September 30, 2014

BOTTOM OUT

The Cubs over-promoted Wrigley's 100th anniversary to ironically use the season as the platform to totally change the ball park. The result of the special giveaways was that the Cubs stated attendance grew 9,000 from last year's total. Without the extra promotions, the Cubs would not have had a rebound in the attendance slip from 2008.

As fans were leaving Wrigley after the last home game, some felt that the new improvements would be good for the team and their fan experience. However, there was an equal number who were concerned about Wrigley no longer being Wrigley Field of the past 100 years.

Proponents believe that fans will get used to the new electronic video screens like they did when the lights were put in 26 years ago. But adding night games did not alter the landmarked bleachers and views.

Fans left the last home game with another piece of the puzzle looking brighter: the Cubs finished with a 41-40 home record. One could assume that the team may have bottomed out.

But there is still a large disconnect between the team, the fans and how the roster is being created through this period of dramatic change.  All the new signage will have a dramatic effect on the wind conditions inside Wrigley Field. Swirling winds will make it more difficult for Cub outfielders, many who will be playing not their natural positions. In addition, the blueprints show that the bullpen areas will be removed for additional seating, which means that the foul ground will be smaller. The lack of foul territory will hurt pitchers as foul pop outs will turn into souvenirs.

The Cubs front office is building a club which will probably not work well in the New Wrigley Field configuration. The team has depth in young sluggers, but it the large video boards are going to block the winds from blowing out, home run power is going to diminish - - - and you have a line up of free swinging strike out kings. Also, the Cubs lack pitching depth, so the removal of foul territory is going to tax their pitchers over the long season.

And then there is the unknown fan reaction to the improvements. The team assumes that fans will return in droves. One fan interviewed after the game remarked that normally after major improvements, teams increase ticket prices. With the Cubs near the top of the cost-to-attend-games chart, there are many fans leery of spending more money just to see a video replay. The only thing that will bring the casual fan back would be a winning team, but the Cubs cannot guarantee that any of their young stars will actually become stars (or clones of Junior Lake, Corey Patterson, Felix Pie, etc.) The large construction costs will come from the Cubs payroll. The Cubs are not set up to play big market free agent buyers until they can get a new television deal in 2020.

No one wants to talk about it, but there is a good chance that despite all of the moves Ricketts, Kenney, Epstein and Hoyer have done, that both the construction of the New Wrigley and the future Cubs will fail. What if fans look at the New Wrigley as "not special" but just another commercialized ball yard. If so, then the team will have to cater to "fair weather fans" who won't come to games unless there is a winning product on the field. (This is the White Sox situation). So one cannot say that the Cubs have bottomed out and are now on the golden path to success.