Cubs problem child, Carlos Zambrano, was rewarded for his bad behavior because he got his wish, to join fellow off-center manager Ozzie Guillen in Miami. The Cubs have traded Zambrano and $15 million in cash (to offset the $18 million owed Z in 2012) in exchange for Marlins starter Chris Volstad. The deal is still subject to league approval.
Volstad is a marginal fifth starter. Zambrano was traded at his low value point, to the only team with any tangible interest in him. Jim Hendry suspended Z after he bolted the locker room last year (and that matter is still pending with the league). Of the three "can't miss" starters the Cubs had (Wood, Prior and Zambrano), only Z made it consistently to the mound to actually pitch. He won 125 games (1 no hitter) and a career ERA of 3.60.
Volstad, a first-round draft pick in 2005, finished 5-13 with a 4.89 ERA last season after a 12-9 showing the year before. The 230-pounder made $445,000 last season. Tribune writer Dave Van Dyke states he could get up to $2 million this year in arbitration. That figure seems high for a player with bad stats in 2011 (and in essence the player's first "contract" season - - - where performance could land a big payday in arbitration. ) However, Volstad is really costing the Cubs $15 million plus his salary, or the highest paid 5th starter in the majors). The Cubs control his rights through 2014 which is the key element in most of Epstein and Hoyer's roster moves so far this off-season.
Zambrano was just 9-7 with a 4.82 ERA in 24 games last season, missing the last two months when the Cubs placed him on the restricted list for bad behavior. He goes to a team that has suddenly spent money on big free agents (Reyes, Buerhle) and now expect to contend in the NL East.
The trade gets rid of a trouble maker, but leaves the Cubs starting rotation in shambles. As it stands now, the Cubs starting rotation is (2011 stats):
1. Garza, 10-10, 3.32 ERA, 1.258 WHIP, 198 IP
2. Dempster, 10-14, 4.41 ERA, 1.450 WHIP, 202.1 IP
3. T. Wood, 6-6, 4.84 ERA, 1.289 WHIP, 106 IP
4. Sonnanstine, 0-2, 5.55 ERA, 1.458 WHIP, 35.2 IP (minors 3-6, 4.82 ERA, 1.411 WHIP, 56 IP)
5. Volstad, 5-13, 4.89 ERA, 1.425 WHIP, 165.2 IP
A staff that has a combined 31-45 record (.408 winning percentage). If your starting rotation is the precursor of your final team record, this projects to a woeful 66 win season. But Epstein and Hoyer are looking for "bounce back" seasons from every player they have signed or traded for this off-season. That is going to be a really hard sell, especially if Garza is traded next.
