September 11, 2014

BIG DREAMS

Max Scherzer turned down 6 years/$144 million from the Tigers. He will hit the free agent market setting the bar near $160 million or $26.7 million per season.

Jon Lester, who will be 32, will ask for the same big money contract.

Multiple reports indicate that the Cubs are going strong to sign Lester in the off-season.

There is an old Boston connection at play, so the reports say. But baseball is a business, and players and their agents want two things: money and post-season money.

The Cubs 2015 payroll currently stands at an expansion team level of around $45 million. Clearly, everyone postulates, the Cubs have a boatload of money to spend to acquire ace pitching the team so dearly needs.  Except, no one knows outside the organization if the $100 million payrolls are truth or a myth. From the evidence, it appears more likely myth than reality.

The Cubs go into 2015 with no local TV revenue for a large portion of the television rights package. Attendance, especially no-shows, has become a real problem. Attendance is down and no-shows are going up. The Cubs raising ticket prices for the best seats is sure to tick off some long suffering fans who paid premium prices for minor league ball for five years. The Cubs are pushing the load to see where the camel's back (fans) is broken.

The big dreams of the new, young, fun players may turn to an awakening of reality. The big guns have cooled as we go into late September. There is no guarantee that they will perform at a high level in 2015.

So that is why the front office would like to make a splash with a Lester signing. It would give the team a confidence boost that yes, the team really wants to win.

But the money for Lester is going to be diverted to Ricketts construction plans, now several years in arrears. In any construction project, delays mean cost overruns. There are still litigation uncertainty and neighborhood complaints. The business side is not ready to give the baseball side the financial checkbook to buy the expensive pieces of the competitive puzzle.

The team may say they are "all in" for bidding on Lester, but the Cubs stack is not going to match up with the Yankees, Red Sox, Angels, Rangers, Dodgers, Tigers or Mariners.  Most likely it plays out like the Tanaka story from last spring.

Which leaves the Cubs with a patchwork starting rotation, and a batting order loaded with inconsistent young players.