June 30, 2014

DEPRESSING

It was the first time since 1932 that the Cubs did not play on a Sunday.

It was more important that the Lakeview Pride Parade take center stage on Sunday than a Cubs-Nationals game.

The Cubs played a day-night doubleheader, meaning the park was cleared for a separate gate for the nigh contest. The Cubs were rewarded for their day off by first losing both games on Saturday.

It was said that there really was no good reason why the Cubs could not play on Sunday. The Cubs gate would be under 30,000. The parade was going to start more than an hour before typical game time. The Cubs could have moved the start time back to 2:20 p.m. if there truly was a traffic concern.

But the decision was made not to play ball.

Then an interesting thing happened: no one noticed that the Cubs did not play yesterday.

The Cubs totally fell off the radar.

The Sunday Cubs used to be a staple program on WGN America, but now that channel has dropped the Cubs from any future national exposure. So the Cubs will further fall off the radar of many non-local Cubs fans.

One could imagine that in the middle of the depression, people could not afford to go to a Cub game. But this is 2014. We are in the final golden years of the Bud Selig leadership era. Baseball has never been better (except on the North Side.)

It is depressing that the Cubs are getting more and more irrelevant.

June 28, 2014

WEST COAST SILENCE

Robinson Cano was last year's best free agent. In 2013, he hit .314, 27 HR, 107 RBI, .383 OBP, and massive 7.6 WAR for the Yankees.

Cano took the biggest money deal and wound up in Seattle.

Never to heard from again.

In most sports, there is an East Coast bias based upon a) New York and b) the early time zone. People can't stay up long enough to catch West Coast night games. Even in the Midwest, the 2 hour difference is enough not to watch the left coast contests.

So how is last year's great free agent doing?

Well, Seattle as a team is 42-37, in third place in the AL West, a very competitive division. So, that is good, right?

Cano himself has played in 75 games (about half the season). He is hitting .324, .384 OBP and 2.3 WAR, but his power numbers are way down: 4 HR, 43 RBI.

It may be a combination of not having the Yankee power line up ahead of him in the order to drive in runs, or solid bats behind him to protect him in the order, and the fact that Seattle plays in one of the biggest, pitcher friendly ball parks in the majors.

It appears that Cano is still driving the ball the same as last year with average and on-base percentage.
It is just the new team just does not fit into his power stroke.

And that is what many free agents do not take into consideration --- how a new team could affect their legacy and future statistics. But for most athletes, respect is spelled R-E-$-P-E-C-T.

Many players will take in account a better franchise over a losing one if the offers are similar. That was the alleged excuse for the Cubs missing out on high tender guys like Tanaka, who wanted to pitch for a consistent winning organization and not be part of a rebuild.

June 27, 2014

QUICK START

CSNChicago reports that White Sox GM Rick Hahn says that recent draftee Carlos Rodon (who went third overall) could be in the club’s rotation as early as next year,  “Based on our scouting evaluation that’s certainly a possibility,” said Hahn. “But until you get a guy in and get to know him and spend day in and day out with him, I think it’s a little risky to put time frames on guys.” Of course, the first step will be to complete a deal with Rodon, who must sign by July 18.

Perhaps this is a carrot to the prospect to have him sign this year, to get a half season in the minors to prep of a spring training audition. I have nothing against it. In fact, a polished college starting pitcher should be able to make it to the majors in the express lane.

The White Sox tend to cultivate left handed starters like a vacant field grows weeds. The White Sox are in need of a consistent fifth starter. Rodon fits that profile.

Other teams, notably the Cardinals, have called up pitchers from their recent draft classes within a year or two of minor league service. Even if a pitcher gets roughed up in a start and sent back to the minors, it does give that player the motivation to correct went wrong and return to the big club as soon as possible. 

The idea that there are hungry minor leaguers wanting your job should be motivation enough for the major league players to up their preparation and performance. But that only works if the team is ready and willing to promote their prospects quickly and put them in the starting line up to sink or swim.

With the up-tick in Tommy John injuries this season, teams have to look at faster promotion of their young live arms, just so that TJS does not happen in the minors (and losing the prospect for 2 years). Every prospect needs to be viewed as a major league asset - - - with a set amount of depreciating skills as he ages. 

It will not surprise me that if Rodon is a White Sox starter in 2015.

June 26, 2014

STANDING PAT

There is an argument to be made that the Cubs should not be a Seller in this year's free agent market.

If Epstein and Hoyer are confident in their talent as player evaluators, then 2015 is the pivotal season to put up or shut up. There have been 20, 30 and 40 year season ticket holders who cancelled their packages this season. None will return unless the Cubs field a real team. If the plan is to wait until 2020, then you will probably lose a majority of the fan base by then. The Cubs would then be worse off than the White Sox in this town.

If you stand pat on not trading away the present for the hope of the future, and promote the prospects which appear ready, then the 2015 team looks like this:

1. Alcantara 2b
2. Castro ss
3. Rizzo 1b
4. Bryant 3b
5. Baez lf
6. Castillo c
7. Lake/Sweeney cf
8. Ruggiano rf

However, if the Cubs were actual buyers in the off-season free agent market, and get a center and right fielder, the starting lineup is solidified.

The same holds true with the starting pitchers.

1. Samardzija
2. Arrieta
3. T. Wood
4. E. Jackson
5. Wada/Hendricks

The starting rotation would be about the same as this season, which has not been as bad as expected when you take out the E. Jax meltdown games.

So when we were told five years ago the Cubs were only "two players" away from a championship caliber team, the team is still not there, yet. But it is only two or three players away from fielding a competitive team in 2015.

But it takes two real tough decisions by the front office:

1. Promote everyone within striking range of the majors.
2. Spend money on several free agents this off season.

The current consensus is that ownership will not allow decision number two. And as a result, the baseball ops guys won't pull the trigger on their prospects for fear that they will have a hard time without quality veteran support.

June 25, 2014

WILL THE CUBS ROLL THE DICE?

It is possible that by Game 1 of the 2015 season, the Cubs will have set their infield for the next 5 years. In fact, it makes the most sense to set their infield as soon as possible in order to stem the tide of fan disinterest.

Kris Bryant continues to hit minor league pitching. There is no reason why he needs a full season of "training" at the AAA level. He should be the starting third baseman in 2015 (barring injury). He was an accomplished college player. Scouts believe he already has a major league bat. End of story.

As for the last infield position, Arismendy Alcantara appears ready to make the leap to the Cubs. At Triple-A Iowa, he is hitting .286 with an .843 OPS,  eight homers, 18 doubles, 10 triples and 17 stolen bases while showing off his defensive versatility.  He’s a 22-year-old switch-hitter with more power than his 5-foot-10, 170-pound frame would suggest. He proved it last summer at the All-Star Futures Game, blasting a home run into the upper deck of New York’s Citi Field.

Alcantara has the defensive tools to be a major league middle infielder. He can play second base. He has a much higher ceiling than Barney or Valbuena.

If the Cubs believe that the team needs to salvaged quicker than waiting for the alleged rainbow treasure of new broadcasting fees in 2020, 2015 becomes a pivotal year. No one is blocking Bryant and Alcantara's promotion to the major league roster. Rick Renteria was hired specifically to help young players adapt at the major league level.

The starting 2015 infield would be:
3B Bryant   SS Castro    2B Alcantara   1B Rizzo   C Castillo

Suddenly, you have nearly doubled the youth core of the team, and solidified the middle of your daily line-up.  Alcantara is a lead off hitter. Bryant is projected to be a clean up hitter. Rizzo can continue in the third slot, and Castro can move up to a comfortable #2 hole. If Castillo can regain his power, he can hit 5th or 6th.

Once the infield is set, the Cubs can fix the outfield. The current roster is filled with AAA cast-offs with no upside. The Cubs could spend in free agency and quickly turn around the outfield and actually have a competitive team on the field just a year from now.

But that is only true if the Cubs stop messing with their starting pitchers and shore up the rotation. If you think the Cubs can turn around the offense with promotions and OF free agents, then there is no reason to trade Samardzija. It would make more sense to try to extend Hammel.

This plan does involve the Cubs actually spending more money, something that the ownership has clearly decided not to do in the past three years.

June 24, 2014

REMEMBER

Remember when some Cubs fans were willing to bet the farm to sign Cub killer Albert Pujols to become a killer Cub?

Instead, Pujols signed a massive contract with the Angels, who in retrospect may have wished they did not.

Early on this season, Pujols, 34,  was healthy and looked pretty close to his old, MVP-winning self, playing every day for the Angels and hitting .302 with 10 homers and a .965 OPS through 32 games.
Unfortunately his production has slipped and now he’s hurt again, sitting out Saturday and shifting to designated hitter Sunday because of back soreness after hitting just .217 in the previous 40 games.
Pujols’ power has remained strong throughout his overall struggles and his 16 home runs rank eighth among AL hitters, but that comes with a lowly .255 batting average and .315 on-base percentage. And after a decade of walking more often than he struck out for the Cardinals he’s whiffed 36 times compared to just 23 walks in 72 total games.

He’s been better than he was last season, but just barely, and overall Pujols looks nothing like the all-time great hitter he was in St. Louis. The Angels are stuck with another seven seasons and $189 million left on his contract.

Pujols had a good first year in LA: 30 HR, 105 RBI, 4.8 WAR. But since then, he has dropped to 2013: 99 GP, 17 HR, 64 RBI, 1.9 WAR and this season: 72 GP, 16 HR, 44 RBI, 1.4 WAR.

So the Cubs by not signing Pujols dodged an expensive bullet.

June 23, 2014

WEIRDNESS

One reason baseball fans stay baseball fans is that baseball is a sport with weird, unexpected plays. For example, the Brewers scored three runs on a wild pitch. A wild pitch???! You don't see that very often.

However, there are times when weirdness is not a baseball play but how a baseball team is run.

An outfield of Coghlan, Lake and Ruggiano would spark an Iowa or Tennessee minor league line up card. But no, that was the Cubs starters in Sunday's game.

On a day when the Algerian national soccer team scored more goals than the Cubs scored runs, as a baseball fan, you know something weird is going on. It is more probable that more Cubs fans were watching the soccer games than tuning into to see the Cubs go nearly hitless against the Pirates.

It is a weird time in Cub history. Repeated stories have quoted television officials as saying that last year the Cubs had several telecasts with zero ratings. That means the viewers have turned off the Cubs as they sank toward the bottom. Well, the Cubs are back on the bottom so ratings are probably floundering more than a weak team soccer goal tender.

When people begin to understand the nuances of soccer, and its set plays and strategies, the same type of fan of baseball can follow soccer. It has a similar pace with baseball. But no one in U.S. ever thought that soccer would ever surpass baseball in TV viewership. But at the local level, and for the World Cup, it probably has done so. Whether it can grow the sport at baseball's expense is a debatable question (as with each World Cup, pundits predict that soccer would explode professionally in the U.S. but that has never happened).

The one event that Ricketts has not touted for his new Wrigley entertainment venue is soccer. Maybe he thinks soccer is too much competition for the Cubs.