There has been a recent debate on how well the Epstein Cubs Era is fairing this season. It seems the position depth has fallen off (and it is short by carrying an extra pitcher in the bullpen).
There are two independent factors at play on why the Cubs do not have a Dodger like minor league pipeline of quality starting players. First, is the ability to identify talent. Can your scouts and front office have the ability to see whether a high school or college player has "major league stuff." Second, is the ability to develop the talent's skills to major league levels. More people side on the the second factor as the reason that the Cubs farm system is devoid of talent. We have harped for years about the inability of the Epstein crew to draft, sign and develop a major league starting pitcher for the Cubs.
Looking at objective figures, is this true?
Between 2000 and 2011, 11.2 percent of minor league baseball players made it to the major leagues.
That seems to be the standard for which teams should be judged.
In regard to rounds prospects have been picked, a study showed the percentages of getting to the majors:
1st round: 66%
2nd round: 49%
3rd -5th rounds: 32%
6-10 rounds: 20%
11-20 rounds: 11%
21-40 rounds: 7%
The distribution seems to be clear: the best chance is to hit on your first 5 round picks every year, which would equal a 12.5% percentage hitting the major leagues per draft year.
What has happened in the Epstein Era drafts:
In 2012, only #1) Almora CF and #8) Bote SS have made it to the majors out of 43 picks.
In 2013, only #1) Bryant 3B and #2) Zastryzny LHP made it to the majors (with only Bryant a full time starter) out of 40 picks.
In 2014, only #1) Schwarber C and #3) Zagunis C made it to the majors (with Schwarber starting to lift his platoon status) out of 40 picks.
In 2015, only #1) Happ 2B made it to the majors (but now he has been demoted to AAA) out of 40 picks.
No one from the 2016, 2017 or 2018 drafts have made it to the Cubs major league roster.
If you only count 2012-2015 draft classes as the litmus test, only 7 of 163 selections made it to the Cubs major league roster (4.29%). If you only count full time starters, then only 2 of 163 selections made it to the Cubs major league roster (1.22%).
Clearly, the Cubs have underperformed the 11.2% standard for prospect to major league promotion.
Adbert Alzolay was signed as a amateur free agent in 2012. He has spent more than 6 years to get his chance on the Cubs major league roster. That is a long time (the maximum time limit) to control a minor league prospect. As of this writing, he had a good first long relief outing, and is expected to spot start against the Braves. He would be the first Theo signed pitching prospect to potentially stick on the roster (fingers crossed).
When you factor in the pool of amateur free agent signing across baseball (international), the objective standard actually falls to around 10% promotion rate. With all the Cub international signings, the team's success rate is probably below the 4.29% above.
Epstein's Cub prospect development and promotion rate is 62 % below the average MLB standard. If you score only 38% on your test paper, most would call that a failure.
