When Stephen Strasburg did the unusual by agreeing to a long term extension with the Nationals instead of taking a chance in free agency, attention turned to Scott Boras' other client, the currently unworldly Jake Arrieta.
Arrieta was blunt to the Chicago media.
"Aces get seven years," Arrieta said of recent big name pitchers who signed mega deals. "I'll let you judge that. Just look at the numbers. You want to be paid in respect to how your peers are paid. I don't think that changes with any guy you ask. It happens around baseball every year."
The Strasburg decision seems to be "client" driven, meaning that the baseball agent was giving marching orders to get a deal done and not the agent driving the player's future.
Arrieta's words appear to be more "agent" driven - - - that Arrieta looks forward to get paid like his peers - - - in free agency.
And here is Arrieta's argument for looking for a major pay day:
He is in his 6th pro season. He is 30 years old. He has massed a career 17.2 WAR (with the Cubs 5.3, 8.7 and 2.1 in 2014, 2015, 2016). He has only been paid $15.5 million. Under WAR contract valuation, Arrieta's performance value was $86 million. In other words, he has outperformed his contract by five and one half times.
In contrast, Strasburg is also in his 6th season. Strasburg is only 27 years old. He has a career WAR of 8.8. He had been paid $25 million prior to the extension. His past WAR contract valuation was $44 million, so he was also underpaid by that standard. But Strasburg has leveraged his 59-37, 3.07 ERA career numbers into $175 million, almost four times the valuation metric.
Arrieta will be looking in 2017 for $30 million per season (6.0 WAR valuation) or more for seven years or $210 million. That would bring the back end of his contract into dead money years of his late 30s. Yahoo Sports' Jeff Passan has written extensively about the sudden production fall-off of pitchers in the 30s. That is why long term pitching contracts are not favored by the owners. The Cubs probably will do more than a 4 year deal with Arrieta.
But Arrieta is looking for his one great last contract without a hometown discount.
But a better comparison is David Price. Price, 30 years old, is in his 8th major league season. He signed a 7 year, $217 million contract this off-season. He is at the magic $30 million plus per season contract status. Price career numbers are good: 108-57, 3.19 ERA and 28.5 WAR. His past performance value was $146 million. With the new Boston deal, Price is struggling at 4-1, 6.75 ERA and negative 0.7 WAR.
So what is Arrieta worth?
Whatever a team is willing to pay. Arrieta's recent history would put him more in the Price category, but injury history and Arrieta's recent two grinding starts make some think more Strasburg. The difference between those two contracts is $42 million.
Current Cubs management has painted itself in a corner. It hit a home run with the Scott Feldman trade for Arrieta and Pedro Strop. However, the draft strategy of taking the best bats has given the team a "core" of young players who will need to be paid during any megadeal of Arrieta (plus Lester's deal). I don't see the Cubs willing to set aside $330 million for two pitchers from 2017 on when you have to think expensive extensions for Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant.
But the price of quality starting pitching continues to go up. The only way to counter that is to develop a young, solid core of pitchers from your own system. This is the Achilles heel for the Cubs: they have not developed a young arm under Theo-Jed. They have trapped themselves in finding a rotation through free agency.
The Cubs have one more full season of Arrieta control. If the Cubs cannot work out an extension with Arrieta this off-season, the Cubs have two options: keep him for his walk year or trade him at the Winter meetings for young, controllable, major league ready pitching. Some of these decisions will be determined by the new CBA (whether draft picks will still be at risk for qualifying offers).
It may depend on whether the Cubs win a championship in 2016. If that is the case, there is less pressure on ownership or management to keep Arrieta for 2017. If the Cubs fall short, then the pressure to win the championship in 2017 is expanded ten fold. Arrieta would have to be kept on board to anchor the pitching staff.
Without a doubt, in any situation, Arrieta is in the cat bird's seat.
Showing posts with label Strasburg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Strasburg. Show all posts
May 12, 2016
May 11, 2016
STRASBURG EXTENSION
He will still be the 6th highest paid pitcher in MLB history. But why did Washington's ace pitcher accept a long term extension early in his free agent walk year?
It was a baffling move from all sides. The Nationals have agreed to a seven-year, $175 million extension with RHP Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg is a Scott Boras client. Boras has the reputation of getting his clients to free agency where he can leverage the biggest deals (by getting teams to bid against each other). With an extension, Boras loses leverage to make a long term deal.
For Washington, it is a seven year risk based on Strasburg's injury history. The ace pitcher has underperformed throughout his career. He will soon be on the 7th anniversary of his Tommy John surgery. The Nats had said in the past that their major concern with any pitcher post-TJ is in year 7: they don't think the repaired ligament will hold after seven full MLB seasons. There is proof of this by the rash of pitchers having second TJ surgeries. So the Nationals are going against their own medical philosophy to make this extension.
In order to make a deal, both sides must receive something they value. For Strasburg, it is guaranteed money and an opt-out. For the team, it is deferring most of the guaranteed money.
According to the Washington Post, Strasburg will take home a team friendly $15 million annually from 2017 through 2023, excluding bonuses which could reach $7 million. The remaining $70 million will be deferred without interest and paid out in $10 million installments from 2024 through 2030. The team is spinning this extension at a "present value" of only $162 million.
Strasburg can opt out after its third and fourth seasons. If he can stay healthy, he can be a premier free agent in 2019 at age 30. But the real value to Strasburg, given his history, is this deal acts like an insurance policy against another major injury. If his arm gets hit by a bus tomorrow, he will get paid a lot of money through 2030.
In additional minor give and takes, Strasburg won’t receive no-trade protection but the team got no provisions relating to arm health to discount any future payouts.
The question remains why would Strasburg forego free agency? One would believe that he would have asked for a $200 million type David Price deal. Some could say that Strasburg did not want to "bet" on himself going into this off-season. Which is odd concerning in his first seven starts, he is 5-0, 2.76 ERA, 1.041 WHIP. But his body or his mind must have told him to cut a long term deal now when things are going well to take off any future financial pressures on his family.
The Nationals must believe that they got a star player at a market discount. But other teams see the revenue horizon being darker than today. Cable television model, which fueled the mega-local broadcast rights deals in the past few years, is going by the wayside. Younger fans consume their entertainment on demand and not by sitting to watch a designated game at a designated time on a designated channel. The big money spenders like ESPN have started to purge high priced talent and reign in expenses since their carriage charges are being balked at by the cable and satellite operators. In seven years, the MLB broadcast revenue could be cut in half which would make even Strasburg long term deal seem very expensive.
It was a baffling move from all sides. The Nationals have agreed to a seven-year, $175 million extension with RHP Stephen Strasburg. Strasburg is a Scott Boras client. Boras has the reputation of getting his clients to free agency where he can leverage the biggest deals (by getting teams to bid against each other). With an extension, Boras loses leverage to make a long term deal.
For Washington, it is a seven year risk based on Strasburg's injury history. The ace pitcher has underperformed throughout his career. He will soon be on the 7th anniversary of his Tommy John surgery. The Nats had said in the past that their major concern with any pitcher post-TJ is in year 7: they don't think the repaired ligament will hold after seven full MLB seasons. There is proof of this by the rash of pitchers having second TJ surgeries. So the Nationals are going against their own medical philosophy to make this extension.
In order to make a deal, both sides must receive something they value. For Strasburg, it is guaranteed money and an opt-out. For the team, it is deferring most of the guaranteed money.
According to the Washington Post, Strasburg will take home a team friendly $15 million annually from 2017 through 2023, excluding bonuses which could reach $7 million. The remaining $70 million will be deferred without interest and paid out in $10 million installments from 2024 through 2030. The team is spinning this extension at a "present value" of only $162 million.
Strasburg can opt out after its third and fourth seasons. If he can stay healthy, he can be a premier free agent in 2019 at age 30. But the real value to Strasburg, given his history, is this deal acts like an insurance policy against another major injury. If his arm gets hit by a bus tomorrow, he will get paid a lot of money through 2030.
In additional minor give and takes, Strasburg won’t receive no-trade protection but the team got no provisions relating to arm health to discount any future payouts.
The question remains why would Strasburg forego free agency? One would believe that he would have asked for a $200 million type David Price deal. Some could say that Strasburg did not want to "bet" on himself going into this off-season. Which is odd concerning in his first seven starts, he is 5-0, 2.76 ERA, 1.041 WHIP. But his body or his mind must have told him to cut a long term deal now when things are going well to take off any future financial pressures on his family.
The Nationals must believe that they got a star player at a market discount. But other teams see the revenue horizon being darker than today. Cable television model, which fueled the mega-local broadcast rights deals in the past few years, is going by the wayside. Younger fans consume their entertainment on demand and not by sitting to watch a designated game at a designated time on a designated channel. The big money spenders like ESPN have started to purge high priced talent and reign in expenses since their carriage charges are being balked at by the cable and satellite operators. In seven years, the MLB broadcast revenue could be cut in half which would make even Strasburg long term deal seem very expensive.
August 24, 2012
A TALE OF TWO ARMS
Sportswriter Tom Verducci has written extensively that if you give a young pitcher more than 30 innings more than he has ever pitched before, his chances of developing arm troubles increases or he takes a major step backward in his development. The anecdotal evidence of the risk of young arm injuries is about 67 percent using Verducci's methodology.
Teams have become obsessed with pitch counts and innings pitched for their starters. A starter who hits 100 pitches in a game is likely to be pulled from the mound. It is the assumption that like a machine, a pitcher only has so many built-in throws before his body starts to wear out.
Now, some older pitchers from the 1970s believe that the increase in pitcher injuries in the majors is not tied to innings pitched but on how players are being trained and conditioned from amateur to pro levels. Old school pitchers believed the more one threw, the stronger your arm would become. In addition, a pitcher would want to develop an "elastic" arm with strong leg action. Today, pitchers are into weight training routines that builds up and tones arm muscles which in some ways is the opposite of the old school way. In addition, throwing techniques have changed. Old school pitchers merely released the ball from their grip like a catapult shot. Now, pitchers are taught to "snap" their hands or wrists to add spin to the ball for sharper breaks around the plate. The snap motion puts more stress on a pitcher's elbow. That is why youth baseball teams do not allow their pitchers to even attempt to throw curve balls until the high school level.
This season we have two young star pitchers throwing their teams into the playoffs. But each team is handling their star starter differently.
The Nationals Stephen Strasburg is currently 15-5, 2.85 ERA in 145.1 IP. He is coming off arm surgery last season, which limited his major league innings to 24 and minor leagues to 20. He has added more than 100 innings of work this year, which puts him near the top of the Verducci watch list. As a result, the Nationals general manager has put a strict limit on IP for Strasburg: 180. Once he hits that mark, Strasburg will be shut down. It is projected that Strasburg will run out of innings with two weeks left in the season; he will miss the playoffs. Strasburg's success has been pivotal to the Nationals first place position. The Nats have overspent on starting pitching talent to go deep into the playoffs. But as fans know, success is fleeting at the major league level. Some teams (like the Cubs) may only get one shot at glory in a decade. When a team is on the cusp of a championship, it usually goes "all in" and does not think about "next year." But the Nationals are conserving Strasburg for future years.
The White Sox Chris Sale does not have any restrictions. He is currently 15-4, 2.65 ERA in 153 IP. Last year he pitched 71 innings in the majors. He also has gone past the Verducci number of increased IP. But the ChiSox are handling Sale much different than the Nationals with Strasburg. Sale has been given extended rest (skipped starts) during the season to "rest" his arm to avoid fatigue or "tired arm" syndrome. At the All-Star break, he was given around 10 days off. In September, he will get another 9-10 day break. The coaching staff has not limited his innings per start, as Sale continues to go deep into contests, especially when the games are close, In his last outing, he struck out a dozen Yankees.
What is different between these two young pitchers is more than just philosophy. Strasburg is the prototypical power pitcher. He has the large frame build that he leverages to overpower batters. Sale has the capacity of a 96 mph fastball that he showed as a reliever in 2011, but with his lanky frame, Sale has evolved into a pitcher rather than a thrower. Sale now uses an 88-93 mph fastball to punctuate his slider and change up.
The Nationals have counted on Strasburg to get them the divisional crown. The White Sox are counting on Sale to pitch them deep into the playoffs and possible championship series.
This will be the litmus test for future pitching decisions by major league clubs. Which procedure worked out the best for their team? Is shutting down a pitcher a better long term solution to the injury risk for a young arm, or is in-season rest stops the way to go? Teams may take the objective data from this season to formulate their own hybrid analysis for their young prospects.
Teams have become obsessed with pitch counts and innings pitched for their starters. A starter who hits 100 pitches in a game is likely to be pulled from the mound. It is the assumption that like a machine, a pitcher only has so many built-in throws before his body starts to wear out.
Now, some older pitchers from the 1970s believe that the increase in pitcher injuries in the majors is not tied to innings pitched but on how players are being trained and conditioned from amateur to pro levels. Old school pitchers believed the more one threw, the stronger your arm would become. In addition, a pitcher would want to develop an "elastic" arm with strong leg action. Today, pitchers are into weight training routines that builds up and tones arm muscles which in some ways is the opposite of the old school way. In addition, throwing techniques have changed. Old school pitchers merely released the ball from their grip like a catapult shot. Now, pitchers are taught to "snap" their hands or wrists to add spin to the ball for sharper breaks around the plate. The snap motion puts more stress on a pitcher's elbow. That is why youth baseball teams do not allow their pitchers to even attempt to throw curve balls until the high school level.
This season we have two young star pitchers throwing their teams into the playoffs. But each team is handling their star starter differently.
The Nationals Stephen Strasburg is currently 15-5, 2.85 ERA in 145.1 IP. He is coming off arm surgery last season, which limited his major league innings to 24 and minor leagues to 20. He has added more than 100 innings of work this year, which puts him near the top of the Verducci watch list. As a result, the Nationals general manager has put a strict limit on IP for Strasburg: 180. Once he hits that mark, Strasburg will be shut down. It is projected that Strasburg will run out of innings with two weeks left in the season; he will miss the playoffs. Strasburg's success has been pivotal to the Nationals first place position. The Nats have overspent on starting pitching talent to go deep into the playoffs. But as fans know, success is fleeting at the major league level. Some teams (like the Cubs) may only get one shot at glory in a decade. When a team is on the cusp of a championship, it usually goes "all in" and does not think about "next year." But the Nationals are conserving Strasburg for future years.
The White Sox Chris Sale does not have any restrictions. He is currently 15-4, 2.65 ERA in 153 IP. Last year he pitched 71 innings in the majors. He also has gone past the Verducci number of increased IP. But the ChiSox are handling Sale much different than the Nationals with Strasburg. Sale has been given extended rest (skipped starts) during the season to "rest" his arm to avoid fatigue or "tired arm" syndrome. At the All-Star break, he was given around 10 days off. In September, he will get another 9-10 day break. The coaching staff has not limited his innings per start, as Sale continues to go deep into contests, especially when the games are close, In his last outing, he struck out a dozen Yankees.
What is different between these two young pitchers is more than just philosophy. Strasburg is the prototypical power pitcher. He has the large frame build that he leverages to overpower batters. Sale has the capacity of a 96 mph fastball that he showed as a reliever in 2011, but with his lanky frame, Sale has evolved into a pitcher rather than a thrower. Sale now uses an 88-93 mph fastball to punctuate his slider and change up.
The Nationals have counted on Strasburg to get them the divisional crown. The White Sox are counting on Sale to pitch them deep into the playoffs and possible championship series.
This will be the litmus test for future pitching decisions by major league clubs. Which procedure worked out the best for their team? Is shutting down a pitcher a better long term solution to the injury risk for a young arm, or is in-season rest stops the way to go? Teams may take the objective data from this season to formulate their own hybrid analysis for their young prospects.
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