During last night's telecast, Len Kasper made the observation that when the Cubs have won this year, their run total averages to 7.26. When the Cubs have lost this year, the run total averages only 2.21.
A five run differential between wins and losses means that the Cubs competitive imbalance is widening. To put it another way, a pitcher today is recognized with a "quality start" if he pitches 6 innings and gives up 3 runs. I think that definition is too high because that means the pitcher has a 4.50 ERA. A better stat would be 2 runs over 6 innings (3.00 ERA), or 3 runs over 7 innings (3.86 ERA).
When the Cubs win, the offense produces 42 percent more scoring than a 3.00 ERA quality start.
When the Cubs lose, the offense produces 26 percent less scoring than a 3.00 ERA quality start.
That is a consistency range of plus/minus 68 percent. Or, the gulf between the "feast or famine" play of the Cubs roster.
One would hope that a professional team would have some sort of zen balance to hitting and scoring runs. One would think that a consistent and competitive team would have a plus or minus of a couple of runs per victory or loss. The Cubs appear to have doubled that anticipated run spread.
There is no such thing as finite number of hits in a player's swing. When a player gets three hits one game, he can get three hits the next game. Perhaps, a hot hitter is overconfident and tries to make single contact into home runs (a formula for failure). Or, MLB advanced scouting is so good now that pitching reports on how to get out hitters is communicated in real time. It is hard to watch a player hit like Babe Ruth in game one of a series, then look like a hapless T-baller in game two. Now, managers will tell you that over the long season, a player will always revert to "the back of his baseball card." But hitting gurus like Charlie Lau preached that if one has a consistent swing mechanics (he believed in a flat plane approach that Frank Thomas adopted successfully for his Hall of Fame career), the player will have consistent results.
If you look at the Cub hitters, there is no consistent hitting philosophy on display. You have a lot of free swingers like Castro and Lake, a couple of crouch guys like Schierholtz and a couple of tall, quiet hitters like Rizzo. All those types have different swing planes and different strike zone coverages as a result. Even though the front office has preached teaching "the Cubs Way," it certainly has not been taught or adopted at the major league level.
