Sportswriter Tom Verducci has written extensively that if you give a young pitcher more than 30 innings more than he has ever pitched before, his chances of developing arm troubles increases or he takes a major step backward in his development. The anecdotal evidence of the risk of young arm injuries is about 67 percent using Verducci's methodology.
Teams have become obsessed with pitch counts and innings pitched for their starters. A starter who hits 100 pitches in a game is likely to be pulled from the mound. It is the assumption that like a machine, a pitcher only has so many built-in throws before his body starts to wear out.
Now, some older pitchers from the 1970s believe that the increase in pitcher injuries in the majors is not tied to innings pitched but on how players are being trained and conditioned from amateur to pro levels. Old school pitchers believed the more one threw, the stronger your arm would become. In addition, a pitcher would want to develop an "elastic" arm with strong leg action. Today, pitchers are into weight training routines that builds up and tones arm muscles which in some ways is the opposite of the old school way. In addition, throwing techniques have changed. Old school pitchers merely released the ball from their grip like a catapult shot. Now, pitchers are taught to "snap" their hands or wrists to add spin to the ball for sharper breaks around the plate. The snap motion puts more stress on a pitcher's elbow. That is why youth baseball teams do not allow their pitchers to even attempt to throw curve balls until the high school level.
This season we have two young star pitchers throwing their teams into the playoffs. But each team is handling their star starter differently.
The Nationals Stephen Strasburg is currently 15-5, 2.85 ERA in 145.1 IP. He is coming off arm surgery last season, which limited his major league innings to 24 and minor leagues to 20. He has added more than 100 innings of work this year, which puts him near the top of the Verducci watch list. As a result, the Nationals general manager has put a strict limit on IP for Strasburg: 180. Once he hits that mark, Strasburg will be shut down. It is projected that Strasburg will run out of innings with two weeks left in the season; he will miss the playoffs. Strasburg's success has been pivotal to the Nationals first place position. The Nats have overspent on starting pitching talent to go deep into the playoffs. But as fans know, success is fleeting at the major league level. Some teams (like the Cubs) may only get one shot at glory in a decade. When a team is on the cusp of a championship, it usually goes "all in" and does not think about "next year." But the Nationals are conserving Strasburg for future years.
The White Sox Chris Sale does not have any restrictions. He is currently 15-4, 2.65 ERA in 153 IP. Last year he pitched 71 innings in the majors. He also has gone past the Verducci number of increased IP. But the ChiSox are handling Sale much different than the Nationals with Strasburg. Sale has been given extended rest (skipped starts) during the season to "rest" his arm to avoid fatigue or "tired arm" syndrome. At the All-Star break, he was given around 10 days off. In September, he will get another 9-10 day break. The coaching staff has not limited his innings per start, as Sale continues to go deep into contests, especially when the games are close, In his last outing, he struck out a dozen Yankees.
What is different between these two young pitchers is more than just philosophy. Strasburg is the prototypical power pitcher. He has the large frame build that he leverages to overpower batters. Sale has the capacity of a 96 mph fastball that he showed as a reliever in 2011, but with his lanky frame, Sale has evolved into a pitcher rather than a thrower. Sale now uses an 88-93 mph fastball to punctuate his slider and change up.
The Nationals have counted on Strasburg to get them the divisional crown. The White Sox are counting on Sale to pitch them deep into the playoffs and possible championship series.
This will be the litmus test for future pitching decisions by major league clubs. Which procedure worked out the best for their team? Is shutting down a pitcher a better long term solution to the injury risk for a young arm, or is in-season rest stops the way to go? Teams may take the objective data from this season to formulate their own hybrid analysis for their young prospects.
