October 14, 2014

5 IN 3

Theo Epstein remarked that the front office has compressed five years of work into the last three seasons. He was mainly talking about rebuilding the Cubs minor league system. He continues to believe, or at least publicly says, that the Cubs will be competitive in 2015.

But as he said "We are ready to compete,"  he told season ticket holders that "progress is not linear" and that they wouldn't "sell out" the future just to make 2015 "the year."

This is the "I told you so" point when the Cubs don't make a big free agent splash prior to spring training. And he most likely made mention of this because the Cubs won't be active this winter, to the level of the fan base expectations.

There are many other clubs farther along in competitive mode who may truly believe that they are just one or two players away from a post-season run. Even the Brewers, Reds and Pirates are in that win-now mode. The Cubs current payroll sits well below those three clubs, but there are the slumbering big market giants ready to get back into the game - - - the Red Sox and Yankees are the spending monsters ready to pounce this off-season. Even the teams that were a hair length away from moving on in the playoffs, the Dodgers, Angels, will have money to spend to get to the next level.

So Epstein's annual take of when the Cubs will turn things around is another 15 month or so extension. This pushes off the final diagnosis of the rebuild plan to 2016.

Only two players have shown lasting consistency: Castro and Rizzo. Both had bounce back years which means they have learned their profession: the need to adapt in order to succeed.

The rest of the new portion of the roster is unproven. Baez, Alcantara, Lake, Soler, Watkins, Arrieta and Hendricks are still unproven over an entire season. The rest of the major league roster is journeymen. Epstein may find solace that his team is on the cusp of doing something major. But that major move may be more wins, but it is just as likely to be more losses. Rookies and sophomore slumps are too common in baseball. 2015 looks to be a classic shakedown cruise.