There has been a recent debate on how well the Epstein Cubs Era is fairing this season. It seems the position depth has fallen off (and it is short by carrying an extra pitcher in the bullpen).
There are two independent factors at play on why the Cubs do not have a Dodger like minor league pipeline of quality starting players. First, is the ability to identify talent. Can your scouts and front office have the ability to see whether a high school or college player has "major league stuff." Second, is the ability to develop the talent's skills to major league levels. More people side on the the second factor as the reason that the Cubs farm system is devoid of talent. We have harped for years about the inability of the Epstein crew to draft, sign and develop a major league starting pitcher for the Cubs.
Looking at objective figures, is this true?
Between 2000 and 2011, 11.2 percent of minor league baseball players made it to the major leagues.
That seems to be the standard for which teams should be judged.
In regard to rounds prospects have been picked, a study showed the percentages of getting to the majors:
1st round: 66%
2nd round: 49%
3rd -5th rounds: 32%
6-10 rounds: 20%
11-20 rounds: 11%
21-40 rounds: 7%
The distribution seems to be clear: the best chance is to hit on your first 5 round picks every year, which would equal a 12.5% percentage hitting the major leagues per draft year.
What has happened in the Epstein Era drafts:
In 2012, only #1) Almora CF and #8) Bote SS have made it to the majors out of 43 picks.
In 2013, only #1) Bryant 3B and #2) Zastryzny LHP made it to the majors (with only Bryant a full time starter) out of 40 picks.
In 2014, only #1) Schwarber C and #3) Zagunis C made it to the majors (with Schwarber starting to lift his platoon status) out of 40 picks.
In 2015, only #1) Happ 2B made it to the majors (but now he has been demoted to AAA) out of 40 picks.
No one from the 2016, 2017 or 2018 drafts have made it to the Cubs major league roster.
If you only count 2012-2015 draft classes as the litmus test, only 7 of 163 selections made it to the Cubs major league roster (4.29%). If you only count full time starters, then only 2 of 163 selections made it to the Cubs major league roster (1.22%).
Clearly, the Cubs have underperformed the 11.2% standard for prospect to major league promotion.
Adbert Alzolay was signed as a amateur free agent in 2012. He has spent more than 6 years to get his chance on the Cubs major league roster. That is a long time (the maximum time limit) to control a minor league prospect. As of this writing, he had a good first long relief outing, and is expected to spot start against the Braves. He would be the first Theo signed pitching prospect to potentially stick on the roster (fingers crossed).
When you factor in the pool of amateur free agent signing across baseball (international), the objective standard actually falls to around 10% promotion rate. With all the Cub international signings, the team's success rate is probably below the 4.29% above.
Epstein's Cub prospect development and promotion rate is 62 % below the average MLB standard. If you score only 38% on your test paper, most would call that a failure.
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
June 26, 2019
June 4, 2019
ANOTHER ARM
The Cubs first round draft choice was a college starting pitcher.
MLB.com stated:
27) Cubs: Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State
This is the biggest surprise of the first round so far, as Jensen was ranked No. 99 on our ranking of the top 200 Draft prospects. There's a lack of college pitching in this Draft, however, and we may see more teams push some college arms up their Draft boards, as the Cubs appeared to here. Jensen has one of the best fastballs in the college class, usually working at 94-98 mph and maintaining his velocity into the late innings. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, as is his control, and he doesn't have a real big frame (6-foot, 180 pounds), so he could be a reliever.
It is surprising that the Cubs reached for a third round prospect in the first round. It is another small frame pitcher who projects to be a reliever.
First round arms are supposed to be starters (unless you are a dominant career closer like the White Sox Burdi) because all relievers are failed starters.
High velocity throwers are nice, but can they pitch to make outs?
The reason the Cubs picked a college pitcher: to try to fast track him to the majors. The minor league system is devoid of any immediate help for the pitching staff. Could Jensen's velocity be enough to be a late season call-up to bolster an overworked bullpen? It is doubtful. But the Cubs window for a second championship run is closing fast with the improvements in their own division rivals.
The Cubs in the Theo era have NEVER developed their own starting pitcher. The first round choice is already pegged for relief duty by scouts.
It appears that the Cubs cannot solve their pitching problems by spending any money. Kimbrel and Keuchel are unrestricted free agents, but the Cubs are not thought to be interested in either. Ricketts has said he would not allow the Cubs to go over the luxury cap (where the Cubs payroll was on Game 1). The front office has been squeezing nickels out of dimes to supplement the roster. When the Indians gave up on Carlos Gonzalez (he was hitting .210), the Cubs picked him up for a prorated league minimum (from part of the payroll savings of not paying Zobrist who is on the restricted list). This is like trying to find lost change under the sofa cushions in order to buy a pizza.
Do not be surprised if the Cubs front load more pitchers in this year's draft because that seems to be the overriding need for the system.
MLB.com stated:
27) Cubs: Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State
This is the biggest surprise of the first round so far, as Jensen was ranked No. 99 on our ranking of the top 200 Draft prospects. There's a lack of college pitching in this Draft, however, and we may see more teams push some college arms up their Draft boards, as the Cubs appeared to here. Jensen has one of the best fastballs in the college class, usually working at 94-98 mph and maintaining his velocity into the late innings. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, as is his control, and he doesn't have a real big frame (6-foot, 180 pounds), so he could be a reliever.
It is surprising that the Cubs reached for a third round prospect in the first round. It is another small frame pitcher who projects to be a reliever.
First round arms are supposed to be starters (unless you are a dominant career closer like the White Sox Burdi) because all relievers are failed starters.
High velocity throwers are nice, but can they pitch to make outs?
The reason the Cubs picked a college pitcher: to try to fast track him to the majors. The minor league system is devoid of any immediate help for the pitching staff. Could Jensen's velocity be enough to be a late season call-up to bolster an overworked bullpen? It is doubtful. But the Cubs window for a second championship run is closing fast with the improvements in their own division rivals.
The Cubs in the Theo era have NEVER developed their own starting pitcher. The first round choice is already pegged for relief duty by scouts.
It appears that the Cubs cannot solve their pitching problems by spending any money. Kimbrel and Keuchel are unrestricted free agents, but the Cubs are not thought to be interested in either. Ricketts has said he would not allow the Cubs to go over the luxury cap (where the Cubs payroll was on Game 1). The front office has been squeezing nickels out of dimes to supplement the roster. When the Indians gave up on Carlos Gonzalez (he was hitting .210), the Cubs picked him up for a prorated league minimum (from part of the payroll savings of not paying Zobrist who is on the restricted list). This is like trying to find lost change under the sofa cushions in order to buy a pizza.
Do not be surprised if the Cubs front load more pitchers in this year's draft because that seems to be the overriding need for the system.
May 23, 2019
TOUGH GET GOING
When the going gets tough, the tough get going . . . to Japan.
Carter Stewart, a 19-year old pitcher was drafted in the first round of the MLB draft. Due to an alleged injury, the Braves cut his signing bonus offer in half, to $2 million. Stewart refused the offer. He is now expected to be drafted lower, in the second round.
But he won't be drafted at all. It has been reported that Stewart will by-pass the MLB and sign directly with a Japanese pro team for a six-year deal worth over $7 million.
This is a clever runaround of the draft and stash MLB procedure for young talent. You sign with a team, get a bonus, then toil in the minors from four to six years at a bare minimum salary. He is getting more than his projected $2 million bonus by $5 million. Currently, minor league players are paid from $1100 to $1800 per month depending on what level they are at in the system. At best, he would make $60,000 to $80,000 for six years of minor league service. Japan is giving him $5 million for the same training.
Though he is now committed to playing in Japan through age 25, Stewart will, essentially, enter free agency once he’s finished and be able to sign for whatever the market commands when the time comes. Stewart would be considered a standard international free agent should he play in Japan for the next six years, according to writer Jeff Passan.
In addition, he will have six seasons of higher than MLB minor league experience which could drive up his market value (see, Yu Darvish).
This could be the future for highly prized prospects who do not want to wait years in the minors to get their shot at the Big Show. And this is also a way to avoid being drafted by sink hole franchises like the Marlins.
But he won't be drafted at all. It has been reported that Stewart will by-pass the MLB and sign directly with a Japanese pro team for a six-year deal worth over $7 million.
This is a clever runaround of the draft and stash MLB procedure for young talent. You sign with a team, get a bonus, then toil in the minors from four to six years at a bare minimum salary. He is getting more than his projected $2 million bonus by $5 million. Currently, minor league players are paid from $1100 to $1800 per month depending on what level they are at in the system. At best, he would make $60,000 to $80,000 for six years of minor league service. Japan is giving him $5 million for the same training.
Though he is now committed to playing in Japan through age 25, Stewart will, essentially, enter free agency once he’s finished and be able to sign for whatever the market commands when the time comes. Stewart would be considered a standard international free agent should he play in Japan for the next six years, according to writer Jeff Passan.
In addition, he will have six seasons of higher than MLB minor league experience which could drive up his market value (see, Yu Darvish).
This could be the future for highly prized prospects who do not want to wait years in the minors to get their shot at the Big Show. And this is also a way to avoid being drafted by sink hole franchises like the Marlins.
March 28, 2019
THE INDICTMENT
The national news is filled with Chicago criminal headlines of celebrity favoritism, clout and pandering to voters. But the real indictment is the following:
When you looking at this pitching staff, what do you see?
STARTING PITCHERS
Yu Darvish
Cole Hamels
Kyle Hendricks
Jon Lester
Jose Quintana
RELIEF PITCHERS
Brad Brach
Tyler Chatwood
Steve Cishek
Carl Edwards Jr.
Brandon Kintzler
Mike Montgomery
Randy Rosario
Pedro Strop
The answer is obvious and criminal: none of these pitchers were drafted and developed by Theo Epstein.
Every one came by trade or free agency.
In seven years (seven amateur drafts), Epstein and company have failed to draft a pitcher and develop them to be on this year's 2019 Opening Day roster.
As a result, the starting rotation is the financial sinkhole of the team. If you include 6th starter Tyler Chatwood, the rotation's payroll is $97.9 million (or 47.5% of total budget).
The bullpen does not have a real, full time quality closer. Brandon Morrow is still on injured reserve, but his health for 2019 is always going to be a nagging issue.
As we have opined for years, the lack of developing home grown pitchers is killing the Cubs ability to make moves, keep a youthful core and combat arm injuries. Now, without any money to spend in case of injury, the Cubs are in a very tight spot in a very competitive NL Central.
When you looking at this pitching staff, what do you see?
STARTING PITCHERS
Yu Darvish
Cole Hamels
Kyle Hendricks
Jon Lester
Jose Quintana
RELIEF PITCHERS
Brad Brach
Tyler Chatwood
Steve Cishek
Carl Edwards Jr.
Brandon Kintzler
Mike Montgomery
Randy Rosario
Pedro Strop
The answer is obvious and criminal: none of these pitchers were drafted and developed by Theo Epstein.
Every one came by trade or free agency.
In seven years (seven amateur drafts), Epstein and company have failed to draft a pitcher and develop them to be on this year's 2019 Opening Day roster.
As a result, the starting rotation is the financial sinkhole of the team. If you include 6th starter Tyler Chatwood, the rotation's payroll is $97.9 million (or 47.5% of total budget).
The bullpen does not have a real, full time quality closer. Brandon Morrow is still on injured reserve, but his health for 2019 is always going to be a nagging issue.
As we have opined for years, the lack of developing home grown pitchers is killing the Cubs ability to make moves, keep a youthful core and combat arm injuries. Now, without any money to spend in case of injury, the Cubs are in a very tight spot in a very competitive NL Central.
November 15, 2018
HITTING THE IVY PADDED WALL
The happy family facade at Clark and Addison is beginning to crack.
The national media is confused by how the Cubs front office is acting this off-season. Even local writers have woken up to the prospect that the Cubs may not be the Midwest, free spending, big market Yankees.
It began when Theo Epstein post season autopsy, er, press conference left a lasting impression that Theo was not happy. He stressed the fact that the team has to focus in on performance and not talent. It means highly prized prospects have to perform better in order to keep their spot. But on the flip side, the Cubs brass have always been enamored with "their guys." They will keep their guys well past their trade value. And now, Epstein admits, that the 2019 roster improvement will have to come via trades.
It is stunning reversal for the genius baseball gods. The plan was to draft the best bats available and solve pitching via free agency. Young position players are cheap and controllable up to six years. Veteran reliable pitching, though expensive, is less likely to be busts. Well, until this year.
The Cubs spent more than $185 million on Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Morrow. The next consensus is that the three star pitchers flamed out badly. Darvish had injury problems from the start. Morrow had a long injury history. And Chatwood was plain bad.
The Cubs have drafted 147 pitchers in the past seven years and they have not developed one quality starting pitcher. Last season, Theo-Jed's farm system produced less than 20 innings of home grown pitching talent. It is a disaster. It has crippled the organization.
The quick promotions of Bryant, Schwarber and Happ have created a prospect vacuum in the minors. The best prospects are now at low A, four or five years away from the majors. Triple A is filled with AAA players with little chance to catch on even in a bench role. The minor league system has little trading chips. And the major league roster has very few "marketable" players to other teams because Russell, Schwarber and Happ are now solid .240 hitters which are a dime a dozen nowadays.
What struck the baseball nation odd was the story that in order for the Cubs to exercise the $20 million option on Cole Hamels, the team had to jettison $7 million in salary (Smyly was traded to the Rangers to clear that budget space.) Now that type of contract shuffling is what a small market team like the Royals, Rays or Marlins would be accused of doing for a long time.
The Cubs have been in the top 5 in spending, just under the luxury tax threshold. The ceiling goes up $9 million to $206 million in 2019. So one would ask why did the Cubs have issues signing Hamels if the team was getting a $9 million budget bump? Because the soft salary cap and the real Cubs payroll budget are two different things. The Cubs are already committed $350 million to 11 players. This does not include the arbitration awards for players like Bryant, Hendricks, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Montgomery, Edwards and LaStella. Collectively, these arb players will be paid north of $40 million.
Major caveat: rich people stay rich by not losing money.
Epstein's off-the-cuff remark that the Ricketts have invested $750 million on development around Wrigley Field is telling; the Cubs are secondary in ownership's profit center mindset. You have to realize that the outside development is not owned by the Cubs team. Separate companies own the land and the development of the McDonald's block and the triangle. In fact, the Cubs are a tenant because Wrigley is owned by a different legal entity. Why would Theo know how much the Ricketts invested in the neighborhood? He was told it.
There has always been friction between Epstein, baseball operations and the "business" side of the Cubs run by Crane Kenney and Tom Ricketts. Ricketts wants a return on his "entire" investment and that includes premium events at Wrigley, i.e. concerts or play-off games. When the Cubs bowed out of the playoffs in the Wild Card game, the Cubs lost at least $30 million in gate receipts and the Ricketts enterprises (the hotel, the bars, etc.) lost more than that in revenue. If the business side had counted on annual deep playoff runs in their budget projections, this would have been a huge jolt to ownership.
Perhaps, that is why Epstein has been surly. He cannot buy his way out of bust or dead money deals like he tried to do in Boston. So he has to find a scapegoat, so the hitting coach gets fired after a year (and apparently the pitching coach, Maddon ally Jim Hickey is also out the door.) Epstein blames Maddon for not following "the plan" with Morrow to not pitch him more than two days in a row. Maddon pitched Morrow three times (an extra 6 pitches) that allegedly caused Morrow to get shut down. This deflects the fact that Morrow is a brittle arm, but it gave Epstein some ammo not to extend Maddon's contract. Joe will be a lame duck manager in 2019. And if the league trend continues, he will not be renewed as teams are now hiring inexperienced, stats-savvy guys front offices can control. Such a hiring would save the Cubs at least $5 million in 2020.
As you can tell, these seem to be like nickel and dime, petty things to do. But it may be by necessity. The Cubs have the weakest local television rights contracts for a big market team. In 2020, the Cubs were going to launch their own network. The idea of a multi-billion payday for Cubs broadcasts is now a pipe dream after the Dodgers deal blew up in Time Warner's face. Cable operators are losing subscribers in 2018 at a 300,000/month clip. People will not pay $5/month extra for a sports channel on their already high cable bills. Only a fool would pay a team a Dodger pay-out. (In a telling move, in the past few years, the Steinbrenners, who created the team channel revenue stream, have divested most of their stake in their YES network.)
It seems that Epstein has hit the wall. He is under strict budget restrictions. That is why there are no rumors, stories or hints that the Cubs are negotiating for Harper or Machado or a starting pitcher like Keuchel. Epstein cannot sign free agents without making room for them in the budget (the Hamels option). He does not have a strong minor league system to either promote players to fill needs or trade prospects for proven talent.
Fans will not complain when the Cubs went "all in" in 2016 to win the World Championship. But now Epstein is sitting a poker table with a very short stack. And he is not happy about it.
The national media is confused by how the Cubs front office is acting this off-season. Even local writers have woken up to the prospect that the Cubs may not be the Midwest, free spending, big market Yankees.
It began when Theo Epstein post season autopsy, er, press conference left a lasting impression that Theo was not happy. He stressed the fact that the team has to focus in on performance and not talent. It means highly prized prospects have to perform better in order to keep their spot. But on the flip side, the Cubs brass have always been enamored with "their guys." They will keep their guys well past their trade value. And now, Epstein admits, that the 2019 roster improvement will have to come via trades.
It is stunning reversal for the genius baseball gods. The plan was to draft the best bats available and solve pitching via free agency. Young position players are cheap and controllable up to six years. Veteran reliable pitching, though expensive, is less likely to be busts. Well, until this year.
The Cubs spent more than $185 million on Yu Darvish, Tyler Chatwood and Brandon Morrow. The next consensus is that the three star pitchers flamed out badly. Darvish had injury problems from the start. Morrow had a long injury history. And Chatwood was plain bad.
The Cubs have drafted 147 pitchers in the past seven years and they have not developed one quality starting pitcher. Last season, Theo-Jed's farm system produced less than 20 innings of home grown pitching talent. It is a disaster. It has crippled the organization.
The quick promotions of Bryant, Schwarber and Happ have created a prospect vacuum in the minors. The best prospects are now at low A, four or five years away from the majors. Triple A is filled with AAA players with little chance to catch on even in a bench role. The minor league system has little trading chips. And the major league roster has very few "marketable" players to other teams because Russell, Schwarber and Happ are now solid .240 hitters which are a dime a dozen nowadays.
What struck the baseball nation odd was the story that in order for the Cubs to exercise the $20 million option on Cole Hamels, the team had to jettison $7 million in salary (Smyly was traded to the Rangers to clear that budget space.) Now that type of contract shuffling is what a small market team like the Royals, Rays or Marlins would be accused of doing for a long time.
The Cubs have been in the top 5 in spending, just under the luxury tax threshold. The ceiling goes up $9 million to $206 million in 2019. So one would ask why did the Cubs have issues signing Hamels if the team was getting a $9 million budget bump? Because the soft salary cap and the real Cubs payroll budget are two different things. The Cubs are already committed $350 million to 11 players. This does not include the arbitration awards for players like Bryant, Hendricks, Baez, Russell, Schwarber, Montgomery, Edwards and LaStella. Collectively, these arb players will be paid north of $40 million.
Major caveat: rich people stay rich by not losing money.
Epstein's off-the-cuff remark that the Ricketts have invested $750 million on development around Wrigley Field is telling; the Cubs are secondary in ownership's profit center mindset. You have to realize that the outside development is not owned by the Cubs team. Separate companies own the land and the development of the McDonald's block and the triangle. In fact, the Cubs are a tenant because Wrigley is owned by a different legal entity. Why would Theo know how much the Ricketts invested in the neighborhood? He was told it.
There has always been friction between Epstein, baseball operations and the "business" side of the Cubs run by Crane Kenney and Tom Ricketts. Ricketts wants a return on his "entire" investment and that includes premium events at Wrigley, i.e. concerts or play-off games. When the Cubs bowed out of the playoffs in the Wild Card game, the Cubs lost at least $30 million in gate receipts and the Ricketts enterprises (the hotel, the bars, etc.) lost more than that in revenue. If the business side had counted on annual deep playoff runs in their budget projections, this would have been a huge jolt to ownership.
Perhaps, that is why Epstein has been surly. He cannot buy his way out of bust or dead money deals like he tried to do in Boston. So he has to find a scapegoat, so the hitting coach gets fired after a year (and apparently the pitching coach, Maddon ally Jim Hickey is also out the door.) Epstein blames Maddon for not following "the plan" with Morrow to not pitch him more than two days in a row. Maddon pitched Morrow three times (an extra 6 pitches) that allegedly caused Morrow to get shut down. This deflects the fact that Morrow is a brittle arm, but it gave Epstein some ammo not to extend Maddon's contract. Joe will be a lame duck manager in 2019. And if the league trend continues, he will not be renewed as teams are now hiring inexperienced, stats-savvy guys front offices can control. Such a hiring would save the Cubs at least $5 million in 2020.
As you can tell, these seem to be like nickel and dime, petty things to do. But it may be by necessity. The Cubs have the weakest local television rights contracts for a big market team. In 2020, the Cubs were going to launch their own network. The idea of a multi-billion payday for Cubs broadcasts is now a pipe dream after the Dodgers deal blew up in Time Warner's face. Cable operators are losing subscribers in 2018 at a 300,000/month clip. People will not pay $5/month extra for a sports channel on their already high cable bills. Only a fool would pay a team a Dodger pay-out. (In a telling move, in the past few years, the Steinbrenners, who created the team channel revenue stream, have divested most of their stake in their YES network.)
It seems that Epstein has hit the wall. He is under strict budget restrictions. That is why there are no rumors, stories or hints that the Cubs are negotiating for Harper or Machado or a starting pitcher like Keuchel. Epstein cannot sign free agents without making room for them in the budget (the Hamels option). He does not have a strong minor league system to either promote players to fill needs or trade prospects for proven talent.
Fans will not complain when the Cubs went "all in" in 2016 to win the World Championship. But now Epstein is sitting a poker table with a very short stack. And he is not happy about it.
May 18, 2017
NEW ARM OLD STORY
Steve Stone once said that all bullpen arms are failed starters.
The Cubs under Theo have failed to draft and develop one starter of their own.
The streak continues even though the team called up one fading prospect.
The Cubs have optioned infielder Jeimer Candelario to Triple-A Iowa and added Pierce Johnson to their bullpen.
Johnson — the first pitcher the Theo Epstein regime drafted for the Cubs — will be available to make his big-league debut against the Cincinnati Reds.
Johnson — the 43rd overall pick out of Missouri State University in 2012 and the compensation for losing free agent Aramis Ramirez — struggled with command issues and health problems as a starter and pivoted toward a bullpen role last summer.
Johnson went 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 12 appearances for Iowa this season, putting up 21 strikeouts against 11 walks and 15 hits through 14 innings.
But when Johnson was drafted, the front office painted the picture that he was the prototype pitcher the Cubs would stock pile in the minors. It never happened. Even though more than 50% of all Cub draft selections have been pitchers, none have made the majors as a starter. The inability to develop a home grown starter is the black hole in the Cubs organization. Every team is desperate for pitching, especially quality inning-eating starters. The premium spot is an ace starter. The inability to develop starters has led the Cubs to the market to overspend on free agents and pitchers on the decline in their careers.
But as we have seen this season, a starting rotation can crumble quickly. A five-man Opening Day rotation now looks for a 5th starter, and two replacements for Arrieta and Lackey when their deals expire at the end of the year. Some predict that Arrieta and Lackey may not last the entire season. It then gets to the proposition of Peter stealing to pay Paul; trading the depth of position prospects to either rent or take on a bad contract at the deadline for an experienced major league starter.
The Cubs under Theo have failed to draft and develop one starter of their own.
The streak continues even though the team called up one fading prospect.
The Cubs have optioned infielder Jeimer Candelario to Triple-A Iowa and added Pierce Johnson to their bullpen.
Johnson — the first pitcher the Theo Epstein regime drafted for the Cubs — will be available to make his big-league debut against the Cincinnati Reds.
Johnson — the 43rd overall pick out of Missouri State University in 2012 and the compensation for losing free agent Aramis Ramirez — struggled with command issues and health problems as a starter and pivoted toward a bullpen role last summer.
Johnson went 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 12 appearances for Iowa this season, putting up 21 strikeouts against 11 walks and 15 hits through 14 innings.
But when Johnson was drafted, the front office painted the picture that he was the prototype pitcher the Cubs would stock pile in the minors. It never happened. Even though more than 50% of all Cub draft selections have been pitchers, none have made the majors as a starter. The inability to develop a home grown starter is the black hole in the Cubs organization. Every team is desperate for pitching, especially quality inning-eating starters. The premium spot is an ace starter. The inability to develop starters has led the Cubs to the market to overspend on free agents and pitchers on the decline in their careers.
But as we have seen this season, a starting rotation can crumble quickly. A five-man Opening Day rotation now looks for a 5th starter, and two replacements for Arrieta and Lackey when their deals expire at the end of the year. Some predict that Arrieta and Lackey may not last the entire season. It then gets to the proposition of Peter stealing to pay Paul; trading the depth of position prospects to either rent or take on a bad contract at the deadline for an experienced major league starter.
April 26, 2017
DRAFTING VALUE
Tomorrow begins the annual NFL draft. It is now largely a media event. The NFL wants to create a circus atmosphere to enhance fan interest for fall ticket and merchandise sales. It is essentially a meat market auction for college talent. But it is wrapped in inconsistent statements, philosophies and dumb moves.
Leading up to the first selection, the hype is on the "skilled" positions such as quarterback, running back or "edge rusher." But most of this smoke is misguided tripe. The NFL has made the running back position a mere commodity. Running backs get burned out quicker than most positions so teams now have RB squads to carry the ball during the season. Most GMs figure they can find a quality back in the 4th round of any draft.
The "edge" rusher is the bling for defensive stat coaches who look to the "sack" as the key to a strong defense. The sack is an overrated marker. A good offensive tackle can neutralize an edge rusher, who is usually a thinner, quicker version of the defensive end. A great sack machine can have 15 in a season, but in reality that is probably less than two percent of the player's defensive snaps. Most edge rushers only look to sacks, so the other 98 percent of the time they are a non-factor.
The most focus in pre-draft mocks is the quarterback position. It is still the glamour spot on any team. Every owner wants a "franchise" quarterback to be the "face of the team." It is said that without a franchise QB, a team cannot win a Super Bowl (but tell that to Doug Williams.) Columnists admit that teams "overvalue" the quarterback position in the first round of the draft because quality, pro-ready quarterbacks are harder to find. The reason is simple: colleges are not running pro-style offenses. If a college education is supposed to prepare young men and women for their careers, college athletes does not prepare QBs for the pros because college coaches are all about winning to retain their huge salary and benefit packages. That is why some teams will reach to the lower college ranks to pick a Carson Wentz, who played a pro-style offense in college.
Another reason why QBs get picked in the first round is that the CBA allows teams to keep a QB an extra (5th year) under the rookie contract. Teams rarely put a rookie QB in charge of the offense so they use the first professional year for training and development. But there is another school of thought: baptism under fire. Some old coaches believe that it is better to put a rookie into battle right away so he can learn at "game speed." The biggest difference between college and pros is that in the NFL the opponent is bigger, faster and more skilled than college competition. The more reps a player gets against that talent level, the quicker a team will know whether their player is going to make it.
The scouting consensus is that none of the top 4 QB prospects is "worthy" of a first round selection. But everyone concedes that at least 3 QBs will be drafted in the top 15. If teams stuck with their internal valuations, all the quarterbacks would fall to the second round - - - and if a team needed to draft one, that would be the place to do it. Part of the reason for over-drafting a QB is to appease fans of bad teams. Drafting a new QB means that there will be competition at the most important position on the field. Competition should bring out the best in a player. But some front offices have taken competition out of the equation. The Bears never brought in a new, young QB to compete with Jay Cutler. The team did not want a "quarterback controversy." Cutler was their QB, period. As a result, the Bears did not draft a successor to Cutler. The position languished under Cutler, but it was reasoned that Cutler still had "potential" to get better. He never did. Now, the Bears have the third draft pick - - - and the team is still uncomfortable in selecting a QB.
Many teams tell us the overriding strategy on their draft boards is to select "the best player available." This strategy can lead to mismanaging resources and overdrafting a position of strength. Teams are supposed to use the draft to make their teams better. To improve the overall talent pool. If a team is in desperate need for a cornerback, select a cornerback - - - not a running back who has better "numbers." Old school scouts and GMs scoff at the Combine as being an irrelevant side show. Who cares if a offensive line man can dead lift a Mack truck twenty times if he is a traffic cone when it comes to pass protection. How high a man can jump, his 40 yard dash time, his "wing span" and cone drill time is meaningless because an NFL game is not made of those drills. The only thing a good general manager should ask is "can this kid play football?" Does a prospect have the football IQ to adapt to the professional level? Does he understand the fundamental concepts of the playbook? Does he understand his role and assignments on the field? You can tell the quality of the NFL product has diminished because there are so many "combine heros" on the field who do not know what they are doing - - - especially glaring in the secondary when a free safety is running around like he is trying to herd cats.
Draft boards are closely guarded secrets. Sports media tries to find ways to get scoops on how their local team plans to draft. But most of the dialog is misinformation. If a team thinks Player X is the best player on their board, they will not hype him so some other team will take him before their pick. Likewise, some teams will say a player with off-the-field issues will not impact his status on their board, when in fact some coaches and GMs will eliminate that player totally from any consideration. The Commissioner's complete discretion in player discipline has made some teams extremely uncomfortable in drafting drug users or domestic abusers because of potential long suspensions for a second offense.
There is also misinformation from the clubs who continually state that the "prime" rounds are in the middle. But this philosophy makes little sense. If you value third round talent more than first round talent, then you should always trade your highest picks for multiple middle round selections. It is a method of covering for first round mistakes or blunder picks, such as picking an injured first rounder who never makes it on to the field.
In 2011, SB Nation did a review of the 2000-2007 drafts for all pro selections. The results contradict the middle round philosophy.
Leading up to the first selection, the hype is on the "skilled" positions such as quarterback, running back or "edge rusher." But most of this smoke is misguided tripe. The NFL has made the running back position a mere commodity. Running backs get burned out quicker than most positions so teams now have RB squads to carry the ball during the season. Most GMs figure they can find a quality back in the 4th round of any draft.
The "edge" rusher is the bling for defensive stat coaches who look to the "sack" as the key to a strong defense. The sack is an overrated marker. A good offensive tackle can neutralize an edge rusher, who is usually a thinner, quicker version of the defensive end. A great sack machine can have 15 in a season, but in reality that is probably less than two percent of the player's defensive snaps. Most edge rushers only look to sacks, so the other 98 percent of the time they are a non-factor.
The most focus in pre-draft mocks is the quarterback position. It is still the glamour spot on any team. Every owner wants a "franchise" quarterback to be the "face of the team." It is said that without a franchise QB, a team cannot win a Super Bowl (but tell that to Doug Williams.) Columnists admit that teams "overvalue" the quarterback position in the first round of the draft because quality, pro-ready quarterbacks are harder to find. The reason is simple: colleges are not running pro-style offenses. If a college education is supposed to prepare young men and women for their careers, college athletes does not prepare QBs for the pros because college coaches are all about winning to retain their huge salary and benefit packages. That is why some teams will reach to the lower college ranks to pick a Carson Wentz, who played a pro-style offense in college.
Another reason why QBs get picked in the first round is that the CBA allows teams to keep a QB an extra (5th year) under the rookie contract. Teams rarely put a rookie QB in charge of the offense so they use the first professional year for training and development. But there is another school of thought: baptism under fire. Some old coaches believe that it is better to put a rookie into battle right away so he can learn at "game speed." The biggest difference between college and pros is that in the NFL the opponent is bigger, faster and more skilled than college competition. The more reps a player gets against that talent level, the quicker a team will know whether their player is going to make it.
The scouting consensus is that none of the top 4 QB prospects is "worthy" of a first round selection. But everyone concedes that at least 3 QBs will be drafted in the top 15. If teams stuck with their internal valuations, all the quarterbacks would fall to the second round - - - and if a team needed to draft one, that would be the place to do it. Part of the reason for over-drafting a QB is to appease fans of bad teams. Drafting a new QB means that there will be competition at the most important position on the field. Competition should bring out the best in a player. But some front offices have taken competition out of the equation. The Bears never brought in a new, young QB to compete with Jay Cutler. The team did not want a "quarterback controversy." Cutler was their QB, period. As a result, the Bears did not draft a successor to Cutler. The position languished under Cutler, but it was reasoned that Cutler still had "potential" to get better. He never did. Now, the Bears have the third draft pick - - - and the team is still uncomfortable in selecting a QB.
Many teams tell us the overriding strategy on their draft boards is to select "the best player available." This strategy can lead to mismanaging resources and overdrafting a position of strength. Teams are supposed to use the draft to make their teams better. To improve the overall talent pool. If a team is in desperate need for a cornerback, select a cornerback - - - not a running back who has better "numbers." Old school scouts and GMs scoff at the Combine as being an irrelevant side show. Who cares if a offensive line man can dead lift a Mack truck twenty times if he is a traffic cone when it comes to pass protection. How high a man can jump, his 40 yard dash time, his "wing span" and cone drill time is meaningless because an NFL game is not made of those drills. The only thing a good general manager should ask is "can this kid play football?" Does a prospect have the football IQ to adapt to the professional level? Does he understand the fundamental concepts of the playbook? Does he understand his role and assignments on the field? You can tell the quality of the NFL product has diminished because there are so many "combine heros" on the field who do not know what they are doing - - - especially glaring in the secondary when a free safety is running around like he is trying to herd cats.
Draft boards are closely guarded secrets. Sports media tries to find ways to get scoops on how their local team plans to draft. But most of the dialog is misinformation. If a team thinks Player X is the best player on their board, they will not hype him so some other team will take him before their pick. Likewise, some teams will say a player with off-the-field issues will not impact his status on their board, when in fact some coaches and GMs will eliminate that player totally from any consideration. The Commissioner's complete discretion in player discipline has made some teams extremely uncomfortable in drafting drug users or domestic abusers because of potential long suspensions for a second offense.
There is also misinformation from the clubs who continually state that the "prime" rounds are in the middle. But this philosophy makes little sense. If you value third round talent more than first round talent, then you should always trade your highest picks for multiple middle round selections. It is a method of covering for first round mistakes or blunder picks, such as picking an injured first rounder who never makes it on to the field.
In 2011, SB Nation did a review of the 2000-2007 drafts for all pro selections. The results contradict the middle round philosophy.
Round 1: In each of these
years, 31 players were taken in round 1. Out of those players, 13, 16,
10, 13, 15, 10, 13, and 10 in years 2000-2007, respectively, have made
the Pro Bowl. In only one year did at least half the players drafted in
round 1 eventually become Pro Bowlers. The average for the 8 yrs is
12.5.
Round 2: Again, 31 players
were drafted in round 2 in each of these years. Those becoming Pro
Bowlers number 5, 11, 4, 6, 2, 5, 6, and 5, for an average of 5.5 per
year. This is less than 1 in 5 players drafted in this round. Again,
2001 appears to behave been a banner year.
Round 3: The numbers in round 3
are: 1, 3, 2, 2, 6, 2, 0, and 0, for an average of 2.0, or less than 1
in every 15 players chosen (note that compensatory picks make the number
of players chosen in rounds 3-7 higher than 31).
The average for Round 4 was 2.375, for round 5 it was 1.625, for round 6 it was 1.5, and for round 7 it was 0.75.
The author's conclusion was the
odds of finding that Pro Bowler are not that good, even in the first
round (40%) And the odds of finding quality talent after the first round drops significantly as the second round is only 20%, the third round 6.7%. It shows
how important it is to address your biggest need(s) in the first round
or two. The odds are that your team will not pick a pro bowler in any round of the draft.
If you look at it objectively, even the best GM over a seven year draft cycle will only pick 6 pro bowl quality players or around 12% of total picks. An average GM over the same time period may only select 3 pro bowl quality players.
So, an NFL team needs to draft their primary, urgent needs each and every draft cycle; not the best player available but the best player at the position of need available. If you bet on the best player but he will not play because of a current starter is a veteran, then what is the point of stockpiling talent? And that does not help the problem positions on the team.
Drafts get screwed up because the nature of the clock and GMs, coaches and owners who disagree in the war room when they are on the clock. For years, commentators would wait for a team like the Raiders to pick someone out of the blue which would have a cascade effect across the rest of the NFL teams. That is part of the drama of the draft that NFL executives like to see.
But year after year, teams drafting lower in the order like the New England Patriots, seem to find more talent than the lowly Cleveland Browns. But the Pats do not necessarily draft or sign the fastest, strongest or more impressive Combine stars. They draft football players.
July 14, 2016
PITCHING WEAKNESS
The philosophy that you draft the best bat available and buy pitching on the free market may come to haunt the Cubs in the future.
Most organizations have a balanced approach to player development: you draft both pitchers and hitters high in drafts, and develop all players in the same manner. You use trades and free agency to fill in development gaps on a major league roster. Only a few teams, like the Yankees in the past, have used free agency as the major building blocks for a major league roster.
The myth is that the Cubs's draft strategy was hitter-heavy. More than 47 percent of Theo's Cub draft choices have been pitchers. And the real problem with the Cubs farm system is that it has not developed one starting pitcher in the Theo tenure.
It is possible to draft and develop star pitching talent. Prime example is the White Sox (who have a reverse problem of being unable to draft and consistently develop position players).
The Cubs have relied on a five man rotation. Luckily, the pitchers have not gotten hurt. Adam Warren has made on spot start to give the rotation a day breather, but that did not help much.
If any starter breaks down, there is no help in AAA Iowa.
Pitcher/Games Started/Win-Loss/ERA
Drew Rucsinski 18/5-8/5.83
Jack Buchanan 14/7-5/4.77
Rob Zastryzny 9/42/4.83
Ryan Williams 9/4-1/3.27
Pierce Johnson 9/1-4/7.24
Of the Iowa rotation, Johnson was the former #1 pitching prospect in the organization. But his stock has fallen. Badly.
On the Cubs Top Ten Prospects, only three pitchers are in that list:
#4 Duane Underwood, who is at AA with an 0-5, 4.91 ERA.
#8 Dylan Chase, who is in low A with a 1-0, 3.18 record in 4 starts.
#9 Oscar De La Cruz, who is low A but has not pitched all year.
An objective look at the talent in AAA and the top pitching prospects, the Cubs pitching pantry is pretty barren.
The lack of organizational pitching depth has been a concern for several years. The second half of 2016 may show its glaring weakness affecting a playoff race.
Most organizations have a balanced approach to player development: you draft both pitchers and hitters high in drafts, and develop all players in the same manner. You use trades and free agency to fill in development gaps on a major league roster. Only a few teams, like the Yankees in the past, have used free agency as the major building blocks for a major league roster.
The myth is that the Cubs's draft strategy was hitter-heavy. More than 47 percent of Theo's Cub draft choices have been pitchers. And the real problem with the Cubs farm system is that it has not developed one starting pitcher in the Theo tenure.
It is possible to draft and develop star pitching talent. Prime example is the White Sox (who have a reverse problem of being unable to draft and consistently develop position players).
The Cubs have relied on a five man rotation. Luckily, the pitchers have not gotten hurt. Adam Warren has made on spot start to give the rotation a day breather, but that did not help much.
If any starter breaks down, there is no help in AAA Iowa.
Pitcher/Games Started/Win-Loss/ERA
Drew Rucsinski 18/5-8/5.83
Jack Buchanan 14/7-5/4.77
Rob Zastryzny 9/42/4.83
Ryan Williams 9/4-1/3.27
Pierce Johnson 9/1-4/7.24
Of the Iowa rotation, Johnson was the former #1 pitching prospect in the organization. But his stock has fallen. Badly.
On the Cubs Top Ten Prospects, only three pitchers are in that list:
#4 Duane Underwood, who is at AA with an 0-5, 4.91 ERA.
#8 Dylan Chase, who is in low A with a 1-0, 3.18 record in 4 starts.
#9 Oscar De La Cruz, who is low A but has not pitched all year.
An objective look at the talent in AAA and the top pitching prospects, the Cubs pitching pantry is pretty barren.
The lack of organizational pitching depth has been a concern for several years. The second half of 2016 may show its glaring weakness affecting a playoff race.
January 28, 2016
FOWLER
Dexter Fowler was a competent center fielder for the 2015 Cubs.
Fowler, 29, hit .250, 17 HR, 46 RBI, 20 SB, 2.2 WAR. He made $9.5 million in 2015. He turned down a qualifying offer of $15.3 million. So any team besides the Cubs who sign him have to give up a first round draft pick as compensation.
Currently, two teams have been rumored to have interest in Fowler: the Cubs and White Sox. That would seem redundant since the Sox have Adam Eaton in center, and the Cubs stated that Jason Heyward would play center in 2016.
There is also a question of compensation. Fowler thinks he is worth more than the $15.3 million one year offer. He is at the point of getting one good long term deal in his back pocket. But last year's WAR by some accounts put his value more at $12.5 million than $15 million. The Cubs made that offer because the team had not vaulted into the free agent market.
Teams do want to keep their high draft picks because those players can be cheaply controlled for six years. Prime example, Kris Bryant.
Is Fowler worth losing a chance at the next Kris Bryant? That is what keeps GMs up at night.
But if the Cubs re-sign Fowler to play center, it moves Heyward back to his natural position of right field. That makes the Cubs collective outfield defense better than a Schwarber-Heyward-Soler triad.
It would also put Soler on the bench or part of a major trade package (with prospects like Vogelbach, Villaneuva or Szczur) for more starting pitching.
Fowler is a nice player but not worth a 4 year/$65 million contract.
Fowler, 29, hit .250, 17 HR, 46 RBI, 20 SB, 2.2 WAR. He made $9.5 million in 2015. He turned down a qualifying offer of $15.3 million. So any team besides the Cubs who sign him have to give up a first round draft pick as compensation.
Currently, two teams have been rumored to have interest in Fowler: the Cubs and White Sox. That would seem redundant since the Sox have Adam Eaton in center, and the Cubs stated that Jason Heyward would play center in 2016.
There is also a question of compensation. Fowler thinks he is worth more than the $15.3 million one year offer. He is at the point of getting one good long term deal in his back pocket. But last year's WAR by some accounts put his value more at $12.5 million than $15 million. The Cubs made that offer because the team had not vaulted into the free agent market.
Teams do want to keep their high draft picks because those players can be cheaply controlled for six years. Prime example, Kris Bryant.
Is Fowler worth losing a chance at the next Kris Bryant? That is what keeps GMs up at night.
But if the Cubs re-sign Fowler to play center, it moves Heyward back to his natural position of right field. That makes the Cubs collective outfield defense better than a Schwarber-Heyward-Soler triad.
It would also put Soler on the bench or part of a major trade package (with prospects like Vogelbach, Villaneuva or Szczur) for more starting pitching.
Fowler is a nice player but not worth a 4 year/$65 million contract.
July 4, 2015
UNDER SLOT
There is a growing trend of teams picking players in the draft in higher rounds to under slot their bonuses to save cash to sign bigger value prospects that fall a round or two. A player who falls from the first round loses some leverage. It depends whether a high schooler has no desire to go to college or one who decides college will only increase his status in the next draft. Every draft choice has a number in mind to give up school to turn pro. The idea of finding the right prospects in the top ten rounds who are willing to get their number but at a higher draft order (thus saving the bonus pool and gaining leverage for later round picks) is the new strategy.
Saving money by drafting players you know who will sign for less (because you will pay them more than their projected draft value) is a tool to stock pile several players for the cost of a high first round pick. The more quality prospects you can sign the more chance of success.
The Cubs have agreed to a $1.3MM bonus with fourth-round selection D.J. Wilson, Jim Callis of MLB.com reports on Twitter. That’s well above the $503,100 slot value that came with the 113th overall pick.
Wilson is a high school center fielder who had been committed to Vanderbilt. What he lacks in stature (Wilson is just 5’8) he makes up for with plus speed. MLB.com rated him the 129th-best prospect available, comparing his overall offensive package to that of Ben Revere: solid hitting ability, excellent speed, little power Baseball America which ranked Wilson 178th, likened him to Adam Eaton, a serviceable lead off hitter.
On the defensive side of things, Wilson is said to possess quite a nice overall package of skills. He not only moves well, but is said to have good instincts in center in addition to a strong and accurate arm.
MLBTR noted that when the Cubs’ signed second-round pick Donnie Dewees, the club had socked away a notable pile of cash in many of its early signings. This agreement will absorb a big piece of that availability, and the club could need the rest to lock up third-rounder Bryan Hudson, a projectable lefty who has committed to the University of Missouri.
June 10, 2015
CHICAGO DRAFT STRATEGY
There is a clear trend developing in Chicago prospect baseball.
Both the White Sox and the Cubs have focused this year on drafting college pitchers.
It is probably a safer bet but with less ceiling than drafting raw high school pitchers.
College pitchers have a longer track record. College pitchers have had better competition. College pitchers usually have better video to dissect by scouts. College pitchers have been involved in more road trips, being away from home, and being part of a long term team process than high schoolers.
College pitchers should also develop faster than high school starters.
It is a signal that both the Cubs and White Sox are looking for arm help sooner than later, especially in their mid Top 10 selections.
The Cubs top draft selections:
1 (9) -- Ian Happ OF/2B, Cincinnati
2 (47) -- Donnie Dewees, OF, University of North Florida
3 (82) -- Bryan Hudson, LHP, Alton (Ill.) High School
4 (113) -- Darryl Wilson, OF, Canton (Ohio) South High School
5 (143) -- Ryan Kellogg, LHP, Arizona State
6 (173) -- Dave Berg, RHP, UCLA
7 (203) -- Craig Brooks, RHP, Catawba College
8 (233) -- Preston Morrison, RHP, TCU
9 (263) -- Tyler Peitzmeier, LHP, Cal State Fullerton
10 (293) -- Vimael Machin, SS, VCU
The White Sox selections:
1 (8) -- Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt
4 (112) -- Zack Erwin, LHP, Clemson
5 (142) -- Jordan Stephens, RHP, Rice
6 (172) -- Corey Zangari, RHP, Carl Albert High School (Midwest City, Okla.)
7 (202) --Blake Hickman, RHP, Iowa
8 (232) -- Casey Schroeder, C, Coastal Carolina
9 (262) -- Ryan Hinchley, LHP, University of Illinois at Chicago
10 (292) -- Jackson Glines, CF, University of Michigan
Some scout and draft experts believe the White Sox got the best MLB ready pitcher in Fulmer. The Sox are not coy in moving quality college pitchers quickly to the majors (Sale, Rodon). Six of the 8 Sox selections were pitchers with 5 of the 6 college players.
The Cubs selected 6 pitchers out of their 10 selections, with 5 of 6 being college players. The Cubs have been true to form in drafting the best hitter in Round 1 of the draft then load up on pitchers in the middle of the first two draft days.
Pitching is a premium need on both clubs. It shows in their draft strategy.
Both the White Sox and the Cubs have focused this year on drafting college pitchers.
It is probably a safer bet but with less ceiling than drafting raw high school pitchers.
College pitchers have a longer track record. College pitchers have had better competition. College pitchers usually have better video to dissect by scouts. College pitchers have been involved in more road trips, being away from home, and being part of a long term team process than high schoolers.
College pitchers should also develop faster than high school starters.
It is a signal that both the Cubs and White Sox are looking for arm help sooner than later, especially in their mid Top 10 selections.
The Cubs top draft selections:
1 (9) -- Ian Happ OF/2B, Cincinnati
2 (47) -- Donnie Dewees, OF, University of North Florida
3 (82) -- Bryan Hudson, LHP, Alton (Ill.) High School
4 (113) -- Darryl Wilson, OF, Canton (Ohio) South High School
5 (143) -- Ryan Kellogg, LHP, Arizona State
6 (173) -- Dave Berg, RHP, UCLA
7 (203) -- Craig Brooks, RHP, Catawba College
8 (233) -- Preston Morrison, RHP, TCU
9 (263) -- Tyler Peitzmeier, LHP, Cal State Fullerton
10 (293) -- Vimael Machin, SS, VCU
The White Sox selections:
1 (8) -- Carson Fulmer, RHP, Vanderbilt
4 (112) -- Zack Erwin, LHP, Clemson
5 (142) -- Jordan Stephens, RHP, Rice
6 (172) -- Corey Zangari, RHP, Carl Albert High School (Midwest City, Okla.)
7 (202) --Blake Hickman, RHP, Iowa
8 (232) -- Casey Schroeder, C, Coastal Carolina
9 (262) -- Ryan Hinchley, LHP, University of Illinois at Chicago
10 (292) -- Jackson Glines, CF, University of Michigan
Some scout and draft experts believe the White Sox got the best MLB ready pitcher in Fulmer. The Sox are not coy in moving quality college pitchers quickly to the majors (Sale, Rodon). Six of the 8 Sox selections were pitchers with 5 of the 6 college players.
The Cubs selected 6 pitchers out of their 10 selections, with 5 of 6 being college players. The Cubs have been true to form in drafting the best hitter in Round 1 of the draft then load up on pitchers in the middle of the first two draft days.
Pitching is a premium need on both clubs. It shows in their draft strategy.
June 9, 2015
ROUND ONE
The MLB draft did not have the attention or excitement of the past few seasons. It could be that the Sox and Cubs were drafting lower down in the Top 10. Or that the Blackhawks were playing Game 3 of the Stanley Cup finals. Or that the Cubs rebuild seems to be almost done.
Let others decide how well each team did, like Jim Callis of MLB.com
Round 1
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt
Jim Callis: I like this pick. There was some talk that the D-backs might try to get a deep discount here and get cute in later rounds, but you've got to take who you think is the best player available, and they did that. Swanson has the tools to be an All-Star.
2. Houston Astros (compensation for not signing 2014 No. 1 pick Brady Aiken): SS Alex Bregman, LSU
Callis: Two SEC shortstops with the first two picks. They were teammates on Team USA last summer and get compared a lot. Swanson is the better athlete, but Bregman might have a little more impact at the plate. Bregman gets compared to Dustin Pedroia and some say he might have to move second base, but the scouts I've talked to give him a better chance to stick at shortstop than in the past.
3. Colorado Rockies: SS Brendan Rodgers, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS
Callis: He's the No. 1 player on MLB Pipeline's Draft board and has the highest ceiling in the Draft. Rodgers has a chance to stay at shortstop and has unusual power for the position. He can give you five solid tools across the board and he has to be considered the heir apparent to Troy Tulowitzki.
4. Texas Rangers: RHP Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara
Callis: I was curious to see who would be first pitcher taken. Clubs had Tate, Carson Fulmer and Tyler Jay in different orders, but Tate was the front-runner earlier in the season when he had two well-above average pitches in his fastball and slider. He faded a bit down the stretch, but that's expected in his first full season as a college starter.
5. Houston Astros: OF Kyle Tucker, H.B. Plant HS (Tampa, Fla.)
Callis: He's one of the best pure hitters in this Draft and also the first "bloodlines" player taken, which makes for a neat story with his brother Preston already in the big leagues with Houston. Kyle is a more well-rounded player, who has a chance to be average or better across the board.
6. Minnesota Twins: LHP Tyler Jay, Illinois
Callis: He's not the biggest guy in the world and has made just two college starts, but he can be a big league starter because everything else is there. The Twins could try to expedite Jay to the big leagues since they're contending -- maybe he's this year's Brandon Finnegan -- and then they could turn him into a starter next year.
7. Boston Red Sox: OF Andrew Benintendi, Arkansas
Callis: He might have the best all-around tools among the college players in this Draft. The Red Sox targeted Benintendi early and there was a chance he could have gone a bit higher, so I'm sure they're thrilled they got him.
8. Chicago White Sox: RHP Carson Fulmer, Vanderbilt
Callis: The White Sox have to be thrilled to get the best pitcher in the Draft, according to the MLB Pipeline board, and they were really hoping to get him, Tate or Jay. You wish Fulmer was a little bigger and threw more strikes, but you have to give him credit that he's brought quality stuff ever since he became a starter in the middle of last season.
9. Chicago Cubs: OF Ian Happ, Cincinnati
Callis: Teams are always looking for college position players, and he was next on most boards behind Swanson, Bregman and Benentendi. I don't know if the Cubs are going to try Happ at second base -- he fits better at a corner outfield spot -- but he's been one of the best performers in college baseball and the Cape Cod League the past two years.
10. Philadelphia Phillies: SS Cornelius Randolph, Griffin (Ga.) HS
Callis: It would be easy to think the Phils would take someone who can help them quickly because the franchise hasn't done as well in recent years, but they took the best player on the board. Randolph might take a little longer to develop than a college player, but you could argue that he's the best all-around high school hitter in the Draft.
11. Cincinnati Reds: C Tyler Stephenson, Kennesaw Mountain HS (Kennesaw, Ga.)
Callis: It's not a deep Draft for catchers, and the Reds got the best one by far. Long arms equal a long swing, so Stephenson is going to have to prove that he can hit advanced pitching, but he has the tools to be an All-Star.
I added Stephenson at #11 to Cincinnati since I thought the Cubs may have taken him to shore up their long term catching needs.
The White Sox continue with their strength: drafting and developing quality starting pitchers. It seems that is all the club can do, as seen by Chris Sale becoming the first White Sox pitcher in history to record ten strikeouts or more in four consecutive starts. If Fulmer, from a quality Vandy program, is the best pitcher in this draft, I expect the right hander to be put on a quick development path like the Sox did for Carlos Rodon.
The Cubs selection of Happ was a little surprise since the Cubs already have a long jam of infield talent that will have to be moved to the outfield at some point in time (Baez, Schwarber, Vogelbach). The idea of converting a corner outfielder into a second baseman seems like reverse logic. But the one thing the Cubs do well under Theo has been drafting pure hitters and apparently Happ is one of those type of prospects.
Let others decide how well each team did, like Jim Callis of MLB.com
Round 1
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Dansby Swanson, Vanderbilt
Jim Callis: I like this pick. There was some talk that the D-backs might try to get a deep discount here and get cute in later rounds, but you've got to take who you think is the best player available, and they did that. Swanson has the tools to be an All-Star.
2. Houston Astros (compensation for not signing 2014 No. 1 pick Brady Aiken): SS Alex Bregman, LSU
Callis: Two SEC shortstops with the first two picks. They were teammates on Team USA last summer and get compared a lot. Swanson is the better athlete, but Bregman might have a little more impact at the plate. Bregman gets compared to Dustin Pedroia and some say he might have to move second base, but the scouts I've talked to give him a better chance to stick at shortstop than in the past.
3. Colorado Rockies: SS Brendan Rodgers, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS
Callis: He's the No. 1 player on MLB Pipeline's Draft board and has the highest ceiling in the Draft. Rodgers has a chance to stay at shortstop and has unusual power for the position. He can give you five solid tools across the board and he has to be considered the heir apparent to Troy Tulowitzki.
4. Texas Rangers: RHP Dillon Tate, UC Santa Barbara
Callis: I was curious to see who would be first pitcher taken. Clubs had Tate, Carson Fulmer and Tyler Jay in different orders, but Tate was the front-runner earlier in the season when he had two well-above average pitches in his fastball and slider. He faded a bit down the stretch, but that's expected in his first full season as a college starter.
5. Houston Astros: OF Kyle Tucker, H.B. Plant HS (Tampa, Fla.)
Callis: He's one of the best pure hitters in this Draft and also the first "bloodlines" player taken, which makes for a neat story with his brother Preston already in the big leagues with Houston. Kyle is a more well-rounded player, who has a chance to be average or better across the board.
6. Minnesota Twins: LHP Tyler Jay, Illinois
Callis: He's not the biggest guy in the world and has made just two college starts, but he can be a big league starter because everything else is there. The Twins could try to expedite Jay to the big leagues since they're contending -- maybe he's this year's Brandon Finnegan -- and then they could turn him into a starter next year.
7. Boston Red Sox: OF Andrew Benintendi, Arkansas
Callis: He might have the best all-around tools among the college players in this Draft. The Red Sox targeted Benintendi early and there was a chance he could have gone a bit higher, so I'm sure they're thrilled they got him.
8. Chicago White Sox: RHP Carson Fulmer, Vanderbilt
Callis: The White Sox have to be thrilled to get the best pitcher in the Draft, according to the MLB Pipeline board, and they were really hoping to get him, Tate or Jay. You wish Fulmer was a little bigger and threw more strikes, but you have to give him credit that he's brought quality stuff ever since he became a starter in the middle of last season.
9. Chicago Cubs: OF Ian Happ, Cincinnati
Callis: Teams are always looking for college position players, and he was next on most boards behind Swanson, Bregman and Benentendi. I don't know if the Cubs are going to try Happ at second base -- he fits better at a corner outfield spot -- but he's been one of the best performers in college baseball and the Cape Cod League the past two years.
10. Philadelphia Phillies: SS Cornelius Randolph, Griffin (Ga.) HS
Callis: It would be easy to think the Phils would take someone who can help them quickly because the franchise hasn't done as well in recent years, but they took the best player on the board. Randolph might take a little longer to develop than a college player, but you could argue that he's the best all-around high school hitter in the Draft.
11. Cincinnati Reds: C Tyler Stephenson, Kennesaw Mountain HS (Kennesaw, Ga.)
Callis: It's not a deep Draft for catchers, and the Reds got the best one by far. Long arms equal a long swing, so Stephenson is going to have to prove that he can hit advanced pitching, but he has the tools to be an All-Star.
I added Stephenson at #11 to Cincinnati since I thought the Cubs may have taken him to shore up their long term catching needs.
The White Sox continue with their strength: drafting and developing quality starting pitchers. It seems that is all the club can do, as seen by Chris Sale becoming the first White Sox pitcher in history to record ten strikeouts or more in four consecutive starts. If Fulmer, from a quality Vandy program, is the best pitcher in this draft, I expect the right hander to be put on a quick development path like the Sox did for Carlos Rodon.
The Cubs selection of Happ was a little surprise since the Cubs already have a long jam of infield talent that will have to be moved to the outfield at some point in time (Baez, Schwarber, Vogelbach). The idea of converting a corner outfielder into a second baseman seems like reverse logic. But the one thing the Cubs do well under Theo has been drafting pure hitters and apparently Happ is one of those type of prospects.
June 7, 2015
2015 DRAFT
Baseball America Top 10 draft projections gives us the best insight on the draft.
Industry sources indicate Arizona whittled its list down to three players in the last week: Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson, Illinois lefthander Tyler Jay and Georgia prep catcher Tyler Stephenson. After his SEC tournament performance, Swanson has separated himself from the college-hitter pack and is the safest bet of the group, but I continue to hear persistent talk the D-backs prefer a college starter. If that holds, they’ll take Jay, but right now the talk is stronger that they’ll take Swanson.
The Astros continue to be connected to college bats with this pick, but if Swanson is gone, that leaves his friendly rival and former USA Baseball teammate, shortstop Alex Bregman of Louisiana State.
The Rockies have been focused heavily on Jay, whom they like as a future starter, and believe they will take Lake Mary (Fla.) High shortstop Brendan Rodgers. The Rockies passed on Evan Longoria in 2006 to take a pitcher (Stanford’s Greg Reynolds), and the organization may not want to make the same mistake. Some believe Rodgers has that kind of offensive upside, and he has a similar setup with his hands. But the bottom line is the Rockies need pitching and they can’t acquire arms like Jay’s on the free-agent market so Jay is picked here.
The Rangers may take Jon Harris of Missouri State here, and he’s still in play. But if Rodgers falls here, it’s a moot point. Selection: Brendan Rodgers, ss, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS
BA thinks prep outfielders will start going off the board with a domino effect. While scouts aren’t 100 percent sure of Daz Cameron as a hitter, he has the best chance of this year’s prep class to stay in center field. The Astros start the movement with Daz Cameron, of, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, McDonough, Ga.
Minnesota continues to give the college arms (such as UCLA’s James Karpielian) a look but industry sources still tie the organization to prep outfielders. They’re working out Kyle Tucker this week as it looks increasingly likely that Cameron, their chosen target, will be unavailable. The choice may be Kyle Tucker, of, Plant HS, Tampa
Boston is believed to be mulling three to four candidates, including Bregman and Cameron (both gone in this mock) as well as Vanderbilt ace Carson Fulmer and Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi. Neither performed well in the Southeastern Conference tournament, and neither has a great big league analogue. Fulmer’s high floor and track record are the separating factors. Fulmer seems to be the safe choice here.
The White Sox have struggled with their first round picks (non-pitchers) They’re interested in Fulmer, as they remain in strong consideration for college arms, but the best bets here will wind up being a choice between UC Santa Barbara’s Dillon Tate and Harris. Tate’s stock has tumbled some in recent weeks as his velocity and location on his fastball have backed up, but he has better present stuff than Harris, who is a safer bet to start but has a lower ceiling. BA thinks Tate is the call here.
The Cubs have scouted Benintendi and Kaprielian. BA thinks that Kaprielian may offer the best bet among the college starters, but that his at times pedestrian velocity holds him back for some clubs, as does his perceived price tag. Kaprielian wasn’t as good against Oregon as he had been in recent weeks. His fastball had maintained 92 mph deep into starts in recent weeks (including the no-hitter), but in his last outing his fastball dipped to 88-90 by the fifth inning, but he has a track record of performance and a strong feel for using his above-average secondary stuff. He seems to be the Cubs choice.
With the 10th pick, The Phillies could take Kaprielian if he’s there but are said not to favor Harris, who lacks present physicality. Instead they’re tied more to upside prep bats such as the outfield class and Tyler Stephenson. c, Kennesaw Mountain (Ga.) HS
I would not be surprised if the Cubs took Stephenson, the high school catcher, at #9 if the plan really is to move Kyle Schwarber to the outfield.
I do believe the White Sox are in need of right handed starting pitching, and a college starter from a major program is what the organization needs to balance the rotation.
Industry sources indicate Arizona whittled its list down to three players in the last week: Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson, Illinois lefthander Tyler Jay and Georgia prep catcher Tyler Stephenson. After his SEC tournament performance, Swanson has separated himself from the college-hitter pack and is the safest bet of the group, but I continue to hear persistent talk the D-backs prefer a college starter. If that holds, they’ll take Jay, but right now the talk is stronger that they’ll take Swanson.
The Astros continue to be connected to college bats with this pick, but if Swanson is gone, that leaves his friendly rival and former USA Baseball teammate, shortstop Alex Bregman of Louisiana State.
The Rockies have been focused heavily on Jay, whom they like as a future starter, and believe they will take Lake Mary (Fla.) High shortstop Brendan Rodgers. The Rockies passed on Evan Longoria in 2006 to take a pitcher (Stanford’s Greg Reynolds), and the organization may not want to make the same mistake. Some believe Rodgers has that kind of offensive upside, and he has a similar setup with his hands. But the bottom line is the Rockies need pitching and they can’t acquire arms like Jay’s on the free-agent market so Jay is picked here.
The Rangers may take Jon Harris of Missouri State here, and he’s still in play. But if Rodgers falls here, it’s a moot point. Selection: Brendan Rodgers, ss, Lake Mary (Fla.) HS
BA thinks prep outfielders will start going off the board with a domino effect. While scouts aren’t 100 percent sure of Daz Cameron as a hitter, he has the best chance of this year’s prep class to stay in center field. The Astros start the movement with Daz Cameron, of, Eagle’s Landing Christian Academy, McDonough, Ga.
Minnesota continues to give the college arms (such as UCLA’s James Karpielian) a look but industry sources still tie the organization to prep outfielders. They’re working out Kyle Tucker this week as it looks increasingly likely that Cameron, their chosen target, will be unavailable. The choice may be Kyle Tucker, of, Plant HS, Tampa
Boston is believed to be mulling three to four candidates, including Bregman and Cameron (both gone in this mock) as well as Vanderbilt ace Carson Fulmer and Arkansas outfielder Andrew Benintendi. Neither performed well in the Southeastern Conference tournament, and neither has a great big league analogue. Fulmer’s high floor and track record are the separating factors. Fulmer seems to be the safe choice here.
The White Sox have struggled with their first round picks (non-pitchers) They’re interested in Fulmer, as they remain in strong consideration for college arms, but the best bets here will wind up being a choice between UC Santa Barbara’s Dillon Tate and Harris. Tate’s stock has tumbled some in recent weeks as his velocity and location on his fastball have backed up, but he has better present stuff than Harris, who is a safer bet to start but has a lower ceiling. BA thinks Tate is the call here.
The Cubs have scouted Benintendi and Kaprielian. BA thinks that Kaprielian may offer the best bet among the college starters, but that his at times pedestrian velocity holds him back for some clubs, as does his perceived price tag. Kaprielian wasn’t as good against Oregon as he had been in recent weeks. His fastball had maintained 92 mph deep into starts in recent weeks (including the no-hitter), but in his last outing his fastball dipped to 88-90 by the fifth inning, but he has a track record of performance and a strong feel for using his above-average secondary stuff. He seems to be the Cubs choice.
With the 10th pick, The Phillies could take Kaprielian if he’s there but are said not to favor Harris, who lacks present physicality. Instead they’re tied more to upside prep bats such as the outfield class and Tyler Stephenson. c, Kennesaw Mountain (Ga.) HS
I would not be surprised if the Cubs took Stephenson, the high school catcher, at #9 if the plan really is to move Kyle Schwarber to the outfield.
I do believe the White Sox are in need of right handed starting pitching, and a college starter from a major program is what the organization needs to balance the rotation.
April 15, 2015
A WEBB OF INTRIGUE
MLBTR notes the oddity of the Orioles trading a player to a team for whom he immediately gets released.
The Dodgers announced that they have released recently acquired right-hander Ryan Webb. The Dodgers received a draft pick, a minor leaguer and Webb but it appears that LA was only interested in the draft pick while the Orioles were only interested in dumping Webb's salary of $2.75 million.
The Orioles sent the Webb, a Minor League catcher and a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft pick to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander ground ball pitcher Ben Rowen and the Dodgers No. 26 prospect, Minor League catcher Chris O'Brien.
The 29-year-old Webb will now be free to sign anywhere he chooses, and as a player with five-plus years of service time, he is entitled to reject his outright assignment and force the club to trade or release him (with pay). As such, interested parties will only be on the hook for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum on a big league deal, with the Dodgers owing the remainder of his salary. That’s not necessarily a bad outcome for Webb, who is still guaranteed his money and is now free to choose a club that presents him the clearest path to a role to his liking.
As Charlie noted in last night’s analysis, that Webb’s $2.75MM salary is apparently viewed as exorbitant is a bit puzzling in its own right. While he’s not a shutdown reliever, Webb’s never posted an ERA+ lower than 99 and has been better than that in recent years. He’s served as a reasonably effective reliever with the Padres, Marlins and Orioles to this point, working to a 3.38 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 56.1 percent ground-ball rate in his career. While it’s true that he doesn’t fit the mold of the hard-throwing power relievers that are proliferating today’s game — his 92 mph fastball is notably tamer than the 95 he averaged in his first two seasons — Webb has still shown the ability to retire big league hitters.
As I noted at the time of the trade, the Dodgers will add not only the No. 74 pick in the draft, but also the money that comes along with it. That pick comes with a slot value of $827K, which will be subtracted from Baltimore’s draft pool and added to that of the Dodgers. The Orioles’ draft money pool will drop from $7,677,400 to $6,850,400, while the Dodgers’ pool will rise from $6,954,700 to $7,781,700. And it should, of course, be noted that the Dodgers do come away with Minor Leaguer Brian Ward, a catcher. While he’s not an elite prospect, Ward ranked as the Orioles’ best defensive Minor League catcher (per Baseball America) prior to the 2013 season, so the Dodgers will at the very least add some depth and a strong defender to their ranks, even if Ward has never hit much.
As some general managers will call this deal, "gaming the system," as it allows one team to change their slotted draft money in order to draft first round talent that slip to second round due to signability (i.e. money bonus demand issues).
The Orioles sent the Webb, a Minor League catcher and a Competitive Balance (Round B) draft pick to Los Angeles in exchange for right-hander ground ball pitcher Ben Rowen and the Dodgers No. 26 prospect, Minor League catcher Chris O'Brien.
The 29-year-old Webb will now be free to sign anywhere he chooses, and as a player with five-plus years of service time, he is entitled to reject his outright assignment and force the club to trade or release him (with pay). As such, interested parties will only be on the hook for the pro-rated portion of the league minimum on a big league deal, with the Dodgers owing the remainder of his salary. That’s not necessarily a bad outcome for Webb, who is still guaranteed his money and is now free to choose a club that presents him the clearest path to a role to his liking.
As Charlie noted in last night’s analysis, that Webb’s $2.75MM salary is apparently viewed as exorbitant is a bit puzzling in its own right. While he’s not a shutdown reliever, Webb’s never posted an ERA+ lower than 99 and has been better than that in recent years. He’s served as a reasonably effective reliever with the Padres, Marlins and Orioles to this point, working to a 3.38 ERA with 6.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and a 56.1 percent ground-ball rate in his career. While it’s true that he doesn’t fit the mold of the hard-throwing power relievers that are proliferating today’s game — his 92 mph fastball is notably tamer than the 95 he averaged in his first two seasons — Webb has still shown the ability to retire big league hitters.
As I noted at the time of the trade, the Dodgers will add not only the No. 74 pick in the draft, but also the money that comes along with it. That pick comes with a slot value of $827K, which will be subtracted from Baltimore’s draft pool and added to that of the Dodgers. The Orioles’ draft money pool will drop from $7,677,400 to $6,850,400, while the Dodgers’ pool will rise from $6,954,700 to $7,781,700. And it should, of course, be noted that the Dodgers do come away with Minor Leaguer Brian Ward, a catcher. While he’s not an elite prospect, Ward ranked as the Orioles’ best defensive Minor League catcher (per Baseball America) prior to the 2013 season, so the Dodgers will at the very least add some depth and a strong defender to their ranks, even if Ward has never hit much.
As some general managers will call this deal, "gaming the system," as it allows one team to change their slotted draft money in order to draft first round talent that slip to second round due to signability (i.e. money bonus demand issues).
January 5, 2015
THE LOSS OF A PICK
One of the governors on the free agent market is the qualifying offer, where an old team offers a free agent to be a contract (last year it was $15.3 million) for one year. If the player declines, he is a full free agent. If another team signs him, that team must forfeit an unprotected first round draft pick.
Except for the elite, elite, the forfeiture of a draft pick stings general managers who now covet their draft picks for cheaper, long term control over talent.
James Shields finds himself in such a squeeze. He is ranked the third best FA pitcher on the market, but he has the yoke of the qualifying offer.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX reported that free agent starter Shields has a five-year, $110 million offer on the table from an unknown team, most likely the Yankees, Tigers, and Angels. These high budget teams would make the most sense if they are willing to forfeit a draft pick for the privilege of signing the right-hander.
The Yankees are the one team that does not mind losing draft picks to sign FA talent, because most likely they will receive draft picks when their free agents go on the open market. In essence, the Yankees are merely moving down 5 or 6 slots to the supplemental round to pick up one or two more bodies prior to the second round.
Shields rap is that he is a final injury away from being shut down for good. Jon Lester already hit is jackpot with the Cubs ($155 million) and Max Scherzer is holding out for an unattainable sum of $200 million, so Shields seems the most "reasonable" #1 starter left on the market since the Dodgers filled out their rotation depth with two second tier starters, Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson.
Except for the elite, elite, the forfeiture of a draft pick stings general managers who now covet their draft picks for cheaper, long term control over talent.
James Shields finds himself in such a squeeze. He is ranked the third best FA pitcher on the market, but he has the yoke of the qualifying offer.
Ken Rosenthal of FOX reported that free agent starter Shields has a five-year, $110 million offer on the table from an unknown team, most likely the Yankees, Tigers, and Angels. These high budget teams would make the most sense if they are willing to forfeit a draft pick for the privilege of signing the right-hander.
The Yankees are the one team that does not mind losing draft picks to sign FA talent, because most likely they will receive draft picks when their free agents go on the open market. In essence, the Yankees are merely moving down 5 or 6 slots to the supplemental round to pick up one or two more bodies prior to the second round.
Shields rap is that he is a final injury away from being shut down for good. Jon Lester already hit is jackpot with the Cubs ($155 million) and Max Scherzer is holding out for an unattainable sum of $200 million, so Shields seems the most "reasonable" #1 starter left on the market since the Dodgers filled out their rotation depth with two second tier starters, Brandon McCarthy and Brett Anderson.
December 13, 2014
RULE 5 RESULTS
At the end of the Winter Meetings, MLB held the annual Rule 5 draft, which eligible players not protected on 40 man rosters could be selected for full major league service in 2015. A player selected must stay on his team's 25 man roster for the entire year, or be sent back to the original club.
The Cubs lost three players in the draft process. The White Sox lost two players.
What is quite surprising is that the Cubs picked Rockie shortstop Taylor Featherston in the major league phase, putting him on the 25 man roster. Featherston, 25, has never played above Class AA ball. He hit .260, 16 HR, 57 RBI last season. He has some power, and can play three infield positions (SS, 2B, 3B) so he projects as the 25th man, a utility infielder. Afterward, the Cubs traded him to the Angels for cash considerations.
ROUND 1
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: C Oscar Hernandez, Rays
2. Colorado Rockies: IF Mark Canha, Marlins
3. Texas Rangers: OF Delino DeShields Jr., Astros
4. Houston Astros: RHP Jason Garcia, Red Sox
5. Minnesota Twins: RHP J.R. Graham, Braves
6. Boston Red Sox: RHP Jandel Gustave, Astros
7. Chicago Cubs: SS Taylor Featherston, Rockies
8. Philadelphia Phillies: IF David Herrera, Rangers
9. Miami Marlins: LHP Andrew McKirahan, Cubs
10. New York Mets: LHP Sean Gilmartin, Twins
11. Atlanta Braves: RHP Daniel Winkler, Rockies
12. Seattle Mariners: LHP David Rollins, Astros
13. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Logan Verrett, Mets
The Cubs lost three players in the draft process. The White Sox lost two players.
What is quite surprising is that the Cubs picked Rockie shortstop Taylor Featherston in the major league phase, putting him on the 25 man roster. Featherston, 25, has never played above Class AA ball. He hit .260, 16 HR, 57 RBI last season. He has some power, and can play three infield positions (SS, 2B, 3B) so he projects as the 25th man, a utility infielder. Afterward, the Cubs traded him to the Angels for cash considerations.
ROUND 1
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: C Oscar Hernandez, Rays
2. Colorado Rockies: IF Mark Canha, Marlins
3. Texas Rangers: OF Delino DeShields Jr., Astros
4. Houston Astros: RHP Jason Garcia, Red Sox
5. Minnesota Twins: RHP J.R. Graham, Braves
6. Boston Red Sox: RHP Jandel Gustave, Astros
7. Chicago Cubs: SS Taylor Featherston, Rockies
8. Philadelphia Phillies: IF David Herrera, Rangers
9. Miami Marlins: LHP Andrew McKirahan, Cubs
10. New York Mets: LHP Sean Gilmartin, Twins
11. Atlanta Braves: RHP Daniel Winkler, Rockies
12. Seattle Mariners: LHP David Rollins, Astros
13. Baltimore Orioles: RHP Logan Verrett, Mets
ROUND 2
14. Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Andrew Oliver, Pirates
TRIPLE-A PHASE
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Timothy Crabbe, Reds
2. Colorado Rockies: RHP Kyle Simon, Phillies
3. Texas Rangers: 1B Roderick Shoulders, Cubs
4. Houston Astros: C Luis Flores, Cubs
5. Minnesota Twins: RHP Greg Peavey, Mets
6. Chicago White Sox: RHP Peter Tago, Rockies
7. Chicago Cubs: OF Ariel Ovando, Astros
8. Cincinnati Reds: C Camden Maron, Mets
9. Miami Marlins: LHP Matthew Tomshaw, Twins
10. San Diego Padres: SS Juan Gamboa, Mets
11. Tampa Bay Rays: RF Luis Urena, Pirates
12. Atlanta Braves: C Steven Rodriguez, D-backs
13. Cleveland Indians: RHP Delvy Francisco, Phillies
14. San Francisco Giants: RHP Ramon Del Orbe, Marlins
15. Detroit Tigers: RHP Jheyson Manzueta, Marlins
16. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Tyler Waldron, Pirates
17. Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Peter Lavin, Phillies
18. Baltimore Orioles: OF Sean Halton, Brewers
19. Los Angeles Angels: IF Chris Curley, White Sox
20. Texas Rangers: SS Hiram Martinez, Marlins
21. Cincinnati Reds: RHP Euclides Leyer, White Sox
22. Miami Marlins: 1B Harold Riggins, Reds
23. Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Michael O'Brien, Orioles
24. San Francisco Giants: CF Brett Jackson, D-backs
25. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Alexander Santana, Orioles
26. Los Angeles Angels: SS Pedro Ruiz, D-backs
27. Miami Marlins: LHP Alexander Burgos, Tigers
28. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Randy Fontanez, Mets
29. Los Angeles Angels: RF Kentrail Davis, Brewers
30. Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Nathan Samson, D-backs
14. Philadelphia Phillies: LHP Andrew Oliver, Pirates
TRIPLE-A PHASE
1. Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Timothy Crabbe, Reds
2. Colorado Rockies: RHP Kyle Simon, Phillies
3. Texas Rangers: 1B Roderick Shoulders, Cubs
4. Houston Astros: C Luis Flores, Cubs
5. Minnesota Twins: RHP Greg Peavey, Mets
6. Chicago White Sox: RHP Peter Tago, Rockies
7. Chicago Cubs: OF Ariel Ovando, Astros
8. Cincinnati Reds: C Camden Maron, Mets
9. Miami Marlins: LHP Matthew Tomshaw, Twins
10. San Diego Padres: SS Juan Gamboa, Mets
11. Tampa Bay Rays: RF Luis Urena, Pirates
12. Atlanta Braves: C Steven Rodriguez, D-backs
13. Cleveland Indians: RHP Delvy Francisco, Phillies
14. San Francisco Giants: RHP Ramon Del Orbe, Marlins
15. Detroit Tigers: RHP Jheyson Manzueta, Marlins
16. St. Louis Cardinals: RHP Tyler Waldron, Pirates
17. Los Angeles Dodgers: OF Peter Lavin, Phillies
18. Baltimore Orioles: OF Sean Halton, Brewers
19. Los Angeles Angels: IF Chris Curley, White Sox
20. Texas Rangers: SS Hiram Martinez, Marlins
21. Cincinnati Reds: RHP Euclides Leyer, White Sox
22. Miami Marlins: 1B Harold Riggins, Reds
23. Tampa Bay Rays: RHP Michael O'Brien, Orioles
24. San Francisco Giants: CF Brett Jackson, D-backs
25. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Alexander Santana, Orioles
26. Los Angeles Angels: SS Pedro Ruiz, D-backs
27. Miami Marlins: LHP Alexander Burgos, Tigers
28. Los Angeles Dodgers: RHP Randy Fontanez, Mets
29. Los Angeles Angels: RF Kentrail Davis, Brewers
30. Los Angeles Dodgers: SS Nathan Samson, D-backs
November 30, 2014
BA RULE 5 DRAFT LIST
Baseball America, the bible of the minor leagues, has a list of the most intriguing prospects available at the winter meetings Rule 5 draft. Though the Cubs have a full 40 man roster, it is subject to at least three waivers to make room for other acquisitions. The Cubs, like most other teams that have picked a Rule 5 choice (and have to keep him on the major league roster for entire season), have had mixed results.
Here is the list with some personal commentary.
Steven Baron, c, Mariners: An excellent defensive catcher who made it to Double-A last year. His bat is light but he’s not completely lost at the plate, so a team in need of a backup catcher could do a lot worse. Both the Cubs and White Sox are in need for depth at catching. However, the White Sox are looking to upgrade their catcher right now, while the Cubs should be content with Castillo for another year (even despite the Martin FA reports). Baker was a nominal back up last season, so anything is an upgrade on the Cub roster.
Mark Canha, 1b, Marlins: A team looking for a backup corner bat could be interested. Canha has an above-average hit tool with average power. Primarily a first baseman, he can play third base or left field in a pinch, which gives him a potential backup role. He faced a numbers game with the Marlins, as Justin Bour (on the 40-man roster) has a pretty similar profile. Bour is a former Cub prospect, so from a valuation standpoint the Cubs probably will not be interested. The White Sox have added LaRoche to the 1B mix, but still need a back up third baseman.
Edgar de la Rosa, rhp, Tigers: Like velocity? The massive 6-foot-8 de la Rosa can run it up to 100 mph at his best and pairs it with a usable change-up. One Florida State League evaluator said he “goes to the mound with a 7 fastball every start.” He was a starter in high Class A this past season, but would fit in a big league bullpen. The White Sox love Big Arms and power pitchers. The White Sox have a need to shore up their bullpen. The White Sox also have not been hesitant to promote young arms to the team to be coached by pitching guru Don Cooper. If available, the White Sox could chose de la Rosa as a cheap alternative to additional free agent arms.
Delino DeShields, of, Astros: Some teams will be turned off by his well-documented problems with not always showing his best effort—he’s been pulled from multiple games over the years for not running out balls. But other teams may be intrigued by some of the best tools in the Rule 5 draft. The minors’ only 10-100 man ever (12 home runs, 101 steals in 2012), DeShields plays an adequate center field, can also play second base, has more pop than most speedsters and has shown excellent on-base skills. Can a change of scenery do a player a mental make-over? Maybe, maybe not. But since the Cubs have nothing really spectacular in the outfield (except the hope of Soler in RF), De Shields, or someone like him, could actually give the team a real lead off hitter. Another cheap alternative to a free agent.
Jarlin Garcia, lhp, Marlins: Big arm who would be making a massive jump from low Class A Greensboro to the big leagues; Garcia has earned above-average grades for his fastball (91-94 mph most nights) and curve. He also finished strong, with a 1.03 ERA in his final 35 innings. Class A pitchers elevated to the majors rarely do well; the level of competition jump is too steep. Unless a team already has a solid bullpen, stashing a guy for mop up duty really regresses a pitcher's progress with little return. Most teams will pass here.
Mychal Givens, rhp, Orioles: The converted shortstop has plus velocity (93-95 mph), a solid slider and he throws from a low slot that makes it hard for righthanders to pick up the ball. This guy seems like a righty specialist/project that maybe a team with a deep bullpen can use. Does not fit into Cubs or White Sox plans.
Jandel Gustave, rhp, Astros: In a game in which power arms are coveted, Gustave throws as hard as anyone. Up to 100 mph at his best, Gustave would be making a massive leap to the big leagues. He struggled in the low Class A Midwest League. But a team that isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot in 2015 could decide to stash him in a limited role. A better ceiling than Givens, but the same leap to the majors problems. But the White Sox brass could be awed by triple digit fastball to take a flyer on him.
Gregory Infante, rhp, Blue Jays: A big league alum (2010 with the White Sox), Infante can’t paint the corners, but his top-of-the-scale fastball (91-97 mph and has touched 100) plus an average slider was effective enough in limited action in Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’s throwing well in the Venezuelan League for La Guaira. A team without a proven or reliable 5th starter could go for a pitcher with some experience (and the White Sox know him), but the inability to control the plate means more minor league seasoning; pass.
Andrew McKirahan, lhp, Cubs: He’s a lefty who has come on lately. A reliever at Texas, McKirahan had Tommy John surgery in 2012 which cost him much of two seasons and has set him back in his development. He started to return to form this season as his fastball jumped up to 92-96 mph this year that he mixes with a fringe-average breaking ball. Just don’t expect him to be a lefty specialist. McKirahan has been tougher on righthanders than lefthanded hitters every where he’s gone since he returned to the mound after his surgery. Rarely do teams select a player who is basically still in rehab mode to a major league contract. This is why the Cubs did not protect him in the draft, injury history is a major factor for teams not to select a Rule 5 candidate.
Breyvic Valera, 2b, Cardinals: An athletic second baseman who had a great start in high Class A and was OK in Double-A last season, Valera also played in the Arizona Fall League (13-for-39). He has always drawn tons of walks but has zero power. He doesn’t play shortstop effectively, which limits his chances of sticking as a backup utility infielder but he can also play in the outfield. That said, the Cardinals acquired and protected middle infielders Ty Kelly and Dean Anna over keeping Valera. If the White Sox trade SS Ramirez in the off-season, the team may want to add depth in the middle infield. But Valera is too raw to give a bench position in 2015.
Here is the list with some personal commentary.
Steven Baron, c, Mariners: An excellent defensive catcher who made it to Double-A last year. His bat is light but he’s not completely lost at the plate, so a team in need of a backup catcher could do a lot worse. Both the Cubs and White Sox are in need for depth at catching. However, the White Sox are looking to upgrade their catcher right now, while the Cubs should be content with Castillo for another year (even despite the Martin FA reports). Baker was a nominal back up last season, so anything is an upgrade on the Cub roster.
Mark Canha, 1b, Marlins: A team looking for a backup corner bat could be interested. Canha has an above-average hit tool with average power. Primarily a first baseman, he can play third base or left field in a pinch, which gives him a potential backup role. He faced a numbers game with the Marlins, as Justin Bour (on the 40-man roster) has a pretty similar profile. Bour is a former Cub prospect, so from a valuation standpoint the Cubs probably will not be interested. The White Sox have added LaRoche to the 1B mix, but still need a back up third baseman.
Edgar de la Rosa, rhp, Tigers: Like velocity? The massive 6-foot-8 de la Rosa can run it up to 100 mph at his best and pairs it with a usable change-up. One Florida State League evaluator said he “goes to the mound with a 7 fastball every start.” He was a starter in high Class A this past season, but would fit in a big league bullpen. The White Sox love Big Arms and power pitchers. The White Sox have a need to shore up their bullpen. The White Sox also have not been hesitant to promote young arms to the team to be coached by pitching guru Don Cooper. If available, the White Sox could chose de la Rosa as a cheap alternative to additional free agent arms.
Delino DeShields, of, Astros: Some teams will be turned off by his well-documented problems with not always showing his best effort—he’s been pulled from multiple games over the years for not running out balls. But other teams may be intrigued by some of the best tools in the Rule 5 draft. The minors’ only 10-100 man ever (12 home runs, 101 steals in 2012), DeShields plays an adequate center field, can also play second base, has more pop than most speedsters and has shown excellent on-base skills. Can a change of scenery do a player a mental make-over? Maybe, maybe not. But since the Cubs have nothing really spectacular in the outfield (except the hope of Soler in RF), De Shields, or someone like him, could actually give the team a real lead off hitter. Another cheap alternative to a free agent.
Jarlin Garcia, lhp, Marlins: Big arm who would be making a massive jump from low Class A Greensboro to the big leagues; Garcia has earned above-average grades for his fastball (91-94 mph most nights) and curve. He also finished strong, with a 1.03 ERA in his final 35 innings. Class A pitchers elevated to the majors rarely do well; the level of competition jump is too steep. Unless a team already has a solid bullpen, stashing a guy for mop up duty really regresses a pitcher's progress with little return. Most teams will pass here.
Mychal Givens, rhp, Orioles: The converted shortstop has plus velocity (93-95 mph), a solid slider and he throws from a low slot that makes it hard for righthanders to pick up the ball. This guy seems like a righty specialist/project that maybe a team with a deep bullpen can use. Does not fit into Cubs or White Sox plans.
Jandel Gustave, rhp, Astros: In a game in which power arms are coveted, Gustave throws as hard as anyone. Up to 100 mph at his best, Gustave would be making a massive leap to the big leagues. He struggled in the low Class A Midwest League. But a team that isn’t going to compete for a playoff spot in 2015 could decide to stash him in a limited role. A better ceiling than Givens, but the same leap to the majors problems. But the White Sox brass could be awed by triple digit fastball to take a flyer on him.
Gregory Infante, rhp, Blue Jays: A big league alum (2010 with the White Sox), Infante can’t paint the corners, but his top-of-the-scale fastball (91-97 mph and has touched 100) plus an average slider was effective enough in limited action in Double-A and Triple-A last season. He’s throwing well in the Venezuelan League for La Guaira. A team without a proven or reliable 5th starter could go for a pitcher with some experience (and the White Sox know him), but the inability to control the plate means more minor league seasoning; pass.
Andrew McKirahan, lhp, Cubs: He’s a lefty who has come on lately. A reliever at Texas, McKirahan had Tommy John surgery in 2012 which cost him much of two seasons and has set him back in his development. He started to return to form this season as his fastball jumped up to 92-96 mph this year that he mixes with a fringe-average breaking ball. Just don’t expect him to be a lefty specialist. McKirahan has been tougher on righthanders than lefthanded hitters every where he’s gone since he returned to the mound after his surgery. Rarely do teams select a player who is basically still in rehab mode to a major league contract. This is why the Cubs did not protect him in the draft, injury history is a major factor for teams not to select a Rule 5 candidate.
Breyvic Valera, 2b, Cardinals: An athletic second baseman who had a great start in high Class A and was OK in Double-A last season, Valera also played in the Arizona Fall League (13-for-39). He has always drawn tons of walks but has zero power. He doesn’t play shortstop effectively, which limits his chances of sticking as a backup utility infielder but he can also play in the outfield. That said, the Cardinals acquired and protected middle infielders Ty Kelly and Dean Anna over keeping Valera. If the White Sox trade SS Ramirez in the off-season, the team may want to add depth in the middle infield. But Valera is too raw to give a bench position in 2015.
November 19, 2014
RULE 5 CUBS
The Cubs protected 40 man roster stands at 38.
In order to protect minor league prospects who have accumulated enough service time in the minors to be eligible for the December winter meetings Rule 5 draft have to be promoted to the 40 man roster. However, most likely, the Cubs hold open two major league roster spots for potential free agent signings.
If not, the Cubs can only protect two (2) players from this list. (With teams not taking very many players in the Rule 5 draft, since that player must be kept on the team's active 25 man roster for the entire 2015 season or lose him, the chances of the Cubs losing a player is remote.) However, the one guy that pops out as a possibility is RHP C.J. Edwards.
CUBS MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN DECEMBER 2014 RULE 5 DRAFT (last updated 11-3-2014):
Gilberto Abreu, RHP
Gioskar Amaya, INF
John Andreoli, OF
Jeffry Antigua, LHP
Delbis Arcila, OF
Jeffrey Baez, OF
Frank Batista, RHP
Marcelo Carreno, RHP
Zach Cates, RHP
Hunter Cervenka, LHP
Pin-Chieh Chen, OF
Gerardo Concepcion, LHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Willson Contreras, C
Blake Cooper, RHP
Wes Darvill, INF
Taylor Davis, C
Alberto Diaz, LHP
C. J. Edwards, RHP
Kevin Encarnacion, OF
Luis Flores, C
P. J. Francescon, RHP
Humberto Garcia, INF
Victor Garcia, LHP
Dustin Geiger, INF
Anthony Giansanti, OF
Jae-Hoon Ha, OF
Marco Hernandez, INF
Michael Jensen, RHP
Austin Kirk, LHP
Matt Loosen, RHP
Jeff Lorick, LHP
Barret Loux, RHP
Dillon Maples, RHP
Andrew McKirahan, LHP
Trey McNutt, RHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Alberto Mineo, C
Yoanner Negrin, RHP
Carlos Penalver, INF
Felix Pena, RHP
Starling Peralta, RHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Ivan Pineyro, RHP
Austin Reed, RHP
Jose Rosario, RHP
Julio Sanchez, RHP
Tayler Scott, RHP
Rock Shoulders, 1B
Rubi Silva, OF
Brian Smith, LHP
Elliot Soto, INF
Antonio Valerio, C
Yao-Lin Wang, RHP
Ben Wells, RHP
Tony Zych, RHP
In order to protect minor league prospects who have accumulated enough service time in the minors to be eligible for the December winter meetings Rule 5 draft have to be promoted to the 40 man roster. However, most likely, the Cubs hold open two major league roster spots for potential free agent signings.
If not, the Cubs can only protect two (2) players from this list. (With teams not taking very many players in the Rule 5 draft, since that player must be kept on the team's active 25 man roster for the entire 2015 season or lose him, the chances of the Cubs losing a player is remote.) However, the one guy that pops out as a possibility is RHP C.J. Edwards.
CUBS MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN DECEMBER 2014 RULE 5 DRAFT (last updated 11-3-2014):
Gilberto Abreu, RHP
Gioskar Amaya, INF
John Andreoli, OF
Jeffry Antigua, LHP
Delbis Arcila, OF
Jeffrey Baez, OF
Frank Batista, RHP
Marcelo Carreno, RHP
Zach Cates, RHP
Hunter Cervenka, LHP
Pin-Chieh Chen, OF
Gerardo Concepcion, LHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Willson Contreras, C
Blake Cooper, RHP
Wes Darvill, INF
Taylor Davis, C
Alberto Diaz, LHP
C. J. Edwards, RHP
Kevin Encarnacion, OF
Luis Flores, C
P. J. Francescon, RHP
Humberto Garcia, INF
Victor Garcia, LHP
Dustin Geiger, INF
Anthony Giansanti, OF
Jae-Hoon Ha, OF
Marco Hernandez, INF
Michael Jensen, RHP
Austin Kirk, LHP
Matt Loosen, RHP
Jeff Lorick, LHP
Barret Loux, RHP
Dillon Maples, RHP
Andrew McKirahan, LHP
Trey McNutt, RHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Alberto Mineo, C
Yoanner Negrin, RHP
Carlos Penalver, INF
Felix Pena, RHP
Starling Peralta, RHP (Article XX-D player - can elect free-agency if drafted & then later re-claimed by Cubs)
Ivan Pineyro, RHP
Austin Reed, RHP
Jose Rosario, RHP
Julio Sanchez, RHP
Tayler Scott, RHP
Rock Shoulders, 1B
Rubi Silva, OF
Brian Smith, LHP
Elliot Soto, INF
Antonio Valerio, C
Yao-Lin Wang, RHP
Ben Wells, RHP
Tony Zych, RHP
August 23, 2014
SOUR GRAPES
Sour grapes and more excuses. It has come a trend with the Cubs front office.
First, they said their original plan of overspending on hard to sign draft player and international prospects was derailed by the new CBA.
Second, Epstein realized a year or more into the gig that the Cubs were highly dependent on gate attendance for baseball operations. And since the revised plan was to tank several seasons in a row to get down payroll and get a higher draft pick, he found himself prospect rich but cash poor.
Now, Epstein is grumbling about the Cardinals receiving a bonus draft pick in the 2015 draft.
St. Louis got a bonus pick for the 2015 First-Year Player Draft (just after the first round) for the Competitive Balance Lottery. The Cards have made the playoffs 10 times since 2000 and advanced to the NLCS and have drafted extremely well the past decade.
Epstein told CSNChicago “I could talk all day about the Cardinals and how much we hold them in high regard. That’s a fantastic franchise. They have been for the better part of a century. They do extremely well from a baseball standpoint, and from a revenue standpoint. That’s probably the last organization in baseball that needs that kind of (an) annual gift.”
He continued. “Because it’s not necessarily the type of thing that they need, given their performance on the field and off the field. They do a fantastic job. It just doesn’t seem like something they need at this point.”
The Cardinals are eligible for the Competitive Balance Lottery because they play in one of the 10 smallest markets (by population) in Major League Baseball. USA Today writer Bob Nightengale predicts that the Cardinals will use this high draft pick as trade bait to land Rays ace David Price. If so, Epstein will have more bitterness for his interdivisional rival. Welcome to Chicago, Theo. It is not Red Sox-Yankees, but it is close.
First, they said their original plan of overspending on hard to sign draft player and international prospects was derailed by the new CBA.
Second, Epstein realized a year or more into the gig that the Cubs were highly dependent on gate attendance for baseball operations. And since the revised plan was to tank several seasons in a row to get down payroll and get a higher draft pick, he found himself prospect rich but cash poor.
Now, Epstein is grumbling about the Cardinals receiving a bonus draft pick in the 2015 draft.
St. Louis got a bonus pick for the 2015 First-Year Player Draft (just after the first round) for the Competitive Balance Lottery. The Cards have made the playoffs 10 times since 2000 and advanced to the NLCS and have drafted extremely well the past decade.
Epstein told CSNChicago “I could talk all day about the Cardinals and how much we hold them in high regard. That’s a fantastic franchise. They have been for the better part of a century. They do extremely well from a baseball standpoint, and from a revenue standpoint. That’s probably the last organization in baseball that needs that kind of (an) annual gift.”
He continued. “Because it’s not necessarily the type of thing that they need, given their performance on the field and off the field. They do a fantastic job. It just doesn’t seem like something they need at this point.”
The Cardinals are eligible for the Competitive Balance Lottery because they play in one of the 10 smallest markets (by population) in Major League Baseball. USA Today writer Bob Nightengale predicts that the Cardinals will use this high draft pick as trade bait to land Rays ace David Price. If so, Epstein will have more bitterness for his interdivisional rival. Welcome to Chicago, Theo. It is not Red Sox-Yankees, but it is close.
July 23, 2014
HOUSTON, WE HAVE A PROBLEM
In certain respects, the Cubs have mimicked the Astros in the course of recent draft history. The Astros have tanked many seasons in order to get the top draft picks. In theory, high picks like #1s are easier to identify potential star players.
But with all draft prospects, even picking high does not yield high grades.
In the past four drafts, the Astros have selected the following first round players:
2010 (#8) Delino DeShields Jr., OF
Currently AA ball: .239 BA, 5 HR, 34 RBI
2010 (#19) Mike Foltynewicz RHP
Current AAA ball: 7-6, 5.12 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, 1.96 K/BB
2010 (#33) Michael Kvasnicka C
Twins AA ball: .275 BA, 9 HR, 44 RBI
(Acquired RHP Gonzlo Sanudo: A ball: 3-0, 4.20 ERA, 1.283 WHIP)
2011 (#11) George Springer OF
Astros: 78 GP, .231 BA, 20 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB, 1.8 WAR
2012 (#1) Carlos Correa SS
Current A ball: .325 BA, 6 HR, 57 RBI, 20 SB
2013 (#1) Mark Appel, RHP
Current A ball: 1-5, 10.80 ERA, 2.087 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB
2014 (#1) Brady Aiken
Current: Failed to Sign
While many teams have promoted their best 2010 prospects to the majors, the Astros, with three picks, have not had any one set the minor league world on fire. 2011 first rounder George Springer made a huge splash in his debut this season. He has shown the power numbers to stick in the majors, but his batting average (plate disclipine) is light. All in all, Houston is pleased with Springer's progress.
Likewise, 2012 #1 overall pick Correa is doing well in A ball. Remember, he was a high school draft choice so many teams allow for more low minor league time to get adjusted to pro ball. However, 2013 #1 overall pick Appel has been disappointing in A ball. A college standout pitcher, Appel was seen as a difficult signing in 2011. In 2012, he was classified as the best pitching prospect. Clearly, the hype has not translated into pro ball.
The fiasco about the injury-non-injury status of 2014's overall #1 pick Aiken also sets back the 2014 draft as a total bust. The juggling of the slot bonus pool with Aiken, and the pull back of offers, led to Houston losing their next two prized draft choices as well.
This is a real cautionary tale that any major league baseball fan needs to appreciate. In 7 first round draft picks, the Astros have currently only 1 major leaguer (Springer). That is a 14.2% success rate. Of the other six minor leaguers, only 1 has met his pre-draft potential (Correa). So there is a 17% chance that another first rounder will become a major league starter. Even the best prospects don't necessarily pan out.
The Astros main strategy was to draft high and acquire six years of cheap control of home grown major league players. With the lack of first round success, it will be hard to imagine the plan coming together any time soon.
But with all draft prospects, even picking high does not yield high grades.
In the past four drafts, the Astros have selected the following first round players:
2010 (#8) Delino DeShields Jr., OF
Currently AA ball: .239 BA, 5 HR, 34 RBI
2010 (#19) Mike Foltynewicz RHP
Current AAA ball: 7-6, 5.12 ERA, 1.469 WHIP, 1.96 K/BB
2010 (#33) Michael Kvasnicka C
Twins AA ball: .275 BA, 9 HR, 44 RBI
(Acquired RHP Gonzlo Sanudo: A ball: 3-0, 4.20 ERA, 1.283 WHIP)
2011 (#11) George Springer OF
Astros: 78 GP, .231 BA, 20 HR, 51 RBI, 5 SB, 1.8 WAR
2012 (#1) Carlos Correa SS
Current A ball: .325 BA, 6 HR, 57 RBI, 20 SB
2013 (#1) Mark Appel, RHP
Current A ball: 1-5, 10.80 ERA, 2.087 WHIP, 3.00 K/BB
2014 (#1) Brady Aiken
Current: Failed to Sign
While many teams have promoted their best 2010 prospects to the majors, the Astros, with three picks, have not had any one set the minor league world on fire. 2011 first rounder George Springer made a huge splash in his debut this season. He has shown the power numbers to stick in the majors, but his batting average (plate disclipine) is light. All in all, Houston is pleased with Springer's progress.
Likewise, 2012 #1 overall pick Correa is doing well in A ball. Remember, he was a high school draft choice so many teams allow for more low minor league time to get adjusted to pro ball. However, 2013 #1 overall pick Appel has been disappointing in A ball. A college standout pitcher, Appel was seen as a difficult signing in 2011. In 2012, he was classified as the best pitching prospect. Clearly, the hype has not translated into pro ball.
The fiasco about the injury-non-injury status of 2014's overall #1 pick Aiken also sets back the 2014 draft as a total bust. The juggling of the slot bonus pool with Aiken, and the pull back of offers, led to Houston losing their next two prized draft choices as well.
This is a real cautionary tale that any major league baseball fan needs to appreciate. In 7 first round draft picks, the Astros have currently only 1 major leaguer (Springer). That is a 14.2% success rate. Of the other six minor leaguers, only 1 has met his pre-draft potential (Correa). So there is a 17% chance that another first rounder will become a major league starter. Even the best prospects don't necessarily pan out.
The Astros main strategy was to draft high and acquire six years of cheap control of home grown major league players. With the lack of first round success, it will be hard to imagine the plan coming together any time soon.
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