If the Cubs make no further moves, we can speculate on the 2012 major league roster and attempt to forecast the team's final win-loss record based upon the basic elements of the game, runs allowed and runs scored (see earlier post).
The starting rotation (pitcher/runs allowed/IP):
Garza 90/198
Maholm 72/162
Dempster 111/202
T. Wood 57/106
Volstad 96/166
Bullpen:
Marmol 33/74
Samardzija 35/88
Russell 37/168
Corpas 33/62 (2010 stats)
Sonnanstine 22/36
S. Maine 8/7
The pitching staff history projects 594 runs allowed over 1169 IP. We calculated earlier that a team needs to pitch 1458 innings in a season. Based on the available information, the team ERA projects to 4.57.
The roster (with runs scored) breaks down with an extra hitter than in past years because scoring is going to be an issue:
Soto 46, Castillo (38 AAA), Baker 20, Barney 66, Castro 91, Bianchi (63 AA), LaHair 9 (91 AAA), Stewart 14 (29 AAA), Byrd 51, Soriano 50, DeJesus 60, R. Johnson 33, Sappelt 14 (40 AAA) and DeWitt 21. (Update: Bianchi was waived by the Cubs to make roster room for Maholm. Bianchi was then claimed by the Brewers. We had him as the 25th man on the roster, adding 38 Rs to team projected total. It seems Hoyer is not wed to players he acquires to fill gaps. Campana may be a roster choice now, with similar reserve results).
Taking into account minor league numbers at 60% (discounted for major league pitching), and not taking into consideration the "comeback seasons" management is praying for on most of the roster, the Cubs are projected to to score approximately 631 runs in 2012. The runs per game average is 3.90.
The differential between RPG and ERA is (0.67).
In the NL Central last year, such a RPG/ERA differential would put you near the bottom.
The Cubs had a (0.30) for 71 wins and the Astros had a (0.78) for 56 wins.
Based on these ratios, the Cubs project to a 60 wins, 102 losses, 2012 season.
