Most baseball writers believe there will be several major upsets in the first round of the playoffs.
The reason is simple: it is a short series, best of three.
Any professional baseball team can win a series. The whole season is based upon short series.
Because of the shortened MLB season, each 2020 game had an equivalency of three regular games. If a 2020 team had a three game losing streak, it felt like it was a 9 game losing streak. Slow starts made teams bottom dwellers for a long time.
Most writers also felt that most clubs would be around .500. In the NL, it was a closer prediction. But as with last season, there has been a surge of pitching and a lack of hitting as the season winds down. The simple reason is that pitchers have again found that the high fastball is a good chase pitch. And umpires are calling it.
Pitching and defense wins championships. This season will bear that out.
But in the first round of the expanded playoffs, starting pitching will be the key. The first game of the series is worth about 3 regular playoff games (in a best of five match). It sets the tone. It gives the victor some breathing room.
But in reality, the starter in the second game is more important. Game 2 is either total victory or clawing back from the dead. Elimination games often put more pressure on the team that can close out their opponent. Some reverse psychology is at play. Good teams with good chemistry can change their fortune in an elimination game behind a quality starter.
The Game 2 starter can get the team a rare playoff off-day in a series sweep or keep his team alive to fight for another day.
If you are a manager, I would advise to set up your rotation with your BEST starter for Game 2. There is more at stake in Game 2 than Game 1. Game 3 is going to be a nervous wrecking ball for both clubs, so a veteran starter would be a preferred choice.
Because there will be no travel days because of the bubble playoff format, teams cannot just rely on three starters. Four man rotations will be a must. A too clever manager may throw a bullpen, all hands on deck fire drill.
You could probably slot your first series Game 2 starter as your second round No. 2 with the possibility of being a short rest Game 5 starter if necessary. If not, then he can move into the No. 1 role for the pennant series.
