Despite the growing hysteria that the Cubs are going to spend millions to get Joe Maddon, and hundreds of millions to sign Jon Lester and/or James Shields, the off-season motto should be "get a hold of yourselves."
Yes, the Cubs will search for more pitching during the winter, but any payroll flexibility is caused by big contracts falling off the books and as Wittenmyer reported, a
$20 million in savings by baseball ops from its 2014 budget.
One has to analyze this closely to find the reality in the Cubs finances.
The Cubs baseball operations has had a "hard" budget, meaning that it was not allowed to exceed a gross number. As a result, the Cubs baseball operations were squeezed in saving as much money today to try to spend tomorrow.
The dead money coming off the books in 2015 is only $14.2 million. If this is considered the "savings" from the 2014 budget, then that is the additional money available to spend. Or, if you are thinking Epstein did save another $20 million in operational costs, then the Cubs could spend $34.2 million more in 2015.
The base line number for the Cubs payroll in 2015 is currently stands $31.6 million. If one adds in the arbitration costs to retain players, the Cubs payroll may reach $60 million. But that is not guaranteed.
At the end of 2013, the Cubs promised that its payroll would increase $20-35 million. It went from $107 million down to $93 million, which was $21.5 million below the average major league payroll as compiled by Baseball Prospectus. The Cubs payroll numbers have dropped every year in Ricketts tenure. It probably could drop more because Ricketts construction costs for the Wrigley renovations and the real estate ventures outside the ball park are now in full swing.
One has to analyze this closely to find the reality in the Cubs finances.
The Cubs baseball operations has had a "hard" budget, meaning that it was not allowed to exceed a gross number. As a result, the Cubs baseball operations were squeezed in saving as much money today to try to spend tomorrow.
The dead money coming off the books in 2015 is only $14.2 million. If this is considered the "savings" from the 2014 budget, then that is the additional money available to spend. Or, if you are thinking Epstein did save another $20 million in operational costs, then the Cubs could spend $34.2 million more in 2015.
The base line number for the Cubs payroll in 2015 is currently stands $31.6 million. If one adds in the arbitration costs to retain players, the Cubs payroll may reach $60 million. But that is not guaranteed.
At the end of 2013, the Cubs promised that its payroll would increase $20-35 million. It went from $107 million down to $93 million, which was $21.5 million below the average major league payroll as compiled by Baseball Prospectus. The Cubs payroll numbers have dropped every year in Ricketts tenure. It probably could drop more because Ricketts construction costs for the Wrigley renovations and the real estate ventures outside the ball park are now in full swing.
“Eventually it’ll mean some
more revenue, but the big mechanism by which we’ll realize significantly
more revenue is really the TV deal,” Epstein said. “And the Wrigley
improvements will help move the needle. But the paradigm shifter is
really the TV deal.”
Another reason a new wave of spending is not going to happen soon is that the Cubs see the youngsters being "competitive" in 2015. ‘‘So we’re not going to sell out to win in 2015,’’ Epstein said.
Even if the Cubs have $20 million to spend, that will still mean that the Cubs 2015 payroll will only be $80 million, another drop of $13 million in player contracts year over year. And $20 million is not going to pay for one year for an elite pitching prospect. It may not even be enough for an all-star catcher, when this year's qualifying offer is $15.3 million.
And then, for those who think Maddon is the man, his $5 million plus annual salary has to come out of the same hard baseball budget. So the real reality check for fans is that the Cubs will continue their second tier signings of pitchers needing a change of scenery or coming off TJ surgery in the hopes of catching more lightning in a bottle like with Scott Feldman or Jason Hammel.
Another reason a new wave of spending is not going to happen soon is that the Cubs see the youngsters being "competitive" in 2015. ‘‘So we’re not going to sell out to win in 2015,’’ Epstein said.
Even if the Cubs have $20 million to spend, that will still mean that the Cubs 2015 payroll will only be $80 million, another drop of $13 million in player contracts year over year. And $20 million is not going to pay for one year for an elite pitching prospect. It may not even be enough for an all-star catcher, when this year's qualifying offer is $15.3 million.
And then, for those who think Maddon is the man, his $5 million plus annual salary has to come out of the same hard baseball budget. So the real reality check for fans is that the Cubs will continue their second tier signings of pitchers needing a change of scenery or coming off TJ surgery in the hopes of catching more lightning in a bottle like with Scott Feldman or Jason Hammel.
