Now that the 2012 Cubs roster is pretty much set, there is a hue and cry about how bad the offense will be, especially in the deficiency of home run power. There are only two batters with a good probability of hitting 20 or more home runs this season: Soriano and LaHair. There are only two batters with a good probability of hitting 15 home runs: Soto and Castro.
How does a lack of a strong home run hitter impact on the Cubs overall record? Chicks did the long ball, but it is necessary in order to win?
From 1982 through 2011, the answer is a surprising no.
Year HR Leader Team HR HR Leader % Team Wins
1982 22 102 0.21568627451 73
1983 24 140 0.17142857143 71
1984 25 136 0.18382352941 96
1985 26 150 0.17333333333 77
1986 21 155 0.13548387097 70
1987 49 209 0.23444976077 76
1988 24 113 0.21238938053 77
1989 30 124 0.24193548387 93
1990 40 136 0.29411764706 77
1991 31 159 0.19496855346 77
1992 26 104 0.25 78
1993 33 161 0.2049689441 84
1994 25 109 0.22935779817 49
1995 36 158 0.22784810127 73
1996 40 175 0.22857142857 76
1997 36 127 0.28346456693 68
1998 66 212 0.31132075472 90
1999 63 189 0.33333333333 67
2000 50 183 0.27322404372 65
2001 64 194 0.32989690722 88
2002 49 200 0.245 67
2003 40 172 0.23255813953 88
2004 39 235 0.16595744681 89
2005 46 194 0.23711340206 79
2006 38 166 0.22891566265 66
2007 33 151 0.21854304636 85
2008 29 184 0.15760869565 97
2009 35 161 0.21739130435 83
2010 25 149 0.1677852349 75
2011 28 148 0.18918918919 71
1093 4796 0.22789824854
The lowest Team HR year was 1982 in this study. The Cubs won 73 games. The HR leader hit 21.57% of the team homers. One would assume that if you hit more home runs, you'd get more wins. The highest team HR year is 2004 with 235. The Cubs won 89 games, which is not the most during this time period. Four teams had more wins: 2008 (97 with 184 HR), 2004 (96 with 136 HR), 1989 (93 with 124 HR) and 1998 (90 with 212 HR). During the peak home run era (1998-2004), the Cubs averaged only 79 wins.
On average, the Cubs leading home run hitter hit 22.79% of the teams round trippers. Sammy Sosa's 33.33% average in 1999 was the highest in this period, but the Cubs only won 67 games that season. Even when the batting order was more "balanced," with the top home run leader was at only 13.55% of the team total in 1986, the Cubs won only 70 games.
So there is no statistical link between having a big home run hitter(s) in the line up and number of team victories.
