The trend is pitching. Pitching defeats hitting. So we are told this season.
As of Tuesday, runs scored has a wide berth among MLB teams.
Blue Jays are first in runs with 462 in 85 GP (5.44/Runs per game). The Astros are second with 388 runs scored.
At the bottom the White Sox at 275 runs in 80 GP (3.44 R/GP). The Mariners are at No. 29 with 283 runs. The White Sox are a full 2 runs behind the Blue Jays in run production.
The mean team, No. 15, is the Brewers at 339 runs.
The high flying, best record Cardinals are 22nd with 326 runs. The Cubs are 24th with 314 runs.
The differential between No. 1 and No. 30 is 368.5 runs scored. Only seven teams surpass that differential: Blue Jays, Astros, Yankees (379), D'backs (374), Orioles (327), A's (372) and Tigers (371).
There is some correlation between runs scored and position in standings is not clear.
Blue Jays (4th in AL East)
Astros (1st AL West)
Yankees (1st AL East)
D'backs (3rd NL West)
Orioles (2nd AL East)
A's (5th AL West)
Tigers (3rd AL Central)
Only one National League team is in top run scorers, which means that the DH does have some impact on AL scoring. But only 2 of the 7 teams (28.5%) are in first place in their division.
Does team ERA leaders shed any light on the runs scored to standings?
The Cardinals led the majors in team ERA at 2.56. The Rockies are in last with 4.88 ERA.
How the run leaders stack up in team ERA:
Blue Jays (23rd)
Astros (10th)
Yankees (20th)
D'backs (26th)
Orioles (12th)
A's (7th)
Tigers (25th)
Four of the seven run leaders (57.1%) are below the 15th club in team ERA. However, the two first place clubs are on either side of the 15th club (10th and 20th) while the best team ERA of top run scorers, the A's, are 7th in team ERA. One would expect the A's to be a lot better than last place in the AL West.
In this analysis, it seems that pitching does seem to tip the balance in favor of clubs who do not score as much as the average team as the No. 1 pitching club, the Cardinals, rank 22nd in run production.
Showing posts with label scoring. Show all posts
Showing posts with label scoring. Show all posts
July 8, 2015
April 17, 2013
A REAL PROBLEM
The Cubs futility in driving runners in scoring position continues this season. Last night, Barney lines out to centerfield with the bases loaded to end the game.
After 13 games (8 percent of the season), the Cubs clean-up hitter, Soriano has 0 HR and 0 RBI.
And many other team broadcasters have remarked that the Cubs line-up from the 5th hitter on is "not intimidating" or "weak."
The team only has three hitters batting over .300: W. Castillo, Castro and Schierholtz. That's two starters and a platoon outfielder.
The only hope at Triple AAA would be Ryan Sweeney, the ex-Red Sox player. He is batting .382 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. Brett Jackson continues to struggle with strike outs. He is batting .244 with 15 strikeouts in 41 AB. Ian Stewart has played in two games is 0-for-7 at the plate. Josh Vitters has played one game, one AB, no hit.
After 13 games (8 percent of the season), the Cubs clean-up hitter, Soriano has 0 HR and 0 RBI.
And many other team broadcasters have remarked that the Cubs line-up from the 5th hitter on is "not intimidating" or "weak."
The team only has three hitters batting over .300: W. Castillo, Castro and Schierholtz. That's two starters and a platoon outfielder.
The only hope at Triple AAA would be Ryan Sweeney, the ex-Red Sox player. He is batting .382 with 3 HR and 8 RBI. Brett Jackson continues to struggle with strike outs. He is batting .244 with 15 strikeouts in 41 AB. Ian Stewart has played in two games is 0-for-7 at the plate. Josh Vitters has played one game, one AB, no hit.
April 12, 2012
RELATIVE ERA
The Cubs slow start at home this season has resulted in 1-5 record; a winning percentage of .167; and a pace to lose 135 games this season.
Dempster has thrown two quality starts and has an 0-1 record and 1.88 ERA.
Quality pitching will keep a team in the game. But in order to win, the Cubs need to score.
And that is where our concept of "relative ERA" comes into play.
Normal ERA is taking the number of earned runs allowed divided by innings pitched and compared to a 9 inning game. For a starting pitcher, a generous "quality start" is loosely defined as 1 ER in 5 IP, 2 ER in 6 IP or 3 ER in 7 IP (range 1.80 to 3.86 ERAs) The average is 2.89.
But one must factor in whether the bullpen can hold a quality start to victory. The Cubs bullpen has been woeful so far. In six games this season, the pitching staff has given up 28 runs for a staff ERA of 4.67.
The Cubs offense has only mustered 19 runs in 6 games or 3.17 runs per game.
The difference between runs allowed and runs scored is 1.5 per game.
The run differential means that the pitching needs to be significant better in order to coax out a victory.
The relative staff ERA needs to come down below the Cubs run production of 3.17 runs per game.
And a "quality start" relative to the Cubs current offensive production needs to average a 1.39 ERA. So Dempster's stellar 1.88 ERA is not enough to generate one win. It is just not enough.
The starting pitchers have started to shoulder the "blame" for not completing what they started (the game) in these close losses, where either the offense failed to rally or the bullpen imploded. That puts more pressure on the starters to go beyond the norm in order to find success.
So relatively speaking, the Cub starters are under pressure to give up only 1 run per game. Then the bullpen is under pressure to give up only 1 run per game to total 2, since the Cubs offense is mired in only scoring 3 runs per contest.
Dempster has thrown two quality starts and has an 0-1 record and 1.88 ERA.
Quality pitching will keep a team in the game. But in order to win, the Cubs need to score.
And that is where our concept of "relative ERA" comes into play.
Normal ERA is taking the number of earned runs allowed divided by innings pitched and compared to a 9 inning game. For a starting pitcher, a generous "quality start" is loosely defined as 1 ER in 5 IP, 2 ER in 6 IP or 3 ER in 7 IP (range 1.80 to 3.86 ERAs) The average is 2.89.
But one must factor in whether the bullpen can hold a quality start to victory. The Cubs bullpen has been woeful so far. In six games this season, the pitching staff has given up 28 runs for a staff ERA of 4.67.
The Cubs offense has only mustered 19 runs in 6 games or 3.17 runs per game.
The difference between runs allowed and runs scored is 1.5 per game.
The run differential means that the pitching needs to be significant better in order to coax out a victory.
The relative staff ERA needs to come down below the Cubs run production of 3.17 runs per game.
And a "quality start" relative to the Cubs current offensive production needs to average a 1.39 ERA. So Dempster's stellar 1.88 ERA is not enough to generate one win. It is just not enough.
The starting pitchers have started to shoulder the "blame" for not completing what they started (the game) in these close losses, where either the offense failed to rally or the bullpen imploded. That puts more pressure on the starters to go beyond the norm in order to find success.
So relatively speaking, the Cub starters are under pressure to give up only 1 run per game. Then the bullpen is under pressure to give up only 1 run per game to total 2, since the Cubs offense is mired in only scoring 3 runs per contest.
January 20, 2012
QUALITY AT-BATS
There has been some off-season discussion about teams looking to upgrade with patient batters who can work a count, and get on base. The "quality at-bat" may be a misnomer unless the at-bats leads to runs scored.
In 2011, the NL Central teams had the following statistics:
Team Runs Scored Plate Appearances
Reds 735 6328
Brewers 721 6113
Cards 762 6242
Pirates 610 6063
Astros 615 6148
Cubs 654 6128
How many plate appearances generated a run scored?
Team RS/ PA PA/RS
Reds 735/6328 8.61
Brewers 721/6113 8.48
Cards 762/6242 8.19
Pirates 610/6063 9.94
Astros 615/6148 9.99
Cubs 654/ 6128 9.37
But how "efficient" were teams in producing runs per plate appearance?
Which teams scored more runs per plate appearance?
Team RS/ PA RS/PA
Reds 735/6328 0.116
Brewers 721/6113 0.118
Cards 762/6242 0.122
Pirates 610/6063 0.100
Astros 615/6148 0.100
Cubs 654/ 6128 0.107
The Cardinals, who finished second with 90 wins, scored almost 20% more runs than the Pirates (72 wins) and the Astros (56 wins). The Cards were 3.4% more efficient in their team at-bats than the first place Brewers (96 wins) who were close to efficiency of the Reds (79 wins). To look at it another way, it took the Astros almost 2 more at-bats than the Cardinals to score a run. It took the Cubs almost 1.33 more at-bats than the Cardinals to score a run.
In 2011, the NL Central teams had the following statistics:
Team Runs Scored Plate Appearances
Reds 735 6328
Brewers 721 6113
Cards 762 6242
Pirates 610 6063
Astros 615 6148
Cubs 654 6128
How many plate appearances generated a run scored?
Team RS/ PA PA/RS
Reds 735/6328 8.61
Brewers 721/6113 8.48
Cards 762/6242 8.19
Pirates 610/6063 9.94
Astros 615/6148 9.99
Cubs 654/ 6128 9.37
But how "efficient" were teams in producing runs per plate appearance?
Which teams scored more runs per plate appearance?
Team RS/ PA RS/PA
Reds 735/6328 0.116
Brewers 721/6113 0.118
Cards 762/6242 0.122
Pirates 610/6063 0.100
Astros 615/6148 0.100
Cubs 654/ 6128 0.107
The Cardinals, who finished second with 90 wins, scored almost 20% more runs than the Pirates (72 wins) and the Astros (56 wins). The Cards were 3.4% more efficient in their team at-bats than the first place Brewers (96 wins) who were close to efficiency of the Reds (79 wins). To look at it another way, it took the Astros almost 2 more at-bats than the Cardinals to score a run. It took the Cubs almost 1.33 more at-bats than the Cardinals to score a run.
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