KEY PLAYOFF STARTER

 Most baseball writers believe there will be several major upsets in the first round of the playoffs.

The reason is simple: it is a short series, best of three.

Any professional baseball team can win a series. The whole season is based upon short series. 

Because of the shortened MLB season, each 2020 game had an equivalency of three regular games. If a 2020 team had a three game losing streak, it felt like it was a 9 game losing streak. Slow starts made teams bottom dwellers for a long time.

Most writers also felt that most clubs would be around .500. In the NL, it was a closer prediction. But as with last season, there has been a surge of pitching and a lack of hitting as the season winds down. The simple reason is that pitchers have again found that the high fastball is a good chase pitch. And umpires are calling it.

Pitching and defense wins championships. This season will bear that out.

But in the first round of the expanded playoffs, starting pitching will be the key. The first game of the series is worth about 3 regular playoff games (in a best of five match). It sets the tone. It gives the victor some breathing room.

But in reality, the starter in the second game is more important. Game 2 is either total victory or clawing back from the dead. Elimination games often put more pressure on the team that can close out their opponent. Some reverse psychology is at play. Good teams with good chemistry can change their fortune in an elimination game behind a quality starter.

The Game 2 starter can get the team a rare playoff off-day in a series sweep or keep his team alive to fight for another day.

If you are a manager, I would advise to set up your rotation with your BEST starter for Game 2. There is more at stake in Game 2 than Game 1. Game 3 is going to be a nervous wrecking ball for both clubs, so a veteran starter would be a preferred choice.

Because there will be no travel days because of the bubble playoff format, teams cannot just rely on three starters. Four man rotations will be a must. A too clever manager may throw a bullpen, all hands on deck fire drill.

You could probably slot your first series Game 2 starter as your second round No. 2 with the possibility of being a short rest Game 5 starter if necessary. If not, then he can move into the No. 1 role for the pennant series.

NEW PITCHING STAFFS

As baseballs are flying out of ball parks at record numbers, the whole concept of a pitching staff is slowly beginning to change.

Starters are no longer geared toward pitching to contact or going complete games. It is now a rarity that a starter goes past 7 innings.  The new normal is 5 innings. This puts a huge strain on the bullpen, which is now bloated to at least 9 relievers.

Some managers are using "bullpen" days to get through series. The relief corps pitch the entire game, usually 2 or 3 innings for long relievers and then the set up men and closer.  A few managers have decided to start a tough reliever to get through the top of the order, then bring in their normal starter in the second inning. This avoids seeing the opponent's top three hitters three times in a game (as stats show a dramatic fall off in pitching performance the third time through the line up card).

The need for bullpen arms absorbing more innings per season is not lost on GMs (or player agents). Middle relievers or swingmen have had steady salary increases in free agency because teams now find Andrew Miller type relievers golden (they can be middle inning "stoppers," long relievers or even closers).

There are still several stud "ace" starters in the major leagues. But there are turning into baseball's dinosaurs: high salaries and less performance.

The real push for change in starting pitching is going to be economic.

The Cubs example is telling: the team was squeezed by an business mandate not to go over the luxury cap of $206 million. The five starters are being paid $85.5 million for 2019. That is 41.5% of the lux cap space. The 9 relievers in the bullpen are being paid $55.6 million. That is 27.2 % of the lux cap space. In total, pitching at the start of the season took up $141.1 million (68.7%) of payroll budget. Or an average of $10.1 million/pitcher.

That only leaves $64.9 million to be distributed to 11 position players (for an average of $5.9 million per player.) This is why the Cubs could not make any major off-season moves for position bats because it is hard to find very good every day players for $6 million/year. Veteran bench players get that kind of money.

The budget dollars will be allocated away from pitching toward hitting if traditional starter roles are going to be decreased in the near future. (We have discussed the concept of pitching pods in the past; a system where 3 pitchers are grouped together to pitch a game; 4 pods equal 12 pitchers - - - with two additional relievers in reserve. It is a modified bullpen game but with designated pitching squads instead of a traditional rotation.)  A pitching staff of relievers may cost $6 million/arm or $84 million, which is still less than the Cubs opening rotation cost of $85.5 million. Then you almost have double the amount to spend on position players.

Will this work? We will not know until it is tried and tested in a real season(s).

OPENERS & CLOSERS

There is an earthquake type shift in front offices. The glory days of "ace" starting pitchers are going to start to fade . . .  fast. Just like the NFL has caused the running back position to become a generic commodity in its pass-happy offenses, baseball is soon going to put less emphasis on starting rotations to win games.

The trend has been accelerating this year. A report indicated that the amount of innings pitched by MLB starters is down 37 percent. It means that starters are pitching more than 2 innings less than they did a decade ago. It is apparent when you watch games. It is now a rarity for a starter to pitch into the 7th inning. A generation ago, starters all took the mound with the one goal of tossing a complete game. Today, starters are content with finishing just 5 innings.

Teams are constructing their bullpens not as emergency help for faltering starters but as a machine to win games. During Kansas City's World Series runs, it developed a killer bullpen of three dominant, "shut down" arms in the 7th, 8th and 9th innings. If the Royals were winning after 6, the game was over. The emphasis began to shift to the back three or four innings and not the front five.

Stats gurus have allegedly found that starting pitchers get hammered more when a batter sees them for the third time during a game. The logic is that the batter has now seen all the pitches of the starter so he can better anticipate what he will see. Also, the stat men found that the key innings in a game for a starter are the 2nd to 7th. Therefore, the Padres developed the concept of an "opener," a relief pitcher who would throw the first inning then give way to the starting pitcher. That means the starter will see the top of the opponent's order one less time during the game. This is how odd pitching metrics have gotten.

Closers used to be just mop up guys. Now, they are the highest paid bullpen pieces because for some mental reason, not every relief pitcher can get the last three outs in a game. Closers typically have one lights-out pitch; a 100 mph fastball, or a devastating fork ball. They are strike out pitchers. Teams now set up their bullpens just to get to the closer.

With starters only covering 5 innings, they are really no different than traditional "long" relievers who can spot start or throw 3 innings in a game. Long relievers are not paid as well as starters or closers. But in the new pitching playbook, they may become even more valuable.

Some teams without a decent fifth starter will result to having a "bullpen" day where long relievers will try to get 6 innings in the book before turning it over to the last three bullpen arms. In the near future, all teams may employ bullpen days for every game.

Teams are already carrying 12 or 13 pitchers on the 25 man roster. That is why so many teams, especially the Cubs, try to find bench players who can play multiple positions because they have very limited substitutes. The idea of expanding the roster to 26 players does not mean an extra bat will be added to help managers. Some teams are now employing the dual role of a pitcher/position player. The Reds have a relief pitcher who also can bat well and play the outfield. It is not usual for star pitchers to be the best player on their youth, high school or college teams. And it is not usual that they used to be the best hitter and fielder at multiple positions. But they lose part of the skill set when they just concentrate on pitching.

Even colleges are now concentrating on developing relief pitchers such as closers. In the past, Steve Stone remarked that all relief pitchers were "failed" starter. College World Series teams often have designated closers. Minor league systems now quickly separate prospects into starters and relievers as it is now just as important to find closers and long relievers.

Ownership has a vested stake in this new pitching philosophy. It should cost less payroll. the age of the $20-30 million starter will be over. Relief pitchers salaries have been going up recently, but closers usually top out around fifth starter money. If a team can save half of the starters annual salary, that is pure profit to the owners.

JAKE YU

It was reported that the Cubs made the same basic offer to both Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish.
Arrieta wanted more money so he left for a disappointing free agency. Darvish signed with the Cubs with disappointing results.

How different would it be if Arrieta stayed with the Cubs? No one knows for sure.

Since leaving the Cubs, Arrieta has started 48 games, thrown 276.1 IP, giving up 107 ER, 97 BB with a 1.335 WHIP. His record is 18-17.

Since joining the Cubs, Darvish has started 24 games, thrown 137 IP, giving up 76 ER, 70 BB with a 1.365 WHIP. His record is 3-7.

Since leaving the Cubs, Arrieta's WAR is 4.1.  Darvish's Cub WAR is 0.4.

You really cannot say that Arrieta is "ten times" better than Darvish, but he had been more durable. Durable until he left his last start with elbow issues. It appears he has bone spurs which will require surgery so he will be out for an extended time period.

The rehash of this debate continues because the Cub front office continues to frustrate fans by not signing and developing starting pitching prospects. Zero. Adbert Alzolay was sent back to the minors have a weak start.

At the start of the season, many sports reporters questioned whether the age of the starting rotation would bite the Cubs. With Cole Hamels on the DL and Kyle Hendricks coming off the DL, the lack of rotation depth is clear. Spot starts by Tyler Chatwood will not cut it in the second half. Montgomery is not the same pitcher he was two years ago.

During the cross town series, Cub fans complained about the Quintana trade as Eloy Jiminez rocked a homer and Dylan Cease made his first career MLB start. Again, the Cubs made that trade because they needed to win then with a veteran arm. As the White Sox rebuild progresses,  the eventual Cubs tear down comes closer on the horizon.

ANOTHER ARM

The Cubs first round draft choice was a college starting pitcher.

MLB.com stated:

27) Cubs: Ryan Jensen, RHP, Fresno State

This is the biggest surprise of the first round so far, as Jensen was ranked No. 99 on our ranking of the top 200 Draft prospects. There's a lack of college pitching in this Draft, however, and we may see more teams push some college arms up their Draft boards, as the Cubs appeared to here. Jensen has one of the best fastballs in the college class, usually working at 94-98 mph and maintaining his velocity into the late innings. The secondary stuff is inconsistent, as is his control, and he doesn't have a real big frame (6-foot, 180 pounds), so he could be a reliever.

It is surprising that the Cubs reached for a third round prospect in the first round. It is another small frame pitcher who projects to be a reliever.
First round arms are supposed to be starters (unless you are a dominant career closer like the White Sox Burdi) because all relievers are failed starters.

High velocity throwers are nice, but can they pitch to make outs?

The reason the Cubs picked a college pitcher: to try to fast track him to the majors. The minor league system is devoid of any immediate help for the pitching staff. Could Jensen's velocity be enough to be a late season call-up to bolster an overworked bullpen? It is doubtful. But the Cubs window for a second championship run is closing fast with the improvements in their own division rivals.

The Cubs in the Theo era have NEVER developed their own starting pitcher. The first round choice is already pegged for relief duty by scouts. 

It appears that the Cubs cannot solve their pitching problems by spending any money. Kimbrel and Keuchel are unrestricted free agents, but the Cubs are not thought to be interested in either. Ricketts has said he would not allow the Cubs to go over the luxury cap (where the Cubs payroll was on Game 1). The front office has been squeezing nickels out of dimes to supplement the roster. When the Indians gave up on Carlos Gonzalez (he was hitting .210), the Cubs picked him up for a prorated league minimum (from part of the payroll savings of not paying Zobrist who is on the restricted list). This is like trying to find lost change under the sofa cushions in order to buy a pizza.

Do not be surprised if the Cubs front load more pitchers in this year's draft because that seems to be the overriding need for the system.

TANDEM

Yu Darvish had another Yu is Darbage outing. Four innings pitched, 97 pitches, 6 walks, one run . . .  his control was awful enough to get seven strikeouts.

Montgomery came back from his injury rehab to throw five innings of winning relief.

Which leads to a problem and a solution.

Darvish cannot command his stuff. Montgomery wants to be a starter. Darvish has such a fragile mental state that Maddon has to take baby steps with him. Monty has been the good soldier since he became a Cub.

At some levels in minor league baseball, teams have a "tandem" system for starting pitchers. In a game, one starter is delegated to throw 3 or 4 innings and then another starter comes in to throw 3 or 4 innings. In theory, this is less strain on a young arm by limiting innings per start. But at the same time, it helps to build up arm strength.

There was always a question on why Montgomery's minor league rehab was to stretch him out like a starting pitcher. The Cubs have their long reliever with Chatwood. But perhaps the Cubs inability to get a real closer is making the front office think about moving Chatwood to a late inning role.

But in the Marlins game, it was shown that the combination of Darvish and Montgomery can work in a "tandem" situation. I would not be surprised that Montgomery will not be used until Darvish's next scheduled start.

QUALITY START

What is a real "quality start?"

MLB defines a quality start as:

A starting pitcher records a quality start when he pitches at least six innings and allows three earned runs or fewer. A starting pitcher has two jobs: to prevent runs and get outs. The quality start statistic helps to quantify which pitchers did a "quality" job in those two departments.

This definition of a "quality" yields an absurd result: a pitcher who allows three earned runs over six innings would have an ERA of 4.50 -- not good -- and yet he still receives a quality start. 

Bill James addressed this in his 1987 Baseball Abstract, saying the hypothetical example (a pitcher going exactly 6 innings and allowing exactly 3 runs) was extremely rare among starts recorded as quality starts, and that he doubted any pitchers had an ERA over 3.20 in their quality starts. This was later confirmed through computer analysis of all quality starts recorded from 1984 to 1991, which found that the average ERA in quality starts during that time period was 1.91.

Former pitcher Carl Erskine said "in my day, a quality start was a complete game ... you gave everybody a day's rest." This view was also echoed by Fergie Jenkins who often said that it was his job every time he took the job was to have a complete game win. If he was going against an opponent like Bob Gibson, he knew that he could only give up one or two runs tops in order to win the game.

Growing up, it was the consensus gold standard for a pitcher to have an ERA under 3.00.

To get to that level, a pitcher would have to have these types of starts in order to get the win:

5 IP 1 ER = 1.80 ERA
6 IP 2 ER = 3.00 ERA
9 IP 3 ER = 3.00 ERA

2.57 ERA for 7 IP with 2 ER, but 3.86 ERA with 3 ER.
2.25 ERA for 8 IP with 2 ER, but 3.36 ERA with 3 ER.

Therefore, a quality start should be a scaled event for starting pitchers at points of 1, 2 and 3 earned runs allowed to get under 3.00 ERA.

The oddity in this analysis plays into the rise in the bullpen managed game. A starter with 1 ER in 5 IP can be pulled for a shut down bullpen of under 2.00 ERA to get under a 3.00 ERA for the entire game. Stat men claim that starter's batting average against climbs dramatically when facing a hitter the third time in a game. Managers are not only managing the pitch count but also the number of times through the batting order.

Conclusion: a quality start should be any start that yields a 3.00 ERA or under.

MODIFIED ROTATION

The Cubs continue to dance around first place in the NL Central without having consistent starting pitching from the back of the rotation.

Yu Darvish's injury has created multiple issues. Darvish was supposed to be the 1A or 1B starter this season. However, he has gotten off to a rocky start. Some people believe he is trying too hard to justify his large free agent contract. Others believe that the fan culture of a big American city is so different than in Japan that it has affected Darvish in a negative way.

Jon Lester has been the best pitcher on the staff, and maybe in the NL. In 15 starts , he is 9-2, 2.10 ERA in 90 IP with a stellar 2.6 WAR. He is averaging 6 IP/ start.

Darvish is on the opposite end of the spectrum. He has 8 starts with a 1-3 record, 4.95 ERA in 40 IP with a negative 0.3 WAR. He is only averaging 5 IP/start.

Kyle Hendricks has not had a breakout season. In his 14 starts, he is 5-6, 3.55 ERA in 83.2 IP with a 0.9 WAR. He is averaging just under 6 IP/start.

Jose Quintana is hovering around his White Sox stats: in 14 starts, he is 6-5 with 4.06 ERA and 0.0 WAR in 75 IP. He is only averaging 5 1/3 IP/start.

Tyler Chatwood is an enigma. He was an early signing for a lot of money to be a 5th starter. In his 14 starts, he is 3-5, 3.95 ERA in 68.1 IP. He is averaging 4 2/3 IP/start. His WHIP is an outrageous 1.727. He leads the league in walks allowed with 63 (Lester led the team in 2017 with 60 for an entire season).

However, swingman Mike Montgomery has been great as a starter. In his 5 starts, he has gone 2-1, with 1.21 ERA in 29.2 IP. He is 6th in strikeout rate, and 1st in not allowing walks. In his 23 appearances as a starter and reliever, he is 2-2, 3.11 ERA in 55 IP with a 0.9 WAR. He is averaging 6 IP/start.

Montgomery has earned a starting rotation spot. The question is what happens when Darvish gets back from the DL. Does Monty move back into the bullpen or does he stay as a permanent 6th starter. The front office is against having a 6 man rotation. But Maddon does not have Morrow who has back issues. The bullpen is getting burned out because starters cannot go deep into games.

This is the disturbing rotational fact. The starters are not eating innings:

Lester 6 IP/start
Hendricks 6 IP/start
Montgomery 6 IP/start
Quintana 5.1 IP/start
Darvish 5 IP/start
Chatwood 4.2 IP/start

The latter three starters bring into play using 4 relief pitchers in back to back games.

The Cubs still have several make-up games in this summer. A 6th starter like Montgomery is needed, but he needs to remain sharp and stretched out.

Maddon could use his match-up style and put Montgomery into a hybrid 6-man rotation. Keep Lester and Hendricks on their normal 5 day routine, but alternate an extra day for Darvish and Chatwood to plug in Montgomery against a left hand hitting lineup.

THE REAL ROTATION

After two nail biting victories over the Brewers, the Cubs are crawling to the post season.

Talk has turned to the playoff starting rotation. There are questions for every current Cub starter including the swing man Montgomery.

Lester has not been the sharp playoff ace in his last 3 starts.
Arrieta is coming back from a hamstring injury.
Quintana has good outings and bad innings.
Lackey has been very consistent in his last 4 starts, but not overpowering.
Hendricks seems to be finding his last season groove but does he have the stamina to finish strong?

Montgomery pitched a quality start one-hitter in his last spot start. Maddon seems to be clear that he wants Monty in the bullpen in the playoffs.

Most assume that you want your "ace" to start Game 1 of the playoffs. But the post season games have tightened a bit with less travel days so if you are really projecting a World Series appearance, you have to manage the rotation prior to the end of the season.

Everyone projects the Cubs to use a four man rotation (with Lackey as being the odd man out).

The NL playoffs for the Cubs looks like this:

Game 1 NLDS Friday Oct 6
Game 2 NLDS Sat Oct 7
Game 3 NLDS Mon Oct 9 (home)
Game 4 NLDS Tue Oct 10 (home)
Game 5 NLDS Thur Oct 12  (6 days after Game 1)

When you look at this set up, the Cubs get two home games. Lester and Hendricks pitch better at home than on the road. So do you put Arrieta and Quintana 1-2?

The next round of the playoffs looks like this:

Game 1 NLCS  Sat Oct 14 (2 days after Game 5; 7 days after Game 2 NLDS)
Game 2 NLCS Sun Oct 15
Game 3 NLCS Tue Oct 17
Game 4 NLCS Wed Oct 18
Game 5 NLCS Thur Oct 19 (5 days after Game 1 NLCS)
Game 6 NLCS Sat Oct 20 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 NLCS Sun Oct 21 (5 days after Game 3)

The oddity is that the Game 6 pitcher will have more rest than the Game 5 or Game 7 starter.
Would it be prudent to make sure an older pitcher like Lester fit into Game 6?

The World Series looks like this:

Game 1 Tue Oct 24 (2 days after pennant series; 5 days since Game 5 start)
Game 2 Wed Oct 25
Game 3 Fri Oct 26
Game 4 Sat Oct 28
Game 5 Sun Oct 29 (5 days after Game 1)
Game 6 Tue Oct 31 (6 days after Game 2)
Game 7 Wed Nov 1 (5 days after Game 3)

It would appear your Game 5 NLCS starter would be the WS Game 1 starter on 5 days rest.
The Game 1 starter would also be the Game 5 starter on 5 days rest (and would be available in the bullpen for Game 7 like Maddon did with Lester last season).

If you think each round will be very close, then the pitching staff has to determine who should pitch the final game in each series.

You have to work backwards from WS Game 7 with your ace.
Your ace would pitch WS Game 7 and 3; Game 6 and  2 of the NLCS; Game 3 of the NLDS.
Game 3 of the NLDS is a key game coming off two road games in a short series against the Nationals. Perhaps Lester with his better home record and playoff experience in meaningful games would fit in as the #3 pitcher in the Cubs playoff rotation.

The other argument is to give him an extra day of rest during the playoff run.
Lester would then pitch WS Game 6 (on 6 days rest) and 2; NLCS Game 5 (on 5 days rest) and 1 (on 7 days rest) and start Game 2 of the NLDS.

This is the chess game within the game for managers. How you set up your roster and rotation is a critical component on how well your team will perform in the post season. There is no easy answer. Some will say just start your "best" pitchers first because you have to win each round to advance. There is not enough time between series to "reset" the rotation back to Game 1.

People have emphasized the rotation as being the key of this Cub post season since the bullpen continues to be in flux. People are looking for starters to go 7 strong innings, but that has been a rarity all season long.

It will be interesting to see how Maddon and the front office creates its 25 man post season roster. One expects that there may be an additional relief pitcher in the mix (but no one believes Lackey will be that guy).

NEW ARM OLD STORY

Steve Stone once said that all bullpen arms are failed starters.

The Cubs under Theo have failed to draft and develop one starter of their own.

The streak continues even though the team called up one fading prospect.

The Cubs have optioned infielder Jeimer Candelario to Triple-A Iowa and added Pierce Johnson to their bullpen.

Johnson — the first pitcher the Theo Epstein regime drafted for the Cubs — will be available to make his big-league debut against the Cincinnati Reds.

Johnson — the 43rd overall pick out of Missouri State University in 2012 and the compensation for losing free agent Aramis Ramirez — struggled with command issues and health problems as a starter and pivoted toward a bullpen role last summer.

Johnson went 2-0 with a 3.21 ERA in 12 appearances for Iowa this season, putting up 21 strikeouts against 11 walks and 15 hits through 14 innings.

But when Johnson was drafted, the front office painted the picture that he was the prototype pitcher the Cubs would stock pile in the minors. It never happened. Even though more than 50% of all Cub draft selections have been pitchers, none have made the majors as a starter. The inability to develop a home grown starter is the black hole in the Cubs organization. Every team is desperate for pitching, especially quality inning-eating starters. The premium spot is an ace starter. The inability to develop starters has led the Cubs to the market to overspend on free agents and pitchers on the decline in their careers.

But as we have seen this season, a starting rotation can crumble quickly. A five-man Opening Day rotation now looks for a 5th starter, and two replacements for Arrieta and Lackey when their deals expire at the end of the year. Some predict that Arrieta and Lackey may not last the entire season. It then gets to the proposition of Peter stealing to pay Paul; trading the depth of position prospects to either rent or take on a bad contract at the deadline for an experienced major league starter.

A TIME FOR CONCERN

The Cubs stand 18-17 record, 3.5 GB the Cardinals in the NL Central.

Some pundits believe that there is no reason to panic. Everything will be fine. The Cubs will come around. The team has too much talent to fail.

Except that is mere hope and expectation. An objective view of the 2017 season finds:

1. 22.8% of the season has been completed.
2. The Cubs record is upside down from last season.
3. The 2016 Cubs had two starters who hit over .290, hit 30 HRs and drove in 100 RBIs.
4. The 2017 club has only one player hitting over .290 or on pace to hit 30 HR (with 7, Bryant).
5. No current player is on pace to drive in 100 RBI.
6. No Cub starting pitcher is on pace to win 20 games, let alone 18 (accomplished by 2 last year).
7. The only starter on pace to exceed his win total from 2016 is Lackey (on +1 pace to win 12 games).
8. There is no current starter on the team who can replace Hammel's 15 win total from 2016.

The 2016 Cubs had a winning percentage of .640 (103 wins). If the Cubs "turn it around," as the bandwagon drivers claim, in the next 125 games, the Cubs would win 80 games for a season total of 98 (5 games worse than last year). However, that means that the Cubs have to win every series played for the rest of the season.

As the team has played, it is more realistic to divide the remaining 125 games by three. 42 games at 66 winning percent; 42 games split; 41 games at 33 percent equals 66 more wins (or a total of 84 wins). The Cubs have not had a long win streak this season. The starting pitching and lack of hitting is the reason. Even if you factor in a 9 game win streak, but a third (33%), third (50%) and third (55%), you project only to 63 more wins or a .500 season.

The major excuse is that Kyle Schwarber will eventually hit and drive base runners from the lead off position. Except, his post season legend is more than his current track record. In 106 major league games, 370 AB, he is only hitting .219 with 21 HR and 57 RBI. In a full 162 game season, that only projects to 32 HR, 87 RBI.  In 2017, he is only on pace for 20 HR, 56 RBI. 

He may not get more dramatic contact. In 2016, his strike out ratio was 33.2 %. In 2017, his strike out rate is 32.8%. In the next 500 AB, he has a projected chance to make bat-to-ball contact 20 more times, and at his current BA pace - - - 4.38 more hits. Can all four be game winners? Probably not.

Schwarber is not the only player to blame. It is systemic. And if fans do not want to accept that their team is not the same as last season, then you will have something in common with the Giants fans after their post-championship seasons of despair. 

Then, there is another view that the Cubs' front office will right the ship by acquiring new starting pitching with all the young talent in their organization. It is clear that the Cubs tried to show case 3B Candelario, but he went 1-7 but showed some above average defense. Happ was brought up and hit a home run in his first game, solidifying the minor league Baby Schwarber bat legend. But the problem with Theo and Jed is that they have fallen in love with their young players so much they won't trade them easily. Especially when they view them as insurance against veteran injury (such as the current MASH unit of Heyward (thumb), Russell (shoulder), Zobrist (back), Jay (back).

The last beef is the remark that the season is still early. People oddly place more significance in late season wins than early season wins. But in a 162 game schedule, wins in April count equally with wins in September. There is no "bonus" fraction for winning games at the end of the season. It is a clouded perception because most fan interest peaks after August when the pennant races come into view.

What were the preseason expectations?

100 win season: need to play .656 baseball (better than last year) to achieve goal
95 win season: need to play .616 baseball to achieve goal
90 win season: need to play .567 baseball to achieve goal

Those figures show how far behind the Cubs currently are in their goal to repeat in the NL Central and contend for a second championship.

If the front office, the fans and commentators are not concerned about the state of the Cubs, then they are a mild state of denial.

THE BUTLER DID IT!

One trope in mysteries is that a band of people are together in a mansion when during the course of the evening a person is murdered. Everyone immediately begins to suspect every guest, every motive, every nuance, until it is revealed at the end the butler did it.

The Cubs mysterious bad season has a Butler going to the mound to murder the Cardinals.
Or so we hope.

But Eddie Butler has a career 6-16 record in 36 games played (28 GS), with an ERA of 6.50, 1.770 WHIP and a negative 2.7 WAR. And he is touted as the fifth starter savior?

The hope lies in the small Iowa sample size: 5 starts, 1-0 record, 1.17 ERA, 1.109 WHIP in 30 IP with 17 Ks, 8 BB.

Can he hold back the staff's double digit 1st inning ERA disaster?

The Cardinals are in first place, 2.5 games ahead of the slumping Cubs. In St. Louis, the home town folk will want their team to stomp on the Cubs' collective neck to get some real separation in the NL Central.

Joe Maddon has run out of excuses ("fatigue," "championship hangover," "cold weather," "distractions") since the calendar has turned over to May.

Between #1 starter Lester and closer Davis, the pitching staff has been a mess. No one has been consistent. The Cubs had been carrying 9 pitchers in the bullpen just to try to survive long games which led to several starters pitch hitting in extra inning contests.

To compound the pitching woes, the Cubs defense has been below average. One person remarked when Rizzo had the day off, the Cubs fielded four second basemen to play the infield. Zobrist has not been good in any outfield spot. Baez is trying to make every play a Sportscenter highlight reel instead of getting sure outs.

It is clear that the Cubs lack focus. It may be hard to get yourself up to do a daily grind when you have already won a championship, but this team is young and should be hungry enough to continue history by winning multiple championships. That means laid back Joe needs to start sitting players when they screw up to send a message (remember all the tough love Starlin Castro received when he was a Cub?)

THE ROTATION

Pitching coaches will often say in spring training that you have to wait five regular season games to tell how well your starting pitchers are going to be for the season.

The Cubs have reached that point. It is not pretty.

The starting rotation after 16% of their season complete  is not on pace to be an average starter.

Lackey: 2-3, 5.10 ERA, 30 IP, 9 BB, 1.333 WHIP -0.3 WAR
Lester: 0-1, 3.68 ERA, 29.1 IP, 9 BB, 1.432 WHIP 0.3 WAR
Arrieta: 3-1, 4.66 ERA, 29 IP, 8 BB, 1.310 WHIP, -0.1 WAR
Hendricks: 2-1, 4.18 ERA, 28 IP, 12 BB, 1.214 WHIP, 0.2 WAR
Anderson: 2-1, 6.23 ERA, 21.2 IP, 12 BB, 1.846 ERA, -0.5 WAR

The starting rotation has accumulated a total negative 0.4 WAR.

It is the high ERA and high walk totals that is killing the rotation.

THE SIXTH MAN

The Cubs are planning to go with a partial six-man rotation in 2017.
In 2016, resting the veteran starters in the second half helped in the playoffs.
But the problem to be addressed in spring training is that lack of starter depth.

The current rotation of Lester, Arrieta, Hendricks, Lackey and Montgomery is solid, but many of these veterans logged personal maximum innings in 2016. How fresh or sharp will they be in 2017?

The problem continues to be that the Cubs have failed to develop their own starting pitching.

Rob Zastryzny is slated to start in AA Iowa as the emergency starter. He went 1-0, 1.13 ERA in 8 games with the Cubs in 2016 (1 start). He is a lefty who went 10-5 in the minors with a 4.31 ERA. He may project to be a Travis Wood long relief/spot starter candidate.

The Cubs are also counting on Jake Buchanan. He went 1-0, 1.50 ERA in 2 games for the Cubs in 2016 (1 start). In AAA, he went 12-8, 4.34 ERA in 22 starts.

Also in the mix is Aaron Brooks. The ex-Royal, 26, went 1-1 with a 7.71 ERA in limited AAA action. His career MLB record is 3-5, 8.38 ERA.

Montgomery's promotion to the rotation does cause a weakness in the bullpen. Monty was a long reliever who could be spotted for work in any inning. If the Indians use of Andrew Miller in the playoffs will be a blueprint copied by many other teams, Montgomery seems comfortable in that role. He has not gone a full season as a starter.

The other unknown is the durability of Lester, Arrieta and Lackey. Will Maddon ease up on them in spring training and in the early part of the season? Is that why the Cubs will break camp with an 8 man bullpen? Probably.

Zaztrynzy, Buchanan and Brooks do not instill confidence in case of a starting rotation fail.

There are two guys currently on the market that would fit the bill as stop-gap starters: Travis Wood and Jason Hammel. In a pitching market devoid of quality starters, both Wood and Hammel have not gotten much free agent love. The Cubs bought out Hammel's option so he is not really on the radar to return. Wood wants to return to being a full time starter, with a better command of his fastball. Remember, starters make more money than relievers.

The Cubs will still have to make at least one off-season move to add depth to the rotation. The Cubs continue to harp about acquiring young, controllable arms. A player with quality stats and 4 years of control is sitting on the White Sox fire sale inventory, Jose Quintana, but the price the Cubs would have to pay stops the discussion before it even begins. Quintana, 13-12, 3.20 ERA with a 5.2 WAR in 2016, is the type of player the Cubs would need if either Lester or Arrieta goes down with a serious injury.

The six-man rotation concept is good in theory. However, if you don't have the pieces to make it work, it messes up the entire pitching staff.

NL CENTRAL COMPARISON

Spring training begins for players to solidify their positions as major leaguers.

The NL Central's starters are pretty much locked in stone. It will be the bullpen and bench players that may have the most activity and evaluation to get to Opening Day rosters.

But fans will debate which team is best now.

One way is to compare each player position by position to rank which of the three is better. Trying to be as objective as possible, here is the breakdown:

Using the team's own current depth charts, which NL Central team is the best
by player to player position comparison? 3= best, 1 = worst

                    CUBS                        CARDINALS                     PIRATES
LF  Schwarber    1                          Holliday    2                        Marte  3
CF Heyward       2                         Grichuk       1                     McCutheon 3
RF  Soler             1                        Piscotty     2                        Polanco 3
3B  Bryant         3                          Carpenter     2                    Kang   1
SS Russell        1                           Peralta      3                        Mercer 2
2B  Zobrist         2                          Wong         1                      Harrison 3
1B  Rizzo           3                           Moss         2                       Jaso  1
C    Montero      1                            Molina        2                     Cervilli  3
SP Lester         1                            Wainwright    2                    Cole  3
SP Arrieta         3                           Garcia         1                      Liriano 2
SP Lackey        1                             Wacha      2                        Locke 3
SP Hendricks   2                           Leake      3                           Niese 1
SP Hammel       2                           Martinez      3                     Vogelsong 1
CL Rondon        1                           Rosenthal    2                    Melacom 3

                        24                                           28                                     32

Starting Rotation: Cubs 9, Cardinals 11, Pirates 10. Very close.
The Cubs infield is tops while the Pirates is the worst.

Columnists have speculated that the Cubs could win from 101 to 92 games this year. Most believe the Cardinals will not repeat their victory total from 2015 because of the loss of Heyward and Lackey.

WEALTH OF PITCHING

As this off-season has shown, starting pitching is a scare commodity. Even more valuable is "controllable" young starters. The Mets have amassed an envious young starting rotation.

But the White Sox also have a wealth of pitching arms. Currently starters are pretty good: Sale, Quintana, Rodon, and Danks. And they are left handed.

This is why the White Sox are never in a "rebuild" mode when the pitching staff is so good.

And it seems it will get better.

Of the Top 12 prospects, 6 are pitchers.

Carson Fulmer is #2 and he will get a chance to take Samardzija's spot in the rotation. Scouts project him to be a solid #2 starter.

Francelis Montas is another flamethrower. He is the team's #3 prospect. He finished well in AA and is expected to start in AAA Charlotte this year. Scouts project his stuff at a #2 starter level. He was just traded to the Dodgers in a three team deal to land 3B Todd Frazier from the Reds.

At #4 is pitcher Spencer Adams. He went 12-5 with 2.99 ERA in low minors last year. He has an effortless delivery of his four pitches with great command. Scouts think he may be better than Rodon, who has ace potential.

At #7 is another highly touted arm in Tyler Danish. Some scouts compare his size and make-up to that of Jake Peavy, who has had a long starting career in the majors. He will probably start in AAA this year.

At #11 is left hander Jordan Guerrero. He went 13-4 with 3.04 ERA in the low minors. His stuff ranges from 90-93, with a cutter and a curve ball. He may have the makings of a crafty lefty starter who would fit into the back of the rotation.

At #12 is hard throwing Chris Beck, who may get a chance to be the long reliever/spot starter in 2016. He is working on four pitch command. Scouts figure he may be a future #3 starter.

Look at the projections for these pitching prospects: two #2 starters, a potential ace, one #3, and two back of the rotation starters.

The White Sox have two prospects who are major league ready with good potential (Fulmer and Beck). Adams and Danish may be just two years away.

For whatever reason, the White Sox seem to draft and develop starting pitchers.

And the White Sox do not have to deal any of their current starters, which puts the team in the position to concentrate of field position needs.

HAMMEL

Jason Hammel had a bad second half. Joe Maddon lost confidence in him.
He has one year to go on his current deal for $9 million. Hammel did post a 1.7 WAR last season, which is worth about $9.52 million, so he actually performed above his WAR value (like himself plus a minimum 25 man roster player).

Because of the flux in the free agent pitching market, and some teams not willing to overpay for second tier pitching, Hammel can be an affordable option. The Cubs are in the same position trying to find affordable pitching on a tight budget.  But in order to fill an urgent need in CF, the Cubs have to trade salary in order to make acquisitions.

Hammel seems to be a trade candidate for a center fielder.

If you look at the value spectrum for starting rotations, it looks like this:

Fifth starter: $4.5 million
Fourth starter: $ 9 million
Third starter: $13.5 million
Second starter: $18 million
Ace: $22.5 million

Hammel fits into the 4th starter realm.

But to get a center fielder making $9 million in value puts end of the road veterans or journeymen like Matt Kemp, Coco Crisp or even Austin Jackson in the mix. To trade Hammel, the Cubs would need to get a center fielder who platooned last year on a club but who could play full time, or an excess outfielder with potential (like the Red Sox now have an outfield surplus with the signing of Chris Young.)

If Hammel cannot be used as trade chip, he may be moved just to add $9 million in unused payroll to help sign a free agent.

TENDERS AND WOOD

As expected, the Cubs tendered offers to Jake Arrieta, Travis Wood, Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon, Justin Grimm, and Chris Coghlan on Wednesday, and also agreed to terms with left-handed relievers Rex Brothers ($1.42 million) and Clayton Richard ($2.1 million) on 2016 contracts.


The Cubs did not tender contracts to right-hander Ryan Cook and lefty Jack Leathersich (who was injured and on rehab). All but Leathersich were arbitration-eligible.


Cook and Leathersich never suited up for the Cubs. 


The front office continues to cull through waiver wire claims and now, non-tender lists, in order to add more bodies to the 40 man roster (which sits at 36 players) or to the AAA club.


The focus has been adding AAA replacement level pitchers for bullpen depth. Richard gives the Cubs the long reliever-spot starter that it needs to stabilize the rotation. This could also mean that the Cubs may actually give Wood the opportunity to try to regain his starter status. Wood was much more effective in relief because Bosio made him throw more fastballs instead of trying to paint the corners with off-speed pitches.  Wood seems the only in-house option to be the Cubs #5 starter.

TOP PITCHERS FOR CUBS

In the realistic post-season crystal ball of the Cubs off-season, there are several hard truths:

One, the Cubs baseball front office has less to spend than most people realize. I estimate that from press reports and current contract obligations, the Cubs can only spend around $25 million on new players. The acquisition of three AAA relievers prior to the 40 man deadline does not mean that the Cubs bullpen and pitching issues have been resolved for 2016.

Two, with a tight payroll cap, the Cubs are extremely unlikely to find a good CF/lead off hitter on the open market. The internal solution of either Albert Almora or Billy McKinney are years off in the future. The most likely scenario now is that the Cubs will have to move veteran salary off the books in order to free up cash to sign free agents to fill more urgent needs.

Three, as the post-season clearly showed, pitching is a priority for the Cubs to compete in 2016. The Cubs need to find two good starting pitchers to compliment Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta.

On the free agent pitching front, the Cubs cannot and will not throw hundreds of millions of dollars on Price, Zimmerman, Greinke or Cueto. In fact, more teams are going to stray away from the top tier guys to bid up second tier veteran arms. The Cubs really cannot afford a bidding war in this market.

The Cubs offer a young club with upswing potential and playoff experience is a benefit to some free agents looking for a good landing spot.

In culling the lists, I believe the two best fits of free agent pitchers for the Cubs this off-season are J.A. Happ and Mike Leake. Their acquisition basically eats up the payroll budget as it current stands without other roster moves.

Happ, 33, was traded at the deadline to the Pirates. He helped stabilize their rotation. He went 11-8 in 32 starts with a 3.41 ERA and 3.0 WAR. He made $6.7 million last season. He is projected to sign for either 2 years/$20 million or 3 years/$30 million.

Leake, 28, was traded by the Reds to the Giants at the deadline. He struggled a little in San Francisco. In 30 starts, he compiled a 11-10 record, 3.70 ERA and 2.9 WAR. He made $9.775 million last season. He is projected to sign for 5 years/$80 million.

Happ and Leake would offer a consistent #3 and #4 starters for a rotation that would consist of LHP Lester, RHP Arrieta, LHP Happ, RHP Leake and RHP Hendricks.

UPDATE: Happ signed a three-year deal valued at $36 million to return to Toronto, where he pitched for two-plus seasons from 2012-14. While far from a model of consistency throughout his nine-year Major League career, Happ boosted his stock with a strong finish to his 2015 campaign. After being traded from Seattle to Pittsburgh in July, Happ went 7-2 with a 1.85 ERA over his final 11 starts. He signed for about $2 million/ per season more than projected but he appears to take the place of Price in the rotation.

OUT OF BULLETS

When you use your only two bullets, and miss, it is tough to win the gunfight.

The Cubs used their best two regular season pitchers, Jon Lester and Jake Arrieta, against the Mets in the NLCS and the team lost both games.

Now, the series returns to Wrigley with uncertain Cubs starting pitching coming to the forefront.

Neither Kyle Hendricks or Jason Hammel have pitched well enough to earn Joe Maddon's trust. In the post season, Hendricks has allowed three runs over 4 2/3 innings, and he was pulled early despite the fact the Cubs had scored six runs behind him. Hammel found himself in a similar situation, departing after allowing two runs over three innings in Game 4 of the NLDS. 

Maddon has been using "bullpen days" since the end of the season. But bullpen relievers are really failed starters (Wood, Cahill, Richard, etc.) Maddon has every starter except Lester and Arrieta on a short leash. Some say Maddon kept Lester and Arrieta in their NLCS games too long. 

Since Game 3 is really "do or die" for the series, Maddon has to risk burning his bullpen to the ground to get a win.  Part of the problem with the current roster is that for some dumb reason, Addison Russell was replaced with Quintin Berry, a pinch runner, when the team knew pitching was an issue. Dan Haren should have been added to the roster to either pitch Game 4 of the series, or be available to take long relief if Hendricks or Hammel stinks up early in their starts. This roster move could haunt the team history worst than any non-game fan curse.

Maddon is also really relying heavily on T. Wood and Cahill in middle relief. Their innings are higher than the rest of the bullpen combined. 

Things would be different if the young Cubs hitters would actually hit. But the Mets invested heavily on quality starting pitchers, and the old axiom is holding true that "great pitching takes care of great hitting" in the playoffs.