In 2014, the Cubs as a team, struck out 24.2 percent of the time at plate.
It is a staggering total (1477 Ks).
And all the new prospects, from Baez to Soler, are high torque home run or miss batters.
If a team strikes out 24.2 percent of their at-bats, that means in a game, the Cubs are not putting the ball into play 6.5 times per game (or 7 ABs). With the overall fielding averages around .985 percent, the Cubs are losing a base runner 0.15 percent of the time when their hitters fail to put a ball into play.
It may not sound like much. But that is a full base runner per game eliminated from any chance of scoring. That is 162 base runners lost. Depending on the situation, with no outs a runner on first scores 43 percent of the time, but with 2 outs, only 6.2 percent of the time. Under this opponent error rate view, the Cubs would be losing at least 0.24 runs per game.
If one goes by an old rule of thumb that a team should be able to score a run per every three hits, the Cubs are losing 0.58 runs per game (7 ABs/4) based on team BA of .250.
In 2014, the Cubs scored 614 runs (12th in NL). The Cubs pitchers allowed 707 runs (13th in the NL). If the Cubs strike outs cost the team 0.58 runs/game, over a full season that costs the Cubs potentially 94 runs. Add that to the total runs, gives the Cubs 708 runs scored - - - even with runs allowed (which some would say a .500 club). 708 runs scored would put the Cubs third in the NL after Colorado and the Dodgers.
The basic rule of thumb is to win, you need to outscore your opponent. But if a team has high strike out totals, then you are giving your opponent a large run advantage of a half a run a game.
