The early market for starting pitching seems to be soft at the upper tier.
MLB.com reports that Johnny Cueto turned down a six-year, $120 million offer from the
Diamondbacks. On an average annual value basis, that would come in $2
million per year under what Jordan Zimmerman will allegedly sign with the Tigers, at 5 years/$110 million.
With J.A. Happ leading the second tier starters at 3 years/$36 million, there is caution so far in free agency. It may pick up in two weeks at the Winter Meetings.
With pitchers who declined a qualifying offer of $15.6 million, the club that signs them loses a first round draft selection. Pitchers like Jeff Samardzija may believe they they are worth $16 million plus per season, but other teams may balk at the double cost.
Zimmerman's annual cost is $22 million.
Cueto turned down $20 million.
These two are in the top tier four with Price and Greinke.
We expect the top market to round out at $22-25 million per year.
Happ is a second tier starter at an annual cost of $13 million. He did not have a qualifying offer tag.
This means the second tier market will probably shake out to $12-18 million per year.
Showing posts with label Diamondbacks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Diamondbacks. Show all posts
November 30, 2015
June 22, 2015
TRADE ODDITY
CBSSports reports that the Diamondbacks dealt right-handed starter Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint (their No. 5 prospect) to the Braves in a three-player deal on Saturday. In exchange, the Braves will be sending infielder Phil Gosselin to the Diamondbacks.
The oddity of this transaction is that the core players in the deal are on the disabled list with serious injuries.
Arroyo made 14 starts for Arizona in 2014 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has yet to pitch this year, and is not expected back until at least August. Arroyo's contract is for $9.5 million for this year, and a $4.5 million buyout on a $13 million option for 2016, per FoxSports.com.
Meanwhile, Gosselin underwent surgery to repair a fractured thumb in May. He is currently on the disabled list and holds a .325 batting average in 40 at-bats this year.
Toussaint was a first-round draft pick (16th overall) by the Diamondbacks in 2014. The right-hander has been pitching with Class A Kane County this year, posting a 3.69 ERA through seven starts.
The Diamondbacks like their current pitching depth to trade Toussaint in the deal.
"We are getting some good pitching from our young rotation and that's the direction we are going to go," D-Backs general manager Dave Stewart said.
The oddity of this transaction is that the core players in the deal are on the disabled list with serious injuries.
Arroyo made 14 starts for Arizona in 2014 before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He has yet to pitch this year, and is not expected back until at least August. Arroyo's contract is for $9.5 million for this year, and a $4.5 million buyout on a $13 million option for 2016, per FoxSports.com.
Meanwhile, Gosselin underwent surgery to repair a fractured thumb in May. He is currently on the disabled list and holds a .325 batting average in 40 at-bats this year.
Toussaint was a first-round draft pick (16th overall) by the Diamondbacks in 2014. The right-hander has been pitching with Class A Kane County this year, posting a 3.69 ERA through seven starts.
The Diamondbacks like their current pitching depth to trade Toussaint in the deal.
"We are getting some good pitching from our young rotation and that's the direction we are going to go," D-Backs general manager Dave Stewart said.
December 5, 2014
PULLING THE TRIGGER
Everyone knew the Yankees were in the market for a shortstop replacement. We thought that the Cubs would be an ample trading partner for the Yankees. For whatever reason, nothing gelled in that regard because the Yankees apparently found their replacement middle infielder.
The Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius from the Diamondbacks in a three way trade with Tigers. Gregoriusis a typical good glove weak bat shortstop. But he has major league experience.
The Tigers get a fifth starter in pitcher Shane Green. In his short career, he is about an average major league starter which is okay in the back of a deep rotation.
The Diamondbacks get two players: lefty Robbie Ray, who last year posted a 1.59 ERA through is first five starts at Triple-A, with a 21/5 K/BB ratio in 28 innings, showing his promise, but he is not a flawless prospect, and shortstop Domingo Leyba from the Tigers. He’s only 19 and hasn’t played above A-ball, but he hit very well across two levels in 67 games last season. In leagues in which he was very young.
Apparently, the Yankees were eager to get a deal to solidify their shortstop position before the winter meetings. If the Cubs were inclined to trade a surplus middle infielder to a team that really needed one, this could be a missed opportunity.
The Yankees acquired Didi Gregorius from the Diamondbacks in a three way trade with Tigers. Gregoriusis a typical good glove weak bat shortstop. But he has major league experience.
The Tigers get a fifth starter in pitcher Shane Green. In his short career, he is about an average major league starter which is okay in the back of a deep rotation.
The Diamondbacks get two players: lefty Robbie Ray, who last year posted a 1.59 ERA through is first five starts at Triple-A, with a 21/5 K/BB ratio in 28 innings, showing his promise, but he is not a flawless prospect, and shortstop Domingo Leyba from the Tigers. He’s only 19 and hasn’t played above A-ball, but he hit very well across two levels in 67 games last season. In leagues in which he was very young.
Apparently, the Yankees were eager to get a deal to solidify their shortstop position before the winter meetings. If the Cubs were inclined to trade a surplus middle infielder to a team that really needed one, this could be a missed opportunity.
August 16, 2014
BEWARE VAULTED PROSPECTS
MLBTR reports that the Diamondbacks have acquired Cubs former first-round pick and top prospect Brett Jackson for minor league reliever Blake Cooper.
Jackson, 26, rated as one of the game’s top 100 prospects from
2010-12, according to both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus (he
topped out at No. 32 on BA’s list and No. 44 on BP’s list). Jackson was sold as a "five tool" player - - - hit for average, power, with speed and very good defensive skills. When his
stock was at its highest, BA likened him to Jim Edmonds,
noting that he had that type of ceiling at the plate, if not that type
of Gold Glove caliber defense in center field.
However, Jackson’s swing-and-miss tendencies caused his stock to plummet, as a problem he looked to have eliminated at the Double-A level resurfaced in Triple-A and still has yet to be corrected. Jackson was batting just .210/.298/.348 with a 37.3 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Iowa this season and will look to deliver on some of his once sky-high potential in a new organization.
Jackson only had a brief stint in the majors. In 2012, he was called up and played in 44 games. In 142 plate appearances, he hit .175, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 59K, 22 BB for a 0.1 WAR. His strike out rate of 41.6 percent led to his permanent demotion. Jackson quickly faded off the Cubs top prospects list, and at one point was further demoted to AA. Like many other touted "can't miss" prospects, Jackson never filled his potential. This appears to be a change of scenery move to clear a 40 man roster space for the Cubs.
Cooper, also 26, was a 12th-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2010 and reached Triple-A for the first time in 2014. Though he’s struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings there, Cooper was excellent at Double-A this year, posting a 1.85 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 frames. His command has faltered since moving up to the top minor league level, as he’s walked 17 hitters in his 24 innings at Reno. The 5’11″, 190-pound righty has never ranked among Arizona’s top 30 prospects, according to BA, and he didn’t rank on MLB.com’s midseason list of the D’Backs’ top 20 prospects either. In parts of five minor league seasons, Cooper has a 3.27 ERA with a 217-to-98 K/BB ratio (seven of those free passes were intentional) in 236 2/3 innings.
There is caution in this trade story. Javy Baez continues to rack up strike outs. In 45 plate appearances, he has 17 Ks for a rate of 37.8 percent, which is too high for a major league player. The pressure to conform and adjust to major league pitching doomed Jackson's fate. He could not cut down on his strikeouts which torpedoed his value as a hitter. Baez is currently in the same audition mode as Jackson had in 2012.
However, Jackson’s swing-and-miss tendencies caused his stock to plummet, as a problem he looked to have eliminated at the Double-A level resurfaced in Triple-A and still has yet to be corrected. Jackson was batting just .210/.298/.348 with a 37.3 percent strikeout rate for Triple-A Iowa this season and will look to deliver on some of his once sky-high potential in a new organization.
Jackson only had a brief stint in the majors. In 2012, he was called up and played in 44 games. In 142 plate appearances, he hit .175, 4 HR, 9 RBI, 59K, 22 BB for a 0.1 WAR. His strike out rate of 41.6 percent led to his permanent demotion. Jackson quickly faded off the Cubs top prospects list, and at one point was further demoted to AA. Like many other touted "can't miss" prospects, Jackson never filled his potential. This appears to be a change of scenery move to clear a 40 man roster space for the Cubs.
Cooper, also 26, was a 12th-round pick by the Diamondbacks in 2010 and reached Triple-A for the first time in 2014. Though he’s struggled to a 6.00 ERA in 24 innings there, Cooper was excellent at Double-A this year, posting a 1.85 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 in 34 frames. His command has faltered since moving up to the top minor league level, as he’s walked 17 hitters in his 24 innings at Reno. The 5’11″, 190-pound righty has never ranked among Arizona’s top 30 prospects, according to BA, and he didn’t rank on MLB.com’s midseason list of the D’Backs’ top 20 prospects either. In parts of five minor league seasons, Cooper has a 3.27 ERA with a 217-to-98 K/BB ratio (seven of those free passes were intentional) in 236 2/3 innings.
There is caution in this trade story. Javy Baez continues to rack up strike outs. In 45 plate appearances, he has 17 Ks for a rate of 37.8 percent, which is too high for a major league player. The pressure to conform and adjust to major league pitching doomed Jackson's fate. He could not cut down on his strikeouts which torpedoed his value as a hitter. Baez is currently in the same audition mode as Jackson had in 2012.
December 26, 2013
THE PRIZE
After a lot of internal angst and anger over the new posting fee system with MLB, Japanese right-hander Masahiro Tanaka, who
went 24-0 with a 1.27 ERA and 183 strikeouts in 212 innings this past
summer for the Rakuten Golden Eagles of Nippon Professional Baseball, was "posted" (free to negotiate with American teams) on Tuesday evening to pursue his dream of pitching at baseball's highest level.
Tanaka, 25, has impressive numbers in Japanese baseball. In 7 seasons as a starter, he has compiled a record in 175 games 99-35 (.739 win percentage), 2.30 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 IP, 4.5 K/BB ratio.
His old team will receive $20 million posting fee if Tanaka signs with a MLB club.
Tanaka is expected to ask for approximately $100 million deal. This will blow past the record 6 year/$58 million contract with the Rangers (plus the $51.5 million post fee).
Darvish has been one of the few exceptions to the general rule in regard to Japanese baseball players coming over to make an impact in the game. Irchiro had a stellar career in the States, but it more often than not that pitchers tend to struggle unless they have major league power velocity.
The Cubs, Diamondbacks and Angels are rumored suitors for Tanaka, but do not count out the Yankees or Dodgers deep pockets from making a bid.
The Cubs claim they will aggressively seek Tanaka, but every time they attempt a major signing during the rebuilding process, nothing came of it. The statement that the Cubs will bid on Tanaka is meaningless because one can submit a confidential low ball bid, then tell the fans later that it was not accepted. It is a weak attempt for positive winter PR.
Tanaka's U.S. agent also represents the Dodgers Kershaw and Greinke which leads some to speculate that LA will have an inside track on signing Tanaka.
Tanaka, 25, has impressive numbers in Japanese baseball. In 7 seasons as a starter, he has compiled a record in 175 games 99-35 (.739 win percentage), 2.30 ERA, 1.108 WHIP, 8.5 K/9 IP, 4.5 K/BB ratio.
His old team will receive $20 million posting fee if Tanaka signs with a MLB club.
Tanaka is expected to ask for approximately $100 million deal. This will blow past the record 6 year/$58 million contract with the Rangers (plus the $51.5 million post fee).
Darvish has been one of the few exceptions to the general rule in regard to Japanese baseball players coming over to make an impact in the game. Irchiro had a stellar career in the States, but it more often than not that pitchers tend to struggle unless they have major league power velocity.
The Cubs, Diamondbacks and Angels are rumored suitors for Tanaka, but do not count out the Yankees or Dodgers deep pockets from making a bid.
The Cubs claim they will aggressively seek Tanaka, but every time they attempt a major signing during the rebuilding process, nothing came of it. The statement that the Cubs will bid on Tanaka is meaningless because one can submit a confidential low ball bid, then tell the fans later that it was not accepted. It is a weak attempt for positive winter PR.
Tanaka's U.S. agent also represents the Dodgers Kershaw and Greinke which leads some to speculate that LA will have an inside track on signing Tanaka.
December 16, 2013
ANOTHER BOLD MOVE
Kenny Williams used to be called a gambler when he was the White Sox GM. His replacement, Rick Hahn, is also not afraid to pull the trigger on a trade that may raise some eyebrows.
The White traded closer Addison Reed to the Diamondbacks in exchange for 22-year-old third baseman Matt Davidson.
Reed, 24, has saved 69 games for the White Sox over the past two seasons, posting a 4.20 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 126 1/3 innings in that time. The Diamondbacks will control Reed through the 2017 season and he is not arbitration eligible until next offseason, making him a highly affordable piece to add to the back-end of their bullpen. Reed will be the Arizona closer, displacing J.J. Putz and Brad Ziegler for that role.
Davidson, who was ranked the Diamondbacks #2 prospect, made his big league debut in 2013, slashing .237/.333/.434 with three homers in 87 plate appearances. The 2009 supplemental-rounder entered the 2013 campaign ranked as Baseball America's No. 88 overall prospect and MLB.com's No. 77 overall prospect. Davidson delivered on that praise by slashing .280/.350/.481 with 17 homers in 500 plate appearances prior to his promotion to the big leagues. He is controllable through the 2019 season and can't reach arbitration eligibility until at least the 2016-17 offseason.
The White Sox have had a hole at third base for a long time. Whether Davidson will win the job in spring training, or whether the team will push through another year of a Conor Gillaspie/Jeff Keppinger platoon will be a short term issue. Hahn is now banking on Davidson to be the long term solution for third base.
It is strange to trade the team's established closer for a nearly major league ready prospect with less than 100 major league at-bats. But filling a third base hole has created another issue for the White Sox: closer. The team will have to sign another bullpen arm or by default give the role to Nate Jones, who has yet to post a save in his major league career.
The White traded closer Addison Reed to the Diamondbacks in exchange for 22-year-old third baseman Matt Davidson.
Reed, 24, has saved 69 games for the White Sox over the past two seasons, posting a 4.20 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in 126 1/3 innings in that time. The Diamondbacks will control Reed through the 2017 season and he is not arbitration eligible until next offseason, making him a highly affordable piece to add to the back-end of their bullpen. Reed will be the Arizona closer, displacing J.J. Putz and Brad Ziegler for that role.
Davidson, who was ranked the Diamondbacks #2 prospect, made his big league debut in 2013, slashing .237/.333/.434 with three homers in 87 plate appearances. The 2009 supplemental-rounder entered the 2013 campaign ranked as Baseball America's No. 88 overall prospect and MLB.com's No. 77 overall prospect. Davidson delivered on that praise by slashing .280/.350/.481 with 17 homers in 500 plate appearances prior to his promotion to the big leagues. He is controllable through the 2019 season and can't reach arbitration eligibility until at least the 2016-17 offseason.
The White Sox have had a hole at third base for a long time. Whether Davidson will win the job in spring training, or whether the team will push through another year of a Conor Gillaspie/Jeff Keppinger platoon will be a short term issue. Hahn is now banking on Davidson to be the long term solution for third base.
It is strange to trade the team's established closer for a nearly major league ready prospect with less than 100 major league at-bats. But filling a third base hole has created another issue for the White Sox: closer. The team will have to sign another bullpen arm or by default give the role to Nate Jones, who has yet to post a save in his major league career.
December 10, 2013
NOT A GREAT MOVE
MLBTR pieces together the parts of a three team trade involving the White Sox.
The White Sox received CF Adam Eaton from the Diamondbacks. Formerly one of baseball's top prospects, the 25-year-old Eaton missed more than half of the 2013 season after opening the year on the DL with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left (throwing) elbow. In 380 career MLB plate apparances, Eaton is a .254/.332/.373 hitter with five homers and seven stolen bases. He's batted .365/.441/.522 with eight homers and 38 steals in 602 career appearances at the Triple-A level. Prior to the 2013 season, Baseball America ranked Eaton as Arizona's No. 4 prospect, noting that he'd made enough defensive strides to convince scouts that he is an everyday big league center fielder with double-digit home run pop, plus speed and a strong, accurate throwing arm. He is under team control through the 2018 season.
The White Sox gave up LH starting pitcher Hector Santiago, who will join the Angels. Santiago, who turns 26 next week, has a career 3.41 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 37.5 percent ground-ball rate in 224 2/3 big league innings. He's not arbitration eligible until next winter and can be controlled through the 2017 campaign
The Diamondbacks will receive outfielder Mark Trumbo and right-hander A.J. Schugel from the Angels. Arizona will be looking for Trumbo's power to outweigh his shaky defense; he's belted 66 home runs over the past two seasons, posting a .250/.305/.471 batting line. While Trumbo's walk rate climbed to a career-best eight percent in 2013, that's still below the league average, and it came along with a career-worst 27.1 percent strikeout rate. Trumbo hit 34 homers last season. Trumbo projects to earn $4.7MM via arbitration this offseason and can be controlled through the 2016 season.
Schugel dealt with blisters early in the season and saw a foot injury cut his season short in July after he posted a 7.05 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 89 1/3 innings at Triple-A Salt Lake. However, he posted a 2.89 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 140 innings at Double-A when he was healthy in 2012. Baseball America ranked Schugel 12th among Angels prospects prior to 2013, noting that a strong fastball/changeup combo should allow him to become a back-of-the-rotation starter despite a questionable breaking pitch. BA also noted that Schugel is an excellent athlete that fields his position well.
The Angels will also receive LH pitcher Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs appeared in the Top 15 of BA's Top 100 list prior to the 2012 and 2013 seasons but has struggled in his brief big league experience to date. Still just 22, Skaggs has a 5.43 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in 68 Major League innings. He has a 4.02 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 156 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level -- all of which have come with him being one of the league's youngest pitchers. Skaggs won't be eligible for arbitration until at least 2016 and can be controlled through the 2019 campaign if he's in the Majors from here on out.
Eaton has only played 88 games in two seasons. He has a .254 BA, 5 HR, 27 RBI and 0.7 WAR. In contrast, Santiago has played in 78 games, posted an 8-10 record, 3.41 ERA, 1.358 WHIP and 4.6 WAR. The White Sox are trading a replacement level player with "potential" for a young starting left handed pitcher. I don't it was a very good deal for the White Sox considering their are other center fielders on the market such as Denard Span, 29, who has a career 15.0 WAR over 6 seasons. Span is a more expensive alternative, but he has lead off potential with the ability to steal bases.
The White Sox received CF Adam Eaton from the Diamondbacks. Formerly one of baseball's top prospects, the 25-year-old Eaton missed more than half of the 2013 season after opening the year on the DL with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament in his left (throwing) elbow. In 380 career MLB plate apparances, Eaton is a .254/.332/.373 hitter with five homers and seven stolen bases. He's batted .365/.441/.522 with eight homers and 38 steals in 602 career appearances at the Triple-A level. Prior to the 2013 season, Baseball America ranked Eaton as Arizona's No. 4 prospect, noting that he'd made enough defensive strides to convince scouts that he is an everyday big league center fielder with double-digit home run pop, plus speed and a strong, accurate throwing arm. He is under team control through the 2018 season.
The White Sox gave up LH starting pitcher Hector Santiago, who will join the Angels. Santiago, who turns 26 next week, has a career 3.41 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 37.5 percent ground-ball rate in 224 2/3 big league innings. He's not arbitration eligible until next winter and can be controlled through the 2017 campaign
The Diamondbacks will receive outfielder Mark Trumbo and right-hander A.J. Schugel from the Angels. Arizona will be looking for Trumbo's power to outweigh his shaky defense; he's belted 66 home runs over the past two seasons, posting a .250/.305/.471 batting line. While Trumbo's walk rate climbed to a career-best eight percent in 2013, that's still below the league average, and it came along with a career-worst 27.1 percent strikeout rate. Trumbo hit 34 homers last season. Trumbo projects to earn $4.7MM via arbitration this offseason and can be controlled through the 2016 season.
Schugel dealt with blisters early in the season and saw a foot injury cut his season short in July after he posted a 7.05 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 89 1/3 innings at Triple-A Salt Lake. However, he posted a 2.89 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in 140 innings at Double-A when he was healthy in 2012. Baseball America ranked Schugel 12th among Angels prospects prior to 2013, noting that a strong fastball/changeup combo should allow him to become a back-of-the-rotation starter despite a questionable breaking pitch. BA also noted that Schugel is an excellent athlete that fields his position well.
The Angels will also receive LH pitcher Tyler Skaggs. Skaggs appeared in the Top 15 of BA's Top 100 list prior to the 2012 and 2013 seasons but has struggled in his brief big league experience to date. Still just 22, Skaggs has a 5.43 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.7 BB/9 and a 40 percent ground-ball rate in 68 Major League innings. He has a 4.02 ERA with 8.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 in 156 2/3 innings at the Triple-A level -- all of which have come with him being one of the league's youngest pitchers. Skaggs won't be eligible for arbitration until at least 2016 and can be controlled through the 2019 campaign if he's in the Majors from here on out.
Eaton has only played 88 games in two seasons. He has a .254 BA, 5 HR, 27 RBI and 0.7 WAR. In contrast, Santiago has played in 78 games, posted an 8-10 record, 3.41 ERA, 1.358 WHIP and 4.6 WAR. The White Sox are trading a replacement level player with "potential" for a young starting left handed pitcher. I don't it was a very good deal for the White Sox considering their are other center fielders on the market such as Denard Span, 29, who has a career 15.0 WAR over 6 seasons. Span is a more expensive alternative, but he has lead off potential with the ability to steal bases.
November 18, 2013
EARLY TRADE RUMORS
Jeff Samardzija appears to be a hot topic as the off-season trade market opens for business.
The Nationals seem to be on the Shark hunt. The Diamondbacks inquired before July's deadline.
The Nationals are probably better suited for a Cub trade. And this would be an easy one: CF Denard Span and LHP Ian Krol for Samardzija.
Span, 29, hit .279, 20 SB and 2.4 WAR for the Nationals last season. He would upgrade the lead-off spot for the Cubs and roam centerfield for the next two years at $15.5 million.
Krol, 22, a local kid from Naperville, IL, pitched 32 games in relief going 2-1, 3.95 ERA, 1.311 WHIP. He could move into the 5th starter role like Travis Wood did a few seasons ago.
If the Cubs are going to trade a starter, the team needs to get back manageable starters in return. Span would be under team control through 2015 so he won't block any prospect's promotion. Krol is young enough to contribute long term to the pitching staff since the Cubs don't have any minor league starter ready to make a permanent starter assignment. (Kyle Hendricks is probably the closest, but he was in Class AA last season.)
A Diamondback trade would most likely return more low level prospects.
The 40 man Snake roster has Randall Delgado, a pitcher who was going to part of the Dempster to Atlanta deal that fell a part. The D-Backs also have ex-Cub Tony Campana or another small OF in Adam Eaton as possible trade chips. A Samardzija for Delgado and Eaton trade seems to be less upside than the Nationals one above.
The Diamondbacks also have some interest in OF Nate Schierholtz, who could be packaged with Samardzija or traded alone. Arizona has payroll limitations bearing down on 2014 so Schierholtz fits in their outfield rotation at a reasonable cost. The more the Cubs could package to the Diamondbacks, the more talent the team should receive in return.
The D-Backs are not parting with number one prospect, Archie Bradley. However, No.4 prospect, RHP Braden Shipley or No. 5 prospect, LHP David Holmberg would be interesting prospects. Shipley played in A ball while Holmberg excelled in AA.
Also add the Blue Jays to the mix. The team has signaled it wants to be more active in the trade market than the free agent market this off-season. The Jays have targeted need areas of starting pitching, catcher and second base.
The Nationals seem to be on the Shark hunt. The Diamondbacks inquired before July's deadline.
The Nationals are probably better suited for a Cub trade. And this would be an easy one: CF Denard Span and LHP Ian Krol for Samardzija.
Span, 29, hit .279, 20 SB and 2.4 WAR for the Nationals last season. He would upgrade the lead-off spot for the Cubs and roam centerfield for the next two years at $15.5 million.
Krol, 22, a local kid from Naperville, IL, pitched 32 games in relief going 2-1, 3.95 ERA, 1.311 WHIP. He could move into the 5th starter role like Travis Wood did a few seasons ago.
If the Cubs are going to trade a starter, the team needs to get back manageable starters in return. Span would be under team control through 2015 so he won't block any prospect's promotion. Krol is young enough to contribute long term to the pitching staff since the Cubs don't have any minor league starter ready to make a permanent starter assignment. (Kyle Hendricks is probably the closest, but he was in Class AA last season.)
A Diamondback trade would most likely return more low level prospects.
The 40 man Snake roster has Randall Delgado, a pitcher who was going to part of the Dempster to Atlanta deal that fell a part. The D-Backs also have ex-Cub Tony Campana or another small OF in Adam Eaton as possible trade chips. A Samardzija for Delgado and Eaton trade seems to be less upside than the Nationals one above.
The Diamondbacks also have some interest in OF Nate Schierholtz, who could be packaged with Samardzija or traded alone. Arizona has payroll limitations bearing down on 2014 so Schierholtz fits in their outfield rotation at a reasonable cost. The more the Cubs could package to the Diamondbacks, the more talent the team should receive in return.
The D-Backs are not parting with number one prospect, Archie Bradley. However, No.4 prospect, RHP Braden Shipley or No. 5 prospect, LHP David Holmberg would be interesting prospects. Shipley played in A ball while Holmberg excelled in AA.
Also add the Blue Jays to the mix. The team has signaled it wants to be more active in the trade market than the free agent market this off-season. The Jays have targeted need areas of starting pitching, catcher and second base.
January 11, 2013
UP UP UPTON AND AWAY
Arizona has a problem. It has too many outfielders, which in most circumstances, is a good problem.
The Associated Press reported this morning that Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton vetoed a trade to the Seattle Mariners, a person with knowledge of the situation said Thursday.
Upton's contract gave him the power to turn down a trade to a short list of cities, Seattle included.
The Diamondbacks have a glut of outfielders and Upton, a former All-Star, is by far the most marketable. He is coming off a subpar season in which he was bothered by a thumb injury.
Upton's rejection of the trade first was reported by FoxSports.com, which said Seattle offered four players in the deal - relievers Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor, infield prospect Nick Franklin, and one of three pitching prospects; James Paxton, Danny Hultzen or Taijuan Walker.
From the Mariner's web pages:
Walker is the Mariner's #1 prospect. The way Walker pitched in his first full season, in 2011, helped the Mariners forget they didn't have a first-round pick in 2010. The SoCal high school product was a multi-sport star and, as a result, is really focusing on pitching full time for the first time as a professional. So far, so good, as Walker was dominant in the Arizona League in 2010 and the Midwest League in ’11 and then held his own in ’12 at Double-A Jackson, where he pitched most of the season at age 19. The stuff is there, with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and excellent curve. His change-up is rapidly improving. That three-pitch mix, his size and athleticism could all add up to a front line starter in the future.
Hultzen is a lefty handed starter and the Mariners #2 prospect. While most thought Seattle would go after Anthony Rendon with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2011 Draft, the Mariners had their sights set on Hultzen all along. The University of Virginia product is the kind of college lefty expected to move quickly, but he's more than just a command/pitchability type. Hultzen's velocity increased in his junior season, giving him a plus fastball from the left side as well as a plus changeup. His slider isn't quite as good as those first two, but it's a serviceable pitch and Hultzen will work to improve it. He has indeed moved quickly through the Mariners system, pitching in the Arizona Fall League in 2011, then Double-A and Triple-A in his first full season in 2012.
Paxton is another lefty starter and ranked the Mariners #5 prospect. Paxton didn't sign with the Mariners until March 2011, but he made up for lost time quickly by double-jumping from Class A to Double-A during the season, pitching well at both levels. He followed that up with a very solid season at Double-A Jackson. Paxton's two best pitches are his fastball, a truly plus offering he can crank up into the upper 90s, and an excellent power breaking ball. The improvement he's shown with his changeup is a big reason the Mariners are even more excited about his potential as a Major League starter. He was shut down a bit early in 2011, more as a precaution than anything, and he missed the month of June in 2012 with a sore right knee, but, assuming he's healthy, seeing him in Seattle's rotation soon is not out of the question.
Franklin is the team's #3 prospect. The switch hitting shortstop has made an impression. After going 20-20 in his first full season, everyone was excited to see what Franklin would do in year No. 2 with the Mariners. But the 2011 season really never got going full-bore for the infielder because he was hit in the face with a bat during batting practice in June. He did eventually return and played well in the Arizona Fall League, named the No. 14 prospect there by MLB.com. He then hit .322 over 57 games at Double-A Jackson to start the 2012 season before being bumped up to Tacoma, where he split time evenly between shortstop and second base, perhaps signalling the beginning of his transition away from short.
Furbush is a lefty reliever that went 5-2, 2.72 ERA in 48 games for Seattle last season. Pryor was also a reliever who went 3-1, 3.91 ERA in 26 games last season.
The package from the Mariners was two good middle relievers plus two of their top 5 prospects in return for Upton.
The reason for the high cost is that Upton is just 25 years old, Upton has played five full major league seasons, so his best years could well be ahead of him. Last season he hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBIs but did score a career-high 107 runs. In 2011, while helping Arizona to its surprising NL West crown, Upton hit .289, with 31 home runs and 88 RBIs, the latter two categories are career bests. Overall, he's a career .278 hitter with 108 home runs.
The younger brother of major leaguer B.J. Upton, Justin was the first overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. He has three years and $38.5 million left on his contract, making him highly affordable by today's salary standards.
The Cubs do not have the top pitching prospects to turn a deal for a player like Upton. The Cubs list their top five prospects as Baez, Almora, B. Jackson, A. Vizcaino (who is injured) and Soler. Of those prospects, only Baez seems to be blocked by Castro. However, Baez has more upside than the other four. As for major league ready relief pitchers, only Russell would seem to fill that role for other clubs.
The Associated Press reported this morning that Diamondbacks right fielder Justin Upton vetoed a trade to the Seattle Mariners, a person with knowledge of the situation said Thursday.
Upton's contract gave him the power to turn down a trade to a short list of cities, Seattle included.
The Diamondbacks have a glut of outfielders and Upton, a former All-Star, is by far the most marketable. He is coming off a subpar season in which he was bothered by a thumb injury.
Upton's rejection of the trade first was reported by FoxSports.com, which said Seattle offered four players in the deal - relievers Charlie Furbush and Stephen Pryor, infield prospect Nick Franklin, and one of three pitching prospects; James Paxton, Danny Hultzen or Taijuan Walker.
From the Mariner's web pages:
Walker is the Mariner's #1 prospect. The way Walker pitched in his first full season, in 2011, helped the Mariners forget they didn't have a first-round pick in 2010. The SoCal high school product was a multi-sport star and, as a result, is really focusing on pitching full time for the first time as a professional. So far, so good, as Walker was dominant in the Arizona League in 2010 and the Midwest League in ’11 and then held his own in ’12 at Double-A Jackson, where he pitched most of the season at age 19. The stuff is there, with a mid-to-high 90s fastball and excellent curve. His change-up is rapidly improving. That three-pitch mix, his size and athleticism could all add up to a front line starter in the future.
Hultzen is a lefty handed starter and the Mariners #2 prospect. While most thought Seattle would go after Anthony Rendon with the No. 2 overall pick of the 2011 Draft, the Mariners had their sights set on Hultzen all along. The University of Virginia product is the kind of college lefty expected to move quickly, but he's more than just a command/pitchability type. Hultzen's velocity increased in his junior season, giving him a plus fastball from the left side as well as a plus changeup. His slider isn't quite as good as those first two, but it's a serviceable pitch and Hultzen will work to improve it. He has indeed moved quickly through the Mariners system, pitching in the Arizona Fall League in 2011, then Double-A and Triple-A in his first full season in 2012.
Paxton is another lefty starter and ranked the Mariners #5 prospect. Paxton didn't sign with the Mariners until March 2011, but he made up for lost time quickly by double-jumping from Class A to Double-A during the season, pitching well at both levels. He followed that up with a very solid season at Double-A Jackson. Paxton's two best pitches are his fastball, a truly plus offering he can crank up into the upper 90s, and an excellent power breaking ball. The improvement he's shown with his changeup is a big reason the Mariners are even more excited about his potential as a Major League starter. He was shut down a bit early in 2011, more as a precaution than anything, and he missed the month of June in 2012 with a sore right knee, but, assuming he's healthy, seeing him in Seattle's rotation soon is not out of the question.
Franklin is the team's #3 prospect. The switch hitting shortstop has made an impression. After going 20-20 in his first full season, everyone was excited to see what Franklin would do in year No. 2 with the Mariners. But the 2011 season really never got going full-bore for the infielder because he was hit in the face with a bat during batting practice in June. He did eventually return and played well in the Arizona Fall League, named the No. 14 prospect there by MLB.com. He then hit .322 over 57 games at Double-A Jackson to start the 2012 season before being bumped up to Tacoma, where he split time evenly between shortstop and second base, perhaps signalling the beginning of his transition away from short.
Furbush is a lefty reliever that went 5-2, 2.72 ERA in 48 games for Seattle last season. Pryor was also a reliever who went 3-1, 3.91 ERA in 26 games last season.
The package from the Mariners was two good middle relievers plus two of their top 5 prospects in return for Upton.
The reason for the high cost is that Upton is just 25 years old, Upton has played five full major league seasons, so his best years could well be ahead of him. Last season he hit .280 with 17 home runs and 67 RBIs but did score a career-high 107 runs. In 2011, while helping Arizona to its surprising NL West crown, Upton hit .289, with 31 home runs and 88 RBIs, the latter two categories are career bests. Overall, he's a career .278 hitter with 108 home runs.
The younger brother of major leaguer B.J. Upton, Justin was the first overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft. He has three years and $38.5 million left on his contract, making him highly affordable by today's salary standards.
The Cubs do not have the top pitching prospects to turn a deal for a player like Upton. The Cubs list their top five prospects as Baez, Almora, B. Jackson, A. Vizcaino (who is injured) and Soler. Of those prospects, only Baez seems to be blocked by Castro. However, Baez has more upside than the other four. As for major league ready relief pitchers, only Russell would seem to fill that role for other clubs.
November 16, 2012
WAR ON STATS
A favorite stat for people to debate the value of baseball players is WAR. WAR stands for Wins Above Replacement. A player's WAR number is supposed to represent the number of team wins the player has added to the team total above that of a AAA-AAAA replacement player. The calculation includes factors for defensive support and value for high leverage or more difficult positions and situations.
The components in the WAR calculation track how much above "average" a player was during a season. But the WAR number itself is Wins Above Replacement. It has been said that the difference between an average player and a replacement level player is about 20 runs during a full season. The runs-to-wins is put through a conversion formula (typically, 10 runs equals 1 win).
This is fine to attempt the judge the value of individual players in an average talent pool. But baseball is still a team sport relying upon individuals to get wins.
Which led me to check on the 2012 season from a team perspective.
The San Francisco Giants won the World Series. The regular season record was 94-68. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
28.9 hitter WAR + 5.5 pitcher WAR = 34.4 team WAR.
Then the question, what is an "average" baseball team? In a 162 game season, it is simple. A team that goes .500 (81-81) is average. Two teams ended 2012 at .500: Arizona and Philadelphia.
The Diamondbacks season record was 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
17.7 hitter WAR + 13.3 pitcher WAR = 31.0 team WAR.
The Phils also finished the season 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
15.0 hitter WAR + 10.8 pitcher WAR = 25.8 team WAR.
If we compare the World Series champion Giants to the Diamondbacks and Phils team WARS, the Giants team was +3.4 WAR better than Arizona and +8.6 WAR better than Philadelphia.
Since we have "two" average teams, if we average the team WARs (56.8/2) the average team WAR is 28.4. If you compare the average team WAR of 28.4 to the Giants team 34.4, one can calculate that the Giants as a team were 21 percent better than an average major league team in 2012.
If you compare that to victories, the Giants were +13, or 16 percent above an average .500 team.
Now for the other end of the standings.
The Chicago Cubs had a bad rebuilding season. The team 2012 record was 61-101. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers for the Cubs you will find:
11.8 hitter WAR + (0.1) pitcher WAR = 11.7 team WAR.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the Giants team WAR of 34.4, the Cubs are -22.7 WAR. That means the Cubs were 66 percent worse than the Giants.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the average .500 club WAR of 28.4 WAR, the Cubs are -16.7. That means the Cubs were 58.8 percent worse than an average team in 2012.
So how far are the Cubs away from being a competitive ball club?
The WAR scale for players indicates that one who is 8.0 WAR plus is an MVP type player; 5.0 WAR plus is an All-Star caliber player; 2.0 WAR plus is a starter; 0-2 WAR is a bench player; and below 0 is replacement level.
The highest WAR player on the roster is Darwin Barney at 4.6, then Starlin Castro at 3.5, then Ryan Dempster at 3.3 (who is no longer on the team) and then Anthony Rizzo at 2.2. Barney's WAR has to be skewed by his defense error less streak. Even so, based on the WAR player scale, the Cubs only have three starters on their 25 man roster, and not one is of All-Star caliber.
In order for the Cubs to competitive, the team needs double digit WAR numbers for hitting and pitching. The team needs to add 11 players of 2.0 WAR and above (6 fielders and 5 starters) just to become an average team in 2013.
The components in the WAR calculation track how much above "average" a player was during a season. But the WAR number itself is Wins Above Replacement. It has been said that the difference between an average player and a replacement level player is about 20 runs during a full season. The runs-to-wins is put through a conversion formula (typically, 10 runs equals 1 win).
This is fine to attempt the judge the value of individual players in an average talent pool. But baseball is still a team sport relying upon individuals to get wins.
Which led me to check on the 2012 season from a team perspective.
The San Francisco Giants won the World Series. The regular season record was 94-68. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
28.9 hitter WAR + 5.5 pitcher WAR = 34.4 team WAR.
Then the question, what is an "average" baseball team? In a 162 game season, it is simple. A team that goes .500 (81-81) is average. Two teams ended 2012 at .500: Arizona and Philadelphia.
The Diamondbacks season record was 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
17.7 hitter WAR + 13.3 pitcher WAR = 31.0 team WAR.
The Phils also finished the season 81-81. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers you will find:
15.0 hitter WAR + 10.8 pitcher WAR = 25.8 team WAR.
If we compare the World Series champion Giants to the Diamondbacks and Phils team WARS, the Giants team was +3.4 WAR better than Arizona and +8.6 WAR better than Philadelphia.
Since we have "two" average teams, if we average the team WARs (56.8/2) the average team WAR is 28.4. If you compare the average team WAR of 28.4 to the Giants team 34.4, one can calculate that the Giants as a team were 21 percent better than an average major league team in 2012.
If you compare that to victories, the Giants were +13, or 16 percent above an average .500 team.
Now for the other end of the standings.
The Chicago Cubs had a bad rebuilding season. The team 2012 record was 61-101. If you total up all the hitting and pitching player WAR numbers for the Cubs you will find:
11.8 hitter WAR + (0.1) pitcher WAR = 11.7 team WAR.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the Giants team WAR of 34.4, the Cubs are -22.7 WAR. That means the Cubs were 66 percent worse than the Giants.
If you compare the Cubs team WAR of 11.7 to the average .500 club WAR of 28.4 WAR, the Cubs are -16.7. That means the Cubs were 58.8 percent worse than an average team in 2012.
So how far are the Cubs away from being a competitive ball club?
The WAR scale for players indicates that one who is 8.0 WAR plus is an MVP type player; 5.0 WAR plus is an All-Star caliber player; 2.0 WAR plus is a starter; 0-2 WAR is a bench player; and below 0 is replacement level.
The highest WAR player on the roster is Darwin Barney at 4.6, then Starlin Castro at 3.5, then Ryan Dempster at 3.3 (who is no longer on the team) and then Anthony Rizzo at 2.2. Barney's WAR has to be skewed by his defense error less streak. Even so, based on the WAR player scale, the Cubs only have three starters on their 25 man roster, and not one is of All-Star caliber.
In order for the Cubs to competitive, the team needs double digit WAR numbers for hitting and pitching. The team needs to add 11 players of 2.0 WAR and above (6 fielders and 5 starters) just to become an average team in 2013.
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