LOSING THE CLUBHOUSE

Tony LaRussa is a fossilized dinosaur. His ideas about baseball are out of touch. His managing skills have been questioned all season. Some observers think his strategies and decisions have cost the White Sox at least three games this season. There were early rumors that many players in the clubhouse did not support LaRussa as their manager. Some think the players are winning in spite of LaRussa.
Things are coming to an ugly crossroads within the White Sox clubhouse.

The White Sox were routing the Twins, the preseason favorite to win the AL Central. The White Sox had built up a huge lead that in the late innings the Twins used an infielder as a relief pitcher.
On Monday night, Rookie Yermin Mercedes  drove a 3-0 pitch from infielder William Astudillo  deep to center in the ninth for a home run.  White Sox manager La Russa said Mercedes made a mistake, and the Hall of Fame skipper apologized to the Twins. LaRussa publicly stated that Mercedes was "clueless" about the unwritten rule(s) of baseball and that he would be punished for violating that unwritten rule.

However, prior to the Mercedes home run, the Twins bench was laughing at the White Sox who Astudillo got two outs against. Starter Lance Lynn defended Mercedes after the game. He called the Twins "crybabies" in their reaction to Mercedes hitting a HR in the 9th. "There are no rules when you put a position player out to pitch," he said. "If (the Twins) had a problem with it, then put in a (real) pitcher."

In the next game, Mercedes was the center of attention once again Twins reliever Tyler Duffey was ejected for throwing behind Mercedes in the seventh. Duffey threw the first pitch of the at-bat behind the slugger's legs. Duffey and Twins manager Rocco Baldelli then were ejected by plate umpire Jim Reynolds.

"It wasn't obvious to me," La Russa said. "The guy threw a sinker. It didn't look good. So, I wasn't that suspicious. I'm suspicious if somebody throws at somebody's head. Then I'm suspicious. I don't have a problem with how the Twins handled that."

Of course, no one believes LaRussa. It was an intentional "show up" pitch by the Twins. The pitcher was throwing at Mercedes. But LaRussa refused to publicly defend his player.

Nothing can lose a clubhouse faster than a manager not defending or having the backs of his players. Clearly, LaRussa "clueless" about what is happening on the field. By not sticking up for his player TWICE in consecutive days for doing NOTHING wrong, LaRussa has shown that he is not capable of leading the team to the playoffs.

But LaRussa is going to stay. He was an owner hire not GM Rick Hahn's choice. Jerry Reinsdorf has for decades regretted terminating LaRussa as White Sox manager. So he brought him back when Hahn had constructed a very good, play-off caliber team. 

When a team is fighting against significant injuries (the team has lost its entire starting outfield), a manager is supposed to support and rally the remaining players to battle. Instead, LaRussa was apologetic and weak. There were some commentators who thought before these incidents that LaRussa could be fired after the season. A few thought there was a remote chance he could be terminated during the season. But since the White Sox are still in first place (10.5 games ahead of the Twins), LaRussa's job is secure because he is Jerry's guy. And in the end Jerry calls the shots on the managerial position, even if it is detrimental to the team.

THOSE DARN SOX

Reporters, insiders, pundits and fans are perplexed by the White Sox pivotal off-season move.

MLBTR reports on the announcement and immediate ash fall.

The White Sox announced today that Hall of Famer Tony La Russa is returning to the organization as their new manager for the 2021 season. La Russa has agreed to a multi-year deal according to Scott Merkin of MLB.com.

La Russa managed the White Sox from 1979 and ran through the 1986 season. It appears that La Russa was owner Jerry Reinsdorf’s pick from the beginning. Indeed, ESPN’s Jeff Passan stated that the move to hire La Russa was purely a “Reinsdorf decision” while noting that others in the organizations “have concerns” about La Russa’s ability (or lack thereof) to connect with the club’s young core.

It’s been nine full seasons since La Russa last managed at the MLB level, with the Cardinals, and the game has changed considerably since that time. Data from clubs’ analytics departments has increasingly made its way into in-game decision-making, often generating polarizing reaction from fans, and the sport as a whole has moved to embrace aggressive defensive shifts and pitching strategies that defy the conventional wisdom which permeated big league dugouts during La Russa’s last run.

Since that time, La Russa has remained involved in the game in a variety of roles, most notably serving as the Diamondbacks’ “chief baseball officer” from 2014-17 — a stint that is remembered more for his role in overseeing one of the more lopsided trades in recent memory than for the team’s performance in that time.

After moving on from skipper Rick Renteria, it was reported that the White Sox wanted an experienced manager with a winning pedigree, which prompted many onlookers to speculate about Hinch and former Red Sox manager Alex Cora. La Russa does fit the bill on a fundamental level, having spent 33 years a Major League manager during which time he’s posted a .536 winning percentage, taken home six pennants and won three World Series titles.

Still, to say this hiring bucks the industry trend at this point would be making a colossal understatement, and the decision to bring La Russa aboard has already generated a rather perplexed reaction from those within the game and pundits alike.

LaRussa can be considered an old school hard liner, but he was in the forefront of creating the modern bullpen assignments in managing a pitching staff (more credit could go to pitching coach Dave Duncan). There is a question whether LaRussa's presence will upend the current roster chemistry that exceeded expectations in 2021.

There is no doubt that Jose Abreu can keep the numerous young Latin players in line. It is the vocal, clubhouse guys like Tim Anderson and Dallas Kuechel who could be a concern. They know they are ready, willing and able to win. Will LaRussa be a help or a hinderance?

It was also puzzling that the White Sox did not interview any other candidate. League rules require at least a minority interview, and it is claimed that LaRussa qualifies because his mother was born in Spain. But it did not matter because who is going to ruffle the feathers of Reinsdorf, who is still considered a leader of the MLB owners.

The other key decision points to come will have LaRussa's input: coaching staff and free agent roster decisions. The White Sox need to shore up starting rotation depth and middle relief. Right field is still an open for someone to take it. Will the Sox retain second catcher James McCann or go with their two minor league catchers? Is Michael Kopech ready physically and mentally to assume the #3 starter role in 2021? Or do the White Sox spend money on a big free agent arm like Trevor Bauer (another off-the-cuff speaker who can rub some people the wrong way).

 For years, local media has reported that Reinsdorf desperately wanted to win another World Series. It probably stung when the Cubs won in 2016, putting the White Sox back into little brother position. But the building excitement is on the South Side as the Cubs have hit a hard financial wall and barren farm system.

ALL-CHICAGO

Winter baseball in Chicago usually revolves the debate between Cub  and White Sox fans on whose team has better players or a better chance to win next season.

The Cubs path has been in a disappointing decline. The White Sox path has been rebuilding but stalling on development of starting pitchers.

A side by side comparison of the current 40 man roster players (2019 WAR). (*= injury year; R = Rookie Year).

SP1:  Giolito (5.6) v. Hendricks (3.9) 
SP2:  Kopech (0.1*) v. Darvish (3.0)
SP3: Cease (-0.2) v. Lester (1.7)
SP4:  Lopez (0.5) v. Quintana (0.7)
SP5: Rodon (0.1 *) v. Mills (1.0)

Giolito was clearly the best starter in Chicago. Kopech and Rodon were injured. Cease disappointed (but he may have been rushed to the majors). Hendricks and Darvish had good years. Lopez and Quintana are nearly wash. Lester is on the twilight of his pitching career. If you were going to give anyone an slight edge (3 to 2), it would be the White Sox with youth and potential vs. Cubs you saw what you have season. Rodon has experience Mills does not.

C:  McCann (3.8) v. Contreras (3.1)  McCann has a very quiet but better season than Contreras, who is now the trade bait rumor of the day.

1B: Abreu (2.4) v. Rizzo (3.9)  Rizzo had to grind away to get his normal stat season; while Abreu surprised as an AL RBI machine with league leading 123.

2B: Sanchez (2.1) v. Hoerner (R)  Sanchez won a gold glove and the Cubs second base position has been a black hole.

SS: Anderson (4.0) v. Baez (4.8) This is closer than people think, but the nod is still to Baez for his dynamic running ability and defense.

3B: Moncada (4.6) v Bryant (3.6).  Moncada had a quiet monster season for the White Sox, significantly better than Bryant.

The infield selection yields in favor of the White Sox by a 3 to 2 margin.

LF: Jiminez (1.4) v. Schwarber (2.3)  Schwarber had his best full season in LF, but he is still compared to Adam Dunn. Jiminez still has more potential. Both are not good defensively. It is almost a wash, but based upon last season the edge goes to Schwarber (who also may be trade bait).

CF: Robert (R) v. Almora (-1.0)  It is not often that an unproven rookie would get the nod, but Robert is projected as a serious 5 tool stud. Almora has been terrible in his opportunities to win the CF spot.

RF: Garcia (1.6) v. Heyward (2.0). This position currently stands as almost a wash, but if you have to chose, Heyward for his defense.

The Cubs outfield squeaks out the nod. But both teams will have to address their weak outfield positions.

Closer: Colome (1.0) v. Kimbrel (-0.5) The White Sox did not trade their closer at the deadline even though he had value. He will have more value with a better team as the White Sox project in 2020. Kimbrel has been terrible. He was beyond rusty; he was bad. But the Cubs are stuck with him.

Overall, both bullpens are going to churned by both teams so you cannot gauge how it will turn out into after spring training.

In the current state, the Cubs and White Sox appear pretty even. The Cubs could continue to decline and the White Sox could rise to meet as .500 clubs in 2020. That would not be surprising.

TRADE HERO

The story line this morning is the myopic chant that the
Cubs should have never traded last night's Sox hero, Jimenez, to
the hated White Sox for SP Quintana.

There is gripe that Quintana was not the solid #2 starter that the
Cubs got in the trade, but Q has amassed a 3.9 pitching WAR since
his mid-2017 acquisition.

Jimenez may turn out to be great, or OK. Jorge Soler was sent to
KC for a closer (Wade Davis) but Soler was an injury prone
underachiever since he got to the Royals. This year he seems to
getting better: .245 BA, 20 HR, 52 RBI (third in the AL).

But you have to remember the fan debates that wanted the Cubs
to trade the new favorite, Schwarber, to the White Sox for Chris Sale.
That never happened. Schwarber has yet to blossom into the
.300 hitting power monster Baby Bambino. Sale continues to be
one of the best pitchers in the AL. (A 14.5 pitching WAR since he
arrive in Boston in 2017).

The Cubs traded Gleybar Torres, another top prospect, to get
Chapman from the Yanks (which was the move that won the Series).
Chapman was an expensive rental because Torres has 4.9 WAR
in only 190 games.

Trades are not won or lost when they are made. And they are not
evaluated based on one game against the team that traded you.

The Cubs picked up Quintana because he was reliable and cheap
($10 million/year). We know that the Cubs are in a huge budget
brick wall so finding a reliable starter for under $10 million is
impossible. (Chatwood still costs $13 million/year). 

The bottom line is you cannot say at this moment  it is a bad trade
even when your former Number One prospect comes back to
bite you.

TRAPS

Baseball free agency is getting very interesting.
Free agency was meant to give players freedom to find
a new club, balance family lifestyle with professional duties
and to make more money.

But for the two superstars, this FA season is turning sour.

They interviewed with very few teams.

Current reports state that Phillies, Yankees and White Sox
interviewed with Machado, while the Cubs, Dodgers, Phillies
and Cardinals spoke to Harper after he rejected the Nats offer.

Both players don't want to play for the Phils (who seem to
be offering the most money). Both players prefer to play
for the Yankees, but the Yanks have no interest in Harper.

It just leaves Machado with the Yankees, who have signaled
they are not going to spend heavily this off season on players
and the White Sox, who have never spent heavily on free agency.

It just leaves Harper with the Phils as both the Dodgers and
Cubs claim not to have payroll room to sign him, and the Cardinals
don't seem to be the black knight willing to cough up $400 million
on one player.

One speculates that Harper may have to throttle back his 10 year
megacontract demand and take a 5 year deal with an opt out after
3 season (so he can get to FA again before 30). That kind of deal
could open up one or two more teams to bottom feed if the number
is not $40 million/year but more like $25 to $30 million/year.
In other words, Harper may have to settle for a J.D. Martinez
type of deal just before spring training begins.

And considering the current roller coaster stock market where
rich men's savings are are getting whipsawed with losses, team
owners are extra wary of signing a huge contract with problematic players.

This appears not to be collusion but basic economics. Teams are not growing
local revenue streams. A big market team signing a Machado or Harper will not
add any significant numbers to attendance revenue. Cord cutting has hurt
cable operators who see the sports license fees as a major reason households
do not want to pay increasing monthly cable bills. 

Organizations are now more focused on the draft, international free agents
and the trade market to structure their minor and major league systems. Draft
choices are more important than major free agent signings.  Major free agency
signings cripple payroll flexibility, can hit the team with luxury taxes and 
potentially block rising homegrown stars in their minor league system.

Machado and Harper played so well during their career to earn a Tier 1 free agent
status. But by playing so well, they trapped themselves into a very limited market.
Teams and smart players who sign early in free agency, tend to do better at managing
the organizational budgetary pressures. Teams would rather fix their bullpens with
one or two relievers than sign a big money free agent hitter (with subpar defensive
stats). 

Also, teams have wised up and do not bid against themselves. At the winter meetings,
teams interested in free agents gave agents their best offer (like the Nationals did to Harper
at the end of the season.) It is no longer an auction where the agent controls the flow
of bids or pits teams against each other. Teams with strict ownership budget guidelines
do not have the time or resources to go with the flow in an active auction setting.

Machado and Harper have probably gotten the "best" offers from the various suitors.
And those offers may have been less than their own perceived market value.
So the agents are playing the sports media card, telling Philadelphia their client(s) don't
want to play there (in hopes the Phils will increase their offer) or to have secondary clubs
make a second raise in their final bid to snare a superstar.

 It is a cat and mouse, risk reward type of game that many teams have an advantage. But there
are always some teams that pay stupid money on players who underperform, get hurt or
handcuff the organizational budgets for years. All the big market teams have their golden anchor contracts choking their books. It is harder for player agents to navigate around those ships
trapped in their own dead money harbors.

WHITE SOX FREE AGENCY

The 2019 White Sox have a payroll of around $34 million. The rebuild has stripped the club of most of its veteran contracts. So, in theory, the team is poised to spend money on free agents. However, during Reinsdorf's tenure, the team has only spent $64 million total on one player (Jose Abreu).

But the buzz from the Winter Meetings has been that the White Sox have been talking to the superstar free agents like Bryce Harper. Most people scoff at the prospect of a superstar signing with a 100 loss team.

But the real bottom line for superstars is to go where the money is because
that is why they have high power agents.

There is growing case that teams like the White Sox are the only big dollar landing
spots for Harper, Machado, Kuechel, etc. If the White Sox want a marquee player
to be the face of the franchise, they can pay him and still not even break an $80 million
payroll because of the rebuild. They can be selling (like the Cubs did with Lester) all the
great (pitching) prospects in the minors so the turnaround will be quick.

The Sox drew 1.6 million fans in 2017. If Harper adds 5,000/game attendance (405,000)
the gross revenue could increase by $20 million (based on 2017 average cost to attend game)
which would be 2/3 of Harper's salary.

High attendance high payroll clubs like the Cubs do not have any ball park revenue growth
to justify signing a big money free agent.  Signing Harper would not increase attendance revenues at Wrigley Field. 

Would a superstar like Harper want to be the "brand" of the White Sox. Clearly, if he was, he would get local endorsement deals and his No. 34 jersey would be a top seller. But those in Washington think Harper's personality does not fit that role. He wants to be plugged into a veteran, high win team who can win a championship or two. That is why he has been trolling the Cubs to sign him so he would not have to "carry" the team.

There may be a mystery team in the Harper sweepstakes. For example, the Giants are saying they are in a state of change. They are willing to entertain offers on Bumgartner. They have only 12 veterans on the roster but the projected payroll for 2019 is around $175 million. Adding a $30 million player is feasible to be under the luxury tax threshold, but you could spend the same amount and acquire 5 or 6 second tier free agents to actually create a competitive roster.

Harper's agent, Scott Boras, is still playing the preachy waiting game. It did not work well for last year's client, J.D. Martinez, who signed a team friendly deal with Red Sox prior to the start of spring training. One would think an agent would want to get a deal done sooner than later because teams are now more focused on trading for roster changes than signing free agents.

BOOSTER SHOTS

Since the Cubs acquired second baseman Daniel Murphy, the team is 6-0.
Murphy is hitting .407, 2 HR, 5 RBI, .448 OBP and 0.4 WAR since leading off for the Cubs. He solved two problems: the lead off hitter slot and the weak offensive production. He was the spark plug that ignited the Cubs current six game winning streak.

Cole Hamels has been a godsend to the Cubs rotation. Not only has he taken the place of Yu Darvish, he has pushed the other starters to perform better. In his five starts (all Cub victories), he is 4-0, 0.79 ERA, 0.941 WHIP. As a veteran presence, he took some pressure off Jon Lester to lead a shaky staff into the final two month grind of the season.

On the South Side, the White Sox starting pitchers have a streak of quality starts. Michael Kopech's debut in the rain was impressive, as was his second start. He is 1-0 with a 1.13 ERA. But even more impressive has been Carlos Rodon. He has solidified his role as a #1 starter (and was one of the reasons the Sox traded Chris Sale). Rodon is 6-3, 2.70 ERA, 1.007 WHIP. Young starters Reynolaldo Lopez and Lucas Giolito have been coming on strong after a rocky first half of the season.

The 2019 rotation is starting to take shape very quickly. A White Sox staff of Rodon, Kopech, Lopez, Giolito and a fifth starter from Carson Fullmer, Dylan Covery, Jordan Stepehns, Tyler Danish or Donn Roach will be solid. After completing the starting pitching part of the rebuild, it should be easier to consolidate the offense when Elroy Jimenez joins the team in late April, 2019.

It is interesting to note that the addition of a player or two can really turn around a ball club with both excitement and enhanced performance.

MACHO MACHO MAN

Manny Machado is a very good baseball player. He is in the last year on his Orioles' contract. He will hit the free agent market at the end of 2018 with Bryce Harper as one of the best available free agents.

Last season he hit .259, 33 HR, 95 RBI, 9 SB, .310 OBP and 3.5 WAR.  His career WAR is 27.9.

He wants to play shortstop instead of third base. At the Winter Meetings, his name surfaced around the time of the Giancarlo Stanton rumors. Apparently, Baltimore was shopping their star player to gauge the trade market.

So casting a fat worm in a slow free agent pond made news. The surprising fact that the Cubs and White Sox made offers for Machado.

The White Sox are in full re-build mode. The team would have to give up two quality pitching prospects to rent Machado for one season makes no sense (unless you sign him to a long term contract). But the White Sox have never guaranteed more than $69 million in any deal. Machado will be looking to break the $200 million mark (he will only be 26 when he hits free agency). Yes, the White Sox have ten quality arms in the minors so they can trade from strength. But on the other hand, pitching is so scarce it may be more valuable to hold on to the top prospects.

The Cubs trading for Machado makes even less sense. Why would you give up three years of contract control of a Baez or Russell for a one-year of Machado? The Cubs have the bats if the current players live up to their potential. If the Cubs have $200 million to toss around next off-season (which is doubtful), reports have their target being Harper and not Machado. And the fact that Rizzo, Bryant, Hendricks and other core members will have contract increases plays a major factor against the Cubs signing an expensive free agent.

Currently, the Orioles have cooled the trade speculation. But apparently the White Sox made the best offer but it was rejected by Baltimore whose owner tends not to let good players be traded off his roster.

It is true that the White Sox need good hitting prospects to balance out their system. It is true that the Cubs need top pitching prospects to fill in gaping needs. In theory, the Cubs and White Sox are perfect trade partners but the Quintana deal was a once in a decade thing.

If Machado gets traded, it will be at the trade deadline if the Orioles are woefully out of the pennant race. But the odds favor Machado ending his contract term in Baltimore.

BARGAIN SALE

When the White Sox shopped Chris Sale, the team wanted to receive top value in return.

The Red Sox acquired Sale. To date, Boston has to be thrilled with his performance.

In 21 starts this season, Sale is 13-4, 2.37 ERA, 211 K, 0.876 WHIP and 5.3 WAR.  He is clearly on pace for serious consideration for MVP voting.

The White Sox received several highly touted prospects for Sale: infielder Yoan Moncada, rated the #1 prospect in baseball by some scouts,  hard throwing pitcher Michael Kopech along with  minor leaguers Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz.

Moncada has made his Sox debut. He hit his first major league HR off the Cubs. He projects to be one of GM Rick Hahn's "core" players in the rebuild. The Sox did not plan to rush him to the majors. But in 23 ABs, he is hitting only .130, with 1 HR and 5 RBI.

The trade will make sense for Chicago if Moncada is an above average middle infielder with power and that Kopech becomes a #1 starter in the majors. Power pitchers have a tendency to break down faster due to control issues.  Sale became a dominant starter when he learned to pull back his velocity, change speeds and play to soft contact to preserve his arm from stressful innings.

The White Sox have a strong history of developing quality pitchers so it seems Kopech is in a good system to succeed. If the White Sox get two All-Stars for one, then both teams can claim they got a bargain in the trade.

REBUILDS

The White Sox made another big trade, getting rid of three major league players for three prospects and a relief pitcher.

The White Sox are following the Cubs tear down style of rebuilding their organization.

The Sox may have the best farm system in the game with 9 Top 100 prospects.

But if you look at what these rebuilds represents a key level: failure.

Failure of a team's existing draft and developmental skills of players they targeted for the minor leagues.

Only 2 of the Sox Top 10 prospects were drafted by the team (SP Fulmer and C Collins). The rest of the top prospects have been acquired through trade or international free agency.

This style of burn down the major league roster to acquire a boat load of prospects is a risky venture because not all prospects pan out to be major league players. In addition, the team is going to have a rough time winning at the major league level. Sox attendance has been historically tied to the team winning games.

This plan also is couched as a long term solution to correct mediocrity but it is a short term hit or miss operation. If the prospects you acquired do not become All-Star caliber players (or even good major league players), your major league roster is devoid of trade assets to try and second rebuild operation.

The Dodger way has been to draft well, have exceptional development programs in the minors, to create the ability to promote every season  a rookie-of-the-year candidate. In the last few years, the Dodgers called up impact players Corey Seager, Joc Pedersen and Cody Bellinger. Add a home grown ace like Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers have the luxury to trade veterans or pick up key free agents on an annual basis to meet specific needs.

The Cubs reaped the highest reward from its rebuild: a championship. But now a year removed, the Cubs have struggled to maintain the championship caliber. Last year's players are not hitting, fielding or pitching like they did last season.  Was 2016 an fluke? Is 2017 more the norm?

And the Cubs now find themselves with their prized prospects on the major league roster, and their farm system weak after trading away the remaining high prospects for needs such as a closer in Chapman last season and a starter in Quintana this year.  The Cubs have been caught in a trap of their own making; the team was built to win with the existing roster for the next few years. If they cannot perform up to the front office expectations, then this would be a huge set back for the organization.

AFFORDABLE STARTERS (REVISED POST)

The following column was to be posted tomorrow. It was a discussion on why the White Sox could not trade starter Jose Quintana, since he is the most affordable starting pitcher in baseball.  But game changing news today:

CHICAGO (ESPN) The Cubs and White Sox pulled off a blockbuster deal with the White Sox sending lefty Jose Quintana to their crosstown rivals for Cubs top hitting prospect Eloy Jimenez as well as top pitching prospect Dylan Cease.

The Cubs are also sending Single-A infielders Matt Rose and Bryant Flete to the White Sox to complete the deal.

Jimenez, a 20-year-old outfielder, is the No. 5 prospect in baseball, according to ESPN's Keith Law.
Quintana, 28, is 4-8 with a 4.49 ERA this season after going 13-12 with a 3.20 ERA last year. He has a career 3.51 ERA and fills an immediate and long-term need for the Cubs as they're short on starting pitching. They rank eighth in the National League in starter's ERA plus employ pending free agents John Lackey and Jake Arrieta.


"It is always extremely difficult to trade a person and player like Jose Quintana," White Sox general manager Rich Hahn said in a statement, "but difficult as it was, this deal moves us closer to our goal of building a team capable of contending for multiple championships over an extended period of time. Jose, our scouts and coaches throughout the organization deserve a tremendous amount of credit for his development from a minor league free agent signee to one of the most sought-after talents in the game."

The Cubs have been looking to add to their pitching staff, which has performed much worse this season that in last year's World Series run, but they did not want a rental. Quintana is under contract through 2020, earning $8.85 million, $10.5 million and $11.5 million in 2018-20.

The following post still discusses the concept of affordable starters. The Cubs acquisition of Quintana is a huge deal for the defending champs. And it was quite unexpected since the Cubs had been discussing affordable pitchers with the Tigers.

The original post:

MLB general managers favorite buzz phrase is "affordable starters." Every team is looking to acquire affordable, young (cheap), controllable (years on contract before free agency) starters (who can throw 200+ innings per season).

It is like trying to find unicorns in the local forest preserve.

Traditionally, teams developed their own rotations from drafting quality pitchers. However, many teams have abandoned this hit or miss strategy to buy or trade for starting pitchers. A free agent veteran costs more money because there is a proven track record. A minor league prospect also has a track record but no major league experience to determine if his stuff will make it long term in the majors. The best hitters often feast on the weakest pitchers.

Contending teams are always looking to upgrade their pitching staffs in late summer as insurance against injury or dry spells. But teams that are out of contention now want a King's ransom for any pitcher who may have a promising career.

The White Sox are still looking to get two Top 10 prospects and at least one major league ready position player in trade for Jose Quintana. Quintana had been a solid #2 starter behind Chris Sale. He has not gotten the run support from Sox during his career, but he has been a solid performer.

Quintana, 28, in 172 games has a career 50-54, 3.51 ERA, 1.250 WHIP and 21.1 WAR.

This year is stats are down (but lately improving.) He is 4-8, 4.49 ERA, 1.323 WHIP and 0.9 WAR.

The most important feature about him is his team friendly contract. He is signed through the 2020 season for $31.9 million. That is less than 5th starter money these days. His average WAR salary value per season is $20 million. Clearly, he is a bargain starter.

So the White Sox are justified in asking for the moon to trade Quintana. It seems to be a done deal except for a trade partner.

But should the White Sox trade their #1 starter?

Only if you believe Carlos Rodon can be your #1 in the future. Rodon, 24, in 2.5 years has a 19-18 record, 3.93 ERA and 1.414 WHIP and 3.0 WAR.

The saving grace is that the White Sox have built up a massive amount of quality pitching arms in the minors. Of their top 20 prospects, 10 are pitchers: Kopech (2), Giolito (4), Lopez (5), Fulmer (6), Burdi (8), Hansen (10), Dunning (11), Adams (12), Stephens (14) and Flores (19).  Beck and Holmberg have already been promoted to the major league roster.

Kopech, Giolito, Lopez and Fulmer will be promoted to the bigs within two years as starters. Burdi's 100 mph stuff projects as the new closer. By 2019, the White Sox could have a 9+ deep starting staff.

But that presumes that none of the prospects have arm injuries or the yips when they face major league hitters. The White Sox coaching staff does have a track record of developing starting pitchers so there is hope very soon for a pitching windfall.

But the Sox could be even stronger if they kept the durable Quintana in the rotation. That way the team does not have to rush a prospect to the major league club. And Quintana is THE affordable, controllable pitcher that any team, including the White Sox, will always look for their roster.

A SURPRISE EXTENSION

In Chicago, the talk was about possible extension for Champion Cub players like Kris Bryant or Jake Arrieta.  But it is the White Sox that raised eyebrows with a long term signing of their second year shortstop.

The Tribune reports the  Sox have signed 23-year-old shortstop Tim Anderson to a six-year contract extension.

The contract includes two club options that would give the Sox control of the 23-year-old through 2024 and would bring the value of the deal to $50.5 million if both are exercised. Anderson likely would have been arbitration-eligible for the 2020 season and a free agent after the 2022 season.

It is being reported that no player with less than a year of major-league service time has ever signed such a lucrative deal. Anderson, who hit .283/.306/.432 last year and struck out nine times as often as he walked in 410 at-bats while playing solid defense, will attempt to become the first homegrown White Sox position player to amass 10 WAR with the team since Joe Crede, who last played with the team in 2008. The story notes that Fangraphs only projects Anderson for a .260/.284/.381 batting line.

The White Sox have done well in drafting and developing pitching prospects. But the organization fell into a deep, dark hole when it came to developing position players and hitters. Anderson is really the first farm system position player that fans saw real potential.

But to knock out an extension THREE years before any normal club would even think about one is strange. Rookies often show promise in their first call up, but there is never a guarantee that they will put together a long term career. There is an air of desperation to calm the nerves of fans who don't like the concept of a "total rebuild." But this marks Anderson as one of the White Sox's new "core" players that the team will be built around. It seems like a risk that did not have to be taken so soon.

QUINTANA MARKET

Jose Quintana is an under-the-radar ace. He is only 27 years old. He is under team control for four more years at a very low salary.  In five major league seasons, he has gone 46-46, 3.41 ERA, 1.242 WHIP and 20.5 WAR. By most estimations, he is more valuable trade chip than Chris Sale.

When the White Sox were dealing at the Winter Meetings, everybody was on the table. There were rumors that several teams were interested in Quintana: the Astros, the Mets, and the Nationals. But once Sale was traded to the Red Sox for the best prospects Boston had available, the price for Quintana apparently went up. And once the Nationals seemingly overpaid for CF Adam Eaton, talks on Quintana have become whispers.

There are other teams that have been kicking the tires. The Orioles do not have the top level prospects to cut a deal, and they are unlikely to deal two players off their 25 man roster as part of a package.

The Mets are in a similar position, but they are looking for bullpen studs rather than starting pitching.

Even though the White Sox are rich in minor league starters, GM Rick Hahn continues to stockpile arms. The Mets will not part with Steven Matz in a Quintana deal.

The Rangers are always an odd-fellow in the trade market. The Rangers always prize starting pitchers as acquisition targets. But it is unclear whether the Rangers have enough depth to pull off a multi-player deal.

A team with an potential excess of starting pitchers is the Dodgers. Injuries mowed down its entire rotation. It will start camp with eight or nine legitimate major league starters. Adding Quintana would not make much sense, but the Dodgers could be the conduit of a three team trade to move some of their excess starters to another club in exchange for a starting second basemen.

But the one team that still is trying to get a deal done is the Pirates. The Pirates would love to have a cost controlled starter to throw behind Gerrit Cole. Pittsburgh did re-sign ex-Yankee Nova but the team wants to maintain its budget with players who value exceeds the price. However, moving Andrew McCutchen to the White Sox is not part of the discussion.

The White Sox have received enough fan support to go through the rest of the off-season without making any further moves. But Quintana, because of his highly favorable contract, will continue to draw interest. Ironically, the Cubs main message this off-season has been to acquire a young, controllable starting pitcher. Quintana is the that pitcher.

REVERSE COURSE FULL SPEED AHEAD

In the previous two off-seasons, White Sox GM Hahn was credited as winning the winter by the moves he made to bring major league talent in an effort to win now. But all those acquisitions underperformed to the point of discontent both in the locker room and stands.

At mid-season, Hahn said he was unhappy with the performance of his club. He said the off-season would signal which direction the team was going to take. It is apparent this is a total, painful, four year rebuild process.

Ace Chris Sale had worn out his welcome with President Kenny Williams. The Sox could not win with him, so with his three year $48 million ownership friendly deal, the White Sox acquired four Red Sox prospects, including the #1 overall position prospect in Yoan Moncada.

Boston also sent highly touted pitching prospect Michael Kopech, outfielder Luis Alexander Basabe and right-hander Victor Diaz to Chicago. Moncada is the #1 ranked in the game, according to MLBPipeline.com. The deal marks the first time in at least 25 years that baseball's No. 1 prospect has been traded, based on the rankings done by MLB Pipeline and Baseball America.

If that was not enough, Hahn stunned the winter meetings by trading OF Adam Eaton to the Nationals for their three best prospects, including the #1 pitching prospect in the game.

Eaton, 28, is under contract for the next 5 years. He had a freak 6.0 WAR last season after moving from CF to RF. He had been one of the most productive outfielders in the Majors during the past three years even though he has flown a bit under the radar. Since 2014, he has accumulated a 12.7 WAR according to FanGraphs, which ranks 10th among all Major League outfielders. The locals who watched Eaton play on a daily basis were underwhelmed by his play, especially in CF. But the Nationals are going to play him in center so to move their best prospect, Trea Turner, to shortstop. Some believe that Eaton will wind up in RF in Washington because their home park has a large CF area that Eaton cannot cover. Bryce Harper, who is looking for a $400 million extension, could move to center. The Nationals clearly believe that their championship window is closing so they had to make a deal for an affordable, multiple tool center fielder.

In order to acquire Eaton, the Nationals traded Lucas Giolito (#1 prospect), Reynaldo Lopez (#2 prospect) and  and Dane Dunning (#6 prospect, last year's first round pick). The three right-handed pitchers are very young, but Gilolito and Lopez have tasted limited major league action. Lopez was stellar in some of his starts with a plus fastball and killer curve.  Giolito is baseball's number 3 overall and Lopez comes in at No. 38, but some scouts believe Lopez may have more upside.

So in a matter of 24 hours, the White Sox have turned their bottom quarter farm system into a Top 5 organization. The minors are now loaded with Top 100 prospects: 1., Moncada, 3.Giolito, 30 Kopech, 38 Lopez, 58 Carson Fulmer, 80 Zack Collins. The Top 10 Sox prospects are now 1 Moncada, 2, Giolito, 3 Kopech, 4 Lopez, 5. Fulmer, 6. Collins, 7 Spencer Adams, 8 Zack Burdi, 9 Luis Basabe, and 10 Dunning. Six of the Top Ten White Sox prospects have arrived in the past 24 hours.

The crazy thing is that the White Sox had good quality pitching prospects before the two deals. On the prospect list are pitchers Alec Hansen (14), LHP Jordan Guerreo (16), Jordan Stephens (17), Tyler Danish (21), LHP Brian Clark (22), and Chris Beck (24). No wonder no one blinks at the prospect that Hahn could pull the trigger and trade SP Jose Quintana to reap the same type of return as Chris Sale.

It is true that most prospects to not pan out to be impact major league players. But the Sox now have so much pitching depth that it is more probable than not that in the near future they will field a home grown, dominating starting rotation which would be the envy of the league.

A SHIP TO SALE

Jason Stark was on ESPN Radio recently talking about the Chris Sale market. He said teams have said that the White Sox demands are extremely high for their ace. He said it looks like the Sox want to have a team's No. 1 prospect, two more in top five and another quality player (probably major league ready). Not many teams are willing to unload 3 or 4 of their best prospects for one player.

But reports continue to surface that the Red Sox, Rangers, Nationals, Astros and the Braves have asked about Sale. Stark predicts that the price may come down, and the Sox will trade Sale before Opening Day.

Sale will command the highest price tag because this year's starting pitching FA crop is barren. The Red Sox and Nationals have indicated that they are not trading their top prospects.

It is felt that the Astros will be the most aggressive team this off-season. Houston is poised to make a break out season like the Cubs in 2015. The Astros have inked OF Aoki, Reddick,  C McCann and SP Morton. The top prospects in the system include #1 (#29 overall) RHP Franics Martes, 21, who is moved up quickly to AA with a 9-6, 3.30 record as a starter. #2 is OF Kyle Tucker, 19, in A ball. #3 is RHP Forrest Whitley, a 6'7" rookie league player. #4 is RHP David Paulino to went through 3 levels to make a sip of coffee in the bigs last season.  #5 is OF Derek Fuller, a lefty hitting OF who hit .245, 16 HR, 59 RBI and 23 SB in AAA. Another good prospect is first rounder 3B Colin Moran who hit .259, 10 HR, 69 RBI in AAA. He is major league ready.

The White Sox have plenty of pitching prospects but are weak on position prospects.  Did the Astros signal with their outfield signings it would be willing to trade George Springer, 27, who hit .261, 29 HR, 82 RBI in the right deal for a stud starter? Springer is under team control to 2021.

In order for the White Sox to "win" the Sale deal, they need to get the "best" player in the deal in return. Springer does fit a real long term need. Adding a lefty speed OF in Fuller and 3B Moran could be part of a package, since the White Sox are willing to trade Todd Frazier because the third base free agent market is as bad as the starting pitching one.

If the Sox want to trade a big piece, they have to get young quick. That was the formula that the Cubs used to snare Addison Russell.

The Sox have fence sitting fans. Any Sale trade needs to bring back immediate "impact" players in return. 

SALE SIGNS

ESPN's Buster Olney reports that teams tell him that they believe the White Sox “are serious about their intention to trade Chris Sale.  Only reports that  Chicago has told rival clubs they’re willing to trade anyone with fewer than four years of team control remaining, which would mean Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Adam Eaton and Tim Anderson are off the table, but names like Sale, Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera and David Robertson are all in play.

Sale’s name figures to dominate next week’s Winter Meetings, and the wide range of options available to Chicago GM Rick Hahn should mean the White Sox will be connected to plenty of trade scenarios.

Sale has worn out his welcome in Chicago. His clubhouse revolt in spring training on the Adam LaRoche matter, to the cutting of throw back uniforms in a tantrum, has made him an unwanted diva.

And Sale is the premier trading asset this off-season. The free agent starting pitching market is as dry as the desert.

The Sox could go in fire sale mode.

It seems the idea many teams are adopting is the concept of a young "core" of players under control for multiple years. Once you establish a set core of players (like the Cubs did), you can then fill needs through free agency or trade.

Olney's report states that Sox have decided that 4 years of player control is the "core" the team wants to use in order to target for a championship in 2020. But with only four core players (SP Quintana, SP Rodon, OF Eaton and SS Anderson) the White Sox are still far away from the playoffs.

However, to the right team, Sale could bring in five under-25 prospects and major league ready talent. Abreu, Frazier and Cabrera could bring a good prospect and another high ceiling low minor league prospect.

Trading those four players could yield about a dozen new, young players. Adding to the strength of the organization, minor league starting pitching, the White Sox do have the building blocks to make a rebuild work.

NEW DIRECTION?

White Sox GM Rick Hahn said:

“We’ve always been focused on putting ourselves in the best position to win,” Hahn said. “At the same time, I think we’re veering away from the standpoint of looking for stopgaps. A lot of what we did in the last few years had been trying to enhance the short-term potential of the club to put ourselves in a position to win immediately. I feel the approach at this point is focusing on longer-term benefits. It doesn’t mean we won’t necessarily be in a good position in 2017. It means that our targets and whatever we’re hoping to accomplish have a little more longer-term fits in nature.”

The White Sox have been mired in a "win now" re-tooling of their roster since the 2005 championship. The club has signed or traded for veterans to try to get over the hump to win the AL Central and make it deep in the playoffs. But the Tigers, Royals and now the Indians have blocked their path. But now the Tigers are ready for a fire sale and the Royals are regrouping, the White Sox have to make a major decision: stay the course or rebuild the organization?

Critics think the Sox must follow the Cub rebuild plan. Tear it all down. Trade valuable assets like Sale, Quintana, Frazier, Eaton or Abreu to stockpile young, athletic talent.

Fans and ownership still believe the Sox are just one or two players away from a division title.

The problem with the White Sox has been that the team has not drafted well position players. And the team has not spent a lot of money on international free agents. As a result, the farm system has been weak for a long time.

There are two ways to remedy the situation: hire better scouts and development coaches to boost the talent in the minors or trade for quality prospects from other teams.

If you read between the lines, it appears that Hahn is still playing a middle approach. When he says he will look for longer-term benefits, it may mean that trade targets may not be rental players but players under 2 or 3 year deals. Or that prospects will be low minor leaguers under team control for six years. It also means that the White Sox may plan to hold on to their ten quality minor league pitching prospects.

And it also could mean that the team will not pour any more money on free agents this winter. It will let the roster weed itself out by contract expiration.

My guess is the White Sox will continue to on the same path of trying to field a veteran, competitive club with a short term goal of winning now.

DYSFUNCTIONAL ORGANIZATION

Robin Ventura is not going to manage the White Sox in 2017.

Some may say good riddance. Others may still question the organization which put Ventura, who never managed at any level, in charge of a major league team.

Under Ventura’s leadership, the White Sox went 375-434 (.463) which included a second-place finish in 2012 followed by a fifth-place finish and three fourth-place finishes. The White Sox have now gone eight seasons without making the postseason.

Ricky Renteria, the current bench coach, is presumed to be promoted to manager. He was the short term Cub manager until the Cubs swooped in on Joe Maddon.

Renteria had been a coach in the Padres’ organization since 2003 and was promoted to bench coach in 2011. He left after the 2013 season. Renteria has one year of managing under his belt, leading the Cubs to a 73-89 fifth-place finish in 2014.

The first issue with the Renteria promotion is that it does not change the White Sox culture or structure. Renteria is like Ventura, not a guy will a dynamic personality. The coaching staff will remain pretty much the same - - - which may not motivate the players to play better.

The second issue is that the management of the Sox does not change. There is a conflict between chairman Reinsdorf's desires, President Kenny Williams retooling philosophy and GM Rick Hahn want to rebuild. Ownership wants to win now. The press thought the White Sox "won" the last two off-seasons with their roster moves, but the players woefully underperformed.

Until the management gets on the same page, the team will continue to struggle.

The third issue is why not have a full managerial search? Renteria may be a nice buy, speaks Spanish to Latin players, and a baseball lifer. But is he the right person for this job?  In San Diego, his forte was helping develop young players. The White Sox roster is besieged with veterans.

The White Sox strength is that the minor league system is filled with quality pitchers. The weakness of the White Sox is that the minor league system is devoid of hitting talent and positional players. This leads to a muddy middle of the road team in a weak division.

THE WHITE SOX PLAN

For the past week, White Sox management has been reported in disarray on the direction of the team. Will the team sell off parts like Sale, Quintana or Abreu in order to do a complete rebuild of the minor league system? Will Ventura, Hahn or Williams remain part of the management? Will managing partner for the owners, Reinsdorf, even allow a total tear down?

The White Sox just netted $82 million for naming rights for a stadium which the team does not own. There is plenty of extra cash coming into the Sox operations. The question is what to do?

Sox fans look to the North Side and see the Cubs on the verge of a historic World Series run with young talent that is getting better each week. Sox fans envy the Cubs rebuild success. But die hard South Siders can still point to the 2005 WS flag while the Cubs dream is still in hope mode.

But the Sox have done nothing special since their championship season. As everyone is aware, there is no guarantee that any team, no matter how good on paper or how many wins in the regular season, can get a championship or sustain a championship caliber team year to year.

The White Sox front office has stressed this week that this off-season "everyone will be on the same page."  The Sox claim to have a plan. It is an omen that that the Sox just traded catcher Navarro to the Blue Jays for a promising AA left handed relief pitcher?  The White Sox GM Hahn will not say what the team's real direction will be for 2017.

Frustrated sports thinkers believe the Sox have to blow up the team and start from scratch. But that begs another question: do you trust the people currently in charge to rebuild a team?  Granted, the White Sox have been really good at drafting and developing pitching talent. Nine of their top 20 prospects are quality pitchers. It is that the team scouting department cannot draft and develop consistent position players. And management trades and free agent signings have looked good on paper, but in the past two season the team has woefully underperformed their potential.

So what is the real solution for the White Sox woes?

Hire Theo Epstein.

Epstein still does not have a contract extension from the Cubs. Which is highly unusual considering the success the Cubs have had the past two seasons. It appears that Epstein wants to become the ultimate management free agent - - - with a track record to command the most money for a baseball executive and possibly and equity stake in a team.

Epstein has been running the Cubs baseball operations with one hand tied behind his back since the "business side" of the operation is controlled by Crane Kenney and Tom Ricketts. Epstein would prefer to run the entire show.

But in order to do that with the White Sox, Reinsdorf will have to fire Ventura, Hahn and Williams. Reinsdorf is known to be very loyal to his managers. He promoted Williams from GM to President instead of firing him. Can Reinsdorf purge his loyal employees to try to win another championship?

He may not have any choice. The stealing of Epstein from the Cubs would be a PR boom for Sox nation. It would energize the fan base and increase ticket sales. It would be poking a stick in the eye of Cub ownership. Reinsdorf, who is all business, would see the value in hiring Epstein away from his city rival.

But what are the odds that this could happen? With no movement in the Cubs-Epstein contract talks for more than a year, I would say it could be 50-50.  The other big market teams have new management in place (Dodgers, Red Sox).

If the White Sox really want to shake up Chicago baseball this off-season, ownership needs to be bold.

RECORD BAD LUCK

Oh, the White Sox.

On paper, the last two years were supposed to be good.

In reality, not so much.

The team has probably set a unique and bitter record this season.

Charlie Tilson was helped off the field by manager Robin Ventura and trainer Herm Schneider after Tilson, making his debut after a trade with the Cardinals, injured his hamstring and knee on an outfield play.

Tilson was the fourth Sox player injured in the White Sox debut game. Catcher Kevan Smith had to be scratched before a game in Toronto in April when he got hurt warming up.  Left fielder Jason Coats cut his lip and was dazed colliding with center fielder J.B. Shuck on June 4 in Detroit.  Matt Davidson fractured his right foot running the bases against the Twins June 30 at U.S. Cellular Field.

Four players hurt in their first games.

Not a great beginning.

During every season, a team needs some luck in order to win. Some teams seem to have a dark cloud over them or bad luck chases them down.

The White Sox have had a strange year. First, the spring training blow up of LaRoche's son being the team mascot. Second, Chris Sale butchering throw back uniforms in a tantrum. Now, four young players going on the DL during their debuts.

The White Sox need to get younger in the field. The free agent veterans acquired in the past three seasons have not panned out this year. Adding speedy Tilson in center field for the injured Austin Jackson was supposed to be the final spark to right the season. Instead, it flamed out.

Tilson was the only trade deadline move the team made. There were inquiries about Sale and Jose Quintana, but the Sox wanted a ransom for either starting pitcher. Besides, what good players do the White Sox have to build a competitive team around besides Sale and Quintana?