FREE AGENT CANDIDATE

In the framework of the Cubs picking up second tier free agent pitchers then flipping them for prospects at the trade deadline like with Paul Maholm, the name that pops to the top of the list is John Lannan of the Nationals.

Lannan will be non-tendered this offseason, because he spent most of his time in AAA.  Lannan earned $5MM in 2012. 

Lannan, 28, has 6 major league seasons under his belt. His career record is 42-52, 4.01 ERA, 783.2 IP, 1.424 WHIP, 1.39 K/BB ratio. Last season, he made six starts with a record of 4-1, 4.13 ERA, 32.2 IP, 1.439 WHIP, 1.21 K/BB ratio.  When you sign him, you know what you are getting - - - a #4/5 starter with experience.

The only downside to this plan is that the Nationals prize starting pitching; a left handed experienced starter is a hard asset to find in the open market. Plus, if the Nationals do not re-sign Edwin Jackson, Lannan could be the top candidate to replace him in the 2013 rotation.  One would expect Lannan to re-sign with the Nationals, a contender, then sign with the Cubs, a pretender.

NO DEAL

The Nationals have no interest in trading demoted SP John Lannan to the Cubs for OF Marlon Byrd. Byrd, who used to be a reserve outfield for the Nationals, would only be used as a stop gap measure to cover for some injuries. The Nationals are willing to wait for former first round pick, Bryce Harper, to be called up to solve any outfield issues.

Lannan is unhappy by being demoted to AAA. He is the Nats Randy Wells. It was a numbers game, and Lannan wound up the 6th starter. With an option left, he was sent to AAA to be held in case one of the five regulars gets hurt or shut down. Which is a possibility since Strasburg is coming back from an injury and his innings may be throttled back.

Why the Cubs would want to pick up another $5.5 million starter in Lannan when the real immediate problem is with the bullpen is fairly simple: depth. Adding Lannan to the mix allows the Cubs to massage a deal down the road to trade Dempster ($14 million) or Garza ($9 million) or package them to move Soriano and some of his $19 million salary.

It is going to be a long, tough season on the North Side, especially at the turnstiles. Ticket demand is waning, so the best business plan is to continue to pare back on salaries, even with a spendthrift owner buying and building real estate projects. Byrd's $6.5 million contract appeared to be the most movable piece on the roster, but that is an expensive 4th outfielder for most teams. Most of the Cubs moves this season will be Seller salary dumps.

SURPLUS PITCHING

It is rare to find a major league club with excess starting pitching. The Nationals have found themselves in the midst of such a pleasant predicament.  Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman are the young starters on the staff. The Nats aggressively went out and traded for Gio Gonzalez and signed free agents Edwin Jackson and Chien-Ming Wang.


The Nats also have John Lannan, Yukieski Maya and Ross Detwiler in the mix for the 5th starter if one of the recent acquisitions falters.


So it would appear that the Nats have a surplus starter open for trade.

Lannan, a 27-year-old southpaw, posted a 10-13 record, with  3.70 ERA, 1.462 WHIP, a K/BB ratio of 1.39.  He had 54.1% groundball rate in 184 2/3 innings last year.  His career ERA is 4.00. He is comparable to Floyd Bannister in his career numbers.

Lannan will make $5 million this season. He's technically under team control through 2013, but if another typical season pushes him to the $7.5MM salary range for 2013. So if the Nats are going to deal him, now would be the time.

As the Cubs are found of saying, they look to obtain "assets." A left handed starting pitcher with an ERA of less than 4.00 that is under control for 2 seasons is a quality asset, especially for a contender.

The Cubs are in a payroll constraint because they are "rebuilding" (no matter what the owner says to the contrary). However, there is a way to make the deal: trade Byrd's $6.5 million salary for Lannan's $5 million. Washington is looking for a right handed hitting center fielder. By trading Byrd, it opens up CF for Brett Jackson, who would immediately fit either the #1 or #3 hole in the weak Cub batting order.

And you have to view such a deal from the question of whether Lannan would be an "upgrade" over the current 4th or 5th starter. The Cubs rotation of Garza, Maholm, Dempster, and T. Wood is pretty set. Lannan would be an upgrade from Volstad, Lopez, Samardzija, Coleman, or another walk on battling for the 5th starting spot.

It is a deal that makes sense which means it won't get done.