Major league general managers have this point of personal pride of not having players test their judgment or authority by going to a salary arbitration hearing. Former Cubs GM Jim Hendry was boastful about his signing record, until Ryan Theriot refused his offer and went to arbitration (and lost). Within the year, Theriot was traded by the Cubs, which some may not see as a "cause and effect" move while others will say the message was pretty clear. Hendry demanded loyalty.
New Cubs GM Theo Epstein has a record of never having a player go to an arbitration hearing. The Cubs had seven eligible players. The Cubs settled six of the seven before the deadline to submit salary figures. Starting pitcher Matt Garza was the lone Cub hold-out. Garza had been the center of attention in trade talks to the Tigers and Yankees. Then the Yankees made a blockbuster prospect deal with the Mariners to find a young stud starter, and then the Tigers shifted emphasis to acquiring a replacement bat for injured DH Victor Martinez. Garza, 28, is the Cubs #1 starter by a wide margin. And Garza and his agent expect to be paid like a top tier starter.
Which brings into play the illogical disconnect and inconsistency of arbitration demands and negotiated salaries. In the arbitration procedure, the player submits a sum for a one year deal, and the team submits its figure. The arbitrator hears evidence from both sides then picks which number is the best fit for based on that evidence. It is either the player's or the owner's number that wins out. It is the roll of the loaded dice. However, both sides can settle the case before an award is decided.
The baseball community was that Garza would get between $8 to $9 million in an arbitration. The consensus was $8.75 million. Garza made $5.95 million last season.
Garza has submitted a figure of $12.5 million, which is a 111.9 percent raise from 2011. The Cubs submitted a figure of $7.95 million, which is a 33.9 percent raise from 2011. No one will be sponsoring a tag day for Garza if he loses the arbitration, but the difference between the two valuations is quite wide. If the consensus is the fair market valuation for Garza, it is more probable he would not win the arbitration. However, veteran 4th starters commanded more than $10 million in free agency this off season.
By comparison, Epstein and Hoyer re-signed the other arbitration players (arbitration year) (consensus award amount) in this fashion:
* Jeff Baker (3rd year): $1.4m; signed for $1.375m (17% raise)
* Blake DeWitt (1st year): $1.2m; signed for $1.1m (139% raise)
* Matt Garza (3rd year): $8.7m NO DEAL
* Geovany Soto (2nd year): $4m; signed for $4.3m (43.33% raise)
* Ian Stewart (2nd year): $2.3m; signed for $2.237 (0.4% raise)
* Chris Volstad (1st year): $2.7m; signed for $2.655m (497% raise)
* Randy Wells (1st year): $2.2m signed for $2.705m (470% raise)
In the real world, none of these players would deserve a raise based upon their 2011 performance. But this is baseball, a fantasy league within itself.
If you use the measure how management values its employees by how BIG a raise they grant, then by that measure, Epstein and Hoyer value Volstad, Wells and DeWitt more than Garza. The Cubs pretty much hit consensus marks on all their arbitration players except Wells, for whom they will pay 23% more than expected for a pitcher that may not even be the team's fifth starter (current rotation projection is Garza, Maholm, Dempster, T. Wood and Volstad). Of course, that changes if Garza is traded, which is now more likely based upon the gulf between the two arbitration figures. If Garza wins the arbitration, it makes him harder to trade.
