ANOTHER LISTLESS SPRING

 The Cubs start another season with very little competition for roster spots.

The Cubs went into the winter hibernation in early fire sale mode. The Yu Darvish salary dump and the owners cry of "biblical losses" due to the pandemic were not greatly received by Cub fans. The Atlanta Braves, the only publicly held team, reported a 2020 operating loss of $54 million.  The league claims $2.8 billion in losses (if Braves are average team, the league claim is double). 

A round of journeymen signings leads the Cubs who are really on the last year of the championship core window (which has effectively closed). Bringing back Jake Arrieta after two below average years is not a solution to a rotation that lost 4/5ths of last year's opening day starters. 

Barring any injury, this appears to be your Opening Day roster:

Starting Rotation: Hendricks, Davies, Arrieta, Mills, Williams

Catchers: Contreras, Romine

Infielders: Rizzo (1b), Hoerner (2b/ss), Bote (2b/3b), Baex (ss), Bryant (3b)

Outfielders: Happ, Heyward, Pederson, Marisnick

Bullpen: Kimbrel (closer), Workman, Winkler, Ryan, Wick, Wieck, Chafin, Tempera, Alzolay

Not a dominating team with any real depth.

The bullpen is basically last year's hit and miss crew. Kimbrel is still the closer by default since Jeffries left for free agency. Out of the mix are two of last year's spot starters: Alzolay and Rea.

The only bright spot is that only the Cardinals seemed to have attempted to improve their roster with the Arenaldo trade. The rest of the division have been salary cutting veterans. But it will be another long 2020 type season as the pandemic starts its fourth wave right around Opening Day.

THE SAME BUT DIFFERENT

Last season, Joe Maddon used 152 different line ups.

He used to text his players the night before the game what the line up would be.

This year, he says he will change this routine. He will now text line ups for the entire series. But this does not mean the Cubs are changing to a set, regular line up.

Yahoo Sports writes that that is not going to happen. Maddon doesn't want a stable lineup with 7-8 regulars playing every day. Theo Epstein doesn't want it. Jed Hoyer doesn't want it. The "Geek Squad" doesn't recommend it. And the roster doesn't allow for it. In theory.

If the Cubs have a 3-game set beginning on a Monday night in boring ole St. Louis, for example, Maddon or new bench coach Mark Loretta plan to text players on that Sunday night to let them know what the projected lineups would be for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The whole "set lineup" narrative got a lot of traction last year as an ill-informed potential reason for why the Cubs lineup may have struggled or why some young players took a step back. It picked up steam the day after the Cubs were stunned in that National League Wild-Card game. Some players have quietly complained to management that they do not like the day to day uncertainty of the line up.

"Part of it is developmental, part of it is match up. Some of it's trying to put you in a situation to make you look better. It takes time for young players to understand it. I think veterans get that a little bit better. Even though a veteran might want to play more often, he understands his role may be in this and it might be the best thing for him. It just takes time," Maddon said.

Part of the problem is that Maddon likes a roster with players playing multiple positions. This gives him more flexibility to find better hitter match ups. But playing multiple players out of their natural position does hurt their defensive metrics. Last season the Cubs took a large set back in the team's overall defense.

Also, the Cubs still do not have a traditional lead off hitter who can get on base for the run producers in the second, third and clean up spots. Stat gurus now quibble with the notion of the old school lead off hitter being important in line up construction, but baserunners are still key in even a home run centric era.  

Players are creatures of habit. If they know they are going to bat second every time they play in the field, it is one less thing to worry about. But Maddon has his players batting anywhere from lead off to 9th. 

The Cubs do have fielders that deserve a regular, everyday spot in a set line up: Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras, Baez and possibly Zobrist (if Russell does not make the club). The rest of the line up can be in a regular platoon situation.

For example:

1. ______________

2. Bryant 3B

3. Rizzo 1B

4. Baez SS/2B

5. Contreras C

6. ______________
7. ______________
8. ______________

If Russell stays, he is a shortstop batting near #8, possibly sharing time with Bote.
Happ and Almora could platoon in CF.
Heyward, depending on his start, would be in RF platooning with Zobrist or even Bryant.
Schwarber has LF to lose, but he could platoon with Happ and Zobrist as well.

But you can set a "regular" portion of the line up (two through five) quite easily, but Maddon is stubborn in his ways.

THE CALL FOR A SET LINE UP

The off-season begins in earnest with option calls and exclusive negotiation periods for free agents.

Roster rebuilds are the bread and butter of winter work for teams.

The Cubs have built a roster of utility players, i.e. players who can play multiple positions, In the past, utility players were bench substitutes, pinch hitters and Sunday starters. But with the new religion of advanced stats and match-ups, lefty righty, situational OBP, shift and base running at end of games becomes more important than having regular starters and bench players.

Joe Maddon loves multi-use guys. He likes to mix and match lineups to opposing starting pitchers. ESPN Chicago notes that in 2018, Joe Maddon wrote out 152 different lineups in 163 games (and that's not even factoring in the pitcher's spot). That's a bump up from 2017 (143 different lineups) and 2016 (130 lineups in the regular season of the championship year).

How does that relate to the top contenders around the league?
The last four World Series teams (2017 Astros, 2018 Red Sox and the 2017-18 Dodgers) averaged 145 different lineups per regular season. All 2018 MLB playoff teams (excluding Cubs) averaged 129.1 separate lineups throughout the regular season. The Dodgers tallied 155 different lineups in 2018 and 147 in 2017 and they made it to the World Series both seasons. The Astros posted 144 new lineups each of the last two regular seasons while the Red Sox were at 134 lineups and the Brewers and Yankees sat at 137 lineups in 2018.

It seems that all teams are  mixing and matching lineups. Front offices are living in a  world of extreme platooning, bullpening and shifting which equates to a lot of different lineups.

If the rest of the league has adopted this philosophy, why would the Cubs be any different?

In his post season press conference, Theo Epstein indicated that some players told him they would like less daily lineup shakeups. A regular lineup is what they felt would be good for them.

 If the Cubs do not make major personnel moves this off-season (due to budgetary and luxury tax restraints), then the only major change would be how the players on the roster will be used in 2019. A regular, set lineup may be that major move.

In the past, starters earned "their job" and kept their position on the field until injury or demotion. Players in the minors worked hard to "earn" a position on a 25 man roster. It is that competition and fear of losing one's spot that keeps a player focused on playing hard and performing well. But when you have a dozen position players vying for 8 daily spots with a manager who likes to mix and match, you know you will play most of the time (but not necessarily a complete game at a time.)

Professional athletes are creatures of habit. They have set pregame routines (almost superstitions). They want to know their role so they can adjust their play to match the manager/team's expectations. There are two components of knowing your position: the place you play in the field and the number spot in the batting order. Most baseball players are more concerned about the latter - - - because where you hit in the order can affect your mental approach in an at-bat.

For example, a lead off hitter has to have the mentality of getting on base so the heart of the order can drive him home. A free swinging lead off hitter cannot "set the table." When the Cubs had Alfonso Soriano hitting lead off, it was not because it make sense but because Soriano demanded the spot because he felt he would see more fastballs he could hit.

Maddon only used the same lineup a total of 5 times in 2018.

Some believe the causes of this non-regular line up were:
1.  Bryant's shoulder injury became an issue and he was out for an extended period of time.
2. Russell's nagging injuries affected his hitting and fielding in such a manner that he needed more rest.
3. Heyward's defense in RF was more important than his hitting (which then improved under Chili Davis securing more playing time.)
4. Contreras' slumping season at the plate caused him to slowly drop down the order.
5. Maddon likes to play favorites with his veterans like Zobrist, giving him more playing time than with Happ or Almora.
6. And the front office pushing Schwarber as a pure hitter so he had to play LF to get at-bats.
7. Maddon's odd approach of putting struggling hitters (including Rizzo) in the lead off spot. (The Soriano philosophy).

Granted, the Cubs won 95 games with this carousel approach. But in the second half of the season, hitting became a real problem and some players may believe it was because of the daily changes in the lineup.

The platoon situation works if you have multiple players who can evenly perform at a high situational level (righty-lefty matchups). But if your roster is filled with .240 hitting utility players, then it really does not matter which ones start a game. The Cubs multiple position player depth is not the same as having a deep bench where the bench player is as good as a starter who earns that position. The bench or role players on the club are now pretty obvious: Schwarber, Almora, Happ, Zobrist, Russell, LaStella, Heyward, Bote. You could start a game with these 8 players, but why would you?

Which players have "earned" a regular starting position? Those players who do not have enough fatal flaws to become a platoon player:

Rizzo at 1B. Bryant at 3B. Baez at 2B/SS.

If a team objectively self-scouts, you can see the need to upgrade all of the other positions with a full time player.  That may be why fans are anxious to see if the Cubs will legitimately go after Bryce Harper and/or Manny Machado. Those players would be penciled in to start 154 games.

Even if the front office is handcuffed into keeping its existing roster, spring training would be an open battle field to determine who will be the starting 8. If Bote can hit enough, that would move Bryant to the outfield. If Russell can regain his ability to hit the ball with power and RBI numbers, Baez can be set at second. Do you trust Almora to be your regular center fielder? Will Heyward be content being only a late inning defensive substitute? This is the perplexing problem the Cubs must address this off-season as Epstein was not happy with the direction of the club as it finished 2018.

Fans are like the players when it comes to a set lineup. They pay to see the best players on their team. If there is a set lineup, they are almost guaranteed to see their favorite player play.

PROJECTED LINE UP

The Cubs will probably shift focus on the lead off spot for 2018.

With the Brewers having improved their offense, the Cubs still need to make sure their offense starts early and often.

Projected lineup:

1. Happ cf  (S)
2. Bryant 3b (R)
3. Rizzo 1b (L)
4. Contreras c (R)
5. Schwarber lf (L)
6. Russell ss (R)
7. Baez 2b (R)
8. Heyward rf (L)
9. Pitcher

If Maddon adopts a three-way outfield platoon:

Against right handers:

1. Happ cf  (S)
2. Bryant 3b (R)
3. Rizzo 1b (L)
4. Contreras c (R)
5. Schwarber lf (L)
6. Russell ss (R)
7. Baez 2b (R)
8. Heyward rf (L)
9. Pitcher

Against left handers:

1. Happ rf (S)
2. Bryant 3b (R)
3. Rizzo 1b (L)
4. Contreras c (R)
5. Schwarber lf (L)
6. Russell ss (R)
7. Baez 2b (R)
8. Almora cf (L)
9. Pitcher

If Schwarber cannot hit lefties, then pop Almora to bat #5 and slot Zobrist in #8 in RF.

TOP OF THE ORDER

In six spring training games, Ian Happ has owned the lead off spot. He is hitting .471 with 4 home runs, 7 RBI and .500 OBP.

In his rookie season, Happ hit .253 with 24 HR, 68 RBI, 8 SB and .328 OBP.

Maddon has been trying out Happ, Jason Heyward and Albert Almora in the lead off spot. Schwarber ha also been mentioned as a possible lead off man. It appears that Maddon wants an outfielder to lead off games.

But Happ has clearly drawn the attention of the media and fans. In comparison to Heyward, Happ's offensive production is far superior. In outfield defense, Heyward is much better with a .14 dWAR verus Happ's 0.0 dWAR. Heyward had a 2.3 WAR in 2017. Happ had a 1.8 WAR.

It may come down to which players will play the most in the outfield. The Cubs love Schwarber but can he be a consistent hitter against both right handed and left handed pitchers? Almora has been a bench player. Is he ready for a full time center field role?  Happ was a super sub playing multiple positions in the OF and second base. Will he take playing time away from Zobrist?

Since the lead off man is critical to getting the team off to a good start, it would appear Happ and Almora would share those duties. Whether they will platoon in CF is another question. It is possible that Happ could emerge as a full time starter by platooning with both Almora and a corner outfielder (Schwarber or Heyward).

The elephant in the room is Heyward's contract. But if make Heyward a defensive replacement, the person replacing him at the plate must be productive to off-set the decline in defensive WAR.

Since Happ is a switch hitter with power from both sides of the plate, he makes the most sense to match up against starting pitchers.  Against a right handed starter, the outfield could be Schwarber in left, Happ in center and Heyward in right. Against a left handed pitcher, the outfield could be Schwarber or Zobrist in left, Almora in center and Happ in the right.

Happ may be the most valuable asset Maddon has to use in 2018. While the team wants to give Heyward a full opportunity to correct his offensive problems, it should not be at the expense of Happ.

MADDENING SERIES

As the NLCS returns to Wrigley Field with the tenor of "must win" games, the focus is still on Joe Maddon strange managerial moves. From the time he mule whipped Wade Davis to pitch in three innings in the NLDS finals to putting in a cold John Lackey to hold NLCS Game 2 in the 9th, Maddon has been soundly criticized for his actions.

When the Cubs charter plane had to make an emergency landing because of a player's family member's medical issue, it could have been seen as a bad omen. The players had to sit on the plane for 5 hours because regulations required a crew change. It was a stressful cross country trek to get to LA for Game 1.

The debate for the Game 1 starter was between Quintana, who just pitched in relief, and Lackey who was on the roster as an observer in the NLDS. Considering the weakness and overwork of the bullpen, many people thought Lackey should start Game 1 for the following reasons: 1) he was fresh; 2) Dodgers stadium is a big ball park, a pitcher's park; 3) he has post-season experience; and 4) if he is on the roster, use him. You could get 7 innings out of him and Montgomery to save the bullpen for the series.

But Maddon chose Quintana to start. But it was reported just before the game started that the player's family member stricken on the charter flight was Quintana's wife. They stayed in New Mexico on Friday. And that she was still recovering in LA on Saturday. Why would you summon a player to the mound when there are still serious personal issues on his mind?

In order to set up the rotation on proper rest, Maddon should have had Lackey pitch Game 1 followed by Quintana, Lester, Arrieta and Hendricks.

Quintana pitched 5 innings, keeping the game close. It was the bullpen that let the Dodgers secure the lead. Hector Rondon replaced Justin Wilson on the roster (which was a good move considering Maddon did not trust Wilson in any key situation). Rondon gave up a home run - - - it was a good pitch that was taken deep.

To compound the rotation issue, Maddon called on Lester to pitch Game 2 on short rest. Lester struggled through 4 2/3 innings. Edwards and Strop came in to pitch well. But in the 9th inning, Maddon had Lackey come in to stop a Dodger rally. It was a disaster. Lackey clearly was not ready to come into the game as he wandered around the mound in a five minute time span to pitch to two batters. Normally, a starting pitcher takes at least a half hour to warm up. An older pitcher may take longer to get loose. In Game 2, Lackey was called in the 9th to relieve. It appeared he was not physically or mentally prepared to shut down the Dodgers. He gave up the walk off HR to Turner.

Maddon explained that he did not go to closer Davis in the bottom of the 9th in a tie game because he wanted to save him "for a save situation." He said Davis would only be able to throw an inning so he did not want to use him in a non-save situation. But Maddon's comments shows the flaws in his own logic. The only reason Davis could only throw an inning in Game 2 is that he had been burned out in Game 5 of the NLDS. Maddon was looking ahead for the Cubs to score in the 10th inning to set up a save opportunity. But the Cubs offense was dormant - - - there was no guarantee that the Cubs would  bat again. There is a general philosophy in baseball that a visiting team uses its closer in the 9th inning of a tied game because it is a sudden death situation. Maddon did the opposite.

Maddon continues to defy his seasonal decisions. He keeps on putting players in situations which they have never done before in their career, let alone in the regular season. A prime example of this was putting Lackey in Game 2. Lackey had never pitched in back to back games in his entire career. Lackey is not a relief pitcher, let alone taking on a closer's role.

Maddon cornered himself with his post-season pitching decisions because he only had Montgomery and Davis available in the pen for the end of Game 2. Montgomery has experience closing out playoff games (Game 7 of the 2016 WS) but he may have been physically drained to be put into a high pressure 9th. Maddon may have also thought he needed a "long" reliever in extra innings.

On the opposite dugout, Dodgers manager Roberts told reporters that he does not hesitate to take out a starter early in a game. He places his relievers to face certain batters. For example, he said he would make sure that Morrow would face Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras (the 2-3-4 hitters) and not use him for the bottom of the order. By assigning his relievers to where he wants them to pitch before the game starts allows Roberts not to second guess himself.

While the focal point of Maddon's decisions has been pitching, the Cubs hitters are in a terrible slump. They are not taking walks. They are fishing for breaking balls in the dirt. They are deer in the headlights of change ups. But Maddon kept putting in players who are struggling at the plate.  He has done two double switches which had Almora, his most consistent batter, taken out of the game. He has also forgotten about playing Happ at any position. And the post-season magic of Schwarber appears to be at its end.

It will take a Cubs home sweep to give the team a remote chance to make it to the World Series. Maddon's moves to date have not helped his team win games.

CHOICES

We do not know what more Albert Almora can do to secure a starting job.

Last night, Almora became the first Cubs player to drive in six runs during a game he did not start since Mandy Brooks did it at Philadelphia on Aug. 25, 1925.

The 2017 Cubs have been marred by the lack of scoring and lapses in defense. A solution to part of those woes has been sitting on the bench for most of the season.

Almora is the best defensive center fielder on the team. But he has been used in 117 games as mostly a defensive replacement.

Almora stat line: 270 AB, 34 R, .285 BA, 6 HR, 35 RBI, 1 SB, .330 OBP, 0.8 WAR.

But Joe Maddon has preferred to put infielder Ian Happ in the outfield.

Happ's stat line: 321 AB, 51 R, .255 BA, 22 HR, 56 RBI, 8 SB, .329 OBP, 1.5 WAR (-0.2 dWAR).

Happ has more versatility by playing both outfield and infield positions. He is also a switch hitter with power.

But Maddon used to preach defense as a means of winning. That is why he continues to play Heyward in RF even during his batting slumps.

Maddon made the choice of power over defense with Happ over Almora.

The best defensive outfield Maddon could put on the field is Jay in LF, Almora in CF and Heyward in RF. The best power outfield is Schwarber, Happ and Zobrist. Maddon has been mixing and matching all season to find some sort of balance. 

The Cubs will have some tough choices in the off-season.  The farm system has no real premium assets to trade for missing pieces for 2018 (starting pitching, back up catcher, closer, bullpen arms). Someone from the current major league roster will have to be dealt.

Kyle Schwarber falls in and out of favor. He is hitting just above .200 with power numbers. But he is still a defensive liability in LF and he has not returned to catching since his serious knee injury. Most scouts believe he is destined to be a DH in the American League. But the front office loves "their guys" and Schwarber is one of their guys.

So is Happ and Almora, both first rounders. Maybe in the post-season line up where defense is valued more, both Happ and Almora will be starters. But it is doubtful. If Russell comes back, he will start at short and Baez will move to second (blocking Happ from his natural position). That would move Happ to the outfield, to displace Schwarber (doubtful because of his post-season heroics) or to start in center over Jay and Almora.

No matter what happens this year, Almora has great value being some team's starting center fielder in 2018.

LOAD UP THE BUS

Joe Maddon has never been shy about using platoons.

He says that he needs to keep his bench players "fresh" so he tries to start them at least one a week.

A platoon situation in the major leagues is really a concession that the team does not have one full-time major league player at that position. You have a player who may hit right handers better than the other guy, and thus the lineup card is dictated purely by match-ups.

The Cubs have found themselves in an unusual Triple Platoon situation. Ian Happ, Albert Almora and Jon Jay are all playing regular center field for the Cubs. Add in the occasion move of Jason Heyward to center to have Ben Zobrist in right, center field has become a summer park district program.

Center field production is one of the many Cub 2017 issues.

Almora has played in 49 games. He is hitting .268, 3 HR, 12 RBI, .322 OBP.
Newcomer Happ has played in 24 games. He is hitting .213, 5 HR, 10 RBI, .315 OBP.
Bench player Jay has played in 49 games. He is hitting .296, 0 HR, 10 RBI, .386 OBP.

You don't think your center fielder will be the tops in any category (Colorado's Blackmon is an exception in RBI), but the leaders in categories show how far off the Cubs players are:

HR leader: Judge 18.
RBI leader: Lamb 56.
BA leader: Zimmerman .365.
OBP leader: Trout .461.

Contributing to the Cubs offensive woes is that default starting LF Kyle Schwarber is hitting a season low .170, 10 HR, 25 RBI, .297 OBP. Also in a funk (on and off the field) is Addison Russell. He is hitting only .209, 3 HR, 19 RBI and .291 OBP.

Normally,  Happ, Schwarber, and Russell would be candidates to be sent down to the minors to work on their game (physically and mentally). But there is no one in Iowa is begging for a promotion. The best CF is Jacob Hanneman, but he is hitting .400 in only 5 games (0 HR, 3 RBI). He must have been hastily promoted because in AA he only hit .180, 1 HT, 6 RBI in 34 games. Likewise, the Iowa shortstop, Ozzie Martinez, is hitting a light .219, o HR and 8 RBI in 40 games. The best Iowa middle infielder this season was Happ.

In one respect, the Cubs could load up the bus and send a bunch of players to Iowa. But in another respect, there is no one worthy of being called up to fill their places.

OUT OF ORDER

Fifty games into the season and the Cubs ship still lists in the harbor.

A .500 team with flaws in each element of the game is not what we expected from the defending world champs.

Either Maddon believes (hopes) or expects his lineup to start to produce factory perfect six run games by getting on base and bashing homers. But the only consistent thing so far is inconsistency.

Slumping players are still playing big roles.  The discouragement is growing daily. The excuses no longer sound legit after two months of play.

The bold experiment of Schwarber in the lead off spot is over. He did not get on base to set the table for Bryant and Rizzo. His strike out rate of 33% was too high with his low batting average of .181.

The Cubs have no prototypical lead off man. Fowler was the table setter last season (but is struggling himself in St. Louis.)  Zobrist has been moved into the spot, but he is not a speedy, run manufacturing type player.

If you were going to set the order based on merit alone. it would look something like this:

1. Bryant 3B
2. Rizzo 1B
3. Zobrist LF
4. Happ CF
5. Contreras C
6. Heyward RF
7. Russell SS
8. Baez 2B

THE FLAWS

MadBum had a bad arm last night. The Cubs radio team saw it immediately in the first inning when Bumgarner only threw two fastballs.  At that point the Cubs had an advantage; batters could work the soft counts and increase the Giant's ace pitch count. It worked. Bumgarner was out of the game in the 5th.

Jake Arrieta was better than lowered expectations, especially when he hit a 3 -run homer to give the Cubs a large, early lead.

In an elimination game, you should not change what was working in the past. But Joe Maddon wanted to juggle and tinker the entire game. It showed the flaws in the Cub team.

Mike Montgomery threw 4 good relief innings, because he had to. Maddon had used everyone in the pen except C.J. Edwards.

Maddon burned through Wood, Rondon, Chapman and Grimm in the 8th inning. 

The bullpen situation unraveled in the 8th when Maddon called upon Chapman to do something he told Joe in the regular season he was uncomfortable in doing: the multiple inning save. Chapman gave up the lead in the bottom of the 8th; the staff getting torched for 3 runs.

For some reason, Maddon panicked in the 8th, thinking that he had to win the series then and now. 

But Kris Bryant hit a homer to tie the game in the 9th. This lead to a long, extra inning game with the Cubs short on bullets.

Montgomery was the only long reliever left in the pen. Some may say that was a roster mistake knowing that the Giants-Cubs play tight games. Further complicating the matter was Kyle Hendricks short start because of the line drive off the forearm. The keeping of only 11 pitchers may not be the critical issue unless you believe Cahill was a better choice than Coghlan. But Cahill would have given Maddon more relief innings than Grimm.

Montgomery gets the loss in the scorecard, but the loss really falls on the manager and how he used his roster during the game.

Now, after a long night game, the Cubs have to come back and regroup after giving the Giants the momentum and confidence to come back. The pressure is really on the Cubs tonight. And the team acquired John Lackey for his big playoff game experience.

SLIPPING

The Cubs fast start spoiled many of their fans.

After going a fireball 25-6 to start the season, the Cubs have since "struggled" with a 27-25 mark.

The Cubs are still 9 games ahead of second place Cardinals in the NL Central. But many feel that there is something really wrong.

The objective evidence is that the vaulted starting rotation cannot get through 6 innings.
The objective evidence is that the bullpen is not as solid as last season.
The objective evidence is that opponents have adjusted to the Cubs - - - being more patient at the plate, getting pitchers into high pitch counts and stressful innings.
The objective evidence that the Cubs have been relying more on the home run than the congo-line big inning run production.
And the stellar defense has had a few big errors in recent weeks.

The Cubs have lost 5 of the last 6; 6 of the last 10; and 12 of the last 20 games.

Part of the problem may stem from the fact that the Cubs are starting so many prospects.
Part of the problem may stem from the fact that the Cubs still carry 13 pitchers which means the bench is small. Nothing is worse than having both Travis Wood and Jason Hammel pinch hit in the same game.
Part of the problem is that the Cubs line up is still triggered by Dexter Fowler in the lead off position. Fowler has a hamstring issue. There is no word when he will return. The Cubs want to be careful with Fowler so as not to rush him back in the line up.

Maddon knows something is a miss. He has been juggling lineups as strangely as Lou Piniella in his melt down year. He sent down Adam Warren to AAA to stretch out to start a six man rotation because the Cubs are on a 24 game without a day off schedule (but Warren comes back to start one game prior to the All-Star break). There may be more fear in the five starters continually to be average to poor pitchers after the break as to demote one (Hammel is a candidate).

Maddon keeps moving players around to keep them engaged in the team concept. With no set lineups, it is an adventure every day. He wants to keep his team loose. But it almost cost him when Albert Almora and Kris Bryant collided Monday in the outfield. Bryant left the game with a leg bruise, but it could have been worse. (The Schwarber injury was on a similar play.) Maddon likes his rookies aggressive play, but they still need to learn to adapt to major league circumstances. The veterans also need to get their baseball IQ refreshed like when John Lackey put his hands on his head after a passed ball, but failed to cover home plate allowing speedy Billy Hamilton to score from second base!

The baseball season is the longest and most grueling test in American sports. There will be times when players are physically and mentally tired. But good teams find a way to push through and grind out the tough streaks in the schedule. The most critical point of the Cubs season will be the first 10 games after the All-Star break. Will the Cubs return to their favored sons status, or will the fear meter continue to creep up to crisis mode?

ANOTHER MAD GAME

When you take a risk and it works out, you are a genius. But if you should not have had to take a risk in the first place, one could say you are reckless and lucky.

The Cubs are a much better team than the AAA Reds. But it took 15 innings to put away the last place club. And in the process, it was another maddening game.

Joe Maddon ran out of position players in the 13th inning. That should never happen. But Joe continues to believe that he can mix and match players like it is a Stat-O-Matic card or video game. By the end of the game, three relief pitchers had played left field.

Travis Wood and Spencer Patton alternated pitching and playing left in the 14th inning like it was a 7 year old youth baseball game. Wood pitched the 15th while Pedro Strop, for no apparent reason, stood out in left field.

Maddon justified the bizarre situation.  "We were down to almost nothing," he said after using 22 of the 25 players on his roster. "Travis, my God, what an athlete. ... Travis made everything possible. He may have had his best stuff all year."

But it should have never come to that point. The Reds pitching staff is a mess, but the Cubs could only scratch out 2 runs in 9 frames. The Reds Brandon Phillips was hobbled like a 75 year old man after taking fouls off his ankle, arch and rib cage. But Hector Rondon blew another save, and that started a weird shuffle the lineup deck in Maddon's mind.

When Maddon put in 40 year old reliever Joel Peralta in the 13th, he replaced OF Chris Coghlan in left field with Wood. That move makes no sense. Period. Coghlan is a better defensive player. In a tied game, in extra innings, defense matters.Especially when the Reds had the winning run at second base!  Maddon could have always replaced Peralta with Wood without taking out Coghlan.

Maddon must have mentally justified keeping Wood in the game to get pitcher-batter match ups. Wood got to bat in the top of the 14th before going back out to left field in the bottom of the inning while Maddon called upon Patton to pitch. After Patton got an out, he replaced Wood in left field and Wood took the mound to get left handed hitter Jay Bruce out on a ground ball. Patton then came back in from left to get the final out of the 14th.

The Cubs away with the over-managing moves by scoring 5 runs in the 15th, highlighted by Javy Baez's grand slam to deep center field. But it did not stop Maddon from using Jason Hammel to pinch hit for Patton, requiring Pedro Strop to play left field in the bottom of the 15h.

After the game,Maddon said he had never used three pitchers in the outfield in a single game and was shaking his head trying to remember all the decision-making that went on to pull this game off.
And that is part of the problem. The decision making process of making so many moves leads to potential problems, including situations later on in the season. As many other commentators have said for more than a week, throwing players in different positions can lead to Kyle Schwarber injuries, especially using much needed catalyst Willson Contreras in left field.

Maybe things will calm down when Jorge Soler and Tommy LaStella come back off the DL. But probably not.

LITTLE LEAGUE

When Joe Maddon inserted Kris Bryant at shortstop for an inning late in the Dodger game, one reaction was that the move was "little league."

He is moving players around like a little league manager, Bruce Levine said on the radio. Levine also noted that the Cub players do not fear playing new positions.

But that still begs the question: why?

No team has won the World Series by fielding eight utility players.

By playing players out of the normal position a) increases the chance of injury (Schwarber in LF); and  b) lessens the quality of defense (Heyward in CF). It is very rare for a player to be very good at more than one position. Ben Zobrist has made a career on being a super utility player (SS, 2B, 3B, OF). Javy Baez's best position is shortstop. He has the arm and range to play third and second base.

Other than Zobrist and Baez, no other Cub players are plus defenders outside their natural position. It is fine to send Bryant to LF to insert Baez at third when a ground ball pitcher like Jon Lester is on the mound.

But most players will tell you that they like a normal routine. They are creatures of habit.

But Maddon is not. He likes to keep the team loose, and off-guard. Putting Bryant at shortstop was a wake up call to the bench. Bryant did not have a ball hit to him or had to make a play at short, but objectively, it could have been one of those WTF moments. A grounder deep in the hole could cause Bryant to strain muscles or his arm trying to make a jump throw to first. Or worse, trying to make the double play at second base moving his body across the bag, throwing against his body and being hit by a base runner.

A manager needs to be a risk assessment manager. There is no upside for Bryant playing shortstop. The risk of injury against his routine positioning and throwing motions makes it an accident waiting to happen. Bryant has shown he is an above average third baseman. He is OK in left field. Let him play his natural position so he can concentrate on hitting.

CUBS OPENING DAY ROSTER

CSNChicago has posted the Cubs Opening Day roster.

Catchers
Miguel Montero
David Ross
Kyle Schwarber
Infielders
Anthony Rizzo
Kris Bryant
Addison Russell
Ben Zobrist
Tommy La Stella
Outfielders
Jason Heyward
Dexter Fowler
Jorge Soler
Matt Szczur
Starting pitchers
Jake Arrieta
Jon Lester
John Lackey
Jason Hammel
Kyle Hendricks
Relief pitchers
Hector Rondon
Pedro Strop
Justin Grimm
Travis Wood
Trevor Cahill
Adam Warren
Clayton Richard
Neil Ramirez

Javy Baez will start the season on the DL (thumb) and will probably be assigned to extended spring training.

The one surprise is Szczur making the squad as the 4th OF.

CACTUS START

There is little tea leaves to read with Joe Maddon's spring training opening day lineup:

1. Kyle Schwarber - LF
2. Kris Bryant - 3B
3. Anthony Rizzo - 1B
4. Jorge Soler - RF
5. Miguel Montero - C
6. Javy Baez - CF
7. Tommy La Stella - 2B
8. Dan Vogelbach - DH
9. Munenori Kawasaki - SS
Travis Wood - P

This will not be the regular opening day batting order. Schwarber, Bryant, Rizzo and Soler at the top is only a means of getting them extra "live" at-bats.

Travis Wood as starting pitcher is little more than long relief stint this early in the camp schedule. He will not throw more than 2 IP (depending on pitch count). Maddon had already disclosed that his three main starters, Arrieta, Lester and Lackey, would skip the first week of games to conserve their arms for the regular season. Some old school pitching coaches would say "you should not train to avoid an injury. You should train harder to avoid injuries."

Arrieta is a work-out machine so his preparation is not to be disputed. However, he threw a large increase in innings pitched last season (and struggled at the end) so for those who believe there is a finite number of throws in a human arm would like what Maddon is doing with his starters.

Maddon should not be set with either Hammel or Hendrick as the 4th and 5th starter. Wood is getting a look to be the 5th starter. Warren will also get a long look, even though the front office really likes how the Yankees used him both as an effective starter and reliever last season. Cahill and Richard will also be probably stretched out for a shot at a starting role.

Spring training is a show case for players. First, for their existing team to make the opening day roster. Second, for other clubs who may scout them and look for a trade. It would seem that LaStella and Vogelbach are going to get big show cases early in camp.

REMAINING HOLES IN SOX

For the past two years, the White Sox have been aggressively going into the market to fill holes in the lineup.  For the most part, people were happy (on paper) of the work done by GM Hahn. This off season is no exception.

But despite all the moves and quality drafts of pitching, the White Sox still have several glaring holes and questions going into the 2016 season:

1. DH. After Dunn and LaRoche, the designated hitter slot is turning into the new dark hole that the third base position was after Joe Crede. The trade for D'back prospect Matt Davidson seems like a bust. Bringing in Mike Olt at the end of last year was a Hail Mail Pass after the game was over. This is still a continually issue for the Sox.

2. SS. Alexi Ramirez had faded and his time was up. Tyler Saladino is back at his natural position, but he did not show any bat potential last season. His competition, Carlos Sanchez, did not shine at the plate either. You can "hide" a great glove, no hit player in an AL line-up, IF you have a solid DH and good overall offense. We may see top prospect Tim Anderson arrive in the majors earlier than expected if the Sox need to win now.

3. RF. Avi Garcia is working his way out of town like Carlos Quinten did.  He had not blossomed like Sox management had hoped.He his .257, 13 HR, 59 RBI but had a negative 0.3 WAR. The Sox were rumored in play for some of the vaulted OF free agents, but apparently upper management would not commit to anything more than three year FA deals. J.B. Shuck does not seem to add any pressure for improvement in Garcia in RF.

But if you ask die hard Sox fans the Number 1 issue on their team, a good number would say manager Robin Ventura. Ownership is very loyal to Ventura. Initially, he did not want to be a field manager. He was looking to work up the executive ranks. But after the Ozzie nonsense, the team wanted to get a professional, easy going, good media guy. But Ventura has not worked out well as a manager. The team continually gets off to horrible starts, and he does not seem to have the players pushing to be their best. Ventura is in the last year of his current contract. Some think Ventura may be holding back the team and costing them victories. But in the end, last season's roster underperformed and had an a lower than average baseball IQ that cost them many games.

WEAKNESS

By national consensus, the Cubs are streaking to an overwhelming favorite to win the 2016 World Series. The time has come. This is the year. No doubt about it.

But we have been there before. A lot of times. Can this one be different? Perhaps.

But in all the joyful expectations, there needs to be some rational thought.  The Cubs have a fine young core of players who should get better with experience, but the club still has many weak spots.

WEAKNESS NO. 1: Starting Pitching

The Cubs were extremely lucky last year that there were not many serious injuries to its starting rotation. On the other hand, the rotation started to break down at the end of the season when Maddon could only count on Arrieta and Lester.  That is why the Cubs went out and signed John Lackey to be the veteran No. 3 starter. But Lackey is at the end of his career, and pitching more in hitter friendly Wrigley may not suit him. Plus, Maddon has lost confidence in Hammel, and Hendricks needs to make a major stride in 2016. The back end of the rotation lacks solid starters and depth.

The glaring indictment in the Epstein-Hoyer era is that they have yet to draft and develop a starting pitcher. Most of the prospect pitchers have come in early trades (Ramirez, Edwards, Hendricks, Arrieta, Grimm, etc.) Realizing that failure, the mantra has been "draft hitters and buy pitchers."  But most teams do not want to give up their young starter prospects because they are hard to find. So Plan B is to load the bullpen with former starters as long relievers (Cahill, Richard, T. Wood, Grimm) in case of rotation implosion. It was so bad that Maddon had to use "a bullpen start" for several games late in the season.

WEAKNESS NO. 2: Lead Off Hitter

Dexter Fowler did a competent job as the Cubs CF-lead off hitter, even though he was not the prototypical candidate (he did steal 20 bases). He was playing for a new contract so his power numbers were up. In fact, he is still waiting for a new contact.

The current Cubs roster contains no real lead off hitter, a high OBP guy with speed to put pressure on the opponent's defense. Names tossed around for lead off now include Heyward, Zobrist and even Bryant. Heyward is a contact hitter but with a weird swing so the pressure to get on base may hurt his game. Zobrist is old. Bryant's power potential is better suited batting next to Rizzo. The "second" lead off hitter, Russell, has not hit consistently enough to make the move to lead off. So this is a glaring weakness in the current lineup.

WEAKNESS NO. 3: Outfield Defense

Heyward is a major upgrade on defense. However, his best and most comfortable position in RF. The Cubs plan to play him exclusively in CF. And that move may continue to weaken a shaky outfield defense. An outfield of Schwarber-Heyward-Soler is very weak in the corners. Heyward has to cover much more ground in center to cover up for the corner's lack of range. Many players have problems adjusting to a new position at the major league level. A pet peeve is manager's who constantly play players out of their natural position like it was a video game. If Heyward is unhappy or uncomfortable in center, that can affect his hitting as well.

One solution is to let Schwarber catch more games. Montero is not a long term answer at catcher, but the Cubs are stuck with his contract for the next two years. Ross is Lester's personal catcher for one final year. That leaves maybe Schwarber catching one game a week. The rest of the time is LF or bust. But moving Schwarber behind the plate opens the door for Heyward to move back to RF, slide Soler to LF and put Coghlan or Szczur in CF which improves the overall outfield defense.

WEAKNESS NO. 4: Depth

For all the young hitters, the bench is still a soft spot. Maddon may want to keep 13 pitchers on the staff, which puts more pressure on the four bench players to be both versatile and good. Baez, who can play SS, 3B and 2B, is a lock for one spot but he has not been a part time player in his career. As a free swinger he needs a lot of at-bats to get into a groove. Many suspect Maddon will use him as a super-utility player like he did with Zobrist in Tampa; play him at various positions during the week to rest his starters. Ross takes up one spot but his hitting is worse than most of the pitchers on the staff. That leaves two open spots: Coghlan, who can play all outfield spots and who is willing to stick his glove at any other position, has to be on the team. Then the final spot goes to either light hitting glove outfielder Szczur or to another out-of-options candidate like 3B Villaneuva or utility infielder LaStella.

None of these bench candidates could start on any major league team except for Baez. There is no one on the AAA roster pushing for a major league position. One would suspect the 25th man is still not on the Cubs roster today; a late spring training pick up off the waiver wire is a real possibility.

PROBLEMS TO ADDRESS

For all the Cubs winning the off-season, the everyday lineup
is not very stable, at least defensively.

It may come down to this:

LF: Soler and Schwarber platoon
CF: Coghlan and Szczur platoon
RF: Heyward
3B: Bryant
SS: Russell
2B: Zobrist
1B: Rizzo
C: Montero, Ross (catching Lester), Schwarber (catching Hendricks)

Joe Maddon may have to become a master magician to balance the offensive potential with the defense weakness. One way of doing that is to play Heyward in his natural right field spot. Wrigley right field is a hard sun field so the quicker Heyward can adapt, the better for the defense.

Soler and Schwarber are both similar batters: high power potential but with inconsistent batting average and OBP. It is often said that left field is where you put your worst defensive outfielders. Soler and Schwarber are those players.

A center field platoon of Coghlan and Szczur is not the best solution, but since the Cubs are already overbudget on payroll, a new center fielder is not a viable option. Unless the Cubs can trade some salary (Hammel, who is believed the odd man out in the rotation), the Cubs will run with better defensive options in center than Heyward.

In order to make the Castro trade make sense, Warren will probably be the 5th starter on opening day. He made 17 starts for the Yankees last season, and reports indicate that he did well. Maddon lost confidence in Hammel, so I don't think he sets up well as the Edwin Jackson bullpen replacement when he was demoted from his starting spot.

You need to keep Schwarber's bat in the line up so becoming Hendricks personal catcher could help. They both worked together in the minors, so that may be a solution.

COVER THE CARD

One method of constructing a line up card is to have the next batter "cover" or protect the preceding hitter.

For example, a typical good lead-off batter would be covered by a #2 batter who can take pitches, draw walks, bunt, hit or run or move runners by hitting the opposite way. At the same time, the pitcher has to be wary of putting the #2 hitter on base knowing that the team's best hitter will be up next.

The Cubs currently have no established, traditional lead-off hitter.

Rizzo could be a #2 hitter since he meets most of the requirements of coverage. But he is a double play ground ball hitter, too. He would good better pitches to hit if the #3 hitter was Bryant, who has shown good plate discipline and power. If he can cut down on strike outs and play like his post-season form, Soler would be a good cover at #4 for Bryant. It gets harder to cover Soler because the #5 hitter should be able to drive in runners with gap power. Will Russell grow into this role (which would be a major promotion from batting mostly #9) or is it Castro's position to lose? Depending on where Schwarber will play full time, he makes the most sense at #5. That could push Castro to #6 and Russell to #7 and the catcher hitting ahead of the pitcher.

It gives a balance hitting line up: ?, lefty, righty, righty, lefty, righty, righty, lefty/righty, pitcher.

The idea of two right handers batting in a row is to help the second batter see how the pitcher is setting up right handed hitters. Pitchers throw differently to lefties than righties. This can help in game adjustments.

But most managers like the idea of flipping the batters box: R, L, R, L, R, L. But none of this really works unless each hitter knows his role and can understand the situation when he enters the batter's box.

That is why I am a proponent of a set line up card. The players, who are creatures of habit, can settle in to a clear routine. But Maddon, like most managers, likes to change things up based on stat analysis and gut feelings.

FIRST GUESSING

I think Maddon is overdoing it, again.

Word is that he will start Tommy LaStella at third base,
move Bryant to the big LF area, and move Schwarber to RF.

Why mix and match now?

LaStella is not a starter. He is not the best infield defender
(Baez). And Coghlan has more power than LaStella,
which is more important in a close game with a fastball
pitcher like Cole on the mound.

No, you play your best your best eight starters from the start of the game.

If Schwarber is a liability in the wide acreage of LF, move him to right field.
He has already played a couple games there. Then insert Coghlan in LF,
and keep Bryant at his natural position, third.

 With Arrieta on the mound, there should be less emphasis on defense because
he is a strike out pitcher with command. Against Cole, you need quick offense
and power bats in the lineup.