KEY PLAYOFF STARTER

 Most baseball writers believe there will be several major upsets in the first round of the playoffs.

The reason is simple: it is a short series, best of three.

Any professional baseball team can win a series. The whole season is based upon short series. 

Because of the shortened MLB season, each 2020 game had an equivalency of three regular games. If a 2020 team had a three game losing streak, it felt like it was a 9 game losing streak. Slow starts made teams bottom dwellers for a long time.

Most writers also felt that most clubs would be around .500. In the NL, it was a closer prediction. But as with last season, there has been a surge of pitching and a lack of hitting as the season winds down. The simple reason is that pitchers have again found that the high fastball is a good chase pitch. And umpires are calling it.

Pitching and defense wins championships. This season will bear that out.

But in the first round of the expanded playoffs, starting pitching will be the key. The first game of the series is worth about 3 regular playoff games (in a best of five match). It sets the tone. It gives the victor some breathing room.

But in reality, the starter in the second game is more important. Game 2 is either total victory or clawing back from the dead. Elimination games often put more pressure on the team that can close out their opponent. Some reverse psychology is at play. Good teams with good chemistry can change their fortune in an elimination game behind a quality starter.

The Game 2 starter can get the team a rare playoff off-day in a series sweep or keep his team alive to fight for another day.

If you are a manager, I would advise to set up your rotation with your BEST starter for Game 2. There is more at stake in Game 2 than Game 1. Game 3 is going to be a nervous wrecking ball for both clubs, so a veteran starter would be a preferred choice.

Because there will be no travel days because of the bubble playoff format, teams cannot just rely on three starters. Four man rotations will be a must. A too clever manager may throw a bullpen, all hands on deck fire drill.

You could probably slot your first series Game 2 starter as your second round No. 2 with the possibility of being a short rest Game 5 starter if necessary. If not, then he can move into the No. 1 role for the pennant series.

ANOTHER BAD IDEA

Just before the strange 2020 season began, MLB and the union agreed to an expanded playoff.
As MLB continues to shovel "new" rules and game changes, why not add another bad one to the pile? The season is a mess to begin with.

According to ESPN, the agreement  is just for this season.

Playoffs now expand from 10 teams to 16. Fifty-three percent of all teams are now part of the 16-team expanded playoff proposal. Yeah, youth baseball participation awards are here!

But then it gets even worse.

The No. 1, 2, 3 seeds in each league—the Division winners—would pick their opponents among the other five teams. This is a hokey, cheesy television reality show STUNT. Does MLB have any institutional PRIDE left?

According to multiple reports, the top-three in each league will go to regular season division winners. According to Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci, the second place team in each division will also qualify for the postseason with the remaining two spots going to the teams with the next best records.

The real problem with this new format is that THE BEST TEAMS are not rewarded by the new system. The  division second place teams are automatically in the post-season even if their record is worse than other teams in their league. In a 60 game schedule, this may have sub-.500 clubs automatically making the post season and a club with an above .500 record sitting out.

But it is not about having the best teams playing for a championship. It is not about having the best product on the field.

"We are excited to announce the expansion of the 2020 Postseason," commissioner Rob Manfred said in a statement. "This season will be a spring to a new format that will allow more fans to experience playoff baseball. We look forward to a memorable Postseason concluding a year like no other and appreciate the continued partnership and enthusiasm of ESPN and TBS."

THIS!

The new playoff push was from the national networks who are trying to salvage some revenue by having more post-season games (which benefit MLB owners as well).

IS IT BETTER?

Is it better to love than to never love at all?

It seems that proverb is part of the ongoing discussions between MLB, the players union, players, agents and fans.

Agent Scott Boras wants a 162 game schedule no matter when the season starts. He thinks a Christmas Day World Series game would be fine. A cynic must assume that he wants a full season to earn full commissions from his players.

The national pandemic shut down has postponed the season start to probably May. It will take several weeks for teams to re-start spring training so pitchers have time to stretch out. Memorial Day may be the new opening day.

But for fans, it still is tradition. They want their team games played at home, not at a southern neutral site (especially for playoffs). Owners are in it for the revenue so appeasing the hard core fan base is a mutual obligation in the final schedule.

I think most people will be alright with an 81 game shortened season. The players are barking about getting a full year service time (so they can get to free agency quicker). It is doubtful that the players will get their full salary for a half season. A short season does put more teams into play for the post-season.

MLB has been pushing the boundaries of the season before this crisis. 2020 was supposed to begin in March. The playoffs are getting pushed into November. It is all television revenue driven decisions.

But there is still a small probability that the season could be cancelled (like the Toyko Olympics). The adjustment of the travel schedule, the possibility of bankruptcies to hotels, airlines etc. may make the logistics of even a short season a nightmare.

But the biggest hurdle may be overall fan interest. With no current pro sports, fans are re-wiring their entertainment habits. They are finding new things to do while isolated at home. The great unknown is how many of these baseball fans will drop their consumption of baseball. Many people can easily get over a lost love, but will people who love baseball let it go, too?

BAD IDEAS

A writer at NBC sports has decided that whenever baseball returns in 2020, it should hold a March Madness bracket tournament instead of a shortened season.

This is what happens when sports talkers and writers have no sports to talk or write about.

His idea is a seeded tournament with the two pennant winners having a first round bye. Each round would be a 9 game series.  Teams would move their way along to a World Series tandem.

The problem with this idea: it is crazy bad.

Owners will not want half their teams total 2020 revenue end with 9 games (or 4 home games at most). The players cannot pad their stats for the next contract if games played is only 9 in 2020.

Fans would not be happy with a "one and done" series.

The local television revenue would be zero since local broadcasters would be screwed over.

The owners will demand that no matter how many available dates, they will play 100, 75 or even 50 to crown pennant winners.

The lack of spring training is going to take a real bad toll on pitchers.  The new (and stupid) three batter pitcher rule is going to cause more injuries, even in a short season. Bullpen arms are not based on full innings' workload. One relief pitcher throws an inning, he is usually not available for a couple of days.

2020 is going to have many issues but fundamentally changing the schedule is nonsense.

A DIFFERENT KIND OF PLAYOFF

Baseball is very popular in South Korea. Many KBO stars have made it to the U.S. major leagues. The nation takes pride in its national team when it plays in international contests.

South Korea is a nation of only 51 million. It does field one league with ten sponsored teams (major corporations). The teams play 144 games in the regular season.

But the championship playoffs are interesting alternative to the American version of the post-season.

Five teams make the playoffs in Korea.

The 4th and 5th place teams are the Wild Cards. They play a one game winner-take-all contest. The winner of this Wild Card games goes on to play a best of five series against the 3rd place club the Semi-Playoff.

The winner of the Semi-Playoff plays the 2nd place team in a best of five Playoff series.

Then the winner of the Semi-Playoff series plays the 1st place team for the championship. The championship series is best of seven.

What is clear about the KBO playoff format is that it rewards regular season play. The regular season winner has an automatic berth in the championship series. It also makes teams that finish lower than the league winner to "earn" their way to the championship round.

One negative to this format is that the league regular season winner has to wait until their opponent goes through a playoff gauntlet. This year's Wild Card game was held on October 16. The first championship game (against the 1st and 2nd place clubs) began on November 4.

MLB continues to talk about future expansion or re-alignment. That also means potential more playoff games, which in the current format dilutes regular season accomplishments of the best teams.

A WHIMPER, A WHINE

Joe Maddon said the Cubs have four Game 7s in a row.

Such the optimist.

He also said there was nothing he could say to motivate his team in this time of crisis.

We thought he was the great motivator when the Cubs hired him.

Gordon Wittenmeyer of the Sun-Times got Bryant and Rizzo to admit that they are physically tired in this Dodgers series.

The whole team looks lethargic. The mental fielding errors show a glaring problem. The lack of plate discipline is the reason for weak offensive production. The whole team seems to be dragging their heels from game to game.

But how can the team be collectively "tired?"

Yes, the Nationals series was a roller coaster ride. But the Cubs have only played 8 games since the season ended in early October. And the Cubs had 7 days off during that time period. And Maddon rested his regulars prior to the end of the regular season.

Part of it could be mental, part physical.

And the way Maddon managed the Nationals series had a direct, negative impact on the NLCS. He has a habit of doing things drastically different in the post-season than in the regular season, especially with his pitching staff. Starters as relievers, relievers pitching more innings than normal, and the quick hook on starters.

Perhaps the hitters are feeling the pressure of a weak bullpen. Perhaps the starters feel pressure of having to be perfect since the offense is not scoring runs. Perhaps the bullpen is imploding because of the pressure of bad defense plays leading to stressful relief appearances.

The Cubs are backed into a corner. A cornered, battered dog should attack. But in the case of the Cubs, they may just go out with a whimper.

If we look back at the preseason expectations, the Cubs were destined to get to the World Series and probably repeat. The young core had just learned how to win championships.

But apparently, the continuing excuse has been the young core has not learned how to celebrate championships. The championship "hang over" lasted to the All-Star break (and some whisper it is still present). If the Cub players and staff thought the Cubs were so good that they could "turn it on" at any point in the season or a series, we know now that is not true. It has never been true. Preparation, research, training, repetition and baseball intelligence of a pro player is a daily exercise.

The teams remaining in the playoffs have one thing in common: a lights out bullpen. The Yankees have former closer Robertson coming in at any inning like a firefighter containing a potential out-of-control blaze. The Dodgers use Morrow in a way to take down the other team's best hitters. A bullpen that can take the ball in the 6th and shut out an opponent is the key to victory - - - it gives the offense 12 outs to mount a comeback or hold the lead.

The 2017 Cubs did rest on their 2016 laurels. Schwarber is no longer Mr. October. Arrieta is no longer Cy Young, Jr. Hendricks looks like Older Greg Maddux. Baez looks like a lost rookie at the plate. The general expectations for 2017 were diminished by the WS win. But it is how the Cubs are losing is disappointing to many fans.

Some people are comparing the Cubs to the Blackhawks. The current Hawks won their first Stanley Cup with a young core surrounded by veterans. But they could not repeat. The team had to re-tool for the second championship and then again for the third. They had to re-learn the hunger to get the title. Hopefully, this can be the Cubs projected cycle: re-tool to win another championship before the window closes (i.e., Bryant and/or Rizzo's free agency).

THE NEXT STEP

The Cubs won the NL Central last night with a good performance by John Lackey.

Which puts into question how the Cubs will arrange their post season roster.

Almost everyone believed a week ago that Lackey would be this year's Hammel, the odd man out of the post season roster.

But with Arrieta admitting that he could "not push off properly" during his last start, no one can guarantee that Jake will be good Jake in the playoffs. If he continues to struggle, then that puts Montgomery into long relief role which cuts down on his usefulness and situational strengths like how Francona used Miller in the Indians World Series run.

But the other issue is whether Lester can return to being playoff good Lester. He still seems to be struggling and getting hit hard early in games. He is another candidate for a quick pull in the playoffs. That means that the Cubs need another long reliever on the 25 man roster. Hence, Lackey, who never has pitched out of the pen, may make the roster as an emergency starter-long reliever.

Playoff games are tighter by definition. Pitching becomes a premium along with good defense. The Cubs pitching in the second half has been good and bad.

The Nationals have some pop from the left side so Maddon will want to have enough quality lefties on the pitching staff. But can he trust Wilson out of the pen to neutralize Harper in a key situation?

The Cubs have a week to evaluate the bullpen to make final choices.

The current buzz in social media is that the presumed rotation should be flipped: start Hendricks game 1, then Quintana, then Lester, then Arrieta. It may not matter the final order if the bullpen is called to pick up games in the 6th inning (or earlier).

Maddon has tried lately to get the bullpen in rhythm. He has used Strop-Rondon-Davis to pitch an inning a piece to close out games.

Maddon has also used all three catchers (a banged up Contreras, Avila and Rivera) down the stretch. He may be thinking about keeping all three (in case Contreras injuries flare up). That would mean one less field bench player, most like LaStella, who may lose a spot anyway if Maddon wants to have an extra relief pitcher.

Barring another injury or something strange, the preliminary playoff roster:

OF (5)  Heyward, Jay, Happ, Schwarber, Almora
IN (5)  Bryant, Russell, Baez, Rizzo, Zobrist
C (2) Contreras, Avila
SP (4) Hendricks, Quintana, Lester, Arrieta
RP (9) Montgomery, Duensing, Wilson, Edwards, Strop, Rondon, Davis, Lackey, Grimm

THE REAL ROTATION

After two nail biting victories over the Brewers, the Cubs are crawling to the post season.

Talk has turned to the playoff starting rotation. There are questions for every current Cub starter including the swing man Montgomery.

Lester has not been the sharp playoff ace in his last 3 starts.
Arrieta is coming back from a hamstring injury.
Quintana has good outings and bad innings.
Lackey has been very consistent in his last 4 starts, but not overpowering.
Hendricks seems to be finding his last season groove but does he have the stamina to finish strong?

Montgomery pitched a quality start one-hitter in his last spot start. Maddon seems to be clear that he wants Monty in the bullpen in the playoffs.

Most assume that you want your "ace" to start Game 1 of the playoffs. But the post season games have tightened a bit with less travel days so if you are really projecting a World Series appearance, you have to manage the rotation prior to the end of the season.

Everyone projects the Cubs to use a four man rotation (with Lackey as being the odd man out).

The NL playoffs for the Cubs looks like this:

Game 1 NLDS Friday Oct 6
Game 2 NLDS Sat Oct 7
Game 3 NLDS Mon Oct 9 (home)
Game 4 NLDS Tue Oct 10 (home)
Game 5 NLDS Thur Oct 12  (6 days after Game 1)

When you look at this set up, the Cubs get two home games. Lester and Hendricks pitch better at home than on the road. So do you put Arrieta and Quintana 1-2?

The next round of the playoffs looks like this:

Game 1 NLCS  Sat Oct 14 (2 days after Game 5; 7 days after Game 2 NLDS)
Game 2 NLCS Sun Oct 15
Game 3 NLCS Tue Oct 17
Game 4 NLCS Wed Oct 18
Game 5 NLCS Thur Oct 19 (5 days after Game 1 NLCS)
Game 6 NLCS Sat Oct 20 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 NLCS Sun Oct 21 (5 days after Game 3)

The oddity is that the Game 6 pitcher will have more rest than the Game 5 or Game 7 starter.
Would it be prudent to make sure an older pitcher like Lester fit into Game 6?

The World Series looks like this:

Game 1 Tue Oct 24 (2 days after pennant series; 5 days since Game 5 start)
Game 2 Wed Oct 25
Game 3 Fri Oct 26
Game 4 Sat Oct 28
Game 5 Sun Oct 29 (5 days after Game 1)
Game 6 Tue Oct 31 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 Wed Nov 1 (5 days after Game 3)

It would appear your Game 5 NLCS starter would be the WS Game 1 starter on 5 days rest.
The Game 1 starter would also be the Game 5 starter on 5 days rest (and would be available in the bullpen for Game 7 like Maddon did with Lester last season).

If you think each round will be very close, then the pitching staff has to determine who should pitch the final game in each series.

You have to work backwards from WS Game 7 with your ace.
Your ace would pitch WS Game 7 and 3; Game 6 and  2 of the NLCS; Game 3 of the NLDS.
Game 3 of the NLDS is a key game coming off two road games in a short series against the Nationals. Perhaps Lester with his better home record and playoff experience in meaningful games would fit in as the #3 pitcher in the Cubs playoff rotation.

The other argument is to give him an extra day of rest during the playoff run.
Lester would then pitch WS Game 6 (on 6 days rest) and 2; NLCS Game 5 (on 5 days rest) and 1 (on 7 days rest) and start Game 2 of the NLDS.

This is the chess game within the game for managers. How you set up your roster and rotation is a critical component on how well your team will perform in the post season. There is no easy answer. Some will say just start your "best" pitchers first because you have to win each round to advance. There is not enough time between series to "reset" the rotation back to Game 1.

People have emphasized the rotation as being the key of this Cub post season since the bullpen continues to be in flux. People are looking for starters to go 7 strong innings, but that has been a rarity all season long.

It will be interesting to see how Maddon and the front office creates its 25 man post season roster. One expects that there may be an additional relief pitcher in the mix (but no one believes Lackey will be that guy).

THE MATH

It is crunch time in the NL Central.

Today's standings:

Cubs 83-66
Brewers 80-70  3.5 GB
Cardinals 77-72 6 GB

The Cubs and Cards have 13 games to play; Brewers 12.

The Cubs have a 97.1 percent chance to make the playoffs. The Brewers have 14.8%. The Cardinals only 4.0%.

But what will it take to win the division?

The Brewers are currently on an 8-2 streak. At that pace to the end of the season, the Brewers would win 88 games. So really, the mark to take the crown is 88 wins.

The Cardinals are currently on a 5-5 streak. They would have to win 11 of their last 13 games to reach 88 wins. That is highly unlikely.

The Cubs would have to go 5-8 to reach 88 games.Considering the Cubs have been good in their last ten games (7-3), they should easily reach 88 wins. The Cubs current winning percentage projects 90 wins which means the Brewers would have to win every remaining game to tie the Cubs.

The Cubs appear to be on the cusp of repeating their NL Central championship. The only potential spoiler remains the pesky Brewers.

AT THE POST

There was a surprising number of big name starting pitchers moving prior to the trade deadline. Sonny Gray went to the Yankees and Yu Darvish went to the Dodgers after the Cubs acquired Jose Quintana. Even lefty starter Jamie Garcia got traded TWICE before the deadline.

It has been said that in spring training, you build a roster to win 162 games. But at the trade deadline, you build a roster to win a playoff series.

This year's trend seems to be a blend of the old way and the new way. The old way was to stock up on four power pitchers to hold down the opponent in a short series. In 2016, the Cubs starters cruised with quality start after quality start. But the Royal and Indians way is to stock up on a strong bullpen to close out games after the 5th inning.

The Cubs added a front line starter in Quintana, who has gone 2-1, 2.37 ERA for the Cubs. With his addition, the playoff rotation would be: Lester, Arrieta, Quintana, Hendricks.

By adding closer Justin Wilson, the Cubs have the option of using him like Cleveland did with Andrew Miller: as a "stopper" in any inning. Maddon had tried to use Mike Montgomery in that role, but Montgomery appears to be better suited for long relief.

But can the Cubs shut down an playoff opponent with just its bullpen? Rondon and Strop can be good but inconsistent. Montgomery has been consistent. Duensing appears more and more like a situational lefty specialist. Uehara and Edwards would be 7th inning hold guys. Wilson can be the set up man and spot closer while Davis continues to be the prime closer.

The Cubs have five pitchers with experience closing games - - - which should mean that they are familiar with high pressure situations and can get anyone out.

But in a pressure situation, a manager can forget how to manage his bullpen. Last year, Maddon rode Chapman too much in the playoffs because he did not trust his bullpen. Maybe this year, Maddon will not have to ride Davis.

The other major roster move was getting Alex Avila from Detroit to be the back up catcher. By all reports, Avila is a good clubhouse guy and leader. However, he is in a contract year - - - and wants to be paid next season as a starting catcher. He will get limited playing time behind Contreras which will hurt his off-season value. Whether that will be an issue for Avila is something that only time will tell. On the flip side, Avila is now on a team that can contend for a ring.

The Cubs have started to play better since the All-Star break. The roster tweaks show that the front office is committed to repeat this year.

RUN THE TABLE

At the beginning of the season, I thought the most important Cub player in 2016 was going to be Kyle Schwarber.

But when Schwarber got injured in the outfield early in the season, the Cubs continued to bulldoze opponents with long winning streaks. To replace Schwarber's bat, Maddon relied upon more young talent: Baez and Contreras, who now appears to be the starting catcher in 2017.

When the Cubs dropped two games to the Dodgers in the NLCS, it was the lack of offense.

It made many think of the missing Schwarber bat. He only hit .143 in the Mets series in 2015, but for the entire playoff run he hit .333 BA, 5 HR, 8 RBI. He was the spark in the line up because he had consistent hard contact.

Opponents, especially good ones, can dissect a line up card to pin point who can hurt them, who to pitch around, and who to attack. There are still many holes in the Cub line up: Zobrist, Heyward, Russell, Montero may have a singular moment, but have been consistently off.  With half a line up not a threat, that puts more pressure on the stars. Rizzo felt the pressure and tried to do too much. It was only after shattering his bat did he get back into the groove in the Game 4 10-2 blow-out.

But Game 4 spark was created by the defense. Contreras pick off and Heyward's throw to nip Gonzalez at home plate gave the Cubs the old, in season memories of being a great team. 

Now that hitting has come back, and the pitching staff has been consistent, now is the time to run the table and clinch the pennant on Saturday night.

TIED SERIES

Having predicted before the NLCS the Cubs in 6, I am not worried about the 1-0 Sunday night loss to the Dodgers.

More bothersome is the growing trend of the Tinkerer, Joe Maddon.

He is managing differently than he did in the regular season. A regular season with 103 wins. A regular season that had the Cubs winning the Dodger head to head series.

Playing Heyward in right against Kershaw was just another headscratcher to fans. Heyward had been terrible against Kershaw. The Cubs need offense. The move would have been to play Soler or Almora in right, the latter giving the Cubs a good defensive option.

Defense was not a premium last night because both Kershaw and Hendricks pitched gems. Hendricks gave up less than his league leading ERA, on a quality pitch away that Adrian Gonzalez hit to the opposite field for a homer.

You still need to score one run to win a ball game. The Cubs did not do so. The Cubs failed to even try to manufacture a run, or put pressure on the Dodgers defense. Willson Contreras' first at bat was baffling - - - he did not take the bat off his shoulder for the first two pitches, and weakly walked back to the bench after the K.

The Cubs are still the better team. Chicago has better depth in pitching, hitting and defense.

But the pressure is getting to some players. Rizzo inferred that he is trying to hit 5 run HRs during his slump. His long foul ball out of the park yielded one walk during the evening. Fowler has not been setting up the line up and Bryant is looking at too many close pitches. The 3-4-5 hitters are collectively batting .100.

The Cubs cannot play down to their weaknesses and expect to win games against the Dodgers.

HOW YOU SPELL RELIEF?

C-O-M-E-B-A-C-K.

The Cubs were down 3 runs in the 9th but came back in New Cub style by taking pitches, putting the ball in play and playing stellar defense.

This season the Cubs were best offensively when they keep the order moving in an inning by "earning" walks, clutch hitting and good base running. By adding to a starter's pitch count early, the Cubs would wait for their pitches to hit.

In the playoffs, the pressure and competition level increases. For the first three games of the Giants series, it was the #9 pitcher spot that was most productive with 6 RBI. But Rizzo broke an 0-13 slump to get on base 3 times last night as a redemptive spark to the heart of the order.

Chapman also redeemed himself by mowing down the Giants in order in the bottom of the 9th. He just threw 102 mph fastballs past them.

But the most remarkable thing about this series was that the young players, Contreras, Baez and Almora, seem to thrive on the big stage. Each contributed on both offense and defense. Baez made his own highlight reel during the series.

The Cubs showed that they can claw back from any deficit. That is the great thing about baseball. You have 27 outs. The game is never over until the last out is recorded. So there is always a sliver of hope.

In the post game celebration, Maddon admitted that he did not want to have to deal with a Game 5 situation. He managed to win it last night. He may not believe in the doom of the curse, but he tends to manage against it. His moves last night were better than Game 3.

The expectation and hope increases in the NLCS. The Cubs appear to be ready to meet that challenge.

THE FLAWS

MadBum had a bad arm last night. The Cubs radio team saw it immediately in the first inning when Bumgarner only threw two fastballs.  At that point the Cubs had an advantage; batters could work the soft counts and increase the Giant's ace pitch count. It worked. Bumgarner was out of the game in the 5th.

Jake Arrieta was better than lowered expectations, especially when he hit a 3 -run homer to give the Cubs a large, early lead.

In an elimination game, you should not change what was working in the past. But Joe Maddon wanted to juggle and tinker the entire game. It showed the flaws in the Cub team.

Mike Montgomery threw 4 good relief innings, because he had to. Maddon had used everyone in the pen except C.J. Edwards.

Maddon burned through Wood, Rondon, Chapman and Grimm in the 8th inning. 

The bullpen situation unraveled in the 8th when Maddon called upon Chapman to do something he told Joe in the regular season he was uncomfortable in doing: the multiple inning save. Chapman gave up the lead in the bottom of the 8th; the staff getting torched for 3 runs.

For some reason, Maddon panicked in the 8th, thinking that he had to win the series then and now. 

But Kris Bryant hit a homer to tie the game in the 9th. This lead to a long, extra inning game with the Cubs short on bullets.

Montgomery was the only long reliever left in the pen. Some may say that was a roster mistake knowing that the Giants-Cubs play tight games. Further complicating the matter was Kyle Hendricks short start because of the line drive off the forearm. The keeping of only 11 pitchers may not be the critical issue unless you believe Cahill was a better choice than Coghlan. But Cahill would have given Maddon more relief innings than Grimm.

Montgomery gets the loss in the scorecard, but the loss really falls on the manager and how he used his roster during the game.

Now, after a long night game, the Cubs have to come back and regroup after giving the Giants the momentum and confidence to come back. The pressure is really on the Cubs tonight. And the team acquired John Lackey for his big playoff game experience.

A GIANT PROBLEM?

I was sitting in a bar talking to friends. The Mets-Giants game was on in the background. A nervous Cub fan wanted the Mets to win the wild card so it would be easier for the Cubs in the NLDS.

The Mets have lost two starters to the DL.

The Giants have playoff demigod, Madison Bumgarner.

So when an ex-White Sox player hits a 3 run HR in the top of the 9th in a scoreless pitchers duel, the anxiety of a Cub fan begins to emerge.

However, being the voice of calming reason, I said "it does not matter who the Cubs play. The Cubs are going to steamroll to the championship."

Last year's playoff run was unexpected. I went along for the ride.

This year's playoff run was expected. The team did not have any significant pitching injuries. The team has balanced veteran presence and young players  maturing into All-Stars. This year I expect a championship. And so do the Cub players.

Jake Arrieta should have a massive mean chip on his shoulder when he squares off against Bumgarner in Game 2 in SF.

John Lackey will follow Arrieta with his own brand of teeth grinding contempt.

The Cubs won the season series 4-3.  The Giants have an uncanny ability to play better than their roster on paper.

There are few analysts who believe that due to the playoff format, the Cubs are at a disadvantage in the NLDS. They believe the long layoff of five days is a major rust factor for the Cubs, the #1 seed. Second, the wild card victor has momentum on their side. Third, the best of five series favors the visiting team if they can take one of the first two games on the road. The pressure is on the home team Cubs to sweep the first two games.

But the series will come down to starting pitching match-ups.

Cueto vs. Lester is probably a draw.
Moore vs. Hendricks is advantage Cubs.
Bumgarner vs. Arrieta would be a toss up if Jake shows up as the 2015 Arrieta.
Samardzija vs. Lackey is advantage Cubs if Lackey can throw strikes and not be squeezed by the home plate umpire.

The Cubs have a 75 percent chance to win the NLDS. One would expect a 3-1 series win.

100 + 6 TO GO

The Cubs won a milestone 100th game. They can now cruise into the playoffs with NL home field advantage.

It was reported that Joe Maddon is looking for an 11 man pitching staff (down from the normal 13) to increase the bench to 14 players.

It should be a fairly easy exercise to forecast the playoff roster for Round 1:


Starters: (8)

LF Bryant  CF Fowler  RF Heyward
3B Baez  SS Russell 2B Zobrist  1B Rizzo
C Contreras

Bench: (6)

OF Soler
C Ross
C Montero
OF Szczur
OF Coghlan
IN LaStella

Rotation: (4)

Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey

Bullpen: (7)

Montgomery, Cahill, Wood, Edwards,
Strop, Rondon, Chapman

OUT OF BULLETS

When you use your only two bullets, and miss, it is tough to win the gunfight.

The Cubs used their best two regular season pitchers, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, against the Mets in the NLCS and the team lost both games.

Now, the series returns to Wrigley with uncertain Cubs starting pitching coming to the forefront.

Neither Kyle Hendricks or Jason Hammel have pitched well enough to earn Joe Maddon's trust. In the post season, Hendricks has allowed three runs over 4 2/3 innings, and he was pulled early despite the fact the Cubs had scored six runs behind him. Hammel found himself in a similar situation, departing after allowing two runs over three innings in Game 4 of the NLDS. 

Maddon has been using "bullpen days" since the end of the season. But bullpen relievers are really failed starters (Wood, Cahill, Richard, etc.) Maddon has every starter except Lester and Arrieta on a short leash. Some say Maddon kept Lester and Arrieta in their NLCS games too long. 

Since Game 3 is really "do or die" for the series, Maddon has to risk burning his bullpen to the ground to get a win.  Part of the problem with the current roster is that for some dumb reason, Addison Russell was replaced with Quintin Berry, a pinch runner, when the team knew pitching was an issue. Dan Haren should have been added to the roster to either pitch Game 4 of the series, or be available to take long relief if Hendricks or Hammel stinks up early in their starts. This roster move could haunt the team history worst than any non-game fan curse.

Maddon is also really relying heavily on T. Wood and Cahill in middle relief. Their innings are higher than the rest of the bullpen combined. 

Things would be different if the young Cubs hitters would actually hit. But the Mets invested heavily on quality starting pitchers, and the old axiom is holding true that "great pitching takes care of great hitting" in the playoffs.

TWO WAYS TO BUILD A CORE

The NLCS comes down to two teams that built their core two different ways.

The Mets have drafted and developed pitchers as a priority.

The Cubs have drafted and developed hitters as a priority.

The Mets used free agency and trades to acquire bats to compliment their young pitching staff.

The Cubs used free agency and trades to acquire arms to compliment their young hitters.

It now seems that both philosophies have merit.

If one looks at the Mets young core of pitchers, we find:

DeGrom 4.7 WAR, 14-8, 2.59 ERA, 0.970 WHIP
Syndergaard 2.1 WAR, 9-7, 3.24 ERA, 1.047 WHIP
Matz (only 6 GP) 1.2 WAR, 4-0, 2.27 ERA, 1.234 WHIP
Harvey 5.2 WAR, 13-8, 2.71 ERA, 1.019 WHIP

These four young starters combined for a collective 13.2 WAR and 30 wins of the team's 90 (33.3%).

If one looks at the Cubs young core of hitters, we find:
Bryant 5.9 WAR, .275 BA, 26 HR, 99 RBI
Russell 3.3 WAR, .242 BA, 13 HR, 54 RBI
Schwarber 1.7 WAR, .246 BA, 16 HR, 43 RBI
Rizzo 6.2 WAR, .278 BA, 31 HR, 101 RBI

These four young hitters combined for a collective 17.1 WAR and 302 RBI of the team's 657 (49.6%).

As you can tell, these eight players are the keys to the NLCS. One team will (for at least this season) validate their rebuild plan with a trip to the World Series.

METS HERO

Daniel Murphy displayed rare high level baseball IQ in the deciding playoff game against the Dodgers.

With a huge infield shift on, Murphy was on first base with one out. The batter walked, and Murphy started to jog to second, then turned on the gas as he got to the bag since no one was covering third base!

He stole third base from first on an out!

It is such a mindboggling play that rarely happens.

Murphy recognized the situation, and knew the rule that the ball was still live to rush to third base. The Dodgers were caught flat footed on a defensive play. One would think either the shortstop or the pitcher should have moved toward third base to stop Murphy from advancing to third.

But the runner's heads' up play  put him on third base which was the deciding play of the game. The next batter hit a deep sacrifice fly to right field so Murphy scored to tie the game.

Later, Murphy hit the game winning home run.

There is more pressure on players in the post season because there is more at stake, more viewers, and bigger plays because of the stage. Murphy met all those pressures and performed well above average, which gave his team the victory.

BUZZING

The baseball world is still buzzing about last night's explosive action.

The Cubs set a major league record for hitting six home runs in a playoff game.

But more puzzling, confusing and odd was the Blue Jays using starter David Price in relief in last night's game in Texas. The Jays were down 2-1 in the series so it was a "must win."

The Jays rocketed in the first to a 3-0 lead over the Rangers. R.A. Dickey, the 2012 NL Cy Young winner when he won 20 games for the Mets, allowed only one run over 4 2/3 innings and was pulled with a 7-1 lead, with a runner on base. Shin Soo Choo, who already with two hits, was coming to the plate.

"It was hard for me to do, but I thought that was the best way to win the game, keep them from coming back," Jays manager Gibbons said. "Probably not a relationship-building move, but a team win, that's what I was looking for."

Price needed only one pitch to retire Choo to end the fifth, and went three innings to get the win after losing in the series opener.  However, Price gave up 3 earned runs over his three innings of work.

Everyone expected the 6'5" All Star pitcher Price to start Game 5 in Toronto. Instead, the Jays will got with their home grown 5'9" spark plug, Marcus Stroman. 

A few national media members think that using Price in Game 4 relief (he threw 50 pitches) eliminated the debate on who would start Game 5. It was a calculated move by the Blue Jays to NOT have Price available to start in Toronto. Even though Price has had less than stellar post season record, just like Dodgers Clayton Kershaw, on the surface starting Price gives the Jays the best chance to win the game, right?

Apparently management thinks otherwise. And that is probably a bitter pill for Price to swallow this off-season. It will not hurt his value as Price is the best AL pitcher in the regular season. It is just that owners pay $200 million for ace starters who can dominate in the postseason like Madison Bumgartner. 

But the Jays traded a lot of talent to get Price from Detroit prior to the trade deadline.

The Jays took the story line of redemption out of Price's hands and put the fate of the season on a young hurler. Stroman only started 4 games this year, going 4-0, 1.67 ERA in 27 IP with a 0.963 WHIP for a 1.2 WAR. 

It would seem that the Jays do not expect to sign Price in the off-season so it makes some sense to battle test the pitchers who will be around in the 2016 pennant run.