 2012. He went just 9-14 with a 4.85 ERA and the lack of a consistent third pitch helped offset an otherwise overpowering fastball in the high 90s and a changeup combination.
The deal also provides a fresh start to Escobar, who received a three-game suspension for a racial slur, which only added to the disappointment of a frustrating season that saw him hit just .253 in 145 games. However, he is an above average defensive shortstop.
Mathis' inclusion in the deal had as much to do with Toronto's catching depth than anything else. The Blue Jays already have J.P. Arencibia entrenched as the club's starting catcher, while top prospect Travis d'Arnaud is waiting in the wings at Triple-A.
Buck could help the Blue Jays remain even more patient with d'Arnaud while backing up Arencibia, but there's an even stronger likelihood that Anthopoulos isn't done dealing and will eventually move another catcher. Or Buck could be moved in a trade to restock the Toronto farm system at a later time.
For the past couple of years, the Blue Jays front office talked at great length about the upside of Toronto's baseball market. President Paul Beeston envisioned one day of having a payroll around $150 million, but it always came with the caveat that attendance would have to increase first.
That finally happened in 2012, as Toronto increased its ticket sales by more than 3,000 per game. The Blue Jays ranked third in attendance with 2,099,663, which was their highest total since 2008.
Clearly, the Blue Jays are going "all in" in 2013 with the aging Yankees losing several players in the off-season and the Red Sox still in turmoil (after their blockbuster salary dump trade with the Dodgers). The Blue Jays now project to be #2 in the AL East behind the Tampa Bay Rays.
October 22, 2012
TRADING MANAGERS
If major league baseball does not like the concept of trading managers or management personnel for players, it has not stopped the wave of changes in the last two seasons.
The Blue Jays have "traded" manager John Farrell to the Red Sox for 31 year old utility infielder Mike Aviles. Aviles hit .250, 13 HR, 60 RBI for Boston in 2012. Aviles projects to be a solid bench player in 2013.
Farrell goes back to Boston where he inherits a boat load of player dissension and bad play. After Terry Francona September 2011 team meltdown, the Red Sox pulled in a hard nose, old school manager in Bobby Valentine, who was burned at the stake by the players, media and eventually Red Sox management.
The Blue Jays struggled at times under Farrell. Farrell was the hot candidate a few years back. Apparently, the Blue Jay management questioned the team's lack of on-field discipline during the 2012 season as a possible reason for allowing Farrell to leave the team. Another reason may have been giving Farrell a multi-year extension, when the Blue Jays have not performed well under his leadership.
Baseball managers, statistically, may directly influence 3 to 5 games a season. Great managers seem to get the most "intangibles" out of their rosters on a daily basis. Good managers seem to keep a team on an even keel and usually wind up at .500. Bad managers compound their team's weaknesses and usually do not stay around long enough to right the ship.
Farrell goes to a team, the Red Sox, that used to have the resources to buy free agents and push for the playoffs. The Red Sox traded away $250 million in contract obligations to the Dodgers. There is no indication that the Red Sox will turn around and spend that money in free agency this off season. Farrell may be stuck with the same roster as Valentine.
The Blue Jays have "traded" manager John Farrell to the Red Sox for 31 year old utility infielder Mike Aviles. Aviles hit .250, 13 HR, 60 RBI for Boston in 2012. Aviles projects to be a solid bench player in 2013.
Farrell goes back to Boston where he inherits a boat load of player dissension and bad play. After Terry Francona September 2011 team meltdown, the Red Sox pulled in a hard nose, old school manager in Bobby Valentine, who was burned at the stake by the players, media and eventually Red Sox management.
The Blue Jays struggled at times under Farrell. Farrell was the hot candidate a few years back. Apparently, the Blue Jay management questioned the team's lack of on-field discipline during the 2012 season as a possible reason for allowing Farrell to leave the team. Another reason may have been giving Farrell a multi-year extension, when the Blue Jays have not performed well under his leadership.
Baseball managers, statistically, may directly influence 3 to 5 games a season. Great managers seem to get the most "intangibles" out of their rosters on a daily basis. Good managers seem to keep a team on an even keel and usually wind up at .500. Bad managers compound their team's weaknesses and usually do not stay around long enough to right the ship.
Farrell goes to a team, the Red Sox, that used to have the resources to buy free agents and push for the playoffs. The Red Sox traded away $250 million in contract obligations to the Dodgers. There is no indication that the Red Sox will turn around and spend that money in free agency this off season. Farrell may be stuck with the same roster as Valentine.
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