September 4, 2014

OUT OF POSITIONS

I don't really know why the Cubs continue down the Henry-Quade spectrum of playing second basemen all over the ball yard. Logan Watkins playing right field? Really?  He plays well defensively at second. Alcantara in center? He is still learning the position on the fly which is very hard, since Jimmy Piersall said repeatedly that CF is the hardest outfield position to play. Baez is learning second, and is doing well, but when he fills in for Castro at short, Baez is much better SS than Castro.

I know the concept that managers and general managers like: versatility. If you can play more than one position, then the team has more options (platoons, double switches, etc.). But all those utility players, in general, have to be utility players because they can't hold down one position as a true starter. A team filled with utility players is just a replacement level team in training.

So it is a little surprising that Kyle Schwarber is being pegged as a catching prospect. In 72 pro games, he hit .344, 18 HR, 53 RBI and 1.061 OPS. He should start in Class AA in 2015, with a possible promotion to Iowa mid season if he continues to hit well.

Schwarber's draft scouting report showed that he was probably the best fundamental college hitter, but he did not have the defensive skill set (and body type) to be a catcher. Most organizations felt he was destined to play left field.

The same is actually the chord on third baseman Kris Bryant. His size and range questions had him moving his bat to left field. But Bryant has told the Cubs that he wants to continue to play third base. In 138 pro games, Bryant hit .325, 43 HR, 110 RBI and 1.098 OPS.

One takeaway from the success of both Schwarber and Bryant is that despite the perceived defensive short comings, both players are comfortable playing their current positions. And if they are comfortable on defense, then they have less to worry about at the plate.

It is in the Cubs best interest to accommodate them because the team has no alternative players who can put up .300 BA, 30 HR, 90 RBI production at catcher or third base.

You let them come to spring training and win their starting spots. If the next crop of prospects, like Addison Reed, are going to be the shortstop of the future, then Castro needs to move to another position or be traded to another team. That's how the system has worked for a century.

But by tagging Schwarber and Bryant as left fielders, you just move the position iceberg to the outfield but not solve the problem of getting the best hitters in the daily line up. Barring injuries, Jorge Soler is going to play right. Schwarber or Bryant do not have the speed to play center.

Here is the current "push" chart of prospects depth chart:

3B: Valbuena - - - -> Bryant
SS: Castro - - - > Russell
2B: Baez
1B: Rizzo
C: Castillo - - - > Schwarber
LF: Coghlan - - - > Castro?
CF: Alcantara - - - > Almora
RF: Soler

Valbuena, Coghlan, Watkins and Alcantara fall to their roles as utility players.

But this push chart also shows that despite the huzzah of a prospect pipeline, the Cubs organization is still very thin. But pundits believe that the team having so many similar good prospects is a "good problem" to have. The Cubs may have fallen in love with their collection of prospects, and over-value their talent level so as to freeze themselves out of key veteran trades in the future.