A NIGHT OF SOLER POWER

When Jorge Soler hit his first two home runs against Cincinnati, one thing was readily apparent: Soler was no longer over-torquing his back swing.  He is big and strong enough to make a normal short stride swing to clear the fences.

This is in stark contrast to last season's call up where Soler (as well as Javy Baez, and then Starlin Castro falling into the habit) of overswinging to generate 16 inch softball hitter power.

Soler has made an adjustment, something hitting coach John Mallee tried with Baez.

Mallee, 45, begins his fifth season as a major league hitting coach, his first with the Cubs. He previously served as a big league hitting coach with the Marlins (2010-11) and Astros (2013-14). Overall, Mallee has 19 seasons of experience in pro baseball. Prior to moving to the big leagues, he spent eight-plus seasons as the Marlins minor league hitting instructor. A Chicago native, Mallee also served as a minor league hitting coach within the Brewers and Expos organizations starting in 1996. He spent two seasons as an infielder in the Phillies system from 1991-92.

In spring, Mallee was trying to get Baez to adjust his swing, especially during an at-bat. He wanted Baez to shorten his swing, "to allow him to stay in the hitting zone longer," as well as closing the huge holes in a long, loopy swing. Baez did make those adjustments in batting practice, but admitted that during games he would go back to his old ways. His old ways got him a surprising demotion to Iowa.

And maybe that demotion was a wake up call to the young players to listen to their coaches.

Joe Maddon has a very laid back approach to dealing with his players. He lets them prepare for games in their own ways and routines. He will only speak to them when he needs to speak to them. Maddon is more a funny uncle motivator than a hands-on teacher. He is trying to keep his team loose and relaxed even though the season started with a continuation of bad fundamentals and lack of plate discipline. 

Confidence is something that has to be turned on inside a person's head. Success is the fuel for self-confidence. Being confident at the plate means a batter will get more pitches and then better pitches to hit.

If Mallee has converted Soler into a more standard hitting posture and mechanics, that bodes well for the team because Soler needs to be a confident and consistent presence in the middle of the order.

THE WINDY QUESTION

An unreported story in regard to the New Wrigley Field is the affect the new signage and scoreboards will have on the wind patterns during games.

Prior to construction, it was clear that when the wind was blowing in (northerly), balls hit into the outfield were held up, pushed back and down. When the wind was blowing out to center (south-southwesterly), balls would carry especially in the power alley of LF.

I have not seen any published study about the effects of the new scoreboards will have at Wrigley. It is an important factor in considering on this team is being constructed (with young power hitters).

I am not an aerodynamic engineer, and I realize the the dimensions, angles, and variables in wind speeds can led to differential results, but using general urban wind patterns on structures, I postulated the following diagram:

One would think that if the wind was blowing into Wrigley, the large new scoreboards would "block" the prevailing wind and make it easier to hit homers in the power alleys. Except, the opposite is apparently true as the winds climb up the back of the structure then dive over the top to create a drag or low pressure area (like a air foil). Therefore, there may be actually more down force coming off the scoreboards than in a regular breeze.

Then, one would think that if the wind was blowing out of Wrigley, the large new scoreboards would have no effect on home runs. In the past, the center field scoreboard had little difference in air patterns blowing out since it is set back away from the 410 mark of the outfield wall. But from the air flow charts, air hitting a solid object will drop towards the ground. Since the new scoreboards are so close to the outfield walls, they could take the winds blowing out downward near the outfield wall (in effect increasing the distance for a home run to travel to clear the wall).

Now some may say that the space between the signs and scoreboards could create a canyon effect when the winds are blowing out of Wrigley (at some point increasing the air flow to the path of least resistance.) Whether that is true will have to been observed this year. Hitters could have to then thread a needle to find the super power alleys.

Besides affecting hitters, the down draft zones could cause problems with outfielders trying to judge hard hit fly balls. Even before the renovations, many players have publicly said that Wrigley Field outfield is a challenge to play due to the wind patterns and lack of safe foul territory. Adding another element of new wind circulation and down draft patterns could complicate defenses.

After writing this post, the Chicago Tribune posted a new graphic to help fans understand how "big" is the new jumbotron.

As I have said before, fans are going to be shocked at the size of the new scoreboards and the change in character of Wrigley Field.

HOME RUN POWER

Now that the 2012 Cubs roster is pretty much set, there is a hue and cry about how bad the offense will be, especially in the deficiency of home run power.  There are only two batters with a good probability of hitting 20 or more home runs this season: Soriano and LaHair. There are only two batters with a good probability of hitting 15 home runs: Soto and Castro.

How does a lack of a strong home run hitter impact on the Cubs overall record? Chicks did the long ball, but it is necessary in order to win?

From 1982 through 2011, the answer is a surprising no.

Year    HR Leader    Team HR    HR Leader %    Team Wins
1982    22                     102         0.21568627451    73
1983    24                     140         0.17142857143    71
1984    25                     136         0.18382352941    96
1985    26                     150         0.17333333333    77
1986    21                     155         0.13548387097    70
1987    49                     209         0.23444976077    76
1988    24                     113         0.21238938053    77
1989    30                     124         0.24193548387    93
1990    40                     136         0.29411764706    77
1991    31                     159         0.19496855346    77
1992    26                     104         0.25                      78
1993    33                     161         0.2049689441      84
1994    25                     109         0.22935779817    49
1995    36                     158         0.22784810127    73
1996    40                     175         0.22857142857    76
1997    36                     127         0.28346456693    68
1998    66                     212         0.31132075472    90
1999    63                     189         0.33333333333    67
2000    50                     183         0.27322404372    65
2001    64                     194         0.32989690722    88
2002    49                     200         0.245                    67
2003    40                     172         0.23255813953    88
2004    39                     235         0.16595744681    89
2005    46                     194         0.23711340206    79
2006    38                     166         0.22891566265    66
2007    33                     151         0.21854304636    85
2008    29                     184         0.15760869565    97
2009    35                     161         0.21739130435    83
2010    25                     149         0.1677852349      75
2011    28                     148         0.18918918919    71

           1093                4796         0.22789824854

The lowest Team HR year was 1982 in this study. The Cubs won 73 games. The HR leader hit 21.57% of the team homers. One would assume that if you hit more home runs, you'd get more wins. The highest team HR year is 2004 with 235. The Cubs won 89 games, which is not the most during this time period. Four teams had more wins: 2008 (97 with 184 HR), 2004 (96 with 136 HR), 1989 (93 with 124 HR) and 1998 (90 with 212 HR).  During the peak home run era (1998-2004), the Cubs averaged only 79 wins.

On average, the Cubs leading home run hitter hit 22.79% of the teams round trippers. Sammy Sosa's 33.33% average in 1999 was the highest in this period, but the Cubs only won 67 games that season. Even when the batting order was more "balanced," with the top home run leader was at only 13.55% of the team total in 1986, the Cubs won only 70 games.

So there is no statistical link between having a big home run hitter(s) in the line up and number of team victories.