Comcast Sports is reporting that the Cubs are quietly trying to negotiate a contract extension with Starlin Castro. That is not unusual, since Castro will be finishing up his third season and would be arbitration eligible this off-season.
In the baseball process, a player who is under six years of playing time but has three years of service time can go into arbitration. The process is meant to get the player's agent and team to agree on a salary amount for the next season. But sometimes the sides are so far apart in the "valuation" that an arbitrator must decide in a winner take all format. The player submits his salary demand and the team submits its final offer. The arbitrator must decide between the two numbers. And during the arbitration hearing, it is the job of the agent to pump up his client's strengths, statistics and comparisons to other players (and their salary levels) while the team tries to diminish the player's attributes, skills and statistics. In bitter arbitration disputes, the player sometimes comes away with a negative attitude toward his club. Sometimes, the team is so offended by the player's demands, the player is dealt before the next season ends.
Castro is making around $575,000 this season. Under the general guidelines of the arbitration protocols, a first year arb player would get around 40% of the current average salary for his position; a second year arb player around 60% and a final third year player (such as Garza) would get around 80%. There are exceptions; if you are the best player at your position, like the Giants starter Lincecum, you can set the market.
The risk to the player is that going through the arbitration process is that it only guarantees a single year. If you get hurt, your career may be done. For the team, a contract extension locks in fix costs over the next several years for a player you want to keep on your team.
The average salary of the top 41 shortstops in baseball in 2012 is $3.12 million. Castro ranks #26 in shortstop salary. Under the general guidelines, it would be anticipated that in the first year of eligibility, Castro would get around $1.284 million for 2013, an increase of salary of 120%. However, the top 12 shortstops currently get paid $5 million plus, with Jeter on top at $16 million. The parties could be far a part in arbitration numbers based on how Castro perceives himself in the pantheon of current major league shortstops.
So the business side of the equation is whether a young player gives up years of arbitration for the security of a long term contract with a substantial raise, like a three year, $12 million deal.
But the flip side is if the Cubs can get a reasonable buy out of Castro's arbitration years, it makes him more valuable as a trade commodity to other teams. It would be highly unusual for the new Cubs to negotiate a no-trade provision in a Castro extension (the opposite of what Jim Hendry doled out freely as the former general manager).
At the very least, one would expect the Cubs and Castro to settle on a one year deal for 2013.
UPDATE: Other reports indicate that the Cubs and Castro's agent are talking a long term deal, which would take out his arbitration years and at least two years of free agency. The numbers being kicked around by pundits infer that the first three years could net $15-20 million and the first two years of free agency at $15 million each, or a total of a five year $50 million deal. A $10 million average would put Castro at #3 in pay for current shortstops (Jeter, Rollins, Reyes). Is Castro the third best shortstop in baseball? That is is subject to debate. He is certainly younger than the top three, but they have more accomplishments. That would be a huge commitment on a young player that has regressed this season at the plate.
