The news about the Cubs approaching Castro about a contract extension has created some Cub buzz in a rather dismal summer of baseball. But like the season itself, it is not all that positive.
Some writers glean that controlling Castro for six years is a good thing; this is a young All-Star caliber player that you can build your new team around.
Other writers question whether Castro has earned a huge Hanley Ramirez, Jose Reyes or BJ Upton type massive first long term contract.
The numbers are falling in the range of six years and north of $50 million to lock up Castro. That is an average salary of more than $8.33 million per season.
Given the fact that Castro's batting average has fallen, while his home run total is creeping up, we still do not know what type of final product Castro will be as a major leaguer. Clearly, he has shown no real improvement in his defensive skill set. He continues to have lack of focus issues on the field. After 2.5 years in the majors, you cannot say these are rookie mistakes anymore. And if the Cubs are seeking more power numbers from Castro to match his higher salary (like a Ramirez), then he is unlikely to continue to be a .300 hitter.
Then you have the potential problem that a long term contract for Castro will block the promotion of other, "better" shortstop candidates in your system. Jaiver Baez is ranked the second best prospect in the system. In high A ball this season, he has shown both power, batting average and stolen base skills. Junior Lake is ranked tenth best prospect. He has shown the same skill sets, but slightly lower numbers than Baez (but at a higher level of competition). Gioskar Amaya is another middle infield speedster who has shown in A ball the knack of hitting the ball. He is the 16th best prospect in the organization. Marco Hernandez is the 18th best prospect; a very good defensive player and good line drive switch hitter in A ball. The Cubs class of shortstop prospects would seem to reach major league potential all around the same time in three years. If Castro is still in the middle of a long term deal, then the team is potentially blocking several candidates from making an impact on the team.
Now, management could say that having an overload of talent at one position is a good thing. You can move a player from short to second or third. Or you can use that talent in trade to acquire other pieces for your team. But as we have seen this season, it is harder to actually do. Soriano has spent the past several seasons blocking the crop of young Cub outfielders from being promoted. He will continue to block at least one rookie until his deal expires (or the Cubs cut him).
The Cubs may be looking at the long term with a long term deal with Castro, but they also may not be looking clearly at the long term picture.
